Operator
Operator
Good morning. My name is Brent and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Weyerhaeuser Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call over to Denise Merle, Vice President of Human Resources and Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Denise M. Merle - Senior VP-Human Resources & Investor Relations: Thank you, Brent. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today to discuss Weyerhaeuser's fourth quarter 2015 earnings. On the call with me this morning are Doyle Simons, CEO; Patty Bedient, CFO; and Beth Baum, Director of Investor Relations. This call is being webcast at www.weyerhaeuser.com. Our earnings release and presentation materials can also be found on our website. Please review the warning statements in our press release and on the presentation slides concerning the risks associated with forward-looking statements, as forward-looking statements will be made during the conference call. We will discuss non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of GAAP can be found in the earnings material on our website. I will now turn the call over to Doyle Simons. Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Denise, and welcome, everyone. For the past two years, we've been relentlessly focused on making Weyerhaeuser a truly great company by pulling three key levers to drive value for shareholders: portfolio, performance and capital allocation. In 2015, we've made significant progress in each of these areas. We announced two transformational portfolio changes, a merger with Plum Creek that will create the world's premier timberland and forest products company and the exploration of strategic alternatives for our Cellulose Fibers business. We maintained a relentless focus on improving our relative performance and delivered on our second set of annual operational excellence targets. And importantly, we delivered on our commitment to return cash to shareholders. We increased our dividend by 7%, and we repurchased nearly $520 million of common shares in 2015. Despite ongoing headwinds related to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and global macroeconomic uncertainty, we remain focused on what we could control. And for the fourth quarter, our business has once again delivered solid operating results. Weyerhaeuser reported fourth quarter net earnings of $59 million or $0.11 per diluted share on net sales of $1.7 billion. Excluding special items, we earned $121 million or $0.24 per share. Our primary special item for the fourth quarter was a non-cash asset impairment in our newsprint equity affiliate. Additional items included costs for the Plum Creek merger and the closure of several distribution centers, and a tax benefit from the expiration of our built-in gains period. I will begin the discussion of our fourth quarter business results with some brief comments about the housing market. The housing market maintained positive momentum in the fourth quarter as favorable weather conditions enabled building activity to continue through December in many areas of the country. Single-family housing starts improved in the quarter and ended the year up 10% compared with 2014. Total U.S. housing starts ended 2015 at just over 1.1 million, an improvement of 11% compared with last year. For 2016, we expect steady moderate growth in the U.S. housing market. We are planning for just over 1.2 million housing starts in an increasing single-family share. With improving job growth and historically low interest rate, U.S. economic fundamentals support a continuing recovery. Despite some headwinds from labor constraint and falling oil prices, builder sentiment remains extremely strong. Most of our customers tell us they are planning for 2016 growth rate in the low-double digits. Let me now turn to our business segment results, starting with Timberlands, charts 3 to 5. Timberlands contributed $134 million to fourth quarter earnings, an improvement of $8 million compared with the third quarter. In the West, fee harvest volumes rose seasonally as we exited the third quarter fire season, and average log realizations increased due to a greater percentage of export sales. Each of our export markets improved during the quarter. Log sales volumes to Japan increased and prices rose modestly as a solid Japanese housing market continues to drive demand. So the full-year 2015, Japanese win housing starts grew by 3%. In China, log inventories at the ports declined throughout the fourth quarter as many suppliers curtailed shipments in response to weak third quarter pricing. Although overall Chinese market demand remained relatively flat compared with the third quarter, average realizations for our China export logs increased and sales volumes rose as we flexed volume to take advantage of opportunities created by the tighter Chinese inventory situation. In Western domestic markets, log supply and demand remained balanced during the quarter. Realizations for our Western domestic logs declined slightly to a greater mix of hemlock and other whitewood. The flooding experienced in some regions of Washington and in Oregon during December had no significant effect on our operations or infrastructure. In the South, heavy rainfall did affect harvest operations in select wood baskets, but fee harvest declined only 3% compared with third quarter as our Southern Timberlands teams did an outstanding job of flexing harvest settings in response to weather conditions. Although overall market conditions were stable, realizations