Donald T. Grimes
Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets
Thank you, Blake, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Blake's comments focus on the company's strategic direction and the terrific progress we've made over the last year in successfully integrating the 4 new brands, while maintaining, if not accelerating, the momentum of all of our brands in the marketplace. The powerful combination of disciplined execution, operational excellence and outstanding brand performance has helped elevate the profile for Wolverine Worldwide. Our progress to this point has been exceptional. And as we turn our attention from acquisition integration to business optimization, I'd like to echo Blake's enthusiasm about the very bright outlook for our 16-brand portfolio. Earlier this morning, we were very pleased to announce record financial results for the company's third fiscal quarter that ended September 7, 2013. This represents the third full fiscal quarter for the company that includes results from the Sperry Top-Sider, Saucony, Stride Rite and Keds brands, which were acquired almost exactly 1 year ago today. Let me remind everyone that unless otherwise noted, all financial results in my comments are adjusted to exclude acquisition-related transaction and integration expenses. Turning to the third quarter's revenue results. Consolidated revenue was a record $716.7 million, representing growth of 103% versus prior year reported revenue and excellent 9% growth versus prior year pro forma revenue. Foreign exchange had minimal impact on the quarter's revenue growth. As we expected going into the quarter, retailers did, in fact, place orders closer to need and are at one shipment. As a result, we're up almost 20% in the quarter. Demonstrating the broad strength of our portfolio, we were pleased to see growth from all major geographic regions. Revenue in the U.S., our largest market, grew in the upper single digits in the quarter versus prior year pro forma revenue and has grown at a double-digit rate through the first 3 quarters. Revenue from the EMEA, Latin America and Asia Pacific regions all grew at a double-digit pace in the quarter, again, versus prior year pro forma revenue. It's very gratifying to see the nice performance from Europe. Although only one quarter, the results helped underscore our belief that we're past the low point of that region's recent economic difficulties. Turning now to the results by operating group and brand. The Lifestyle Group, which, again, consists of the Sperry Top-Sider, Hush Puppies, Stride Rite and Keds brands, delivered revenue of $295.8 million in the quarter, a strong 9.6% increase over the prior year's pro forma revenue. Both Keds and Sperry Top-Sider generated impressive double-digit revenue growth. Sperry has now grown its global business at a double-digit rate for 16 consecutive quarters, quite an accomplishment. The brand's men's business was very strong across all channels in the quarter, but the women's business was cycling against exceptionally strong shipments in the prior year of sequined vulcanized product, business that wasn't repeated this year. Direct-to-consumer results for Sperry Top-Sider in the quarter were simply phenomenal. Comp store sales grew over 20% on the strength of significantly higher conversion and higher average ticket. We project that we will end the fiscal year with approximately 50 Sperry Top-Sider specialty and outlet stores, capitalizing on the great momentum of the brand. At Keds, turnaround continues, fueled by the powerful momentum from both the partnership with Taylor Swift and the product collaboration with Kate Spade. As Blake mentioned, Keds also recently introduced exclusive product offerings in partnership with teen retailer Hollister, a significant step in the brand's strategy to expand market share and reach a broader and younger base of consumers. Hush Puppies had mixed results during Q3, as excellent double-digit revenue growth in the U.S. and Latin America and a solid gain in Asia Pacific were more than offset by continued challenges for the brand in Europe and Canada. The Stride Rite wholesale business delivered its strongest revenue quarter ever, illustrating the brand's successful transformation and ongoing focus on building strong and lasting connections with consumers, with an unmatched portfolio of children's footwear brands. Our Performance Group, consisting of Merrell, Saucony, Chaco, Cushe and Patagonia Footwear, posted revenue of $254.1 million, an impressive gain of 13.4% compared to prior year pro forma revenue. The outstanding results were well balanced, as Merrell, Saucony, Chaco and Cushe all generated double-digit revenue growth in the quarter. Merrell's strong results in the quarter reflect growth from each of the Performance Outdoor, Outside Athletic and Active Lifestyle categories, with the latter being especially gratifying because we've been working very hard to regain traction with the brand's casual offerings. Saucony had another impressive quarter and continues to deliver with innovative products that stand out in the marketplace, including Omni 12, an Editor's Choice from Runner's World Magazine; and Carrera, the best cross-country shoe from Running Network. Saucony continues to gain market share in the all-important run specialty channel, growing at more than twice the rate of the overall category, and was the #2 brand in that channel for the first time in the month of August. Chaco had a strong Q3 compared to the prior year, driven by strong at-once demand for the classic Z sandals and a nice lift from the MyChacos initiative, which are customizable Chaco sandals available online at chacos.com. And Cushe had a notable double-digit increase this quarter and