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Wolverine World Wide, Inc. (WWW)

Q4 2017 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 21, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to Wolverine Worldwide’s Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2017 Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode until the question-and-answer-session of the conference call. This call is being recorded at the request of Wolverine Worldwide. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to introduce Mr. Chris Hufnagel, Senior Vice President of Strategy for Wolverine Worldwide. Mr. Hufnagel, you may proceed.

Chris Hufnagel

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to our fourth quarter and full-year 2017 conference call. On the call today are Blake Krueger, our Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President; and Mike Stornant, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Earlier this morning, we announced our financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year 2017. The news release is available on many news sites or can be viewed from our corporate website at wolverineworldwide.com. If you would prefer to have a copy of the news release sent to you directly, please call Tyler Deur at 616-258-5775 This morning’s press release included non-GAAP disclosures, and these disclosures were reconciled with attached tables within the body of the release. Comments during today’s earnings call will include some additional non-GAAP disclosures. There is a document posted on our corporate website entitled WWW Q4 2017 Conference Call Supplemental Tables that will reconcile these non-GAAP disclosures to GAAP. The document is accessible under the Investor Relations tab at our corporate website, wolverineworldwide.com, by clicking on the Webcast link at the top of the page. Before turning the call over to Blake to comment on our results, I wanted to provide some additional context information. As communicated during the Company’s last quarterly earnings call, the Company’s 2017 fiscal year is comprised of four 13-week quarters versus a 12-week quarter for the first three quarters and the 16-week quarter for the fiscal fourth quarter in the prior year. When speaking to revenue, Blake and Mike will primarily refer to underlying revenue, which adjust for the impact of foreign exchange, the impact of retail store closures, the transition of the Stride Rite to a license business model and for 2018 guidance, the sale of Sebago brand and the sale of the Department of Defense business. We believe underlying growth thus reflects how our global businesses are performing in the marketplace. In addition, we will be providing adjusted financial results, which exclude restructuring and impairment costs, non-recurring organizational transformation costs including divestitures and incremental inventory markdowns related store closures, the impact of foreign exchange, a non-cash impairment of indefinite lived intangible assets, environmental and other costs, and the impact of recent changes to U.S. tax law. You can find tables reconciling these disclosures in our earnings release and on our corporate website. I’d also like to remind you that predictions and projections made during today’s conference call regarding Wolverine Worldwide and its operations are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities laws. As a result, we must caution you that as with any prediction or projection, there are a number of factors that could cause results to differ materially. These important risk factors are identified in the Company’s SEC filings and in our press releases. With that being said, I would like to turn the call over to Blake Krueger. Blake?

Blake Krueger

Analyst

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Earlier this morning, we reported fourth quarter revenue of nearly $580 million, representing underlying growth of 1.7% and adjusted earnings per share of $0.41, a 20% increase over the last year. We’re obviously pleased with these results as the momentum in the business continued into Q4. During the quarter, we made excellent progress in all four sprint lanes of the WOLVERINE WAY FORWARD, our holistic enterprise-wide transformation of the Company. This work has helped us harvest significant efficiencies that will allow us to achieve our 12% operating margin target well-ahead of our original schedule, all while providing the investment capacity to fuel our growth initiatives. We are pleased to say that the heavy lifting is behind us with the store closures, portfolio changes and organizational restructuring now complete. The Company’s pace of execution over the last two years has been incredible. The foundation is now set for a new and more profitable operating model that is focused on speed, innovation and growth, something we’re calling our GLOBAL GROWTH AGENDA. I am excited to share more details on our agenda with you this morning. But first, let me briefly review the fourth quarter performance of our brand groups, starting with the Wolverine Outdoor & Lifestyle Group. Underlying revenue grew 14.4% compared to the prior year with Merrell growing in the high teens, Cat up in the mid teens, Chaco posting nearly 30% growth, and Hush Puppies down mid single digits. The Merrell business continued to accelerate in Q4, benefiting from the successful launch of the Chameleon 7 and the excellent performance from the expanded Arctic Grip offering, which grew over 50%. The new Nature’s Gym collection continued to perform well and the Merrell Work and Tactical program was also a source…

