Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to Wolverine World Wide's Third Quarter 2015 Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode until the question-and-answer session of the call. This call is being recorded at the request of Wolverine World Wide. If anyone has any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would now like to introduce Mr. Chris Hufnagel, Vice President of Strategy, Investor Relations and Communications for Wolverine World Wide. Mr. Hufnagel, you may proceed. Christopher E. Hufnagel - VP-Strategy, Communications & Investor Relations: Thank you, Andrew. Good morning and welcome to our third quarter 2015 conference call. On the call today are Blake Krueger, our Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President; and Mike Stornant, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Earlier this morning, we announced our financial results for the third quarter of 2015. The release is available on many news sites or it can be viewed from our corporate website at wolverineworldwide.com. If you would prefer to have a copy of the news release sent directly to you, please call Tyler Deur at 616-233-0500. This morning's press release included non-GAAP disclosures, and these disclosures were reconciled with attached tables within the body of the release. Comments during today's earnings call will include some additional non-GAAP disclosures. There is a document posted on our corporate website entitled WWW Q3 2015 Conference Call Supplemental Tables that will reconcile these non-GAAP disclosures to GAAP. The document is accessible under the Investor Relations tab at our corporate website, wolverineworldwide.com, by clicking on the webcast link at the top of the page. Before I turn the call over to Blake to comment on our results, I'd like to remind you that predictions and projections made during today's conference call regarding Wolverine World Wide and its operations are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities laws. As a result, we must caution you that as with any prediction or projection, there are a number of factors that could cause results to differ materially. These important risk factors are identified in the company's SEC filings and in our press releases. With that being said, I'd like to turn the call over to Blake Krueger. Blake? Blake W. Krueger - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Earlier this morning, we reported our third quarter results highlighted by solid earnings in line with our original guidance. This performance is reflective of the high and consistent quality of our earnings engine, the power of our diversified brand portfolio, and the disciplined manner with which we operate our business. In spite of the current global retail environment, which continues to be choppy, our consolidated business and two of our three brand operating groups generated adjusted revenue growth during the quarter, excluding the impact of currency, the Patagonia Footwear exit and store closures as applicable. Mike and I will refer to adjusted revenue in this context in our remarks. But we'll also provide corresponding reported revenue figures. In step with our previously announced demand creation investment strategy, our quarterly marketing investment increased approximately 26% to support the long-term health and vitality of our brands. We remain committed to investing behind our brands and plan to accelerate revenue growth through product innovation, and deeper and more insightful consumer connections, all supported by a strong operational platform and our extensive global distribution footprint. For today's call, I'll cover our consolidated and brand operating group results, speak to some of the headwinds in the global marketplace, and then focus on key brand performances and related strategic updates for the quarter, specifically, the Stride Rite, Sperry and Merrell brands. Beginning with consolidated results. Adjusted revenue grew 0.7% versus the prior year, and reported revenue was $676.9 million (sic) [$678.9 million] (4:16), a 4.5% decrease year-over-year. We delivered adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.48 for the quarter, in line with our original guidance and achieved strong gross margins across the portfolio, while effectively managing discretionary SG&A, which was only partially offset by the increased marketing investments behind our brand. Focusing in on the brand operating group performance, starting with the Performance Group. Adjusted revenue grew 3.8% with Chaco posting exceptionally strong double-digit growth, Merrell generating low single-digit growth, and Saucony contributing mid-single digit growth in the quarter. Adjusted revenue for the Lifestyle Group was down 5.1% with Sperry down less than 1%, Keds down low single digits, and Stride Rite down high single digits. Hush Puppies saw a constant currency low-teens decline, due primarily to our decision to realign our domestic distribution strategy. The brand's international licensee business remains strong with revenue up double digits. Concluding with the Heritage Group, adjusted revenue grew 2.9% with Cat delivering mid-single digit growth, Wolverine producing low single digit growth, HYTEST growing at a solid double-digit pace, Bates down less than 1%, and Harley-Davidson down high-single digit. Mike will provide additional detail regarding our financial results in a few minutes. So, now let me share our perspective on the global macroeconomic environment, which impacted our results in the third quarter and is expected to continue into the near future. Heading into the back half of the year, we identified and planned for a variety of global macroeconomic challenges, many