for our Southern logs declined slightly, due to a shift in geographic mix. Silviculture and forestry expenses declined due to cost control initiatives and weather-related constraints. Fourth quarter included earnings of $19 million from disposition of non-strategic timberlands, an increase of $6 million compared with the third quarter. Wood Products, chart six and seven. Wood Products contributed $48 million to fourth quarter earnings before special items compared with $85 million in the third quarter. Special items for the fourth quarter included a pre-tax charge of $8 million for the closure of four distribution centers, as we continue to improve the cost structure of that business. Adjusted EBITDA before special items for the Wood Products segment declined to $75 million in the fourth quarter, as seasonally lower sales volumes and lower operating rates more than offset improved realizations for oriented strand board. In lumber, EBITDA was $22 million lower compared with the third quarter. Average realizations declined 3% and sales volumes fell 9%. Operating rates declined and unit manufacturing cost rose due to increased downtime, primarily for installation of capital projects that will continue to reduce cost within our Southern lumber system. In OSB, EBITDA improved by $13 million, primarily due to a 14% increase in average sales realizations. This improvement was partially offset by a 7% reduction in sales volumes and higher unit manufacturing costs due to planned maintenance downtime. Engineered Wood Products reported fourth quarter EBITDA of $14 million compared with $36 million in the third quarter. Operating rates declined due to downtime for major maintenance, capital projects, and seasonal holiday shutdowns. Sales volumes declined seasonally, and average realizations were lower due to mix. EBITDA for the distribution business declined compared with third quarter due to seasonally lower sales volumes. Cellulose Fibers, charts eight and nine. Cellulose Fibers contributed $64 million to fourth quarter earnings before special items compared with $79 million in the third quarter. Fourth quarter results included a non-cash pre-tax charge of $84 million for the asset impairment in our newsprint equity affiliate. Pulp prices remained under pressure during the fourth quarter due to continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Average pulp realizations declined compared with the third quarter, and maintenance expense increased due to additional scheduled maintenance outage dates. Fourth quarter included eight days of scheduled maintenance outages compared with four days in the third quarter. These factors were partially offset by improved sales volumes and strong operating performance. Pulp production rose compared with the third quarter despite the increase in scheduled maintenance outage days and several of our mills set operating records. For example, our Columbus, Mississippi mill operated at nearly 100% reliability in the quarter. I will now turn it over to Patty to discuss our first quarter outlook, and then I'll follow up with some specific comments on operational excellence. Patricia M. Bedient - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks, Doyle, and good morning, everyone. The outlook for the first quarter is summarized on chart 12. Now, this outlook does not incorporate the merger with Plum Creek. We'll include Plum Creek results after the transaction closes. I'll begin my comments with Timberlands. In the West, export demand from Japan is expected to remain strong, and we anticipate a slight improvement in pricing. The strength of the U.S. dollar continues to dampen significant price increases. Sales volumes to Japan are expected to increase more than 5% in the quarter. Our volumes and realizations for log sales to China are anticipated to increase modestly. We anticipate a slight increase in Western domestic sales realizations as lumber prices are expected to improve later in the quarter. Fee harvest in the West is expected to be comparable to the fourth quarter. In the South, sales realizations are expected to decrease slightly due to mix. Sales volumes will be lower as wet weather contributes to the typical seasonal decline in fee harvest. Earnings from non-strategic land sales are anticipated to be roughly $10 million lower than the fourth quarter. Overall, we expect earnings in our Timberlands segment to be comparable to the fourth quarter. In Wood Products, lumber average sales realizations are anticipated to increase in the first quarter compared to the fourth, although prices have not improved thus far. Realizations for our other product lines as well as overall sales volumes are expected to be roughly comparable to last quarter. We expect less downtime from planned maintenance and capital projects compared to the fourth quarter. And as a result, average unit manufacturing cost should decrease. Channel inventories remain low, with customers generally purchasing for immediate needs. As we enter the spring building season, we do expect to see business improve. We anticipate that overall earnings on our Wood Products segment will be higher in the first quarter compared to the fourth and slightly higher than the first quarter of 2015. In Cellulose Fibers, global softwood pulp inventories as of the end of the fourth quarter were at 29 days, down slightly from the 30 days at the end of the third quarter. This is at the high end of balanced inventory levels. We expect that average sales realizations and volumes for