Patrica Bedient
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thanks, Larry, and good morning, everyone. We expect to return to profitability in the second quarter. While risks remain and there is still a feel of uncertainty about the housing market as Larry just discussed, it would appear that we are in the early stages of an economic recovery. I'll begin the outlook with Timberlands. In the West, export and domestic log prices are expected to increase, partially offset by a lower export grade mix. In the South, we anticipate that a slight increase in pricing will also be offset by a lower grade mix. Fee harvest volume in the West is expected to increase modestly in the second quarter. However, fee harvest in the South will likely be lower compared to the first quarter as harvest was pulled forward from the second quarter due to adverse weather conditions. So the culture and road cost should be seasonally higher in the second quarter. In addition, in the South, the first quarter weather-related delays in silver cultural activities will likely result in increased spending for the second quarter. Excluding the effect of Timberland dispositions, we anticipate that overall earnings in the Timberlands segment will be somewhat lower in the second quarter compared to the first as higher log prices are offset by increased costs and lower earnings from fee harvest. Moving on to Wood Products. Thus far in the second quarter, prices have continued to increase. And we expect that compared to the first quarter, sales realizations in all product lines will improve. Although sales volumes are still weak by historical standards, we anticipate significant increases compared to the first quarter with sales volumes increasing by approximately 25% on lumber, 40% in OSB and in engineered lumber, anywhere from 20% to 35%, depending on the product. Raw material costs are expected to increase somewhat due to higher log costs. Manufacturing unit cost should improve, as production increases to meet higher seasonal demand. We expect the Wood Products segment to be profitable in the second quarter. In Cellulose Fibers, average sales realizations are expected to increase significantly, driven by the continued industry supply disruptions due to the Chilean earthquake, as well as strong demand from Asia. Pulp shipment volumes are expected to increase slightly. We will likely experience higher cost for ocean freight and slightly higher maintenance costs in our pulp mills as the second quarter has a slightly higher amount of scheduled maintenance downtimes, as a result of regulatory requirements for boiler inspection. We anticipate these cost increases will be partially offset by lower fiber and energy costs. Earnings in our Cellulose Fibers segment should be substantially higher in the second quarter compared to the first. In our Real Estate segment, we expect home closings to exceed 500 or an increase of more than 100 closings compared to the first quarter. Average home prices are likely to be lower in the second quarter due to mix. However, gross margins are expected to remain steady when compared to the first quarter. Selling costs should increase somewhat, driven by the increased volume of closing. For the second quarter, we expect a small loss in our single-family home building business, comparable to the first quarter. We don't anticipate the significant level of earnings from the sale of commercial partnerships that we experienced in the first quarter. However, we may have smaller land or lot sales. We didn't have any impairments in the first quarter and have not had any to date in the second quarter. Now I'll wrap up with some financial comments including a REIT update. Capital expenditures for the first quarter were approximately $62 million. This compares with $68 million in the first quarter of 2009. We estimate net capital expenditures for the full year of 2010 will be around $200 million. We ended the quarter with over $2.1 billion of cash and short-term investments. This is up from the year-end balance of just over $1.9 billion. Traditionally, the first quarter is a significant use of cash due to lower seasonal earnings, working capital increases, and semi annual interest payments. In this first quarter, those outflows were more than offset by the receipt of tax refunds of over $550 million. Let me close with a brief RIET update. As Dan mentioned, we received the necessary approvals from shareholders at our annual meeting earlier this month, which will allow us to use significant amount of stock to pay out our accumulated earnings and profits. The most likely timing for the payout is later this year, but the actual timing has not yet been set. The total amount of earnings and profits, as of the beginning of this year is between $5.5 billion and $5.7 billion. The board intends to cap the cash portion of the payout at 10% or approximately $550 million to $570 million, assuming a 2010 conversion. As we look forward, we are reviewing the appropriate level of cash balances in light of our announced REIT conversion, our future dividend policy, the appropriate capital structure for the company, including the need to replace our line of credit, which expires at the end of next year and our significant debt maturities at the beginning of 2012, as well as consideration of growth opportunities as the economy improves. Although there continues to be much uncertainty as to the pace of economic recovery, especially in the second half of this year, our strong liquidity enables us to make the appropriate strategic decisions to enhance value for shareholders. We look forward to giving you a better idea of timing for these decisions at our upcoming analyst meeting at the end of May. With that, I'll turn the call back to Dan and I look forward to your questions.