of which persisted and some of which became more challenging relative to our prior expectations. Although many of our key global markets have performed well, a number of others are exhibiting some stress for a variety of different reasons. In many international markets, the strong U.S. dollars put pressure on the cost of footwear and the ultimate retail price to consumers as most of the world purchases shoes in U.S. dollars. This, in turn, has and will continue to drive up the retail prices of footwear in many markets. Earlier this year, we chose the proactive path to protect gross margin by selectively increasing prices in our own international markets. We believe this action was appropriate for the long-term health of our brands and business, realizing it to put some pressure on revenue growth in the short term. In addition to currency, one of the biggest stories over the last several months has been softer global demand across many industries including consumer soft goods. This, in turn, is reflected in the economic challenges in China and its manufacturing slowdown. This has taken a toll on countries with commodity-based economies. For our business, a couple of examples of countries impacted by declining commodity prices are Russia and Canada, both of which have seen declining GDP this year. Although, not commodity-dependent and faring better, Europe has not been immune to the economic and consumer uncertainty and is still struggling to deliver economic growth above 2%. In the United States, while the economy has remained on relatively stable footings through the first half of the year, traffic trends at retail have remained soft. Consumers' sentiment has eroded somewhat in recent month and unseasonably warm weather appears to have stunted early fall shopping. We believe that inventories at retail have been building through the year, resulting in tight open-to-buy and a more cautious stance by retailers ahead of the critical holiday shopping season. A combination of these factors across numerous markets around the world resulted in a tougher demand environment, especially late in the third quarter, and we believe that it's prudent to expect many of these factors to persist in the fourth quarter and the first half of 2016. This has caused us, along with others in and outside of our industry to temper the near-term outlook. While we have a strong brand portfolio and a resilient business model, we expect the short-term environment to remain status quo. The obvious question is how we are adjusting to the current global realities. Over the past year, we have strategically and tactically adjusted to this dynamic environment in a number of different ways. Specifically, our inventory is high quality and it's as clean as it has been in several years. We are narrow and deep in core styles and collections, which puts us in a position to satisfy consumers and retail customers who are buying closer to need. Second, we have initiated actions across our brand portfolio to develop products to backfill price points that have been impacted by the stronger U.S. dollar. We have also critically reviewed the scope of our brick-and-mortar store fleet to align the number of stores with the changes in consumer, shopping behavior and the impact of digital, social and mobile technologies. The team has focused on forging stronger relationships with our customers through deep insights, compelling marketing and by creating a consistent omni-channel experience. And lastly, we have invested in our innovation and product creation engines to generate new offerings consistent with current consumer product preferences especially in the ath-leisure athletic category. We know that growth is dependent on offering the consumer a great brand experience and something that is unique beyond price and believe these initiatives will drive future growth and closer connections with our consumers. We expect that our business model will continue to generate strong free cash flow and a high quality earnings stream. I'll now focus on the key brand performances in the quarter and related strategic updates starting with Stride Rite. Stride Rite's exposure to the domestic brick-and-mortar store channel created the most significant challenge for the company in the third quarter. Sluggish macro retail traffic trends in an aggressive promotional environment presented some headwinds especially as we saw it to be less promotional. Although our store conversion improved, traffic declines persisted. Given the current retail environment in the trend in Stride Rite stores, we are taking action to refocus the Stride Rite business and update our Strategic Realignment Plan, which is focused on realigning our consumer direct priorities and resource allocation to fuel e-commerce, mobile and omni-channel initiatives. This plan, which was originally announced over a year ago, has proven to be the right direction. And we have decided to reevaluate the Stride Rite brick-and-mortar fleet with an even more critical eye. We plan to ensure optimal rationalization of our stores and to continue our investments in digital initiatives where we are seeing strong growth and great progress. This will all better align the brand with how the modern mom is shopping. At the same time, we intend to continue with our progress in thoughtfully expanding our wholesale distribution in conjunction with a strict product segmentation strategy to make the brand more accessible to consumers. We expect the result will be a healthier Stride Rite Children's Group, aligned with today's consumer, and poised to focus on the brand's best opportunities. Switching gears to Sperry. The Sperry business was essentially flat in the third quarter with adjusted