Earnings Labs

Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL)

Q2 2010 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 29, 2010

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Xcel Energy Second Quarter 2010 Conference Call. During today's presentation all parties will be in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation the conference will be open for questions. (Operator Instructions) This conference is being recorded today, Thursday, July 29, 2010. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Paul Johnson, Managing Director of Investor Relations and Assistant Treasurer. Please go ahead, sir.

Paul Johnson

Management

Thank you, and welcome to Xcel Energy's second quarter 2010 earnings release conference call. I'm Paul Johnson. With me today are Ben Fowke, President and Chief Operating Officer; Dave Sparby, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Teresa Madden, Vice President and Controller; Scott Wilensky, Vice President, Regulatory and Resource Planning; and George Tyson, Vice President and Treasurer. Today we plan to cover our second quarter results and provide a general business updates. Please note that there are slides that accompany the conference call, which are available on our web page. I want to remind everyone that some of our comments may contain forward looking information. Significant factors that could cause results to differ from those anticipated are described in our earnings release and our filings with the SEC. Today's press release refers to both GAAP and ongoing earnings. GAAP earnings for 2010 include a $0.01 per share benefit from discontinued operations, largely due to the recognition of previously unrecognized tax benefits. Our comments this morning will focus on ongoing earnings which do not include discontinued operation. A reconciliation of ongoing earnings per share to GAAP earnings per share is available in our press release. With that, I will turn the call over to Ben Fowke.

Ben Fowke

President

Thanks, Paul and welcome everyone. This morning we reported second quarter ongoing earnings of $0.29 per share compared with $0.25 per share in 2009. In a few moments Dave will walk you through the details of our quarterly results. But I'd like to start by saying after two strong quarters we remain on track to deliver ongoing earnings within our 2010 earnings guidance range of $1.25 to $1.65. Now let me bring you up today on some recent developments. In Colorado I'm pleased to report that (inaudible) went into service in May and achieve commercial operation earlier this month. The plant is certified at 802 net megawatts, which is above the expected output before 750 megawatts. I'm also pleased to note we continue to make solid progress on our CapEx 20-20 transmission project with construction now underway at our (inaudible) substation. In July, we received two of the five route permits needed in Minnesota for the project. Minnesota commission approved our application for the first segment of the Fargo line and for all but one section of the bookings line associated with the river crossing. We believe that we will be able to reach an agreement regarding this section, soon. Obviously, it takes a long time to build transmission lines and we've been very successful in all aspects of the process. It's really exciting to see construction actually begin. Another development that promises to benefit our customers is our plan to acquire two natural gas plants from Calpine for approximately $739 million. In May we filed a request with the Colorado Commission seeking approval of the acquisition and interim rate recovery of the revenue requirements associated with the plants. In July we received FERT regulatory approval of the transaction and the order imposes no conditions or modifications, other than routine…

Dave Sparby

President

Thanks, Ben. Let's start by reviewing second quarter results at each of our subsidiaries. Earnings, at (inaudible) increased $0.04 per share largely due to the rate increases in electric sales growth. Keep in mind PSCo's 2010 earnings for both the quarter and year-to-date periods reflect rate increases from both 2009 and 2010 electric rate cases. New rates associated with the 2009 rate case went into effect in July 2009. As a result, improvement in PSCo's earnings in the second half of the year will be driven primarily from the 2010 rate increase. At (inaudible), earnings decreasing by $0.02 per share largely due to higher O&M costs which offset electric sales growth. At SPS, earnings increased $0.02 per share due to the resolution of fuel cost allocation issues, new rates that went into effect in New Mexico July 2009 in electric sales growth. And finally, earnings were flat for the quarter for NSP-Wisconsin. Now I would like to discuss the drivers that affected various lines of the income statement beginning with retail electric margin. Electric margin increased $118 million for the quarter largely driven by rate increases in Colorado, and to a lesser extent south Dakota, New Mexico and Wisconsin. Together, these rate increases improved electric margin by $70 million. In addition to rate increases, other factors that improved second quarter electric margin included conservation revenue, which increased by $14 million, but is largely offset by higher conservation and DSM expense. A $11 million associated with the reversal of the fuel cost a indication regulatory reserves at SPS, $10 million from warmer than normal weather, $8 million from retail sales increases, excluding the impact of weather, and other factors which are detailed in our earnings release. Now in addition, I am pleased to note that our weather adjusted electric sales increased…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of [Ashar Khan] with Visium Asset Management. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Just to check in. Could you just remind when you come up with your Colorado I guess environmental plan? When is that expected?