Mike Stornant

Analyst

Thanks, Blake, and good morning, everyone. 2017 was a successful year for the Company. And I’m proud to say that we were clearly seeing positive results from our team’s efforts over the last two years. In the fourth quarter of 2015, we set in motion several initiatives, focused on improving the operational performance of the Company in the face of a quickly changing global retail environment. In a very short time period, we have successfully addressed the most critical needs, including closing subpar stores, restructuring our supply chain to drive lower costs, resetting our portfolio to focus on brands with the most profitable growth potential and reorganizing our teams around the world. The fundamental profit improvements from this work will allow us to achieve our stated 12% adjusted operating margin target well ahead of schedule. At the same time, we’ve added talent, tools and capabilities that will change the way we do business and allow us to act with speed and urgency as we implement our new GLOBAL GROWTH AGENDA. I am excited to share more details on our 2018 outlook including our reinvestment strategy to drive growth. But first, I will review the Company’s 2017 results. Beginning with the fourth quarter, the Company delivered revenue of $578.6 million, resulting in underlying growth of 1.7%. Reported revenue declined 20.7% versus the prior year due to the change in the quarterly calendar, the impact from store closures, and the portfolio changes made earlier in the year. As Blake noted, Merrell delivered high teens growth in the quarter in part from the early launch of the Chameleon 7 product and a strong Arctic Grip performance, while the Sperry women’s boot business exceeded our expectations. The water boot category for Wolverine brand was softer than expected on lower at-once order activity. In addition,…

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer-session. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Jim Duffy of Stifel. Please go ahead.

Jim Duffy

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning.

Blake Krueger

Analyst

Good morning, Jim.

Jim Duffy

Analyst

My question is around the assumptions for acceleration and underlying revenue growth. Can you guys speak to the visibility you have to that at this juncture? And it seems, expectations are for that to be more second half weighted than first half weighted. If you could explain that as well, that would be helpful. Thank you.

Blake Krueger

Analyst

Yes. I mean, Jim, it’s as simple as looking at our product pipeline and our new ideas pipeline. When you focus on Merrell, just as one example, and you look back at 2017, Arctic Grip, the Moab 2, the Chameleon 7 that was kind of brought forward into Q4, when you look at Merrell’s product pipeline, new idea pipeline, today, it’s at least four times what it was in 2017. So, we have each of our brands gauge their timing, put our plan, internal plan together over each of the first half, second half of coming year. So, we’ve got pretty good view of where our growth is going to be coming from and when. I’m sure there will be some surprises over 12 brands and 200 countries and territories up and down a little bit as there always is. But, we have pretty good insight.

Jim Duffy

Analyst

Okay. How far along Blake are you in some of these key agendas, like consumer insights, product innovation, and international acceleration? Is that a situation where all that’s well in place coming out of 2016- 2017, or are you still kind of building the plane while flying it here?

Blake Krueger

Analyst

I would say, we’re pretty close to the goal line. We did a tremendous amount of work, as you know, in 2016, and that continues the way forward in 2017. We’ve implemented most of the new skill sets, tools, capabilities into our brands. I wouldn’t say that it’s all 100% completed for every brand as we sit here today. But, we are substantially further along than I ever anticipated we would at this point in time. So, we feel pretty good right now. We feel like -- we kind of feel like we’re ahead of the path. We know the retail consumer environment remains pretty dynamic, especially here in the U.S., but we’ve got a lot of a heavy lifting, a lot of the work is -- most of the work is behind us.

Mike Stornant

Analyst

I would also add Jim to that that our ability to test a lot of this and validate a lot of this during the year, obviously with Merrell which showed really strong results for the year and accelerated growth in the back half of the year, also gives us that confidence in the effectiveness of this as we roll it out to the rest of the portfolio. And we obviously had some brands adopt a lot of this work during 2017. But, kind of putting ourselves in the position early, get the new playbook in everyone’s hands and be able to execute coming out of the gate into 2018 is probably, as Blake said, probably a little ahead of schedule.

Jim Duffy

Analyst

Okay. Last one for me and I’ll let someone else jump in. You are calling for return to growth from the Sperry brand in the second half of the year. What are some of the factors that give you confidence that you can stabilize and have revenue from that brand, actually in fact positive for a change?

Blake Krueger

Analyst

Well, first of all, we’ve got a great merchant leader who is leading that brand now and he’s been on board for about a year, a little less than a year. And again, it goes right back to product flow and ideas. The Sperry consumer has a great affinity for the brand. And we were frankly with some hindsight anchored in only boat or primarily boat for too long a period of time. So, when I look ahead, you probably have seen the new Gold Cup ads in the Wall Street Journal. I look at an expanded casual collection, Seaport Penny loafers which are selling through. The pick up on sneakers and vulcanized product category has been excellent. And we are still with our plan for Sperry, planning boat down for 2018. We understand though as the category leader with a 60% or 70% market share in boat, it’s up to Sperry to make boats cool again. I know, I am dading myself by using the word cool. But that’s Sperry’s job to do in that particular category. So, it really comes down to the team and the product flow and the early responses to some of these new product initiatives.