revenue down less than 1%. This top line performance was softer than expected with most of the decline coming from the boat shoe category. However, the brand's product category expansion strategy has started to produce meaningful results to offset the women's fashion trend, cycling away from the boat shoes silhouette. Non-boat product categories contributed nearly half of the brand's total revenue in the quarter and delivered very strong double-digit growth, especially in vulcanized sneakers and boots. The brand also delivered a strong 380 basis point gross margin expansion in the quarter, a key initiative for us through select product price increases and the benefits from the Odysseys Await campaign. In 2015, we made investments to position Sperry for long-term sustainable growth as a global lifestyle brand. We launched the Odysseys Await platform this spring. And we're now seeing data that this investment is beginning to move the needle with the consumer, growing brand awareness, solidifying brand affinity and influencing purchasing decisions. We also brought the platform to life in a new store design that is currently being rolled out and is producing very strong double-digit comp revenue growth while nearly doubling the penetration of apparel and accessories. Although Sperry is an established business of significant size today, we believe it is still in the early stages of its lifecycle with incredible growth potential for the company. And we're excited by the early successes to move beyond its dominant position in the boat shoe category. Moving to Merrell, the Merrell brand was up 1% on a constant currency basis and remains a leader in the Performance outdoor footwear category. Its new Performance collections, Capra and All Out, continue to win at retail during the third quarter. The smaller active Lifestyle category followed a stronger Q2 with a softer Q3. But the new men's Telluride and women's Ashland collections successfully launched late in the quarter and are performing well this fall. Increasing brand awareness for Merrell is a critical opportunity, as consumers who know the brand love it. But today, the brand ranks relatively low in consumer awareness. This is a significant opportunity. The new leadership team has developed a new brand platform and product initiatives along with an aggressive go-to-market strategy designed to amplify Merrell in the marketplace and increase awareness. Merrell plans to support a more robust and compelling product assortment with the launch of the new brand platform, Do What's Natural, and associated demand creation investment. A planned comprehensive go-to-market strategy will focus on driving results at retail with key retail partnerships. Partners that signed up to present specific product franchises like the expanded Moab collection as their big story and have committed to critical space on the sales floor and other supporting investments. The strategy is in place and the partners have lined up to support this growth initiative. As a company, we have a balanced business model that has consistently delivered earnings in a variety of global macroeconomic environments. Our strategic advantages within the global marketplace remained clear and compelling. First, our portfolio of authentic heritage brands provides us with an opportunity to service many different consumer groups across the wide range of product categories and countries. Second, we also possessed an exceptionally strong operations platform. Third, our extensive global distribution footprint has been a competitive advantage for us for decades. And lastly, we have a deep and seasoned global team. While we expect the near-term global retail environment to remain somewhat challenging, this landscape creates some great opportunities for our brands to expand internationally. In the short-term, we are especially focused on executing against our business model, which has consistently produced strong cash flow and a high-quality earnings stream to help drive our strategic brand investments. I'm excited about the opportunities that lie ahead for our family of brands. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Mike Stornant, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, who'll provide additional commentary on our performance in the third quarter, as well as more details regarding our expectations for the balance of the year. Mike? Michael D. Stornant - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Senior VP: Thanks, Blake, and thanks to all of you for joining us on the call today. We are pleased with our earnings performance in the third quarter with adjusted earnings per share of $0.48 per share, in line with our original guidance of $0.47 to $0.49 per share. Earnings were bolstered by a strong gross margin performance and discipline around discretionary spending which allowed us to increase our marketing investment by approximately 26% and overcome a softer-than-expected revenue performance. Adjusted revenue was up 0.7% in the quarter after considering FX, store closures, and exiting the Patagonia Footwear business, and reported revenue of $678.9 million was down 4.5% compared to last year. Third quarter revenue growth was lower than expected, due primarily to several factors that impacted our North American business. The softness in Q3 revenue can be categorized as follows. Direct to consumer, predominantly Stride Rite store performance, contributed roughly one-third of the net shortfall. Footwear retail traffic in the U.S. market was softer in the quarter, and traffic for our stores was also challenged. Key tactics expected to drive improvements in comp store performance especially for our Stride Rite stores were not as