Earnings Labs

Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL)

Q4 2005 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 3, 2006

$81.32

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

And welcome to Xcel Energy’s Fourth Quarter 2005 Earnings Release Conference Call. With me today is Benjamin Fowke, Vice President and CFO of Xcel Energy. Some of the comments that will be made contain forward-looking information, significant factors that could cause results to differ from those anticipated are described in our earnings release in Xcel Energy filings with the Securities and Exchange commission. I will turn the call over to Ben.

Benjamin Fowke, Vice President and CFO

Management

Thanks Dick, and welcome everyone. Xcel Energy recorded earnings from continuing operations of $1.20 per share for 2005, which was within our guidance range. This compares to $1.26 per share for 2004. Total earnings for 2005 were $1.23 per share compared with $0.87 per share for 2004. In 2005, we recorded earnings of $0.03 per share from discontinued operations, largely due to the final resolution of tax benefits associated with our divestiture of NRG. As a reminder, we recorded a loss of $0.39 per share in 2004 largely due to an asset impairment charge related to our Seren investments and a loss from the sale of Cheyenne Light Fuel and Power. Rest of my comments will be related to earnings from continuing operations. At the core of our company, we have our utility subsidiaries, which provided earnings of $1.27 per share for 2005 compared with $1.32 per share for 2004. Our utility earnings declined by $0.05 per share despite higher electric utility margins that increased earnings by $0.23 per share. The higher margins were offset by higher utility O&M expenses which decreased earnings by $0.12 per share, higher depreciation expense which decreased earnings by $0.09 per share, lower short-term wholesale margins which decreased earnings by $0.03 per share and a higher effective tax rate and other items which netted to decrease earnings by about $0.04 per share. Our holding company cost and results of other non-regulated companies reduced earnings by approximately $0.07 per share for 2005, which was comparable to a loss of $0.06 per share recorded last year. These costs are largely financing costs of the holding company. That summarizes our 2005 results, now lets look into the details. Our base electric utility margins increased by $163 million or $0.23 per share for 2005, largely driven by warm summer…

Operator

Operator

Operator Instructions

Operator

Your first question is from the line of David Parker, with Robert W. Baird.

Q - David Parker

Analyst · David Parker, with Robert W. Baird

Hi, good morning everyone. The question is on the Minnesota Rate Cases, is there a potential, or if you comment on the potential for settlement in that case or expect it to develop to the normal course?

A - Benjamin Fowke

Analyst · David Parker, with Robert W. Baird

Well we are just, I think we are in the discovery process now, so the settlement is always possible, but we do expect if it goes to the normal course that we have a decision, Dave, in the third quarter of this year.

Q - David Parker

Analyst · David Parker, with Robert W. Baird

Okay, so what you are looking for is probably a pull together, at least make initial rate case filed and then see where it goes from there, is that what we should expect?

A - Benjamin Fowke

Analyst · David Parker, with Robert W. Baird

Yeah.

Q - David Parker

Analyst · David Parker, with Robert W. Baird

Okay, and can you quantify, you just talked about the positives on the Colorado customers service thing, what would that be earnings per share kind of positive in ’06 versus ’05?

A - Benjamin Fowke

Analyst · David Parker, with Robert W. Baird

Well, we have been accruing some pretty significant penalties under the SETI measurements. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the accrual for 2005 with $30 million, prior year we had a significant accrual to, I can’t remember the exact, I think it’s $11 million. So, Dave we think that is real positive development, we put steel in the ground, replace cables, fix some things that have been causing the problem, get recovery of that $11 million and not have the penalties accruing. You know - I think its real sign of constructive regulatory treatment.

Q - David Parker

Analyst · David Parker, with Robert W. Baird

Yeah, I agree. Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from line of Paul Ridzon with Keybanc Capital Mkts/ McDonald.

A - Benjamin Fowke

Analyst · David Parker, with Robert W. Baird

Hi Paul. Q – Paul Ridzon: Good morning, how are you?