Mike Stornant

Analyst

I don’t want to overlook the boot category either, Jim, because that was a real strong performer, better than we expected frankly in Q4 for Sperry. I think that consistent performance over the last several fall seasons has been a good momentum build in that category for the brand. And we’re already seeing some strong commitments on boots, as Blake mentioned in his prepared remarks on boots for Sperry for next fall. So, I think that’s another important category that continues to grow on top of these, not necessarily all new categories that Blake itemized, but categories are getting them a proper amount of attention and have a little bit more momentum today than they did a year ago.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Jonathan Komp of Baird. Please go ahead.

Jonathan Komp

Analyst

Yes. Hi, thank you. I wanted to ask you guys your current assessment of the environment as you look at the U.S. wholesale channel. And I know with the update a few weeks ago, you highlighted expectations for low single digit wholesale growth in the U.S. for 2018. So, I just wanted to maybe get a little bit more detail behind your thinking there along with kind of the current environment.

Blake Krueger

Analyst

Yes. When I look at the U.S. market right now, several things are striking. First of all, the growth in digital mobile continues. I would say, 10 years ago, none of us anticipated in 2017 that 28% of all footwear would be sold online in our market, but that’s -- it was at 28% last year and it’s headed north. I also think from a macro standpoint, the consumer has shifted especially the millennial consumers and younger consumers, much more of a focus on experience, creating memories, I think, that’s a trend that’s going to continue and probably accelerate. And then, I think some of the dynamics of the environment have retailers and consumers -- especially with the consumer they can get everything delivered in two days at the most primarily, buying closer to need. So, the cadence of buying from retailers is changing, has changed over the last several years, and that’s the same for consumers. So, in the U.S., the brick and mortar store environment, we think that’s going to continue to be pretty tough. I think, there has been several estimates of bankruptcies, and store closures are going to continue into this year. It could be as high or higher than 2008. So, I think the macro brick and mortar environment is going to be challenging. I do think inventories are clean right now. So, I think the retailers and certainly brands, when you look at our performance, our inventories over two-year period down 40% to 50%. But, I think retail inventory is also very clean. We do think internally that the new tax act is going to increase consumer spending, that’s over two thirds of our economy. And we think that middle America gets $1,600 to $2,000 extra that that’s going to be spent. And so, we kind of look ahead and see that as a bit of a positive development. And then, maybe lastly, I would say another trend that we see continuing is this homing trend or nesting trend. You see it in some of the homeware markets, but we think that’s a trend that’s going to continue for the U.S. consumer over the next year or two. That’s just kind of a macro overview of what we’re seeing.

Jonathan Komp

Analyst

Okay. And just as a follow-up on the inventory. Is there any color you can give on Merrell, either state of channel inventories or the sell-through in the market after such strong selling growth in the fourth quarter?

Mike Stornant

Analyst

I would say, Jon, the channel inventories are in very good shape for Merrell. Last year, remember, in the first quarter, we were liquidating Moab, the old Moab style and replacing it with the new updated version. And so, that obviously is well-behind us now. But, I would say every indication for Merrell right now in terms of the channel is very clean, the sell-throughs, not just for Merrell but frankly for most of our portfolio continued to improve. And I would say that as we see that and we see the order patterns that Blake referred to being a little bit different than may be historically, it will be kind of an important sort of trend to monitory for us. We are going to put a little more emphasis in our business in tracking and understanding the sell-through trends in each of the channels and spend more time with our retail customers on helping them manage that. That’s one of the many work streams or initiatives that we have as part of the transformational work and feel like as that brick and mortar channel becomes more challenging, we need to spend more time helping our retail partners manage. But, the indicators in terms of inventory and sell-throughs have been pretty good.

Blake Krueger

Analyst

Yes. I would say, Jon, just with respect to Merrell, we are anticipating high single-digit growth next year for Merrell, maybe even approaching double-digit growth. We think Q1 is going to be a little more flattish for some of the reasons that Mike indicated, the introduction of the Moab 2 last year, Chameleon 7 being pulled into Q4 of this year, and frankly on the good side, just lower closeouts and less promotions at retail. So, we are very excited about the product pipeline for Merrell for sure.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Ed Yruma of Keybanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Good morning. Thanks for taking our questions. This is Matt on for Ed. So, could you give us your thoughts on the Saucony brand? It seems like a decelerated a bit in the fourth quarter. What specifically drove weakness? And I think we’ve seen some promotional activity on originals on the site. Are you guys taking a step back from originals or do you think they will continue to be a growth driver?