Ben Fowke

President

We expect to file that August 13.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

August 13.

Ben Fowke

President

Yes.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

And then just on your financing, if I could understand it, you said you could be opportunistic, with your stock at a 52-week hike, and then you said it depended upon the timing of the Calpine acquisition. I was just trying to get a better sense as to if you wanted could you do something in the immediate future, or you have to wait for some more nods on the Calpine acquisition?

Ben Fowke

President

I'm, Ashar, really not going to elaborate beyond the prepared remarks in our script this morning on our equity issuance.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Daniele Seitz of Dudack Research Group. Please go ahead.

Daniele Seitz - Dudack Research Group

Analyst · Daniele Seitz of Dudack Research Group. Please go ahead

I was just wondering - could you explain the Minnesota re-opener and also the regulatory decisions that will be made regarding CapEx 20-20 just from the point of view of how does it go into rate base, etcetera?

Ben Fowke

President

What we have seen is the approval of our certificate of need, of our major lines here in the CapEx projects. Now we're currently recovering the cost of those projects through a rider mechanism and also as Ben spoke to we have received two of the very significant route permits that we were looking for with, you know, one segment of one of those lines, we have to yet clear up, and also, some of those certificates of need have been appealed and those appeals have been resolved. So we continue to advance on all fronts from a regulatory perspective and a cost recovery perspective.

Daniele Seitz - Dudack Research Group

Analyst · Daniele Seitz of Dudack Research Group. Please go ahead

And also, I was wondering if you could elaborate on the PSCo pipeline and storage and what is the outlook and that at this substituting?

Ben Fowke

President

It continues to operate this year, very much as planned with storage and transportation and we have been very please with what we have seen to date.

Daniele Seitz - Dudack Research Group

Analyst · Daniele Seitz of Dudack Research Group. Please go ahead

With some expansion expected in the future? What are your plans there?

Ben Fowke

President

I'm sorry Daniele…

Daniele Seitz - Dudack Research Group

Analyst · Daniele Seitz of Dudack Research Group. Please go ahead

Do you see any expansion in the future?

Ben Fowke

President

No, not at this point.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes are the line of Ali Agha with SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Please go ahead

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Analyst

Given where you ended up through the first half and your comments that July obviously is trending harder as well, is it fair to assume that probably more comfortable on the higher end of the range that you have laid out for us for this year?

Ben Fowke

President

Ali, I think you need to go back and look at that guidance, and understand that some of those lines of expenditures are not proportional to the quarter. And, you know, especially in northern utilities, O&M expenses are tilted a little bit more towards the third quarter, for example. Also, you go back and take a look at where we are on interest and depreciation, and you see some back-end waiting. So, we have had lesser expense in the first half. You will see us catch up a little bit in the second half of the year. We remain very comfortable with the guidance range though. And, among your larger utilities going into this year it appeared that Colorado electric was the one that appeared to be under earning relative to a lot of ROEs. You wonder rate increase that you have full year of '09 and then the '10 increase, is it fair to say that Colorado electric should pretty much earnings its authorized return this year?

Dave Sparby

President

We should get close to earning our authorized return.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Analyst

Okay. And last question. Whether David you or Ben would like to comment you folks are obviously fairly active with EEI, activities, and any recent read on how you thinking things are shaping up out of Washington, whether in regards to the dividend, tax, or, you know, the EPA regulations, any thoughts from your perspective?