productive as expected. In addition, efforts to be less promotional within our stores and online put pressure on growth. Wholesale revenue excluding our DTC channels for Sperry and Merrell contributed roughly one-third of the net shortfall, focused mainly in the North American market. The remaining softness was experienced in our North American wholesale business across several brands. During the quarter, retailers became more cautious as the U.S. retail landscape remained promotional, and inventory levels continued to increase across channels. We believe these factors impacted demand for many of our brands. We continue to believe that the fundamental strength of our operating model and the disciplined way we run our business gives us a distinct competitive advantage. Our healthy earnings performance in Q3 is evidence of this. Let me provide more insight regarding the key actions that helped to deliver our earnings results in the quarter. Gross margin in Q3 was 40%, slightly better than we forecasted and flat with the prior year, despite 60 basis points of FX headwinds. Our brands have been very proactive with strategic price increases across various categories and markets to protect or enhance gross margin, many of which were implemented in Q3. In addition, product costs were managed very effectively, highlighting the operational excellence of what we believe to be our best-in-class product development and supply chain operations. These actions helped to offset the impact of the stronger U.S. dollar in our non-U.S. markets, a lower contribution from higher margin DTC revenue and other mix shifts across the portfolio. The company remains very focused on protecting gross margin performance across the business. Adjusted operating expenses were $191 million, up $4.2 million or 2.2% versus the prior year, including a $3.4 million increase in non-cash pension expense. This result was meaningfully better than our projections as the business responded quickly to a retail environment that softened during the quarter. Variable cost declined naturally due to the lower sales volume and discretionary spending was managed effectively. The company continued to invest in important demand creation initiatives, albeit at a slightly lower level than originally planned. As mentioned, overall marketing spend was up approximately 26% in the quarter. Incentive and stock compensation expenses were lower than planned and approximately $4 million lower than last year. Adjusted operating margin was a very strong 11.9%, up significantly from our expectations entering the quarter. Net interest expense in the quarter was approximately $9 million or $1 million lower than the prior year, reflecting the year-over-year principal reductions, including year-to-date voluntary principal payments of $58 million made in the first quarter, and a lower interest rate on our term loan driven by our declining leverage ratio. The adjusted quarterly tax rate of 30.4% was higher than projected and higher than the prior year due mostly to a shift in the jurisdictional mix and the timing of certain discrete items. The reported tax rate in the quarter was 29%. In addition to a solid quarterly earnings performance, the company's balance sheet remains very strong. We ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $196.4 million and net debt of $629 million, down $236 million since Q3 of 2014 and down $544 million since the acquisition of PLG in 2012. Our current leverage ratio is 2.3 times compared with 4.0 time at closing, and we project full-year adjusted EBITDA, as defined by our credit agreement, to be in the range of $340 million to $350 million. Third quarter accounts receivable improved by $109.3 million or 22.6%, benefiting from the financing agreement entered into in Q4 of 2014, and from continued improvements in DSO and cash collections. Inventories were up 6.3% due mostly to lower-than-anticipated sales in the quarter and incremental investments in cold weather product for Sperry in advance of Q4. We believe the quality of our inventory today is very high, with a healthy aging relative to last year. We continue to use disciplined tactics to manage inventory levels, which includes adjusting the supply chain inflow where appropriate, maximizing selling opportunities within our own DTC channels, working closely with retailers on future demand planning, and liquidating non-core items due to the traditional closeout channels. Inventory levels appear to be relatively high across the retail landscape, including traditional closeout channels. And therefore, we expect that it will take a few quarters to manage inventories down to a normalized level. As our current inventory position is clean and largely constitutes core styles, we believe our approach is preferable to liquidating otherwise good inventory and overly reduced prices. During Q3, we took advantage of our healthy credit standing, strong balance sheet and favorable market conditions to amend our senior secured credit facility, which, among other things, extended the term by nearly two years, upsized the revolver capacity to $500 million, and resulted in more favorable pricing. This amendment is projected to provide us greater capacity as we consider strategic opportunities and more flexibility related to certain restricted payments, including future dividends and share repurchases. On a year-to-date basis, we repurchased approximately 447,500 shares of the company's stock. We have just over $187 million remaining under the stock buyback program approved by our Board of Directors in 2014 and plan to continue to look for favorable buyback opportunities over the balance of the year. Now, let me turn to our 2015 guidance