Blake Krueger

Analyst

We are not -- we continue to see originals as a growth driver. Q4 was a little more challenging for Saucony for a couple of reason. I think, the run specialty channel here in the U.S. had a tougher quarter in Q4 than some prior quarters and of course that affects the Saucony business. And I think Saucony also had some late product deliveries and a couple of quality issues that were frankly not anticipated and a bit unusual, given the factories that we do business with. But Saucony certainly had some late product and a couple of quality issues that had an impact on Q4, which was a little worse than the performance for the rest of the year. But, Saucony as a brand obviously performance run, originals which continued to grow especially in some key international markets and what we call Life on the Run, you may call athleisure category. Saucony is going to be introducing a pretty unique premium approach in that particular area. So, as we look ahead, clearly, Saucony right now is playing in the ten-ring of the consumer. So, athleisure, athletic, running silhouettes have been really the one category that has grown double-digit, significantly over the last couple of years.

Mike Stornant

Analyst

And Saucony’s international business is very strong in terms of not only penetration, overall mix, but just growth in the category, so, another strong sort of indicator for the Saucony business.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, thanks. And can you expand a bit about your where your digital engagement strategy sits today and how that will change your Digital-Direct Offense plan? And that’s it for me. Thanks.

Blake Krueger

Analyst

Yes. Well, it’s changing today and obviously it’s going to continue to change. But frankly, we’re focused on a few big things. First of all, mobile, when you look at just our own collective sites today, about 50% of all traffic comes through mobile. So, as a company, as a brand, you’ve got to be focused on mobile. That’s where the consumer wants to be; that’s where the consumer is. You must have a great experience on mobile. And that’s just part of the overall consumer convenience trend. And then, I guess, maybe secondly, we’re focused on newness and freshness. So, you’ve got to have fresh content, digital content on a much more continuous basis compared to traditional marketing or traditional consumer interaction. So, the frequency of updates, a content flow, the flow of product, the amount of exclusive product you’re offering to your wholesale customers for their online business or our own e-commerce site, has got to increase substantially. And then, I would say, third, one of our key focus areas right now is on retention. So, how do we increase the purchase frequency? Where do we have to invest? We just -- in 2017, one of our projects was a collective unified database where we can cross sell the consumers across all of our 12 brands when appropriate. So, the actual use of that tool and capability is going to be rolled out this year. And then, of course, lastly, we’re spending behind social prospecting and digital demand creation. In a summary, that’s where we are in kind of our Digital-Direct Offense.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Steve Marotta of CLK & Associates. Please go ahead.

Steve Marotta

Analyst

Good morning, everybody. Can you please talk about the mix? Just one quick question on Sperry and then a follow-up. The mix of boat shoes, as a percent of the total category in 2017 and what you expect for 2018?

Blake Krueger

Analyst

I think, for Sperry, it was still over 40% for 2017. As we look short or maybe more mid-term, we’d like that to be a third, a third, a third; a third in casual area, which includes boot as well a third in sneakers, and a third in boat. So, the team is focused on expanding the product categories for Sperry, and there has been absolutely no pushback from the Sperry consumer.

Steve Marotta

Analyst

That’s very helpful. And also, could you peel the onion back a little bit on China? Is the Asia South Pacific region 10% of your total consolidated sales, or is it specifically China? And then, can you talk a little bit about your strategies there, specifically with either new partners or new products flow? I mean, how do you expect to get from point A to point B there?

Blake Krueger

Analyst

I think, when you look at China, we have probably made some partner selection mistakes in the past. When we look back over the last five or eight years, we’ve got some great partners for some of our brands in China, but we’ve had a couple of stumbles along the way. Right now, with some of our key brands, really nothing we can talk too much about today, but we are focused on new partners. And fundamentally, probably moving down the food chain, from more of a pure distributor relationship with people, and we’ve got excellent distributors around the world, but moving down the food chain to more of a joint venture or a little more direct control when it comes to product and marketing.

Mike Stornant

Analyst

And Steve, to answer your question, the 10% we referenced earlier was for the entire region, not just for China.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Andrew Burns of D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Andrew Burns

Analyst

Thanks and good morning. When you look at the momentum in the Merrell brand, I know you’ve really built up the product engine and the marketing there for the last year or more. Was that one of the earliest brands to adopt the GLOBAL GROWTH AGENDA initiative? Just curious if that success you are seeing is sort of a template company-wide with some of those products and digital investments?

Blake Krueger

Analyst

Right. Merrell was the very first brand that adopted the model. And frankly, Merrell was a bit of our test case that for validation across a number of initiatives last year but certainly on our growth model, Merrell was the first and early adopter, and frankly to reflect it in the results for the year.

