Benjamin G.S. Fowke III - Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analyst · Ashar Khan with SAC Capital. Please go ahead
Thanks Paul and welcome everyone. Paul just mentioned our ongoing earnings were $0.51 per share for third quarter 2008, compared to $0.58 per share a year ago. As we noted in the prospective supplement for our equity issuance in early September, we expected earnings would decline for the quarter. There were a couple of items that benefited 2007 earnings that were not expected to recur in the third quarter of 2008. Most notably third quarter 2007 earnings were increased by about $0.08 per share, from a depreciation adjustment and warmer than normal temperatures. However, third quarter 2008 results were also negatively impacted by an erosion in residential sales, particularly at NSP-Minnesota. As a result, we are becoming more concerned about the overall economy and the potential impact of the financial crisis on our customers' behavior. I will discuss this impact in greater detail in a few moments. But let me start with the quarterly results. Third quarter 2008 ongoing earnings decrease by $0.07 compared to last year, largely due to lower electric margin, largely driven by an unfavorable weather comparison, and lower than expected sales growth, which decreased earnings by $0.04 per share, and higher depreciation expense which decreased earnings by $0.03 per share. Starting with the top of the income statement; electric margin decreased by about $28 million for the quarter, due to a combination of factors; although the most significant driver was an unfavorable weather comparison. On a positive side, an electric rate increase was constant, an interim rate increase in North Dakota and the rate rider [ph] combined to increase electric margin by $20 million this quarter. However, these increases were offset by a combination of items. An unfavorable weather comparison between the quarters reduced electric margin by $32 million or roughly $0.05 per share. We also experienced slower sales growth in the quarter. On a weather-adjusted basis, retail sales grew by only 1%. In addition, weather-adjusted residential sales actually declined 2.2% for the quarter, and within the C&I customer class we saw decline in small C&I sales offset by growths in our larger C&I class. And this is a trend we first discussed last quarter, and it appears to have continued and accelerated this quarter. As many of you know, residential sales provide a higher margin than the C&I class. Combination of lower sales growth and a change in sales mix resulted in no growth in electric margin for the quarter. On a year-to-date basis our total weather adjusted retail sales grew 1.8%. However, our residential sales growth was flat. This trend was not contemplated in our annual guidance. Generally electric sales growth of 2% across all customer classes will provide incremental earnings of about $0.06 per share on a year-to-date basis. However, the year-to-date combination of weather adjusted sales growth and customer mix have only increased earnings by about $0.02 per share. This represents an opportunity cost of $0.04 per share and has created an unexpected earnings drag. We have updated our sales forecast and unfortunately we expect this trend to continue into next year. Finally electric margin declined by $17 million due to the deferral of revenue associated with nuclear outage expenses. In the third quarter the Minnesota PUC approved our nuclear outage amortization request with certain modifications. The impact of the ruling was, for about half what we anticipated in our original guidance. The ruling reduced O&M expenses but was partially offset by revenue deferrals. For more information on the other items that had an impact on electric margin for the quarter please refer to our table in our earnings release. Moving on to O&M expenses third quarter O&M was essentially flat for the quarter. Increases in labor costs, consulting and generation costs; were offset by lower benefit costs, a change in our accounting for nuclear outage costs and various management initiatives. In light of the lower sales growth we have taken and will continue to take management actions to reduce O&M expenses. This includes lowering the accrual for incentive compensation. While we are taking steps reduce costs we will not sacrifice customer service or reliability. As a result of these actions we now project O&M expenses will be relatively flat for the full year. Next, third quarter depreciation and amortization expense increased $23 million or about 12%. As you recall, during the third quarter last year the Minnesota commission approved NSP-Minnesota's remaining life depreciation filing for the Monticello nuclear plant effective January 2007. This ruling reduced our third quarter 2007 depreciation expense by $31 million. This increase was partially offset by an updated depreciation study approved this year. That explains the significant quarterly deviation. Next, I want to touch on a couple of regulatory items. We have several pending rate cases that we have included an updated in our earnings release. We are also planning on filing cases in Colorado and Minnesota. In Colorado we are planning to file an electric rate case based on a forward test year. The timing of this case is subject to several factors. In particular we are looking at several different options for test years related to the cost recovery of Comanche 3, which is expected to come on-line in the second half 2009. We are also looking at filing an electric rate case in Minnesota. In Minnesota interim rates would go into effect 60 days after the rate filing. I know you have lots of questions about the Minnesota and Colorado rate cases. However, there's still a lot of moving pieces and I'm not in a position to provide too much color, since we're still in the process of determining the timing, size and scope of the cases. We anticipate having more clarity on the details in the coming weeks and we will provide with you an updated at either the EEI meeting or at our analyst meeting in December. I would like to spend a few minutes discussing how we've been successfully managing through the credit and liquidity crisis. We have always viewed conservative financial management as a strength. For