for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year. During Q3, macroeconomic challenges in international markets persisted, and the U.S. retail market softened. We believe these conditions will continue in the short-term and the expectations for a strong holiday season remain mixed. As a result, we are updating our Q4 and full-year revenue and earnings guidance as follows. Adjusted Q4 revenue is now expected to be flat to down low-single digits compared with Q4 2014, a quarter when we experienced growth of 9.2%. Reported quarterly revenue will be in line – will be in the range of $750 million to $770 million or down approximately 5% to 7.5%. Adjusted full-year revenue is now expected to be up low-single digits and reported full-year revenue is now expected to be $2.69 billion to $2.71 billion or down 2% to 2.5%. We now expect Q4 gross margin to be up slightly despite a 100-basis-point headwind from FX. Full-year gross margin is expected to be flat with the prior year. Adjusted Q4 operating expenses are now expected to be down low-single digits compared to last year despite a $5.6 million increase in non-cash pension expense. For the full year, adjusted operating expenses are expected to be up very low-single digits despite a $16 million increase in non-cash pension expense. Net interest and other expenses are expected to improve in Q4 by approximately $8 million as a result of lower debt position, lower pricing under the new credit facility, and other benefits. The full-year adjusted effective tax rate is now expected to be in the range of 26.5% to 27%. This rate is lower than our previous guidance of approximately 27.5% as a result of a shift in jurisdictional mix of taxable income and some discrete benefits expected to be recognized in the fourth quarter. Based on all of these factors, Q4 adjusted earnings per share are now expected to be $0.31 to $0.34 per share, an increase of approximately 3% to 13% compared with last year, and full-year adjusted earnings per share is now expected to be $1.44 to $1.47 per share. I also wanted to provide an update on revenue guidance for Merrell and Sperry. Given the aforementioned global headwinds and challenging retail environment, we now expect Merrell's constant currency revenue to be flat with last year and Sperry to deliver low-single digit constant currency growth for the full year. With regards to Merrell, continued strong growth in the Performance category is forecasted to be offset by softness in our active Lifestyle segment along with some specific regional challenges, given the brand's expansive international footprint. For Sperry, strong growth in boots, vulcanized and active styles, coupled with the steady growth in consumer direct and international are forecasted to be partially offset by softness in the boat category. I will now provide an update on the go-forward strategy for our brick-and-mortar fleet especially for Stride Rite stores. Blake spoke to our Stride Rite business and our Strategic Realignment Plan in his prepared remarks. And now, I will provide some additional color on specific steps we are taking to improve the returns in this important but underperforming segment of the business. Our Strategic Realignment Plan was initiated in July 2014 and updated during our Q2 earnings call. In July, we shared an updated plan to ultimately close 175 stores with approximately 120 stores expected to close by the end of 2015. As a reminder, we shuttered 59 doors in 2014 under this plan. Based on current store performance and trends and consumer shopping preferences, we now anticipate closing an additional 25 Stride Rite stores, increasing the ultimate closure count from 175 stores to 200 stores across the portfolio. We are currently reviewing our lease exit strategy and negotiating with our landlords, a process that will continue through the balance of the year. We still expect to close at least 120 stores under the plan by the end of 2015. The remaining store closures are planned to happen in 2016 or at a normal lease expiration, and this would be determined based on the outcome of our negotiations. For Stride Rite, this would leave a go-forward fleet of approximately 125 doors. This reconstituted fleet is expected to be much more productive and profitable, located in a combination of viable, specialty, and outlet centers across the U.S., and most importantly, in line with the go-forward strategy of the brand. As a result of incremental cost associated with store closures and further reorganization changes across the portfolio, we now expect reported diluted earnings per share in the range of $1.28 to $1.31 per share for fiscal 2015. We will provide more details on the Strategic Realignment Plan and associated costs and savings as part of our fourth quarter conference call. Before we open the call up to take questions, I want to emphasize just a few points. The leadership team at Wolverine remains incredibly focused on those initiatives and activities that will reenergize growth and allow us to fully leverage our great global brand portfolio. As we have done in the past, we will continue to operate in a diligent and disciplined manner both in the execution of our business model and the management of our working capital to deliver consistent profit and cash flow for our shareholders. A key priority for cash will be to fuel organic growth by investing in key initiatives related to omni-channel expansion, international opportunities, product innovation, and further talent acquisition. As always, we planned to continue to carefully evaluate other opportunities including share repurchases and strategic acquisitions. Thanks for your time this morning. We will now turn the call back over to the operator. Operator?