Ben Fowke

President

This is the Ben. We're cautiously optimistic on the dividend, and I mean, what will obviously come down to is an overall tax bill and, hopefully, we can get that. As we all know that is very important for the business. As far as EPA goes, it is one of the reasons why we have tried to as an industry group get some comprehensive Federal legislation regarding climate change because we don't think the EPA approach is the right approach. And I think you have probably seen as we all have the death by thousand cuts or regulations that is out there with EPA is not great. I mean, as a company we're positioned pretty well for what came out just recently. But nevertheless, it is not the right way to go. But I think you're basically going to see gridlock on anything around that, for the foreseeable future. Hopefully, we won't see the same for the opportunity to reduce the dividend tax.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Analyst

From a CapEx perspective, then, can we expect any changes for '11 or even '12, what you're currently budgeting?

Ben Fowke

President

I will let Dave give you the details but I think the short answer is no.

Dave Sparby

President

Yes, the answer is no.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Leslie Rich with JPMorgan. Go ahead.

Leslie Rich - JPMorgan

Analyst · Leslie Rich with JPMorgan. Go ahead

You discussed in Wisconsin that you might file for a limited re-opener. And I wondered if you could just elaborate on the magnitude of that and what items you're looking to address?

Ben Fowke

President

I will let Scott Wilensky in charge of our regulatory area and is managing that filing speak to that.

Scott Wilensky

Analyst · Leslie Rich with JPMorgan. Go ahead

That is going to address the capital costs for production and transmission that we have planned to incur in 2011, as well as an update of our fuel expenses. We're going in the neighborhood of, relatively modest increase in the 3% to 6% range. We're still obviously finalizing things.

Leslie Rich - JPMorgan

Analyst · Leslie Rich with JPMorgan. Go ahead

Okay and you said you would be doing that in the third quarter?

Scott Wilensky

Analyst · Leslie Rich with JPMorgan. Go ahead

Early in August, yes.

Leslie Rich - JPMorgan

Analyst · Leslie Rich with JPMorgan. Go ahead

And that would be decided how quickly?

Scott Wilensky

Analyst · Leslie Rich with JPMorgan. Go ahead

We're hopeful that we will get a decision by the end of the year.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Dan Jenkins with State of Wisconsin Investment.

Dan Jenkins - State of Wisconsin Investment

Analyst · Dan Jenkins with State of Wisconsin Investment

I was wondering if you could give us any insights on what you're seeing economically in your service territories, you know, are you seeing some pickup in activity or place the read in Colorado and Minnesota and in the Southwest?

Ben Fowke

President

We have seen some pickup, but it has not been across the board. When we talked to you last quarter, what we were seeing was, some sectors who have continued to be strong, like energy, and other sectors, continuing to be weak, like services, agriculture, and food. But we have seen more of, in the second quarter is a pick up in some segments of manufacturing. Things like mining, some steel, some industries that make parts for automobiles. All pick up a little bit. But the increase in production and manufacturing has not been broad-based and that's why we have a bit more cautious outlook than maybe others do.

Dan Jenkins - State of Wisconsin Investment

Analyst · Dan Jenkins with State of Wisconsin Investment

And then I was curious, on your break down of the electric margin. You have one item is the retail sales increase, and then the other is sales mix and demand revenues. What's the distinction between those two items?

Ben Fowke

President

Well, what we see from time to time is a change in demand. (inaudible)And, that's often reflect of customers moving between classes, the particular tariffs into effect and how they are affected by ratchets and other items.

Dan Jenkins - State of Wisconsin Investment

Analyst · Dan Jenkins with State of Wisconsin Investment

Okay. Then the last thing I was curious, part of increase in the O&M was related to line outages and nuclear outages just kind of what's the schedule going forward. How do you expect that to compare, say, in the second half?

Ben Fowke

President

With respect to the outage schedule, it will say strong. As I talked about earlier, this is a point in the year when a fair amount of that is done. I think it's important to keep in mind when you look year-over-year this is a lot more normal summer for us. There was some things that we didn't have to do last year because it was much cooler. This year, the maintenance schedule, particularly that maintenance that's key to the run hours and the starts of a lot of units, is going to look much more like our historic spend pattern.

