Earnings Labs

The Western Union Company (WU)

Q4 2012 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 12, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Western Union Fourth Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mike Salop, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Michael A. Salop

Analyst

Thank you, Lauren. Good afternoon, everyone. On today's call, Hikmet Ersek, Western Union's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Scheirman, EVP and Chief Financial Officer, will discuss 2012 fourth quarter and full year results and the company's outlook for 2013. Following their remarks, we will open the call for questions. The slides that accompany this call and webcast can be found at westernunion.com under the Investor Relations tab and will remain available after the call. Additional operational statistics have been provided in supplemental tables with our press release. Today's call is being recorded, and our comments include forward-looking statements. Please refer to the cautionary language in the earnings release and in Western Union's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the 2011 Form 10-K, for additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. During the call, we will discuss some items that do not conform to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. We've reconciled those items to the most comparable GAAP measures on our website, westernunion.com, under the Investor Relations section. All statements made by Western Union officers on this call are the property of The Western Union Company and subject to copyright protection. Other than the replay noted in our press release, Western Union has not authorized and disclaims responsibility for any recording, replay or distribution of any transcription of this call. I would now like to turn the call over to Hikmet Ersek.

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · William Blair

Thank you, Mike, and good afternoon, everyone. Today, we announced financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2012, which were largely consistent with the outlook we provided in late October. Scott will give you a more detailed review of the results later on the call, but I would like to spend a few minutes recapping 2012 and discussing our priorities for 2013 and beyond. Overall, the business delivered a third consecutive year of constant currency revenue growth despite challenges from compliance-related changes affecting Mexico and Latin America, economic softness in Europe and competitive pressures in some parts of Consumer Money Transfer business. Our digital and electronic account-based money transfer business grew rapidly, and we continue to see our online channel attract new customers. For the year, electronic channel revenue increased 27% and now represents 4% of total company revenue. Although we're seeing in business solutions, revenue growth was not as strong as planned, we made good progress integrating the Travelex acquisition and further expanding our product offerings and geographic reach. Some of the great aspects of our business model is generating strong cash flow. In 2012, we continued this trend and cash from operating activities reached approximately $1.2 billion last year. Over the course of 2012, more than $1 billion was returned to shareholders through a combination of stock buyback and dividends. Moving to 2013, our strategies are focused on 3 key initiatives: Strengthening our Consumer Money Transfer business; driving growth of customers and usage of Western Union Business Solutions; and generating and deploying strong cash flow for our shareholders. Consumer Money Transfer remains a great business to be in. Remittance market is growing, and we are a market leader with strong assets. As we discussed at the end of last year, we have faced competitive pressures and…

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · William Blair

Thank you, Hikmet. As I review 2012 financial results, I will primarily focus on the fourth quarter. Similar information for the full year can be found in our press release and the attached financial schedules. Overall for the quarter, we reported consolidated revenue of $1.4 billion, which was flat with the year ago quarter on both a reported and constant currency basis. Consolidated pro forma constant currency revenue, including a full quarter of Travelex Global Business Payments in the prior year period, decreased 1% and was negatively impacted by 1% by the Vigo and Orlandi Valuta brands. Revenue for the Vigo and Orlandi Valuta brands declined over 50% primarily due to the Mexico location reductions in the third quarter, which resulted from the Southwest Border compliance changes. Vigo and Orlandi Valuta represented about 2% of total company revenue for the full year. In the consumer-to-consumer segment, revenue decreased 2% on a reported and constant currency basis, with transactions down 1% compared to the prior year period. Excluding Vigo and Orlandi Valuta, Western Union branded consumer-to-consumer constant currency revenue grew slightly in the quarter on transaction growth of 3%. C2C cross-border principal declined 3% in the quarter or 2% on a constant currency basis, an improvement from last quarter's rate. Western Union branded principal increased in the fourth quarter. C2C principal per transaction declined 2% year-over-year, which also represented an improvement from the third quarter rate. Turning to the regions. C2C revenue in the Europe and CIS region, which represented 22% of total company revenue, decreased 5% year-over-year. The decline included a negative 2% impact from currency translation. Transactions in the region were flat with the year ago quarter. Although much of Europe remains soft, Germany continued to perform well. And overall revenue transaction trends for the region improved relative to…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question is from Bob Napoli of William Blair. Robert P. Napoli - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: On your pricing investments that you've made this year, your -- if you -- your pricing gap, I think, versus competitor's has narrowed or is narrowing but is still relatively wide. How confident are you that you won't need abnormal levels of pricing investments beyond what you've announced so far?