our pulp products will weaken during the first quarter due to continued currency headwinds and the normal effect of the Chinese New Year. Our liquid packaging operation will begin its planned maintenance outage this quarter, and as a result, we expect maintenance expense for this segment will increase significantly compared to the fourth quarter, which had fewer overall maintenance days. We anticipate that earnings in our Cellulose Fibers segment will be significantly lower than the fourth quarter of 2015 and roughly comparable to the first quarter of last year. Now, I'll wrap up with some overall financial comments, and I'll refer to chart 11 for these discussions. Cash from operations totaled $339 million in the fourth quarter, an increase of $57 million from the third quarter. Capital expenditures for the fourth quarter were $174 million, bringing our total expenditures for the full year to $483 million, well within our earlier guidance of $500 million. Looking ahead to 2016, we expect total expenditures for the full year to be down slightly from 2015, subject to the outcome of the strategic review for Cellulose Fibers and the transaction with Plum Creek. At the end of the quarter, we had cash of just over $1 billion and we do not have any scheduled debt maturities in 2016. Now, I'd like to update you on the status of our retirement benefit plans. The year-end 2015 funded status of our defined benefit pension plans and post-employment retirement plans improved by approximately $400 million compared to year-end 2014. This improvement was primarily the result of the increase in discount rates. We did not make any cash contributions to the U.S. qualified pension plan in 2015 and we don't anticipate any cash contributions for that plan this year. Cash paid for all other pension and other post-employment retirement plans in 2015 was approximately $80 million. We expect spending in 2016 to be approximately $60 million. Chart 14 in the appendix details the pension expense by business for 2015. Total expense in 2015 was approximately $42 million, and in 2016, we expect the total amount will be income of approximately $5 million. So with that, I'll turn the call back to Doyle. Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Patty. I'd now like to switch gears and provide an update on our operational excellence efforts. Throughout the year, each of our businesses remained relentlessly focused on achieving their respective operational excellence targets. Achieving these targets is not easy. They're designed to stretch a business to deliver a step change and relative performance, and that's exactly what is happening through a lot of really good work by our employees. Chart 13 highlights our OpEx accomplishments for 2015 and our annual target for 2016. The Timberlands business delivered $39 million of operational excellence improvement in 2015, exceeding its target of $20 million to $30 million. These results were primarily driven by cost efficiency in three key areas. First, harvest and haul cost. We're continuing the implementation of centralized dispatch systems to improve the efficiency of logging and trucking contractors and replacing costly cable logging with steep slope technologies. Second, spending on forest roads. We're adjusting the volume of rock relay during road construction and the level of road maintenance to match expected vehicle travel patterns and local weather conditions. Finally, silvicultural cost. Data we have collected on tree stand growth patterns enable us to custom-tailors silviculture prescriptions to apply pruning and hardwood control only to acres where those activities generate an optimal financial return. With total OpEx improvements of $64 million since 2013, the Timberlands business has achieved the $50 million to $70 million improvement goal we established two years ago. However, we are not done. For 2016, we are targeting an additional $20 million to $30 million of OpEx improvements from our existing Timberlands holdings. This does not include the benefit we will get from applying our OpEx efforts to over 6 million acres of Plum Creek lands. The Lumber business achieved $21 million of improvements in 2015, meeting its target of $20 million to $25 million. Primary drivers include improvements in reliability and process efficiency and rigorous cost management as we continue to drive down our cost net of logs. Each mill is focused on maintaining consistent throughput and improving uptime by resolving process and equipment issues that create bottlenecks or stop production. Capital expenditures for the Lumber business increased in 2015 as we invested in low-risk, high-return projects to further improve the cost structure of our mills. These projects include auto graders and continuous dry kilns. We will capture the full benefits from several of these investments in 2016. With cumulative improvements of over $40 million since 2013, the Lumber business is nearing halfway on its journey to $100 million of controllable manufacturing cost reductions. For 2016, the business is targeting OpEx improvement of $15 million to $20 million. Oriented strand board delivered $24 million of OpEx improvement in 2015, exceeding its target of $10 million to $15 million. Results were driven by improving reliability as our mills focused on eliminating sources of downtime and recovering efficiently from outage events; lowering wax and resin costs as we optimize recipes for multiple products; and increasing our mix of higher-margin products such as