Nicholas P. Hotchkin
Analyst · Credit Suisse
Thanks, Jim, and good afternoon, everyone. The second quarter contains similar themes to the first quarter, namely: a very challenging recruiting environment, partially mitigated by good progress on our cost agenda. Total campaign revenue declined 4% on a constant currency basis with total paid weeks down 2.5%. We had disappointing top line trends across both the meetings business and weightwatchers.com. Operating income was essentially flat versus the prior year, with tight cost control offsetting our revenue decline. Reported Q2 EPS was $1.15, excluding a $21.7 million or a $0.24 per share onetime charge related to the write-off of fees triggered by our Q2 refinancing. Q2 EPS was $1.39 versus $1.36 a year ago. The key challenge for our business remains attracting new members. This has been the case in meetings for some time and during the quarter, we experienced heightened pressure in our weightwatchers.com business. While our spring ad campaigns provided some early buzz, the benefit was short-lived. Our prior forecast had assumed the recruitment trend would improve, but the opposite has transpired. Specifically, second quarter recruitment missed our going-in expectations for both meetings and online and was significantly negative for the quarter in both segments. We now expect these trends to continue for the remainder of this year. I'll now provide details of each segment's second quarter performance versus prior, as well as outline our updated volume output. Starting with weightwatchers.com. While second quarter Internet revenues grew approximately 6.6% and paid weeks rose 4.4%, sign-ups were negative in our English-speaking markets, resulting in end-of-period active subscribers rising only 1.4% versus the prior year. Importantly, while we are challenged in finding new subscribers, retention remains unchanged at 9 months, which indicates no change in satisfaction with our weightwatchers.com offering among current subscribers. Given the weak sign-up trend, we now expect weightwatchers.com paid weeks for the back half of the year to decline in the mid-single digit range. Within the meetings business, total NACO revenue in the second quarter declined 4.7% versus the prior year. Paid weeks were down 10% and attendance declined 14.5%. In-meeting product sales declined 8.9%, the result of lower attendance as product sales per attendee were up 6.6%. The impact of 4 franchise acquisitions completed between September and March contributed 2.2% to NACO meetings revenue in the quarter. In July, post-Q2 close, we completed the purchase of 3 additional franchise territories: the Columbus region for $23.5 million, West Virginia region for $16 million and Reno for $4 million. As a result of the 7 acquisitions we have done over the past year, North America is now about 87% company-owned. Within B2B, the strategic business continues to perform well, with revenue up nearly 30% in Q2 and we see significant growth potential for this business. The regional business, which recall, is not subsidized by employers, continues to be impacted by the same recruitment dynamics as our overall business, and sales were down about 1%. For the second half of the year, we expect continued softness in the NACO meetings business with volume declines in the mid to high teens for both attendance and paid weeks. Next, the U.K. meetings business. This market has been our most troubled, with significant revenue and volume declines versus prior. The key factor remains an aggressive local competitor. Note that over the past few weeks, both Jim and I have been to the U.K. to assess the situation firsthand, and the team is aggressively focused on what it will take to reverse the recent trend. We have appointed Jeanine Lemmens who previously led the turnaround of our Benelux operations and restored that region to growth, to lead the U.K. effort. Second quarter U.K. paid weeks declined 19% and attendance was down approximately 20%. We expect mid- to high-20s decline in both paid weeks and attendances for the balance of the year. Finally, the Continental Europe meetings business. Paid weeks declined 1.6% in the quarter and attendance fell 6.7%. While we continue to benefit from a higher incoming actives base from prior year, enrollments are challenged in light of the broader macro backdrop in that region. Looking forward, we expect the back half of the year to be slightly softer than the first half. Our other revenues, which include franchise commissions and licensing revenue, declined 11% in Q2 versus the same period last year. Licensing sales were down in absolute terms but up about 2%, excluding a prior year onetime benefit from a vendor termination. In summary, we expect total company year-over-year revenue to decline by low double digits in the second half and high single digits for the full year. For the full year, we expect total meetings revenue to be down low- to mid-teens and online to be roughly flat. For total company paid weeks, we expect the second half to be down high-single digits and down mid- to high-single digits for the year. On to some specifics for our other key financial metrics for the quarter. In Q2, gross margin was down 70 basis points to 59.8%. This was better than our expectation with mix and cost savings being the primary drivers. Relative to the prior year, the 70 basis point decline was the function of mix and pricing benefits, more than offset by a lower meeting average, coupled with pressure on product costs, our retail upgrades and the initial impact from our U.S. service provider compensation changes. Note that both the meetings and the weightwatchers.com segments saw declines in their gross margins, though the majority of the weightwatchers.com decline is attributed to a change in managerial cost allocations as it now absorbs the higher proportion of technology and call center expenses versus the prior year. Meetings pricing is measured by lecture income per paid week, was up about 