Atish Shah
Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead
Thank you, Barry. I would like to discuss two items this morning, first our balance sheet and second, our outlook for the remainder of the year and initial thoughts on next year. As to our balance sheet, we continue to be focused on having a strong balance sheet that allows us to execute on our growth strategy overtime. We recognized that the strong balance sheet is necessary to be opportunistic as evidenced by our ability to close on three acquisitions in October. Over the months ahead, we will focus on continuing to strengthen the balance sheet. Specifically, we intend to lower our leverage from its current level of approximately 4.2 times debt-to-EBITDA, which is pro forma for our October acquisitions. Our goal is to have a sub four times debt-to-EBITDA ratio by next year. Over the last several months, we've taken advantage of strong credit markets to pin to new allowance, we closed on a $100 million variable rate mortgage secured by the Renaissance Atlanta Waverly Hotel in August, recall that our basis in this hotel is approximately $110 million, so, we have effectively financed out our equity in the hotel. The loan matures in 2024, and bares a low interest rate of LIBOR plus 210 basis points. Second, we closed on a new $125 million, seven-year unsecured term loan. Subsequent to quarter end, we fixed the rate on this term loan through September 2022. The effective interest rate on the loan based on our current leverage is approximately 3.8%. Our current mix of debt is about 75% fixed and 25% floating. Our maturities continue to be quite manageable but no maturities schedule than 2018. In 2019, approximately $300 million of our debt matures but each of the maturity has an extension option. In addition, our fixed coverage ratio, pro forma for our recent acquisition is five times, another indicator of the strength of our balance sheet. Now, I'd like to turn to our revised guidance that we issued this morning. Now, in our guidance reflects the 39 hotels we own as of today. We raised our full year 2017 guidance to reflect stronger than expected RevPAR growth and better than anticipated margin performance. Our third quarter came in ahead of our prior expectation and we expect the fourth quarter to do so as well. This year has benefited from strong group business, in fact our full year group revenue pace is up over 4%. On the same property basis, we expect to earn $6 million more and adjusted EBITDA than we did when we last provide guidance. This $6 million is then offset by $3 million of anticipated negative impact in Key West and Napa, due to the natural disasters that affected each market. Thus, on a net basis, adjusted EBITDA is up $3 million. In addition, we're adding $8 million to reflect the earnings from the three hotels we acquired in early October. As a reminder, these hotels earn nearly $35 million on a full year basis. As a result of their seasonality they're expected to earn approximately $8 million total in the fourth quarter. We raised our adjusted FFO guidance for the year to $215 million to $221 million which is the result of the same factors, I just mentioned. In addition, we expect each of interest expense and income tax expense to be slightly higher due to recent financings and the acquisitions. We expect each to increase about $1 million relative to our prior guidance. An additional point to note related to our RevPAR guidance we increased the midpoint of our full year estimate by a 100 basis points. A portion of the increase relates the fact that the same property set has changed. As we noted in our earnings press release year-to-date RevPAR has increased 0.5% for the 39-hotel set on which revised guidance is based. Year-to-date for the 36-hotel set that we've reported on RevPAR grew 10 basis points. The other driver of RevPAR changes is revised expectation in Houston. We expect full year RevPAR at our Houston Hotels to be flat to down 2% in 2017 so still a decline but much less severe than what we had expected eight months ago. We are pleased with the stabilization of the Houston market that has resulted from the increasing demand following Hurricane Harvey. We are hopeful for the future but to recognize that some of the market demand that is filling select service hotels maybe short-term. Turning to hotel EBITDA margins, you'll recall that we began the year expecting margins to decline approximately a 150 basis points. We currently expect total EBITDA margins to increase slightly. We have been able to maintain margins by working with our operators to find opportunities for increased efficiency at our hotels. Let me now turn to some initial thoughts on next year. As you know our hotels are very much in the budgeting process, we have heard some of the larger operators provide initial thoughts on RevPAR outlook. It's too early to know how our hotels will compare to those much larger sets. Overall, we continue to feel good about our markets on a relative basis. We do not have much gateway to the exposure and have no hotels in several of the markets which are experiencing high levels of supply growth such as New York City, Miami, Los Angeles, Nashville and Seattle. We expect supply growth in our markets to pick up from this year, driven by supply growth in markets such as Portland, Savannah, Philadelphia and Denver. Overall, we expected to be in the approximately 3% range on a weighted basis next year and about the same in 2019. One of the indicators that we do have for next year is Group pace. We have approximately half of our business for 2018 on the books as of now. Our Group revenue pace is up in the low single-digit percentage range. We're hopeful that similar to 2017 this Group pace will sustain throughout 2018. As Barry mentioned we have significant renovation work beginning in the fourth quarter that will continue through the first half of next year we also have several additional projects later to begin in 2018. We're excited about the improvements throughout the portfolio. We have scheduled and paced the renovations and have minimized revenue disruption, but we believe that renovation related revenue disruption will be similar if not higher than that experiencing 2017. As we look ahead to 2018, we are hopeful that the Key West market will have recovered. At this point, we expect that revenues in the Napa market may still be negatively impacted into 2018. Turning to margins again, it's too early to make specific comments but what we can say is that we have been pleased by the level of margin growth we have seen this year. Year-to-date we have grown margins, and this is on top of margin growth for the first three quarters of 2016. Going forward, it will be more challenging to maintain our increased margins in a low RevPAR growth environment. Several factors are increasingly coming into play including the tightness in the labor market, high levels of occupancy across our portfolio, higher property taxes and less opportunities for asset management initiatives. One other point to note is that the seasonality of our earnings has changed due to the portfolio changes that we have made this year. We expect that the first quarter will have a much higher share of our full year earnings than in the past, our present our hotel EBITDA mix pro forma for all 2017 transactions is approximately as follows, over 25% in the first quarter nearly 30% in the second quarter and then the low 20% range for each of the third and fourth quarters. That concludes our prepared remarks this morning. We'll now open up the call to questions. Rachel, may we please have our first question?