Dan Jenkins - State of Wisconsin Investment

Analyst · Dan Jenkins with State of Wisconsin Investment

As far as the nuke unites, what's that? Are there any outages planned in the second half and…

Ben Fowke

President

There is just one outage this year, Dan.

Dave Sparby

President

And Dan, just a point to remember is that we have a deferral and amortization that's it for nuclear outages. As a result of that what you see is a fairly levelized cost. Now, obviously if nuclear outages increase in cost that cost would be reflected. And there is a little bit of a pick-up in 2010 because we're starting to this is probably the last year of the step increase of making the accounting change.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Rudy Tolentino with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Rudy Tolentino - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Rudy Tolentino with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Just a kind of as a follow-up to Dan's question. Was there a part of the country in your service territory that had higher load increases than others? Was Minnesota stronger than Texas or Colorado? If you could give a little color on that?

Ben Fowke

President

Sure, Rudy. What we saw in first quarter was as we moved from south to north, and from west to east, we went from seeing recovery being above average to recovery being much closer to average. So, we saw recovery, and in fact the downturn being very slight in Texas. We've seen Colorado with an above average recovery. And what we've seen in Minnesota and Wisconsin parallels very much the national recovery.

Rudy Tolentino - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Rudy Tolentino with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Okay and then, speaking of Texas I know you send the Texas rate case 11.35 ROE and 51% equity ratios, which send a release as far as what you asked for. What is it currently?

Ben Fowke

President

Yeah. Scott, do you want to address that?

Scott Wilensky

Analyst · Rudy Tolentino with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Our last two rate cases in Texas have been achieved through black box settlements where those items have not been identified specifically. There really isn't an authorized ROE at this point.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes as a follow-up from the line of Daniele Seitz with Dudack Research Group. Please go ahead.

Daniele Seitz - Dudack Research Group

Analyst · Dudack Research Group. Please go ahead

In your August filing in Colorado will that also include assuming your plan is adopted, riders associated to different projects and will that also include the two gas plants that you just purchased or are the gas plants separate from in terms of rate consideration.

Ben Fowke

President

Daniele, the answer to that question is yes. The plan will include a regulatory recovery component.

Daniele Seitz - Dudack Research Group

Analyst · Dudack Research Group. Please go ahead

Okay and the gas plants will be part of it or are the new gas plants that you just purchased? Or are they going to be considered separately from the plan?

Ben Fowke

President

If you're referring to the Calpine plants that is proceeding under a different docket, and that's one that is to be resolved in October.

Daniele Seitz - Dudack Research Group

Analyst · Dudack Research Group. Please go ahead

Okay. And that will include the rate consideration as well?

Ben Fowke

President

Yes.

Operator

Operator

our next question comes from the line of Timothy Yee with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Timothy Yee - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst · Timothy Yee with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Do you have any sense of when you might get that third route permit on CapEx 2020 for that third line? I think it's (inaudible)?

Ben Fowke

President

Scott, do you have an answer?

Scott Wilensky

Analyst · Timothy Yee with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead

We're expecting that in the third quarter.

Timothy Yee - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst · Timothy Yee with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead

I guess what happens after the route permit as to when the construction begins for each of these lines and the timing of the investments for those lines?

Dave Sparby

President

We begin all of the classic instruction process require land for lay down yards, acquire any land that remains to be acquired and begin construction.

Ben Fowke

President

I think the ramp up, though, probably occurs a couple of years from now really when it relates to CapEx 2020 and continues…

Dave Sparby

President

Sure the span.

Ben Fowke

President

So if that's your question.

Dave Sparby

President

So kind of we are looking for a couple of years from now when the ramp up begins.

Ben Fowke

President

Transaction transmission will be a very big part of our capital profile as you get to the middle and latter part of the decade it's a result of all the years of efforts we've already put into project like CapEx 2020. It takes a very long time to get these things done.

Operator

Operator

And at this time there are no further questions in queue. I would like to turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

Dave Sparby

President

I want to thank everyone for attending our second quarter conference call. We look forward to seeing many of you on the road over the next several weeks. And if there are any follow up questions, Paul Johnson and the IR team are available to take your calls. Thank you.