3.9% in Q2, still benefiting from the 2011 price increases. This metric also benefited from the fact that last year, we ran a BOGO in the spring in NACO while this year, we did not. Although we beat our gross margin forecast in Q2 as well as in Q1, we don't expect to beat our forecast for the remainder of the year. We expect our gross margin to be down significantly in the second half due to a combination of further operating de-leverage from a weaker top line and sent-up [ph] spends related to our U.S. service provider compensation initiative, noting that over 75% of this 2013 spend will occur in the second half. There will also be less benefit mix as the weightwatchers.com business' top line slows. We expect gross margin for the full year to be down about 150 basis points versus prior year with Q4 worse than Q3 in the second half. Marketing spend was down about $18 million or 22% in the quarter to 14.1% of sales versus 17.3% in the year-ago period. The decline was driven largely by the elimination of inefficient dish-off [ph] spend and the lack of a men's-specific campaign in the U.S. in 2013. For the full year, we now expect marketing spend to be down by up to $50 million versus 2012, a further savings versus our prior guidance of a $40 million decline. G&A expense rose 4% in Q2 or up 100 basis points as a percent of sales to 12.6%. This is an improvement versus our earlier expectation on the heels of better savings, some deferral of investments and some onetime favorable items, namely lower stock compensation expense. We had previously guided you that the full year increase in G&A would be about $20 million. We now expect a year-over-year increase of no more than $15 million, benefiting from better cost savings. As a result of the factors I've just discussed, our total company Q2 operating profit was essentially flat, and operating margin rose 140 basis points to 33.1%. A few other metrics for the quarter. Our tax rate in the quarter was 38.5%, which we continue to expect for the balance of the year. Foreign currency had a negligible impact on results. Turning to cash flow. Future cash flow operations was $64 million versus $76 million a year ago but for 2013, we expect operating cash flow in the $300 million range and expect to spend up to $65 million in CapEx while we expect D&A to be about $45 million. Turning to 2013 guidance. Given the top line environment and our belief that this will not moderate for the remainder of the year, we are adjusting our EPS range for 2013 to $3.55 to $3.70 versus the prior range of $3.60 to $3.90. We acknowledge we came in ahead of our Q2 expectations and are pleased with the progress that we're making on the cost side to help defray the volume picture. That said, the impact of weaker enrollments really starts to flow through to the P&L in the back half of the year and into 2014. Before we open it up for questions, I'd like to talk about 2014 and to detail why we believe we will deliver lower profits and EPS next year. We normally don't discuss full year guidance until much later and have yet to launch our formal budgeting process, but given the 2013 recruitment reality, we believe we have enough visibility to make some general observations. We are very focused on changing our recruitment trajectory in the January 2014 winter diet season and are excited about what we are going to bring to market. That said, regardless of the success of our recruitment drive, the reality is that we will have a much lower actives base at the start of 2014 than we had at the start of 2013. More specifically, for 2014, we expect the meetings actives base will be even lower than it was at the start of this year, down in the mid-teens range, and we expect that we will also have a lower starting base in online in the range of low- to mid-single digits negative. This is unlike 2013 where we entered the year with a higher starting actives base in online that partially offset the drag from the lower active meetings member base. Irrespective of 2014 recruitments, the financial impact of our lower 2014 starting membership base is an approximately $50 million headwind on operating profit for the year. One other factor to consider for 2014. As we look ahead to a potentially rising interest rate environment, we have entered into a $1.5 billion interest rate swap to manage our risk on our floating-rate debt. The swaps will kick in, in the first quarter of 2014 when our current swap matures. It will lock in interest rates and as a result, approximately 60% of our debt will be at a fixed rate. While this is a prudent risk management step to take, overall interest expense will increase by about $14 million in 2014 relative to 2013. Rest assured that as we plan for 2014, we will continue to hit costs hard. In addition to the marketing savings, which are more easily seen in the P&L, a few other examples of what we are working on include tight controls of discretionary spend, consolidation of vendors and consultants and early work on supply chain initiatives. We've saved over $20 million year-to-date and expect us to end 2013 having generated in the neighborhood of $50 million in gross savings with progress from every region and functional area. The response from the Weight Watcher team has been tremendous, and Jim and I see further efficiency opportunities to explore, but our broad assumption is that a substantial portion of these incremental savings will likely be used to fund the increase in U.S. service provider compensation and our future growth initiatives. While we have yet to build our 2014 plan, the factors we've discussed represent a 2014 pretax earnings drag of $64 million. This is the expected earnings base onto which we'll layer our 2014 volume plan. We look forward to sharing more details behind our strategic plans at our Fall Investor Day, which Jim indicated will be held on November 6. More details will be forthcoming but please, hold the date. We would like to open this up to your questions. Operator?