A - Benjamin Fowke

Analyst · David Parker, with Robert W. Baird

Good. Q – Paul Ridzon: Could you kind of quantify the ongoing level of rail disruptions kind of on a percentage of, what you normally would expect to receive?

A - Benjamin Fowke

Analyst · David Parker, with Robert W. Baird

Yes, since the disruptions started in May of last year, our deliveries have been basically about 80% of what we have nominated. And that trend pretty much has continued, sometimes it’s up, sometimes it’s down throughout the course. And you know, it is frustrating for us, we really thought we would see the deliveries being closer to a 100% of the nomination as we entered the winter season with some significant track repair behind us. But that’s not what’s happening. And as I mentioned, the railroads are telling us that we can expect some more delivery disruptions going forward, potentially. Q – Paul Ridzon: And kind of where does that leave your stock piles?

A - Benjamin Fowke

Analyst · David Parker, with Robert W. Baird

On a consolidated basis we are at, we averaged 23 days but there is some significant variance plant to plant, so what we had hoped to see Paul, in this winter season that we would actually be building the coal piles up in the more to the line of the 30-day range with not so much variances plant to plant and that hasn’t happened to date. We continue to work on it, one of the things we did on our end was to lease significant number of brand new aluminum rail cars. They are lighter, they can carry, I think it is 28% more coal than a typical steel rail car that will help, but you know the bottomline is, we need the delivery should be more equal to what we are nominating. Q – Paul Ridzon: And as you mentioned weather would be milder, is there any besides from regulatory sales, is there any potential offset that you are seeing with free capacity being able to market that in an increasingly gas priced market?

A - Benjamin Fowke

Analyst · David Parker, with Robert W. Baird

That is a great question, typically it will depend on market conditions. Keep in mind that we have seen some, the gas prices have softened as we entered ’06, but typically if your retail load is lighter than you expected, it does create some opportunities to sell more of your generation into the market. That’s what happened primarily in December of just last year. It created some nice short-term margins for us, but you need out of market condition to cooperate at the same time. Q – Paul Ridzon: And to what extent are you forced to limit that type of opportunities in the name of creating stock piles?

A - Benjamin Fowke

Analyst · David Parker, with Robert W. Baird

Well its, I think what you are referring to, if you don’t have as much coal resources, because you are either conserving or in the case what I have mentioned in the remarks, our King plant is being retrofitted as part of the Merck product. If you don’t have coal resources then you potentially can’t take advantage of those opportunities as well as we have in the past. Q – Paul Ridzon: And then just, in Colorado on the $30 million accrual for SETI, that you expect that to fully go away?

A - Benjamin Fowke

Analyst · David Parker, with Robert W. Baird

In ’06 we do, yes. Q – Paul Ridzon: Okay, that is net ’05 earnings? A – Benjamin Fowke: Yes, it is. That was a net 8 million because we had some adjustments for ’04, but that is the level of the accrual. Q – Paul Ridzon: Is that pre-tax or after-tax? A – Benjamin Fowke: That is pre. Q – Paul Ridzon: Thank you, very much, that’s all my questions.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Elizabeth Parrella with Merrill lynch.

Q - Elizabeth Parrella

Analyst · Elizabeth Parrella with Merrill lynch

Thank you. I wanted to ask a little bit about your retail sales, especially the residential sales, in which even on the weather to normalize basis we are pretty weak in 2005, and I know you have mentioned kind of the impact on consumption patterns from higher power prices particularly in Colorado. But wondering if you could just review with us, whether there is some other factors at work and is that something we should expect to continue into ’06? A – Benjamin Fowke: Well it’s a good question, Elizabeth. We continue to look at it, the sale, we did – you’ve recalled we did bring our sales assumption down in 2005 from our initial guidance, 2006 reflects what we were seeing in 2005, so we are comfortable with that assumption, there might be some conservation going on but we don’t think we are seeing significant demand destruction. What we have done, Elizabeth, is examine some of the fundamental economic indicators, you know housing, startups, unemployment, etc. And it is just a pretty good economy, so with the exception of gas sales that we do think we are seeing demand destruction, we don’t see that trend on the electric side. One of the things to keep in the mind is that we had a pretty warm summer in 2005, it was proceeded by a pretty mild summer in 2004. Sometimes our weather normalization model don’t capture that maybe as well as they should, we are looking at that. We don’t see if see a significant long-term trend, we are not concerned about overall decline in electric sales. But we are going to watch it.