Andrew Burns

Analyst

Just a follow-up. It sounds like most of the brands now have some or all of those tools outlined in the agenda. And you are investing another $40 million to $45 million in ‘18. How should we think about the financial benefits? Should we consider ‘18 to be sort of an investments year where they are partially evident and fully reflected in ‘19 or is sort of more of it realized in ‘18? Thanks.

Blake Krueger

Analyst

Yes. I think, I would view -- we view 2018 really both ways. We know it’s an investment year, $40 million to $45 million to capitalize on a lot of the hard work the team did over the past couple of years. We also view it as a big step in the growth direction for the Company to deliver mid single-digit growth. And then, obviously, for 2019 and thereafter, we would anticipate having -- being able to drive organic growth above mid single digits. So, that’s our internal...

Mike Stornant

Analyst

Sure. I mean, we absolutely expect to accelerate right into ‘19 in terms of the impact of these investments we’ll have typically. But, we expect to have certainly some meaningful benefit in the back half of ‘18 too.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Chris Svezia of Wedbush. Please go ahead.

Chris Svezia

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. And thank you for taking my questions. I guess, first, I just want to go to Merrell. Last year, you talked about a lot of product initiatives that came to market, Moab, Chameleon, Arctic Grip et cetera, Nature’s Gym. Can you maybe elaborate a little bit just based on your confidence for Merrell in ‘18, what in terms of product initiatives, gives you that confidence to get to high single digit growth specifically? You’re just building on these existing platforms, or is there something new that you can call out to sort of give you that confidence about where Merrell is going in 2018?

Blake Krueger

Analyst

Yes. I think, let me talk about it in a couple of ways. For Merrell, I think, the product focus is maybe in two or three big areas, fast and light hiking. Merrell wants to own grip with an emphasis on fast and light. And you know how the millennials now hiking suddenly become desirable, cool, again, if I could use that term. But Merrell wants to own the fast and light area and own grip. I think, Merrell is also looking at expanding two of its really newest categories, Nature’s Gym and Work. And so that’s going to be a focus. Those were -- they delivered some growth, they were kind of in start-up mode in 2017, and we look for accelerated growth in those areas. And then, in the lifestyle area, which is probably defined by two of the five product -- consumer territories right now that would probably be urban trail and outdoor life, we’ve got to get younger. So, we’re going to be bringing -- Merrell is going to be bringing Arctic Grip to the lifestyle side of the equation, not just the performance footwear, but also it’s going to be focusing on younger, a more color, faster style. Merrell is going to be introducing something they call Youngle Moc. The Jungle Moc is going to be, believe it or not, 20 years old this year in 2018, but they are also focused on a pretty significant update and modernization of that particular style. So, when you look at Arctic Grip, one of their hiking boots, hopping [ph] and hiking boots, Thermo Rogue just won a Gear of the Year of the Outdoor Retailer Show, won the gold Award at the ISPO show in Europe. So, when you look at all of the initiatives they have underway, I mean, we would guess it would be kind of 4X the initiatives that they instituted in 2017. We think Merrell is going to one of our fastest growing brands for this year.

Chris Svezia

Analyst

Okay. Thank you for the color, Blake. With regard to the digital piece of business. How big is digital right now? And just from a margin perspective, where does that stand relative to the 12% corporate level EBIT margin?

Mike Stornant

Analyst

Yes. When you look at the growth we expect in that channel this year in 2018, and the other changes to the business over the last year or so, our own e-com business will be about 8.5% of our total business in 2018. And even though we’re overindexing our investments there in some of the areas that Blake talked about, we would still expect operating margins in that channel in that segment of our business to be at the high end of the range of even our wholesale businesses. And so, when we look at where we have not only we have the most growth potential but where we have the ability to drive some mix improvement in our profit margin, e-com is that. And obviously, we have as a result, more capacity to invest in that and to make sure that we maximize the potential of it over the next 12 to 24 months.

Blake Krueger

Analyst

I would say, Chris, we’re also seeing accelerated growth at e-com businesses at our great wholesale customers and really across the board there.

Chris Svezia

Analyst

All right. Thank you. and final question I had is, Merrell, you talked about high single digit growth on a year. Is it safe to assume, Sperry is flat, down in the first half, up in the back half? And in Saucony, where does that fall in that growth that you think about for the year in total, is that a mid single digit growth brand, or how do you think about that?