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · William Blair

Well, Bob, thank you for the question. If you look at our business, we are pretty confident that the existing pricing action will work. We've done many pricing actions in the past. I've personally done about more than 100 pricing actions -- hundreds of pricing actions in my career. And typically, they come back after 12 to 18 months also to our revenue growth. The pricing actions we implement during the early signings, it's really too early. We started mid-November, beginning of December. But as I mentioned before, the U.S. to Mexico pricing is working so far so good pretty well. We see the price indications in December. Bank of Mexico data shows that there's a decline on principal, but we have a mid-single-digit growth, right, Scott?

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · William Blair

In Mexico.

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · William Blair

In Mexico, that corridor, so we are beating the market's earlier indications. We've been -- being in so many corridors, we adapt pricing actions to the customer needs. But we are pretty confident that we are turning back in 2014 to 1% to 3% our usual pricing investment. And so the first indications are so far, so good.

Glenn T. Fodor - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · William Blair

Okay. On your westernunion.com business, I mean, obviously, great transaction growth, 46%. Revenue growth at 16%. First, what percentage of that business is card-based, credit or debit versus ACH?

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · William Blair

Well, first of -- we don't -- I don't think we give the numbers here, which percentage is credit cards and ACH. But many is used by the cards. And are -- we are very [indiscernible] despite the growth rates here. We are getting new customers. Just a reminder, 80% of the customers are new to our brand, new to the westernunion.com. Never used Western Union, but new to Western Union data they are using. And we grew 46% on transactions. So that's the current environment, the number that's expected in westernunion.com.

Glenn T. Fodor - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · William Blair

Last question just related to that. Are there additional pricing investments in the westernunion.com sector to come?

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · William Blair

Bob, this is Scott. I don't want to get ahead of myself as far as what pricing we might be doing in certain markets for competitive reasons. But we feel like we're well positioned in westernunion.com, 80% of the customers are new. And to circle back on your one question, just to add -- to color what Hikmet said that as far as the funding methods, it's primarily credit cards for us today. But that's where we see an opportunity as we think about growing this business to provide our customers with different funding sources and payout sources, not only leveraging our 500,000 location network that being able to drop money in the bank accounts, but allowing customers to pay through ACH and other ways. So that's one of the things that allow us to get to that $500 million business by 2015.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from Tien-Tsin Huang of JPMorgan. Tien-Tsin T. Huang - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Just wanted to ask about -- I know there's a lot of detail shared here. Just -- I'm curious, the loss of Vigo and the OV business, were you able to recapture that with your pricing initiatives? What's -- what are you -- most of the intelligence telling you in terms of recapture of share?

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · JPMorgan

Well, we are basically growing on the Western Union brand business. We did not capture that on Vigo and Orlandi Valuta. We still have location loss last quarter. As you know, Tien-Tsin, about 7,000 locations in Mexico. We are very focused to expand our location network in Mexico. But the pricing actions that we did is -- was on the Western Union branded transfers, and that's working pretty well. The loss of Vigo and Orlandi Valuta is still here, and it's the majority of why the corridor is losing on the performance. But I'm very pleased with the Western Union branded price actions. Tien-Tsin T. Huang - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay, good to know. And just on the -- I'm curious, just with all the price cuts, it sounds like you still have a little bit more to do, and we'll learn more about that. But what's been the agent response to the price cuts? And I'm curious of the higher commission comment is tied in any way to the pricing investments that you're talking about or if that's separate?

