Devin Stockfish
Analyst · Raymond James.
Yes, let me start with the Western harvest levels. Now, really to understand what's going on in the West, you have to go back to our Longview Timber acquisition, and you’ll recall that when we did that deal, one of the benefits of that transaction was that they had a significant amount of over matured timber in their portfolio. And so, for several years after that acquisition, we were intentionally bringing that harvest level or harvest age down, which increased our harvest levels in the West. Over the last couple of years, we’ve really been on the tail-end of that. And so, as we roll into 2020, you know, that volume that we’re anticipating in the West, which is, you know, down around 3% versus 2019, you know, that's what I would expect all else being equal to be the harvest levels for the next several years before it starts coming up again. And so, that's really the answer on the harvest. Now, you know, frankly you can flex up or flex down a little bit depending on market conditions, and we do that from time-to-time, but, you know, the 2020 harvest schedule really is kind of that normalized harvest level in the West for the next several years. You know, speaking to the export markets, and I’ll start with China, you know, really last year, for most of the year, even though, you know, there was more European salvage wood coming into the market, I would say, for the first three quarters it wasn't having a material impact on our export volumes to that China market out of the Northwest. We really did see in the fourth quarter that European salvage wood started to have an impact in the China market, and we really started to see that impact, you know, our pricing certainly as we got deeper into the fourth quarter. You know, as we think about the magnitude of that European salvage wood going into the market and you combine that with what is traditionally a pretty slow time of the year with the Lunar New Year holiday in that market, and you also have the dynamic of the coronavirus and so, you know, I would expect the China market for us out of the Pacific Northwest is going to be choppy for a little while. The Japan market, you know, frankly, remains solid for us. You’ve seen housing starts dip down just a little bit, but the key market for us, as I mentioned earlier, is that post and beam market, and that's held up pretty well and you combine that with some of the challenges from the Canadian log exports, we’re still seeing good volume and sales activity into the Japan market this year.