continued to gain traction in the U.S. with important retailers such as REI, Dillards and Flip Flop Shops. The Heritage Group, consisting of Wolverine, Cat Footwear, Bates, Sebago, Harley-Davidson Footwear and HyTest, had revenue of $144.6 million, up slightly compared to the prior year. The global Cat Footwear business had a solid quarter, as double-digit growth in the U.S. was driven by strong at-once demand. The increase for the Wolverine brand was driven mainly by improvement in Canada and better business in EMEA, and Harley-Davidson delivered another quarter of growth driven by the success from the brand's new lifestyle offerings. Gross margin of 39.9% in the quarter was up 70 basis points over the prior year's reported gross margin. The excellent gross margin performance was driven by a greater percentage of business from high-margin, consumer-direct operations and select price increases that were instituted earlier in the year. These benefits were only partially offset by higher product costs, incremental LIFO expense and negative variances on FX-forward contracts. We believe there is a real opportunity to continue to drive organic gross margin expansion via strategic selling price increases, while leveraging with our third-party factory base the full power of our 100 million units per year brand portfolio. The company reported operating expenses in the third quarter of $199.7 million, which included $7.4 million of acquisition-related transaction and integration expenses, primarily related to transitional headcount cost and professional services in support of our successful migration of the newly acquired brands to our SAP platform. Excluding the transaction and integration expenses, SG&A was $192.3 million or 26.8% of sales versus 25.3% of sales in the prior year. Compared to the prior year, the SG&A increase in the quarter includes $4.6 million of amortization expense related to purchase price accounting, $9 million of incremental pension and incentive comp expense, increases in brand building investments and the impact of a higher portion of business coming from consumer-direct channels. Due to the SAP conversion late in Q3, the company took a measured approach to discretionary spending as a contingency against any shipment delays or other major issues that might have resulted from the system change. As a testament to the extraordinarily detailed planning that accompanied the project, the conversion went very smoothly without any significant issues. A portion of the deferred discretionary expenses will occur in Q4. Net interest expense in Q3 was $11.9 million, consisting of both interest expense on the outstanding debt and amortization of debt fees that were capitalized at closing and are being amortized over the life of the respective loans. The reported effective tax rate for the quarter was 25.9% and reflects the benefit from the deductibility of the acquisition-related expenses, primarily in high statutory tax rate jurisdictions. Excluding acquisition-related expenses, the effective tax rate in the quarter was 27.7%, and that rate reflects a catch-up amount in the quarter for a full-year forecast that now skews taxable income more to higher tax jurisdictions than did the previous forecast. Fully diluted weighted average shares outstanding for the third quarter were 49.6 million shares. Fully diluted earnings for the quarter were $1.16 per share, a 61.1% increase versus the prior year's $0.72 per share, an exceptional result. Recall that we announced in July a 2-for-1 stock split to be paid in the form of a stock dividend on November 1 to shareholders of record on October 1. These quarterly earnings numbers are not adjusted for the upcoming stock split. The outstanding earnings results in the quarter were driven by strength in our legacy business and excellent earnings accretion from the PLG acquisition of $0.35 per share. Please be reminded that we are calculating accretion by subtracting incremental interest expense, amortization expense related to purchase price accounting for long-lived intangible assets and net synergies from the operating income of the acquired brands, all on an after-tax basis. Earnings accretion in Q4 will be impacted by both the seasonality of the PLG brand's business and the shift of certain discretionary expenses into the latter part of the year. Switching gears to the balance sheet. Total accounts receivable and inventories at quarter end were each up over the prior year by more than 70% due to the inclusion of our 4 new brands. Day sales outstanding were up modestly over the prior year due to a different mix of customers and credit terms resulting from the new brand acquisitions. Inventories at quarter end, although up versus the prior year, were below our forecast due to strong at-once orders, particularly in the last few weeks of the quarter. We finished the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $147.8 million and net debt just under $1 billion at $994.3 million, the first quarter end since the transaction close at which net debt has been below $1 billion and a full $179 million lower than net debt just 1 year ago, reflecting both the powerful cash flow generation of our business and the company's commitment to use this cash flow to deleverage as quickly as possible. To that end, in addition to the mandatory principal amortization, we've made a $35 million voluntary principal payment on our term loan B in the quarter. Operating free cash flow through the first 3 quarters of the year was $95.6 million, including $22.7 million of operating free cash flow in Q3. Further to the balance sheet and our capital structure, as Blake noted in his comments, tomorrow marks the one-year anniversary date of the closing of the PLG acquisition. And