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · JPMorgan

I think that's 2 separate things, Tien-Tsin. The agent response were quite positive because our brand attracts traffic to the retail network. And agents were very pleased that they can gain. Again, our ultimate goal is to grow, and it brings traffic in 2013. And they are pretty pleased on that. I did not see any agent negative reaction from market or from somewhere, I didn't hear it so far. Regarding on the agent commission. As you know, that we have the agent's commission -- agent agreements for 5 to 7 years in average. And over the few years, it has been declining. '13, we have a little bit higher commission rates, Scott, right? But generally, our goal is, as you know, bringing down the commission rates and have been situation. I don't see as an early signing that it's a competitive issue or pricing issue. I see that as agent renewal timing issue. Tien-Tsin T. Huang - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay, so it's just timing. Very good, that's good to know. Last one and I'll jump off. Just the -- you've returned a lot of capital to shareholders, obviously. But I guess the implication for '13 is a stepdown in buybacks. Is that just a -- again, is that a timing issue or a little bit of a pause, or could that actually step up as the year progresses?

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · JPMorgan

Tien-Tsin, this is Scott. We generate strong cash flows historically, $1 billion plus for sure and, historically, have been very committed to getting cash back to our shareholders. Just in 2012, between dividends and buyback, over $1 billion. In fact, in the fourth quarter, $350 million of buybacks. So we're committed, between dividends and buyback in 2013, to return $700 million. We want to continue to target an investment grade credit rating as we move forward. And Hikmet and I continually have dialogue with each other and with the Board discussing our cash flows and how to best to deploy those for our shareholders as we move forward. But our track record has been strong, and I think $700 million is a strong step forward right now.

Operator

Operator

And the next question is from Sara Gubins of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

David Chu - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

This is David Chu for Sara Gubins. What percentage of your agent base is WU branded versus non WU branded?

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

David, a majority of the agent base is WU branded, if you will. The revenue that we called out for the Vigo and Orlandi Valuta is about 2% of our revenues. So the rest of the network is really, it's a Western Union network primarily.

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Yes. And as you know, Vigo and Orlandi Valuta is mostly Mexican, Latin America.

David Chu - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Okay, great. And is there -- can you share kind of your expectations for B2B in 2013?

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Yes, David. In simple terms, we expect the revenue growth rate and profitability to improve in 2013 compared to 2012. And a couple of things have been really driving that. And first I would say is that we're in a market that's growing. The global market for trade, if you will, is probably growing anywhere from the mid-single-digits to the high-single-digits, depending upon the period. And then the team in London around the globe is very focused on driving increased sales effectiveness, so we're getting very customer-focused there. We're going to expand to more countries. A year ago, we're in 23 countries. Today, we're in 30. When we have this discussion a year from now, we're going to be in more countries. And then we also have an opportunity to diversify our product offering. An example I would give you is we have option products, forward products, but not in all countries. We have opportunities to move those products into other countries. So the simple answer coming back to it is we expect to see revenue growth and profitability improve in '13 compared to where we were in 2012. On a long-term basis, we expect our top line to grow that business in the low-double-digits from a revenue standpoint.

Operator

Operator

And the next question comes from Darrin Peller of Barclays.

Darrin D. Peller - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays

Just a quick question first on the corridors that you've actually addressed. I know you can't specifically mention all the ones by name, but just give us a sense maybe how many you've done or how many you still have to do as part of this pricing initiative this year? Can you just tell us maybe percentage-wise how many actual corridors have more to go? And then just a follow-up on pricing.

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Barclays

So corridor-wise, we won't disclose it. But there's 25% -- we plan about 25% of our revenue -- of our business putting some pricing actions. Some are related to the compliance issues, like in -- some regulatory compliance issue and U.S. to Mexico. But some of them like U.S., the Europe to Africa, and especially France to Africa. It's working pretty well. We did some in westernunion.com, the transactions growth lifted very well, and the -- we have a good traction there. And also, we are planning some U.S. to Latin America. It's in early stages. We started quite late. We do some marketing programs behind that. But please understand that for competitive reasons, I don't want to give more corridor-specific...