Blake Krueger

Analyst

All right. Let me see if I can remember all those. I think, as we talked about Q1, for a variety of reasons, maybe a bit flattish for Merrell, but we expect high single digit growth for the year. For Sperry, we would expect our first half performance to improve, maybe approach flat, but to improve certainly from being down mid or low high single digits in 2017. That’s how the pace of new product introductions flow. And for Saucony, we would expect mid single digit growth for the entire year, probably back half weighted but mid single digit growth.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Corinna Van der Ghinst of Citi Research. Please go ahead.

Corinna Van der Ghinst

Analyst

Thank you. Hi, good morning. First, I just had a follow-up question on the Merrell growth of 18% in the quarter. You obviously mentioned some of the new products like the Chameleon 7 and the expansion of the Arctic Grip. But, how much of that growth was driven by reorders on better weather just relative to your initial plan for the quarter? And what does your high single digit guidance assume more broadly for the next winter season following what was pretty favorable for this past winter?

Blake Krueger

Analyst

Yes. To be honest with you, October was pretty warm, November was good and miserable, and December turned a little bit warm again. So, we did -- I think, because of apparel outerwear, everybody anticipated a generally a blockbuster Q4 for the footwear industry and cold weather product. And I would say, overall, across companies and brands, it was average. So, maybe Merrell benefited a little bit in Q4 from the weather and some of our other brands as well. But, there were also some anomalies. No one really after three great quarters of growth expected the U.S. work boot business to be down in Q4, given the weather, but that is in fact what happened. So, a lot of Merrell’s business is driven by at-once orders, and retailers are buying closer to need. But, some of the growth in Q4 certainly was driven by the Chameleon, the early launch of Chameleon 7, which performed very well at retail.

Corinna Van der Ghinst

Analyst

Okay. That’s helpful. And then, I was wondering if you could contextualize your efforts a little to speed up the supply chain in terms of reducing lead times. You mentioned going to lead times as short as 60 days. But, how does that compare to your previous average lead times and how quickly can you implement those changes across the rest of the portfolio?

Blake Krueger

Analyst

Well, we probably can’t implement them quickly enough. But, the 60-day project which we have successfully introduced in several of our brands, isn’t across every brand in the entire product line right now, but it’s probably a third of what the industry would consider the normal timeline. And the normal timeline traditionally from very early concept to delivery at retail could be as high as 350 to 400 days. In today’s world, that’s just not acceptable. So, you’ve got to be able to get in the year best selling product, much, much quicker, and then something we call Project Dash, was an initiative to reduce the concept to at market time to 60 days, which we have tested in 2017 and plan to rollout on a much broader basis this year.

Corinna Van der Ghinst

Analyst

Great. And if I could just sneak in one last follow-up. Based on what you guys are seeing in the market today, I know you guys have been actively talking about M&A for quite some time. But, where do you see is the potential for getting an acquisition done in 2018? And if you could just talk about what kinds of opportunities you’re seeing out there in the marketplace right now, and if you are making any changes and how you’re thinking about targets? Thanks a lot.

Blake Krueger

Analyst

Yes. I would say, as you know, we have proven skill set. A lot of our growth has been driven by acquisitions over the last 20-25 years. We certainly have, as Mike indicated, plenty of capacity and liquidity right now. So, we’ve been very active in the market, looking over lots of different properties. We’re looking for companies that could fill a whitespace for us or are in the sweet spot on current consumer trends, high growth categories, companies that might have some new talent and skill sets we want. But fundamentally, we like heritage brands, we like brands that have global potential, because we know we have our brands in 200 countries and territories around the world. And we like picking up, looking at brands that may be strong in a particular market or a region but we can leverage around the world. And then, lastly, I would say given our size today, we’re interested in bigger brands. We’re interested in brands that we can grow that will really make a difference to our top-line. But, we’ve been very active and we’ll continue to be very active at looking at certain properties.

Corinna Van der Ghinst

Analyst

Thanks so much.

Blake Krueger

Analyst

Yes. I can’t predict timing, obviously. Sometimes they come when they come, those opportunities, but you have to be active and we’re certainly active.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Scott Krasik of Buckingham Research Group. Please go ahead.

Scott Krasik

Analyst

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just surprised, I guess a little bit that Asia less than $250 million last year. It doesn’t seem crazy to double that, but wondering on two fronts. Number one, how do you see that progressing? How much do you expect to add in 2018 for example, or is it more weighted to ‘19 and ‘20? And then, it can be very expensive to grow in Asia. So, just wondering, sort of if you feel like the level of investments that you outlined earlier, are going to be sufficient. Thanks.

