Raj Agrawal
Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead
Thank you, Hikmet, and good afternoon, everyone. My comments today will start with the second quarter performance of our business, and then I'll offer some thoughts on our expectations for the remainder of the year. As Hikmet discussed earlier, we faced the challenging business environment in the second quarter. So we are encouraged to see faster improvement in our business than we expected just a few months ago, accentuated by positive consumer transaction growth and very strong cross-border principal growth in June and July. Second quarter revenue about $1.1 billion declined 17% compared to the prior year period, while adjusted constant currency revenue, which excludes the 2019 divestitures declined 11%. Currency translation net of the impact from hedges reduced second quarter revenue by approximately $46 million, compared to the prior year, primarily due to the depreciation of the Argentine peso. In the consumer to consumer segment, revenue declined 12% or 11% on a constant currency basis, due to the transaction declines and other mixed impacts. Transaction declined 8% for the quarter, driven by decreases in the retail business, which were primarily attributable to reduce consumer mobility resulting from COVID-19. Retail transaction declines were partially offset by the exceptional growth in digital money transfer, which I'll elaborate on shortly. Drilling down into the business, as conditions stabilized and economies began to reopen over the quarter, we saw substantial and broad improvement in trends across our geographies and channels. We ended with 6% transaction growth in June and carried on with 10% in July, which was somewhat bolstered by a holiday benefits. Global C2C cross border principle increased 1% on a reported basis or 3% constant currency, with principle per transaction or PPT up 7% or 9% constant currency. The increase in PPT was primarily due to higher PPT in our retail business, which we believe was largely due to a shift in customer mix and changes in customer behavior changes in the mix of our digital money transfer business also contributed to the higher PPT, notably more account to account transactions and digital partnership transactions. The spread between C2C transactions and revenue growth in the quarter was 4% or 3% constant currency, which is largely attributable to mix shifts in our business from faster growth of certain digital transactions with lower yields. Digital money transfer revenues of including westernunion.com and digital partnerships increased 48% or 50% constant currency and accounted for 22% of total C2C revenue and 31% of C2C transactions in the quarter. The spread between digital revenue and transaction growth was attributable to a greater mix of digital partnerships and strategic pricing actions for westernunion.com. We continue to drive forward with our dynamic pricing strategy, which focuses on agile pricing capabilities to drive more customers, transactions and revenue over the long-term. Westernunion.com revenue grew 33% or 34% constant currency with cross border revenue up approximately 48%, partially offset by continued domestic decline. Westernunion.com’s transactions increased 50%. Our digital partnership business continued to gain momentum in the quarter as transactions ramped up in our digital white label business. Turning to the regional results, in most geographies and channels trends improve sequentially from Low's in April to June and into July. North America, revenue decline 6% on a reported basis and 5% on a constant currency basis. And transactions declined 7%, both revenue and transaction trends improve steadily each month throughout the quarter. U.S. outbound growth was largely offset by declines in domestic money transfer with digital, continuing to drive the results. U.S. domestic money transfer continued to weigh on revenue results, but it's only 5% of total company revenues now and will likely be less meaningful over time. Revenue in the Europe and CIS region decreased 10% on a reported basis or 9% constant currency. Transaction has grew 4% due to strengthen in Russia benefiting from the Sberbank partnership. Strong digital growth was more than offset by retail declines. However, we are encouraged to see retail transaction trends improved throughout the quarter. Indeed, some countries, including Germany and Switzerland even had transaction trends that were better than pre-COVID, it seems that Europe is benefiting from a strong social safety net in many countries, which should help to maintain stability along with strong customer acquisition. Revenue in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia region decreased 13% or 12% constant currency and transactions declined 1%. The spread between revenue and transaction growth was attributable to strong growth in Saudi Arabia, driven by our partnership with Saudi Telecom. The UAE experienced softening trends as service related industry slowed in the quarter. Revenue in Latin America, Caribbean region decreased 45% on a reported basis or 35% constant currency on transaction declines of 41%. Declines in the region were due to restrictive government policy responses in many countries. We anticipate that recovery in this region may lag due to it later onset of COVID-19 more restrictive government policy responses and a smaller social safety net in many countries. Revenue in the APAC region declined 14% on a reported basis or 13% constant currency are on transaction declines of 18%. On a positive note, Australia, which is an important market, grew both revenue and transactions in the quarter, including for retail. Business solutions revenue decreased 17% on a reported basis or 15% constant currency and represented 7% of company revenues than the quarter. Revenue declines were the result of softening trends and verticals with more exposure to COVID-19, including education, travel and tourism and small and medium-sized enterprises. Other revenues represented 5% of total company revenues have declined 56% in the