Darrin D. Peller - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays

That's fine, I understand. Just a quick follow-up to that, though. I mean a couple of years ago, it sound -- I remember you changed domestic pricing, and the result is very solid. You had great transaction growth pretty immediately. I think it lasted about 1.5 year, where transactions were well above what you'd even -- 20%-ish type range, and then it came down and moderated. And it seems like it's now slowing to -- I mean, you tell me, I think it was down to low-single-digit. I don't remember what you said exactly before, but it's down again. And is that because of just some of the pricing changes you're doing now that go sort of touch on the domestic corridor again and that's having an impact on revenue and transactions now? Or can you help us understand why it wasn't more sustainable, I guess?

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Barclays

I'm very pleased with the DMT -- U.S. DMT transaction growth. It's 7%.

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Barclays

Yes. During the last 3 quarters, it's grown 7% and 8% for the year. So we've got strong, I'll call it high-single-digit transaction growth. Yes, and what you're seeing is some mix where we're seeing more growth in the lower bands, call it 0 to 50. Not quite as much growth in the higher bands. But as you think about what we've done to domestic money transfer compared to having maybe not done anything, now we're seeing more transactions, more customers in the franchise. So as we think about evolving our brand and evolving our product offerings, we've got more touch points with customers. So I still -- we're still very pleased with the success of the domestic money transfer repositioning and pricing that we've done.

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Barclays

Yes. And 2 years ago, it was really going down.

Darrin D. Peller - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays

But one last question on the dot-com channel. With regard to ACH, I think that came up before. I mean that's definitely one other alternative for help -- to help you price efficiently going forward. How far off do you think you are from getting that capability in terms of more real-time and authorization to go or some of your competition going forward?

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Barclays

It depends really on the countries. We are very far on the ACH in many countries, especially in the European countries to getting money from your account. It's very common and direct in real-time. And it has definitely better interchange fees with -- than the credit cards. But most of them are still credit card transactions. And the team is very -- it's going very fast, the ACH, and the direct debit is going pretty good. So I believe that will, long term, also help our profitability on the westernunion.com.

Operator

Operator

And the next question is from Tom McCrohan of Janney.

Thomas C. McCrohan - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Janney

What was the transaction growth this quarter adjusted for the situation in Mexico?

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Janney

Are you looking for the total C2C transaction growth or just for Mexico itself?

Thomas C. McCrohan - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Janney

C2C. Total C2C.

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Janney

All right. Total C2C, it was up 3% transaction growth.

Thomas C. McCrohan - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Janney

Okay, that's helpful. And how many of your customers for the C2C segment have a bank account?

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Janney

About 70%.

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Janney

Of our senders.

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Janney

Senders and...

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Janney

And the majority have a bank account.

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Janney

Majority of the bank account.

Thomas C. McCrohan - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Janney

7-0?

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Janney

7-0, yes.

Thomas C. McCrohan - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Janney

7-0, got it. And how does your pricing in that account-to-account corridor or segment compare to your competition with these pricing actions? Are you now in line or below? Just give us some sense.

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Janney

It depends really on the corridors. It depends really -- I think they are too much gaining market share there. Just a reminder, our -- westernunion.com is growing 46%. Our account-to-account is growing 50%. And 80% of the customers are new. So we don't give specific corridor numbers, but I'm very pleased with the account-to-account transactions. You signed 115 banks and deactivated, out of the 115 banks, 60 of them and the transaction growth is about 50%.

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Janney

And, Tom, as you know, most of our business is really cash-to-cash or online-to-cash. So we're just really getting started on delivering 2 bank accounts, so not much of our business today actually goes to accounts.

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Janney

Yes, additional reports from [indiscernible].

Thomas C. McCrohan - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Janney

And so even the bank relationships that you've been growing, is that account-to-cash for the most part?

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Janney

Most of that, yes.

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Janney

Primarily, yes.

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Janney

Account-based money transfer, which is primarily account-to-cash...

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Janney

That it come to retail.

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Janney

Yes. As Hikmet and Mike mentioned, I think dropping funds into an account is an opportunity for us, for sure.