Blake Krueger

Analyst

Yes. I would say that -- remember, the $250 million, a lot of that is just royalty income, distributor fee income. So, we do not take -- on a lot of that we do not take a wholesale or top-line approach for many of the markets in Asia Pacific. The new initiatives that we are planning on kicking off this year, obviously probably won’t have that big of an impact in 2018, but it will start to be meaningful in 2019 and certainly 2020. That’s how we view it. We have plenty of dry powder to invest and we’ve kind of taken that into account in our plans for this year. If you want to look at Asia Pacific in terms of pairs for the Company, and if you take a full year, it’s a bigger market for us, probably 15% to 18%, depending on the year of total pairs would be in the region. But certainly, from a top-line standpoint, a lot of that is distributor fee income.

Scott Krasik

Analyst

Okay. That’s great. And just in terms of the split by brand, is that a bigger Saucony region, Merrell, how does that break down?

Blake Krueger

Analyst

I think Cat, Merrell, Saucony, Keds and of course Hush Puppies. And in terms of -- we don’t talk a lot about Hush Puppies. In terms of pairs, it remains one of our largest global brands. As you know, it’s a bit of an annuity for us in that respect. But, I think Hush Puppies today ended the year with over 850 standalone mono branded stores around the world.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Laurent Vasilescu of Macquarie. Please go ahead.

Laurent Vasilescu

Analyst

Good morning and thanks for taking my question. Regarding the incremental investments of $40 million to $45 million, I think you provided some percentage breakdowns between the three initiatives in your prepared remarks. Just to make sure I understand the breakdown, can you parse out how much will flow through COGS and SG&A, and how should we think of the flow through of these investments by quarter in fiscal ‘18?

Mike Stornant

Analyst

Yes. The vast majority of the COGS are going to go through SG&A and we will see, as we mentioned, ongoing expansion in gross margin in 2018. We will also see an improvement in kind of our SG&A as a percent of revenue, despite these investments because of a lot of the hard work and improvements that we made in the business over the last couple of years. The shift or the impact of some of the way forward benefits are going to accelerate and will be more prominent in the back half of the year whereas these investments, obviously, we want to accelerate as much of this as we can to get some revenue benefit in the back half from the investments we are going to make. But obviously, to make sure we hit 2019 with everything fully in place. So, there will be a stronger portion of the investment in the first half of the year, maybe 60% or so compared to the back half of the year.

Laurent Vasilescu

Analyst

And then, for you full year gross margin guide of up 40 to 80 bps, can you parse out further what will drive that and then any color on how should we think about the first quarter gross margin shaping up?

Mike Stornant

Analyst

Yes. I think, similar improvement in terms of the first quarter, I’ll pull it up here while I am answering the other part of the question. But I think, overall, the organic improvement in gross margin is supply chain, product cost related, some improvements in sort of our pricing strategy. I would say, that’s a smaller impact on the overall margin expansion. It’s quite important to call out that our sales of close out or liquidation merchandize in 2018 will be about $15 million to $20 million lower than it was in 2017. That’s in our growth guidance already. But obviously that lower mix of closeouts and ability to maybe recover more of the cost is going to improve our margins as well. So, not much impact from currency in 2018 as we planned it today. So, overall, just really fundamental improvements there across the board, and a cleaner inventory, and a cleaner business overall. As far as the first quarter is concerned, I’d expect similar rate of improvement in that sort of 50 to 80 basis9point year-over-year improvement range.

Laurent Vasilescu

Analyst

Very helpful. And then, finally, can you remind us the breakdown of stores by brand at the end of the fourth quarter? How much did the brick and mortar locations generate in FY17 revenue, and what’s your anticipation for FY18?

Blake Krueger

Analyst

Yes. We have about 80 go forward stores. At year-end, we probably had 36, around 35, 35 Sperry concepts, the same number of Merrell concepts, one Saucony standalone store, and we still have 8 kind of multi-brand stores that are more in the outlet arena. Comps were pretty good for our stores; the performance of those go-forward stores in Q4 certainly better than the FDRA index that we always compare ourselves to. And we’ll be closing a few stores this year and we’ll probably be opening a few stores this year. So, we’re not anticipating a radically different year-end 2018 store count.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Dana Telsey of Telsey Advisory Group. Please go ahead.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Good morning everyone. As you think about CapEx spending and how capital is being allocated, what do you see as the return profile for this year on CapEx spend and how it will be allocated? And also as you think about the marketing budget, what’s different this year from last year? And how do you see SG&A being impacted? Thank you, bye.