flooring. With cumulative improvements of $34 million, the OSB business is more than halfway to its $60 million goal. The business is targeting another $15 million to $20 million of OpEx improvements in 2016. For Engineered Wood Products and Distribution, we set specific bottom-line EBITDA improvement target for 2015 as those businesses remain focused on turnaround performance. Engineered Wood Products improved full-year EBITDA by $35 million compared with 2014, significantly exceeding its $15 million to $20 million target. Each mill maintained a rigorous focus on reducing unit manufacturing cost for all products. For example, maintenance team shared best practices across the mill system, increasing reliability and reducing cost. Engineered Wood Products has made a substantial improvement since 2013. Over the past two years, this business has increased annual EBITDA by almost $70 million, proving that it has the ability to perform. Our focus now is continuing to improve relative performance versus the competition. The 2016 goal for this business will not be a bottom line EBITDA target, but an OpEx improvement target of $10 million to $15 million. Distribution improved full-year EBITDA by $8 million in 2015. The business fell short of its $20 million to $30 million improvement target as it was unable to overcome between effect of severe winter weather early in the year and lower than expected demand in the first half of 2015. 2015 OpEx improvements were largely attributable to improved product margins and reductions in head count, warehouse and delivery expenses. Improvements made to the Distribution cost structure during 2015 have created a stronger foundation for better operating performance next year. In 2016, the distribution business is targeting bottom line EBITDA improvement of $15 million to $20 million. Cellulose Fibers. Cellulose Fibers delivered operational excellence improvements of $47 million, significantly exceeding its $30 million to $35 million target. Improvements were primarily attributable to lower energy costs, driven by our new turbine generator at our Flint River mill and a boiler conversion at Columbus and reduced usage of key chemicals as several mills-adjusted processes are tied to their digesters and bleach plants. During 2016, Cellulose Fibers is targeting improvements of $40 million to $50 million. With OpEx improvements of $75 million to-date, this would enable the business to exceed the $100 million goal established in 2013. I'll also mention the reduction in our SG&A. Part of our commitment to operational excellence is having the right cost structure across our company. Two years ago, we committed to reduce SG&A about $75 million and achieve that run rate by the end of 2014. Last year, we told you we had delivered on that commitment, and you can see our performance in this year's results. Compared with 2013, we have reduced our SG&A by over $100 million. Success in achieving our OpEx target was a critical component of Weyerhaeuser's 2015 financial performance, enabling us to offset pricing headwinds in many of our markets. In Timberlands, weaker year-over-year pricing for Western logs created a headwind of over $100 million. By exceeding its operational excellence target, the Timberlands business was able to overcome nearly half of that deficit. Lower year-over-year realizations of 11% for lumber and 9% for OSB created a headwind of over $250 million for Wood Products earnings. However, the segment captured nearly $100 million of operational excellence improvement, significantly mitigating the effect of these lower prices and earnings for Wood Products declined less than $70 million on a year-over-year basis. Cellulose Fibers made the headwind of over $100 million from declining pulp prices, higher fiber cost, and the effects of the West Coast port slowdown. The business offset nearly half of this amount through its OpEx efforts. Looking forward to 2016, our relentless focus on operational excellence remains a key component of our commitment to improve our relative performance and drive value for shareholders. I will close this morning with some brief comments on our merger with Plum Creek and the strategic review of our Cellulose Fibers business. The joint proxy and registration statement associated with our announced merger with Plum Creek was declared effective by the SEC on December 28. Both ISS and Glass Lewis have recommended that shareholders vote in favor of the proposals. The shareholder vote will be held on February 12 and we anticipate closing the merger in the first quarter. Our joint integration team is making excellent progress as we define staffing needs, establish plan for cost synergy, and position the merged company for a smooth and successful day one. The review of Cellulose Fibers is proceeding well and we look forward to sharing more information with you when that review is complete. As we enter 2016, I'm excited about the opportunities in front of us. Although the first few weeks of the year have been characterized by market turbulence and global macroeconomic concerns, I am encouraged by the positive trend in U.S. housing and the optimistic tone we are hearing from our customers. Our portfolio changes and operational improvements are positioning Weyerhaeuser to drive long-term value for shareholders. We will remain relentlessly focused on operational excellence and disciplined capital allocation, and I look forward to sharing our continued progress with you. And now, I'd like to open up the phone for questions.