Thomas C. McCrohan - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Janney

Great. And my last question is just on the regulatory side, with this pushout, I guess, in the deadline for Rule 1073. What -- do you have any insight into how that's going to impact Western Union? And it seems like the banks will have more of a problem complying with these new rules. I just wanted to confirm that with you in how do you -- do you view that new rule as an advantage or a disadvantage for you folks going forward?

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Janney

Yes, I want to make sure you're referring to Dodd-Frank, is what you're referring to?

Thomas C. McCrohan - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Janney

Yes.

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Janney

Yes, yes. It's hard for me to speak for the banks, but I can speak for what we're doing at Western Union. And we're doing all the things that we need to be ready for that. The initial date was going to be early February, then the regulatory authorities have pushed that out. So probably at the earliest will be mid-summer right now, and the regulatory authorities are still working for that. But we've been working diligently on that and feel like when the time comes, we will be well prepared and our agents will be well prepared.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from Bryan Keane of Deutsche Bank.

Bryan Keane - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Just want to ask, it looks like the pricing actions have kind of gone to your expectations. And I know it's early, but as we go into '13, obviously you'll implement more. But I guess how confident are you that you return to revenue growth and profit growth in '14 and '15? And maybe you can just give us why you're confident on that.

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Yes. Bryan, I am pretty confident because we did many pricing actions. And every pricing action, every big investment, of course, in the beginning has a question. But based on my experience, based on the company experience, it takes about 12 to 18 months depending when you start with the pricing. And the pricings we start, I'm confident that in '14, you will see positive impact here on the revenue impact. And so we are targeting 25%. And, Bryan, as you remember, DMT pricing investment, which we did about 2 years ago, in the beginning it has a transaction growth, high-transaction growth. And after about 12 to 18 months, the revenue came also. And we were very pleased and turned around this business. So based on all the experiences, I believe it will be successful.

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

And, Bryan, the only thing I would add to what Hikmet said is pricing is one lever that we're looking at to grow the business in '14 and '15. But we're rapidly expanding westernunion.com. We're doing some really good things with account-based money transfer. We feel like we're on track to grow B2B faster in '13 than we did in '12. We expect some growth out of the C2B business. So I think all those things combined give us confidence that in '14 and '15, we can grow revenues and profits.

Bryan Keane - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

And then thinking about pricing as we look out, it sounds like we're likely to go back to the typical 1% to 3% decline cycle that we were in previously. I guess, what gives you confidence that there's nothing in the compliance or something that -- things here that you don't know about? Or I mean I guess one of the ways to think about it, I guess, is there's probably -- is there anything out there that could be as large as the situation that happened with Vigo and Orlandi Valuta that could have that kind of an impact on price?

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Well, from today's point of view, I really believe that we're going to come to 1% to 2% pricing environment. The regulatory environment is challenging. It's -- obviously, they are very [indiscernible]-regulated market. But all our investments, about $100 million a year that we invested to anti-money laundering compliance, are really putting us a industry standard. Being a market leader puts us in an industry standard, and we want to be a best-in-class and see that as a long-term competitive advantage. I think regulators are looking also on us, and we do have a duty to satisfy customer needs and we are working very hard on that.

Bryan Keane - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay. And then lastly for me, just 2 macro questions. I know pre the Great Recession, WU quoted that the construction vertical was about 20% to 25% of revenue. I'm just curious what that number is now in 2012, after this year. And then secondly, immigration reform, a lot of talk about that in DC. Can you give us some thoughts on if you think that would be a positive or a negative for Western Union?

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Yes, Bryan. This is Scott. On the construction, what I would tell you just broadly is that if you think around the globe, our customers come from -- working on 100 different areas. So whether it's in nursing, the service industry, retail, construction, so I would say we continue to be diversified around the globe. I don't have a specific number to give to you on construction. On immigration, in general, what we'd say is that we're not just pushing for one side or the other. But for immigration reform, we think it would be good just so that everybody understands what are the rules, what are the regulations. So overall, we support immigration reform...

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Yes, I think it's -- Bryan, I think it will have a positive impact. I think -- the support immigration reform, I think the people who are immigrated to the U.S. do have relatives, loved ones, and they would like to use a service like Western Union, I believe.