quarter. The decline was largely due to the 2019 divestitures, the impact of COVID-19 and depreciation of the Argentine peso. Other revenues primarily consists of retail bill payment in both Argentina and the U.S., as well as money owners. Turning to margins and profitability. I will focus on consolidated margins, as segment margins are not comparable with the prior year period due to the divestitures and expense allocation changes implemented in the first quarter of 2020. Consolidated GAAP operating margin was 19.9% on the quarter, compared to 19.3% in the prior year period, the increase was primarily due to productivity savings and additional cost management measures partially offset by revenue declines associated with COVID-19 and the 2019 divestitures. Additional cost savings realized in the quarter reflects both the timing of certain expenses and specific actions, such as delaying hiring, limiting travel, and reprioritizing investments. We incurred $5 million of restructuring and related expenses in the second quarter related to our productivity program. We continue to expect total restructuring related expenses of approximately $150 million and to date, we have incurred $131 million. Adjusted operating margin in the second quarter was 20.4% compared to 20.3% in the prior year period with expansion driven by the same factor stated previously and adjusted for restructuring in M&A costs. Foreign exchange hedges provided a benefit of $7 million in the current quarter and a benefit of $6 million in the prior year period. The GAAP effective tax rate was 16.2% in the quarter compared to 17.5% in the prior year period, while the adjusted tax rate was 15.7% compared to 16.8% in the prior year period. The decreasing GAAP in adjusted effective tax rates was primarily due to the effect of the 2019 divestitures. GAAP earnings per share in the quarter was $0.39 compared to $1.42 in the prior year period. The decrease is primarily attributable to the gain on sale from the divestitures in 2019 and to a lesser extent current year revenue decline associated with COVID-19 and the divestitures, partial offset include productivity savings, additional costs management measures and lower share count in the current year period. Adjusted earnings per share in the quarter was $0.41 cents, compared to $0.45 in the prior year period with a decrease due to the factors stated previously and adjusted for the gain on sale and restructuring M&A costs. Turning to our cash flow and balance sheet. Year-to-date cash flow from operating activities was $348 million. Capital expenditures in the quarter were approximately $49 million. At the end of the quarter, we had cash of $1.2 billion and debt of $3.1 billion. Our financial position is among the strongest in the industry, we have an undrawn $1.5 million revolving credit facility and no significant debt maturities until 2022. We returned nearly $93 million in dividends to shareholders in the second quarter. And the share repurchase program was on parts. The outstanding share count at quarter end was 411 million shares, and we had $783 million remaining under our share repurchase authorization, which expires in December 2021. Now moving to our 2020 business updates. As Hikmet mentioned, we will not be providing an outlook at this time, but instead we'll provide some perspective on second half of the year. We consider a variety of forecast to inform our understanding of the economic environment and how it will impact revenue generation. We think the prevailing macro outlook for gradual improvement over the second half of 2020 is a reasonable baseline for the business. However, we anticipate some quarterly variation related to grow over in the digital white label business and strategic pricing actions taken in the second half of 2019. Additionally, we recognized that recovery may not be linear in certain geographies. For our C2C segment, we expect the overall remittance market will be down for the year. However, the World Bank’s current quarter 2020 forecast, which calls for a 20% decline in total cross quarter principle appears too pessimists. Our total cross-border principle grew 2% on a constant currency basis in the first half of the year, and grew over 20% in June and July. Based on these trends, we think we're gaining share in the market. Lastly, for our Business Solution segment, we consider global trade forecast in our projections and the prevailing view calls for gradual improvement in the second half of the year. Moving to margins, we believe that we can deliver solid margins in the second half of the year, despite softer revenue trends. As we mentioned last quarter, we have a flexible cost structure 55% to 60% of our costs are variable and 40% to 45% are fixed. Additionally, we are still on track to reach at least $50 million in cost savings in 2020, and may realize more based on recent shifts in timing of initiatives and investments. We continue to target $150 million of annual cost savings through 2022. Furthermore, we will manage across appropriately with the revenue environment. For example, we’ve increased marketing investment in westernunion.com from the first quarter to the second quarter to address the growing digital opportunity. If business trends continue to improve, investments could potentially increase in the back half of the year. Finally, we expect both the GAAP and the adjusted effective tax rates to be in the mid-teens range for 2020. To recap, we are pleased with our results in this quarter in a very challenging environment. Delivering solid margins and positive transaction growth for June, which continued into July. We see these as major wins, given the current backdrop and belief it indicates we are probably outperforming the competition. Moreover, we think the exceptional performance of the digital business this quarter confirms the digitally focused strategy we laid out last year and it has us on the right path to drive durable long-term values for all our stakeholders. Thank you for joining our call today and operator, we are now ready to take questions.