that milestone, combined with our strong operating performance in the year since closing, is providing a great opportunity to refinance our interest-bearing debt. More specifically, we've been working in the past couple of months to amend and extend our current senior secured credit agreement, the result of which will be an increase in our lower cost term loan A to $775 million, the retirement of our higher cost term loan B, the maturity of the credit agreement being extended 1 year to October 2018 and the modification of a handful of other terms and conditions, all to the company's benefit. We expect to close of the refinancing later this week and the result will be a reduction in annualized cash interest of approximately $4 million. The refinancing will result in a charge in Q4 related to the early extinguishment of debt of approximately $21 million. The vast majority of this charge is a noncash write-off of a portion of the debt fees that we capitalized on the transaction closing date last year, with only about $1.2 million related to cash cost associated with the refinancing. As a result of this charge, fiscal 2014 interest expense will be further lowered by an approximate $3 million reduction in the amortization of capitalized debt fees. Even with the incremental cost of the interest rate swap arrangement that kicks in this month, this timely refinancing, along with pricing reductions driven by our lower leverage, will help lower our full year interest expense next year by approximately $8 million, an excellent result. Turning to our outlook for the balance of the year. The excellent 9% revenue growth in Q3 raised our year-to-date revenue growth to 7.7%, a solid performance in the context of a European economy that is still struggling and the uncertainty that surrounds the U.S. market. That said, given cautionary commentary by some key U.S. and European retail partners regarding the holiday season, we believe it's prudent to narrow our full year revenue guidance to a range of $2.71 billion to $2.73 billion, representing full year growth in the range of 6.4% to 7.1% versus 2012 pro forma revenue. This full year range results in guidance for the fourth fiscal quarter of $750 million to $780 million or a growth versus prior year pro forma revenue in the range of 3.2% to 6%. Due to the very strong year-to-date earnings performance, we're increasing our expectations for full year earnings to a range of $2.73 to $2.83 per share and growth in the range of 19.2% to 23.6% versus the prior year earnings per share of $2.29. Further adjusting for the nonrecurring tax benefits recorded in the prior year, our increased full year earnings guidance represents growth in the range of 30% to 34.8%. Included in this outlook is the expectation of full year accretion from the PLG acquisition of approximately $0.75 per share, outstanding result from the first full year of ownership. The increased full year earnings guidance suggests Q4 earnings in the range of $0.30 to $0.40 per share compared to prior year earnings of $0.48 per share. In addition to the expectation of modest earnings dilution from the PLG acquisition in the quarter, there are several other items that, in the aggregate, will negatively impact year-over-year earnings growth by approximately $0.23 per share, including: a, an unusually low 7% effective tax rate in the prior year's fourth quarter versus the normalized effective tax rate this year, a difference of approximately $0.10 per share; b, $5.5 million or $0.07 per share of incremental incentive comp expense, as normalized levels of incentive comp this year are being compared against unusually low incentive comp expense in the prior year; c, $3 million or $0.04 per share of incremental non-cash pension expense, an item we've been noting all fiscal year; and finally, d, approximately 2 million more of weighted average shares outstanding in this -- the quarter this year versus last, which is worth about $0.02 per share. Not included in the earnings guidance just mentioned are the transaction and integration expenses associated with the PLG acquisition and the debt extinguishment charges related to the opportunistic refinancing that I discussed. Also not included in the guidance is the impact of an important initiative related to our owned manufacturing operation. Over the last few years, the company's own manufacturing footprint has included 2 locations in the Dominican Republic. The factories in the DR focus production today primarily on Sebago and Wolverine-branded products. After careful study and deliberation over the last several months, we are announcing today that we have decided to no longer operate our own factories in the Dominican Republic. While this decision will result in the closure of one factory, we're still in the process of evaluating strategic alternatives for a second factory in Santo Domingo, including a possible sale to a third party. This strategic decision is based on both the benefits of sourcing from larger, more efficient producers and by our desire to focus on our core competencies of creating innovative products and building enduring global lifestyle brands. We expect the total charge related to the initiative to be in the range of $7 million to $10.4 million, of which approximately $5.1 million to $7.1 million will be noncash. We expect most of these amounts will be recorded in the fourth fiscal quarter. We estimate annualized pre-tax savings of approximately $4 million, although the 2014 benefit will be a bit less due to the timing of the contemplated actions. All in all, a very positive development for the company and for our shareholders. Thanks, everyone, for listening this morning. We'll now turn the call back over to the operator to take your questions.