Mike Stornant

Analyst

Sure. Our CapEx is coming down year-over-year in 2018. Last year, we made a pretty significant investment in the new distribution center on the West Coast which has been up and running now for good several months and really operating at a high level. That’s going to help us continue to address the speed to market initiatives that we have in the business and get closer to the consumers and retailers out there. But, we won’t have that cost this year. So, we will be bringing our overall CapEx down nearly $10 million on a year-over-year basis. We continue to be very-focused there. In addition to the $40 million to $45 million of operating cost investments that we’re putting in to play this year, I would say 15% to 20% of the capital plan is also focused on our growth initiatives whether that be technology, IT infrastructure and other tool sets that are part of the supply chain improvements. So, when we think about those returns, it’s really to continue to operate a more flexible, nimble company. We’re relentless on our focus here around speed. And I think, the things that we’re investing in are supporting that overall. I think, as far as the discretionary component of the overall investment and thinking how much of that is related to not necessarily just marketing but sort of demand creation spend, it’s a good percentage of that incremental amount, especially on the digital side of the business. So, we would see that continuing to increase to drive brand awareness but also more importantly to disengage with our consumers on a digital platform more effectively. So, that part of the overall SG&A spend will increase along with the overall investment.

Operator

Operator

The last question comes from Mitch Kummetz of Pivotal Research. Please go ahead.

Mitch Kummetz

Analyst

I guess I got a few. One, Mike, just in terms of the Q1 sales outlook, you are essentially guiding to kind of flat revenue on an underlying basis. I am trying to understand the thesis there, because Blake I think you talked about Wolverine returning to growth in the first quarter, I would imagine that you expect Merrell and Chaco to be up in Q1. I think, you guys made a comment that Sperry could be approaching flat, maybe that was more of a first half comment. But I am just trying to understanding why you aren’t expecting a little bit stronger revenue in the first quarter?

Mike Stornant

Analyst

Yes. Just what I said for Merrell is we are really anticipating high single digits, maybe even double digit growth for the full-year. We expect Q1 to be flattish for Merrell for a number of reasons. We were -- in ‘17, we were selling out the Moab, Moab 1s. We were pipeline filling the Moab 2s. We had originally scheduled Chameleon 1 in Q1 of this year -- Chameleon 7, brought that forward into Q4. And then, Merrell’s inventory is just much cleaner. We are going to have substantially lower closeouts and less promotions going on. So for all those reasons, Merrell is going to have a great year. So, Q1 is probably going to be flattish. And I think the other piece is, Mitch, it’s, Sperry approaching flat but not flat in the first quarter. I think the other brand is kind of puts and takes there. But, I think obviously Merrell and Sperry have a big impact on the first quarter for us.

Mitch Kummetz

Analyst

And then, Blake, is there any way you could provide some historical context around Sperry boat? It feels like that side of the business has been kind of in decline the last three to four years. It sounds like your comment -- I think, you said just over 40%, I am guessing it’s sort of in a $200 million range or a little less than that. Is there any way you could say kind of what it was at the peak and even kind of what it was several years ago in a more normalized range right before the whole sort of popularity boom and boat picked up whenever that was, I don’t six, seven, eight years ago?

Blake Krueger

Analyst

Right. Just to put it in general terms I would say when the boat shoes silhouette was white-hot, men and women -- the Sperry boat business might have been $80 million to a $100 million higher than it is today, $100 million higher than it is today. And obviously that brands needs a more balanced approach to asset the needs of its consumer. And there’s been no push back into category expansion from the Sperry consumer as evidenced by the Saltwater Boot success. So that just kind of puts it in a historical context.

Mitch Kummetz

Analyst

And then lastly, Mike, on the full year sales growth rate, you are saying 2% to 6%, that’s a pretty big -- pretty wide range. Just trying to understand kind of underlying assumptions that are embedded on either end of the ranges; is there anything you can speak to there?

Mike Stornant

Analyst

Underlying assumptions meaning -- I mean, it’s pretty typical range for us, Mitch.

Mitch Kummetz

Analyst

Okay.

Mike Stornant

Analyst

I mean, I think, as we go into the year, especially with the experience over the last couple of years and things that are just -- there is no way to anticipate all the puts and takes in the business. We tend to provide guidance in that range. I would say, based on the comments we’ve made already and the fact that we really see growth materializing, expect to have growth materialized for all of our brands in the portfolio this year, I don’t know when we’ve seen that. And so, with very strong growth for Merrell, I think a good stabilization for Sperry, and the growth for rest of our brands, we think the year is stacking up pretty nicely.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The question-and-answer-session has now ended. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Christ Hufnagel. Mr. Hufnagel, you may proceed.

Chris Hufnagel

Analyst

On behalf of Wolverine Worldwide, I would like to thank you for joining us today. As a reminder, our conference call replay is available on our website at wolverineworldwide.com. The replay will be available until March 21, 2018. Thank you and good day.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.