the last several years I have discussed the importance of strong credit ratings, a solid balance sheet and good liquidity. While this philosophy hasn't always been in vogue, times have certainly changed. Over the last year we have been proactive, taking steps to strengthen our balance sheet and improve liquidity. For example, several years ago we entered into a multi-company five-year credit facility and then subsequently extended to 10-years. As a result our credit facilities don't mature until the end of 2011 Our combined credit facilities provide just under $2.2 billion of liquidity and that is after adjusting for the Lehman bankruptcy. In 2007 we completed a debt exchange for a $600 million bond at the holding company. This allowed us to reduce the amount maturing in 2010 and to extend a portion of the debt until 2017./ Earlier this year we issued a retail hybrid security at the holding company, prior to the closing of the hybrid market. We prefunded debt maturities and paid down short-term debt at NSP Minnesota, PSCo and NSP-Wisconsin, by issuing first mortgage bonds earlier in the year when rates were attractive. Finally we further strengthened our balance sheet by issuing equity in September before the markets collapsed. All of these actions improved our liquidity and reduced risk. At the end of this week we had a total liquidity of about $1.9 billion. In addition we have expanded our earnings release to provide additional information on our liquidity position. While we've taken proactive actions and have strong liquidity, the economy is having an impact on our results and probably other utilities. As I mentioned earlier, we experienced a slow down in electric sales growth during the quarter, particularly in the residential customer class. We currently are projecting that this trend will continue into the fourth quarter and 2009. In addition to the impact on sales growth we are closely monitoring other economic impact, including bad debt expense and interest rates for the potential impact on 2009 After we close the books on our third quarter results, we spent a great deal of effort on our forecast to reflect the changing economic conditions and trends. As a result, we now expect to be at that time low end of 2008 earnings guidance range of $1.45 to $1.50 per share. In past years, we've released our earnings guidance for the next year in conjunction with our third quarter earnings release. However, this year we plan to issue our 2009 earnings guidance at either BEI or our analyst meeting in December. This will allow us additional time to update our forecast for the potential rate cases and the latest economic trends. While we're not issuing guidance, I would like to provide some qualitative comments. We recognize that we are in uncharted waters, and expect 2009 to be a challenging year. We expect that the economic situation will continue to be bearish and that credit market will remain tight. So how will this affect Xcel Energy? While we don't view this as a long-term trend, we are currently projecting weather adjusted sales growth to be flat in 2009. We expect O&M costs will continue to rise. While there's been some recent moderation, commodity costs are still higher than historic levels; our rate-based growth plan increases the scope of our utility operations and our O&M expenses, and finally we expect bad debt expense will continue to be an area of concern. Our rate based growth strategy will also increase depreciation expense. Finally credit markets will remain tight and interest costs will be higher than historic levels. While some of these cost increases will be covered by write ups and forward-looking rate cases with interim rates, we aren't filing cases in all jurisdictions and there will be some regulatory lag. As a result, even with rate filings, we expect that our 2009 earnings will be only modestly higher than 2008 results. While we're still confident in our long-term strategy and growth objectives, we do anticipate next year's earnings growth will be below our historic rate as the nation adjusts to the new economic realities. Next let me spend a few minutes talking about our capital expenditures. As many of you know, we have a wide range of attractive investment opportunities. As we developed our plans, our projected capital forecast was above what we had previously shared with you. However, in the light of rising market volatility and the tightening of credit markets, we have decided to revisit these culinary [ph] plans. We continue to evaluate each of our project to determine an optimal level of spend, that enables our company to achieve our renewable growth goals, but also allows for flexibility in the current market conditions. We anticipate that once this evaluation is complete, our projected capital expenditure forecast will be consistent with what we've shared with you previously. In the coming weeks, we plan to finalize the details associated with our earnings guidance, capital expenditure forecast, and our rate plans. We plan to discuss this with you in detail at either BEI or at our analyst day in New York on December 3rd. Before turning the call over to you for questions, I would like to comment on just a few more items. In closing, the market uncertainty we've all witnessed is unprecedented. We believe we have successfully navigated this volatility and lowered our overall risk profile. To date we've raised over $2 billion with a combination of debt, hybrid, and equity issuances. Given these successful financings, we are well positioned to execute our growth plan into 2009. Strategy is working, pursuing clean energy allows Xcel Energy to meet increasing demand and reduce carbon with smaller less time-sensitive projects. This provides with us additional flexibility. Adding smaller renewable assets to the fleet will allow the company to push up the time line for a new base load investment for many years. Considering the projected costs with new base load plants and where credit markets are today, we are fortunate to have the flexibility. So in summary, while the economy poses challenges for us, I believe we are uniquely positioned and prepared to meet our strategic plans, environmental goals and long-term objectives. So with that operator, we'll take questions. Question and Answer