Operator

Operator

And the next question is from Jason Kupferberg of Jefferies. Jason Kupferberg - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: I just wanted to ask a little bit more about kind of post 2013. And I realized it's really too early to be precise in some answers there. But it feels to me like probably one of the biggest issues for investors is what is the post 2013 earnings power of the company? I mean do you think, is it realistic at some point in time beyond this year for EBIT margins to get back to the mid-20s in a decent macro environment, or are we kind of going to be stuck down more in the lower 20s just given what the pricing environment looks like?

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Jefferies

Scott, just jump in. But generally, what I would say that our business model is attractive too and is built to grow the top line. Every top line growth will help to increase our margins. And so we are -- we will set up in 2013 to bring higher growth, top line growth and profit growth. Scott, any...

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Jefferies

Yes, there's a couple of things I would add, Jason, to build on Hikmet's point. The most important thing for us for profitability is driving the top line revenue. That is really key. And if you think about our business model, 65% of our costs are variable, about 35% are fixed. And then [indiscernible] that the broadview I put this around is that we're not providing any specific outlook for '14 and '15. It's just too early. But if you think about our business, our C2C cross-border business, we're in a healthy industry where the industry is growing principal in the mid-single-digits. And our long-term goal is we want to not only grow that rate but gain more than our fair share of growth there as we move forward. Also, the B2B business, it's in a market that's growing probably mid to high-single-digits, depending upon the period you look at with what we trade. And then finally, as you think about margins, and this is my -- probably more particular to 2014, is that there is about $65 million of cost that we're going to incur in 2013 that we don't expect to occur -- reoccur in 2014. And specifically, Jason, that's $45 million for the cost-savings initiatives that we're taking on in '13 that we won't have that expense in '14. And then there's about $20 million of Travelex integration that we're incurring in '13 that we won't incur in '14. And then the last thing I would add to that is as we think about these cost-savings initiatives, we believe that will drive about $30 million of savings this year. That'll ramp up to be about $45 million in '14. So we can get a little bit better on the cost savings. But back to the headline or the punchline. What's most important for us for margins and profitability is we want to optimize revenue growth, optimize profit growth. But the goal for us is to really drive that top line, we should be helpful to profit [indiscernible]. Jason Kupferberg - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: Okay, yes, that's a good color. And just to ask a follow-up on the electronic channels. I guess, we would estimate that in 2012, electronic channels in total was maybe about $200 million in revenue. And I know you guys are standing by your target of $500 million in 2015. I guess I mean do you need to grow this base about 35% or so CAGR over the next 3 years to get there? Is that achievable organically without any acquisitions?

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Jefferies

Yes, we think it's achievable. And, Jason, let me just throw a little bit color on your numbers just to make sure we're clear. The westernunion.com business that we believe can be a $500 million business in 2015 has about $150 million business today. So the 35% math is probably closer on round numbers to about 50%. But the punchline is that we think that, that is very achievable. And some of the reasons I would give you is we're going to expand to additional countries. We also have opportunity to give our customers more choice and convenience as far as how do they pay for that money transfer, but also how do their loved one pick up their money transfer. And we think there's additional opportunities to leverage not only the best of our cash network of the 500,000 locations but be able to drop money in the bank accounts and other things. So you saw a 46% transaction growth in the fourth quarter, and we believe that, that business will grow faster than the 40% overall rate that we had in '12 and 2013.

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Jefferies

Yes, I mean, the short answer is yes. It is achievable. And our operating plan, incentives, everything is built on that. Jason Kupferberg - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: Okay. We just need to see, I guess, that gap narrow a bit obviously between the transaction growth and the revenue growth in that channel.

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Jefferies

Absolutely, yes.

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Jefferies

Absolutely.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from Ashwin Shirvaikar of Citi.

Philip Stiller - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst · Citi

It's actually Phil Stiller on for Ashwin. Scott, I was just wondering if you can help us with the timing of the $65 million of one-time expenses throughout 2013, and what segments those will be focused on?