Q - Elizabeth Parrella

Analyst · Elizabeth Parrella with Merrill lynch

And also you mentioned what the bad debt expense number was in 2005, I think it was $48 million? Is it comparable 2004 number? A – Benjamin Fowke: Yes, we think 2006 bad debt expense will fall off to about $35 million. 2004 was at the $28-29 million level. So we are kind of splitting the difference there, two things to think about, Elizabeth. We will continue to be in a high fuel environment, so we do think bad debt expense, it will continue to be relatively high. But we don’t think we will see bad debt expense at the level of 2005 for two factors. One, that kind of it was a rush we think for some of our customers to get ahead of the new bankruptcy laws. The new ones I guess are more conservative. And the second thing is, internally, we put a lot more focus and attention on our processes and I am confident that’s going to pay some dividend for us in ’06.

Q - Elizabeth Parrella

Analyst · Elizabeth Parrella with Merrill lynch

Okay. And one last question if I may. Do you have the, where operating cash flow and CapEx came in for ’05 and how that might have compared with your projections? A – Benjamin Fowke: It came in pretty close to our projections, cash from operation on a total basis was $1.2 billion and cash from continuing operation was $1.1 billion. CapEx came in about what we were thinking too, Elizabeth, at $1.3 billion.

Q - Elizabeth Parrella

Analyst · Elizabeth Parrella with Merrill lynch

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Stephen Hsang with Citigroup. A – Benjamin Fowke: Hi, Steven.

Q - Stephen Hsang

Analyst · Stephen Hsang with Citigroup

Hi, good morning. Question I had here was on back to the PRD question. With the delays continuingly going on right now, you guys don’t anticipate then based on what you are seeing, that you will be able to get back to that more or less 30 days, kind of above stock pile before summer? A – Benjamin Fowke: We are going to do everything we can to get back to that 30 days. That’s where we would like to be and we are working very closely with the railroads to get the nominations that we want, but it is an issue for us and that’s why, if we can’t get the deliveries we might have to continue to do some mitigations. That, it follows going 2005.

Q - Stephen Hsang

Analyst · Stephen Hsang with Citigroup

That reminds me, with the mitigation plan, does that include going into the market and buying purchase power? A – Benjamin Fowke: It includes that, it includes in some cases switching from coal to gas, we have that ability in some of our plants to do that. It includes changing some of the dispatch orders, so essentially we are not using your coal plants as much as you will, you are using gas plants as an alternative to save coal.

Q - Stephen Hsang

Analyst · Stephen Hsang with Citigroup

Alright. And the new rate case there, is that more of that federal approved or the like, can you just remind me where can you get trued up on the purchase power, is that all your jurisdiction or are there areas where you still going to eat the cost? A – Benjamin Fowke: Well, those purchases, are you talking about purchase that we might make for coal mitigation?

Q - Stephen Hsang

Analyst · Stephen Hsang with Citigroup

Right, for a customer. A – Benjamin Fowke: Those would be considered energy purchases and they would flow through the fuel cost, I think you are familiar with that fuel cost recovery mechanisms.

Q - Stephen Hsang

Analyst · Stephen Hsang with Citigroup

Basically, all that really is that your potential all systems sales, which has declined significantly if you were to go back into mitigation for this year? A – Benjamin Fowke: It could impact that, yes.