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Citi

Yes. Phil, primarily they'll be in the first 3 quarters of the year. So primarily in the first 3 quarters of the year. Clearly, the $20 million will be all in the B2B segment for integration, then the remaining $45 million will probably fall a little heavier to the C2C business. So that's about 80% of our business, and then lesser extent, to the C2B segment and the other segments.

Philip Stiller - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst · Citi

Okay. And then just one other question on the C2B business. You talked about some investment that occurred in the fourth quarter that impacted the margins. I was just wondering if you can provide some more color around that and what the impact on 2013 will be.

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · Citi

Yes, absolutely. We think that we had an opportunity to renegotiate a sales and distribution agreement that cost us some money in the fourth quarter. But we believe that, that will have benefits in '13 and '14 for sure by saving some distribution costs that we will no longer have to incur. As we think about the C2B business, it has probably a business that will have to in front of the margin on a go-forward basis and then probably have some revenue growth on a go-forward basis, too.

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · Citi

Yes.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from John Williams of UBS.

John T. Williams - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS

Just had 2. I don't want to harp on the westernunion.com thing. But you did talk a little bit about the delta between transaction and revenue growth. I just wanted to get some help from you on the margin structure of those transactions. Seems like they should be meaningfully higher given the lack of a send-side commission. But it seems like you might also have pricing impacting that and making it less of a factor. Could you just give a little bit detail on that?

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · UBS

Yes, I think it's really a profitable model. But in the -- don't forget, as I mentioned before, the majority of the transactions are credit card transaction. It has the interchange cost fee, so it does impact. As we move more to ACH direct to bank and direct debit, the interchange fee should be more profitable. Long term, we believe that we have the savings on the send-side commissions. On the receive side, it depends on if you drop it to a bank account or if you pay it out in a retail money transfer as a cash, it differentiates from the commission side.

John T. Williams - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS

I know in the past when we've talked, you said that the margin profile is similar to the rest of the transactions that you typically see. Is that safe to say or are they somewhat higher still even after the interchange is taken into account?

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · UBS

John, let me put it in terms of this that today, the dot-com business, even though we don't have a send-side commission, we are heavier in the credit cards and we're transitioning that model. But on a long-term basis, we do see the margins being, I'll say, closer to the company average on a long-term basis. Today, because we're making some investments and we've got to do some things to scale a little bit there, the margins are somewhat lower than the company average. But we believe we can get to the company average as we get into 2015. It is a profitable business today.

John T. Williams - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS

Okay, so they're currently lower than your typical transactions is what you're saying?

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · UBS

Yes, because of the investments, because of the credit card fees, they are lower than current margins.

John T. Williams - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS

Okay. Just one other question, just in capital allocation. Obviously, the business has a pretty consistent cash flow profile. The one question we constantly get from investors is just what's keeping you from taking a bigger step here and taking advantage of the dislocation in the share price and maybe doing a bigger buyback or something that's going be more weighty than executing against the current authorization?

Scott T. Scheirman

Analyst · UBS

John, thanks for the question because we get that question at times, too. But we have been active in deploying the capital. Again, we -- to your point, we generated billion dollars of cash flow. It's very strong, it's very consistent. We did deploy $350 million just in the fourth quarter to buy back our stock. We plan to deploy about another $400 million in 2013 to buy back our stock. And then Hikmet and I continue to have discussions with our Board, with each other. We'll take into consideration our cash flows. We do want to maintain an investment grade credit rating, because that's important from a business standpoint. But we'll continue to have that dialogue with our Board and ourselves as move forward.

Hikmet Ersek

Analyst · UBS

Also just as a reminder, a big part of our cash is growth. So that has also impact on our cash flow. Before we close, I just want to thank you for attending this call. As I mentioned before and as Scott mentioned before, we expect that 2013 is really a transition year. We do reset the pricing actions in key corridors. We invest incrementally on the infrastructure to drive really the future growth. We believe that '13 is a transformation year, but we are confident that we have the plan, we have the strategic actions that 2014 and '15 will be future growth year. And I'm confident that we can execute against that. So thank you again attending this call, and we will talk to you soon.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.