Q - Stephen Hsang

Analyst · Stephen Hsang with Citigroup

Okay. And then the January weather, was just the $0.03 you are talking primarily due to the gas business, right? A – Benjamin Fowke: It’s gas and some electric. I mean there is, I mean, when you kick on your furnace there is some electric component to that. It’s really been I think I read in the paper here its one that’s Minnesota we are now 160 years, I haven’t lived in Minnesota that long but I don’t think it typically rained in January, and it did in my house couple of nights ago.

Q - Stephen Hsang

Analyst · Stephen Hsang with Citigroup

And, but you guys aren’t changing your weekend sales forecast because of any of that, I mean I know you have worked in all places? A – Benjamin Fowke: No, no we are not.

Q - Stephen Hsang

Analyst · Stephen Hsang with Citigroup

Okay, all right great thank you.

Operator

Operator

Once again if you’d like to ask a question please press “*” then your number “1” on your telephone keypad. The next question is from the line of Maura Shaughnessy with MFS. A – Benjamin Fowke: Hi. Q – Maura Shaughnessy: Good morning. Just hoping on this coal issue again, I guess we talked about the rails there, incidentally more offbeat than the reality that you guys are portraying, what is the issue since it’s been on the highlight so to speak since last spring. What is the problem that has created the continuation of this theme? A – Benjamin Fowke: I wish we could get more of some of their offbeatness in the form of coal with relative to our plans and that’s really what we want. You know originally it was the deteriorated rail track, which meant that the cars have to slow down significantly, they did a lot of work on those tracks prior to winter. When winter sets in what we were anticipating based upon conversations with the railroads that the track will basically firm up because of the frozen ground and we could pretty much expect normal deliveries but that hasn’t happened, there been a number of issues that the railroads have talked about mines, issues with mining, labor, what have you, but most recently they’ve mentioned that there is more to demand than there is supply. And that’s why we’ve reported that we have to continue the look at this. I think we’ve done absolutely everything we can, working with our commissions to do that. But we need the coal from the railroads and we’re going to do everything we can to get it. Q – Maura Shaughnessy: And setting forth your guidance for ‘06, this was known in terms of the coal inventory situation when that guidance was set. How should we think about you know there was some offsets probably the rate cases when better than expected or what have you that you didn’t materially change guidance despite the situation on the fuel side. How should we think about that? A – Benjamin Fowke: Well, we’ve had some ups and downs, I mean the thing down mostly is whether we continue to execute on our regulatory plan and that’s what I believe drives long-term growth for us. On the coal side the thing that we’ll be watching and will be working real hard to mitigate is the potential impact it could have on ECA recovery mix, incentive mechanism in Colorado, we’ve earned pretty much at close to the top of that incentive mechanism, which is $11 million pretax over the last couple of years. The mitigation, this overall increases in coal prices, that is going to put some downward pressure on that. It’s one of several different variables. Q – Maura Shaughnessy: Okay great, good luck. A – Benjamin Fowke: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We have a follow-up question from the line of Elisabeth Parrella with Merrill Lynch. Q – Elisabeth Parrella: Just a little follow-up on the last question actually, how much did you earn under the Colorado incentive mechanism in 2005, because I thought at one point you were building in something that was fairly neutral but it sounds like maybe you did a little better than you have expected? A – Benjamin Fowke: We did, we came out at $8.5 million, Elisabeth for ‘05. Q – Elisabeth Parrella: Okay. And in terms of your guidance have you build-in sort of a similar amount or…? A – Benjamin Fowke: Well the first thing is that the guidance is what we came out in the third quarter $1.25 to $1.35, which is just one of the multiple variables that we look at. I tell you the biggest sensitivity obviously is the Minnesota electric rate case and that’s the one I think ultimately swings the needle the most. Q – Elisabeth Parrella: Okay thank you.

Operator

Operator

At this time there are no further questions.

Benjamin Fowke, Vice President and CFO

Management

Alright, well I want to thank everybody for participating on the call this morning, look forward to meeting many of you throughout the year. As a reminder if you have any follow-up questions, Dick Kaufman and Paul Johnson will be available to take your calls. Thank you.