Shashank Patel
Analyst · Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets
Thank you, Bob, and good morning, everyone. Please now turn to slide 6, which highlights our fourth quarter results. Sales of $502 million were up 6% on a reported basis and up 11% organically. Foreign exchange, primarily driven by a weaker euro reduced year-over-year sales by roughly $22 million or 5%. Sales were stronger than we had anticipated with double-digit growth in the Americas and APMEA and high single-digit growth in Europe. I will review the regional performance momentarily. Adjusted operating profit of $72 million, a 12% increase, translated into an adjusted operating margin of 14.3%, up 90 basis points versus last year. Benefits from price and productivity more than offset inflation and incremental investments of $8 million. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.60 increased 13% versus last year. Earnings per share growth was driven primarily by strong operational performance, up $0.25, which was partially offset by the net impact of interest expense, income tax expense and unfavorable foreign exchange movements. The adjusted effective tax rate in the quarter was 22.4%. The rate declined by 40 basis points compared to last year, primarily due to a more favorable state tax rate. For GAAP purposes, we took a $6.2 million charge for restructuring in the quarter, largely related to the continued rightsizing of our European cost structure, along with some smaller Americas cost actions. This charge was partially offset by the gain on the sale of our plant in Méry France after its closure. We also recorded a tax benefit of $18.2 million for GAAP purposes, primarily related to the modification of the structure of our Mexican supply chain operations. In summary, the better-than-expected global top line growth drove higher operating profit, margins and earnings per share compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Moving to the regional results, please turn to slide 7. The Americas had a solid fourth quarter with organic sales up approximately 11%. The growth was driven primarily by strong price realization. Unfavorable foreign exchange movements in the Canadian dollar reduced reported sales by 1% year-over-year. Adjusted operating profit increased by 27% and adjusted operating margins increased by 240 basis points. The margin expansion was driven by price and productivity, which more than offset inflation and incremental investments. Europe also had a solid quarter with organic sales growth of approximately 9%, mainly driven by price. Reported sales were negatively impacted by 13% from unfavorable foreign exchange movements. We had organic growth across all platforms with double-digit growth in Germany and Italy, driven by our HVAC OEM business, largely due to government energy incentives. France and Benelux also saw strong growth through the wholesale channel and electronics. As a reminder, we stopped our direct shipments to Russia in April 2022, and we estimate the impact of that to be approximately $3 million in the fourth quarter. Operating margins declined by 320 basis points as price and productivity were unable to fully offset rising inflation, energy cost increases, volume deleverage and investments. APMEA sales grew organically by 17%. Reported sales growth of 5% was negatively impacted by 12% from unfavorable foreign exchange movements. China's organic sales growth was in the double digits, primarily driven by the valve business sold into data centers. Organic sales outside China were also up double digits due to strong growth in Australia and the Middle East. Adjusted operating margin decreased 260 basis points as price and productivity were unable to offset a reduction in affiliate volume, inflation and investments. On slide 8, let me speak to the full year results. As Bob mentioned, we delivered record operating results for 2022. Reported sales were $1.98 billion, up 9%, driven by a 13% organic increase attributable to solid price realization and higher volume. Americas and APMEA were both up double digits and Europe was up high single digits for the year. Foreign exchange, primarily driven by a weaker euro reduced year-over-year sales by roughly $72 million or 4%. Acquisitions accounted for $6 million of incremental sales year-over-year. Adjusted operating margins increased 210 basis points to 16.4% in 2022. The margin expansion was driven by price, volume and productivity, which more than offset inflation and incremental investments. We also benefited from the onetime price cost benefit that we captured in 2022 of $13 million due to our proactive investment in inventory. Lastly, we funded approximately $23 million of incremental investments in new product development, smart and connected Solutions and our ESG efforts. Adjusted full year earnings per share of $7.13 increased by $1.61 or 29% versus the prior year. Operating results drove approximately $1.64 of the increase, while acquisitions, lower outstanding shares and a lower adjusted effective tax rate combined for an incremental $0.27. Unfavorable foreign currency translation and higher interest costs combined to decrease earnings per share by approximately $0.30 for the year. Free cash flow for the full year was $201 million, a 26% increase compared to last year, driven by higher net income and a lower investment in inventory. We generated record free cash flow in the fourth quarter to end the year with free cash flow conversion of 80%. As a reminder, we had incremental restructuring and incentive payments in 2022, which reduced our conversion percentage. We invested approximately $28 million in capital spending, including investments in new product development, capacity expansion and automation. This capital investment is partially offset by proceeds of approximately $5 million from the sale of 2 facilities. Our 2022 reinvestment ratio was 102%. We returned $109 million to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases in 2022 and increased our annual dividend return by 15%. Our net debt to capitalization ratio at year-end is -14.3% as compared to -9.3% in 2021. Our balance sheet continues to be in excellent shape and provides substantial flexibility to address our capital allocation priorities. So, despite significant inflationary pressures and continuing supply chain disruptions, we delivered record financial results in 2022. Our team did a great job proactively driving price, expanding margins and further strengthening our balance sheet. Now on slide 9, let's discuss the general framework we considered in preparing our 2023 outlook. First, let's look at the expected unfavorable conditions. As Bob mentioned, we do anticipate a tough comp in 2023 due to the strength of 2022 and the inflation-driven price realization. Higher interest rates are having an unfavorable impact on single-family new construction starts and could also impact multifamily and non-residential construction projects. Global GDP has slowed, but is currently expected to be positive in the U.S. and Europe. GDP acts as a proxy for our repair and replacement business. The European economy continues to slow as the war in Ukraine continues to put stress on the region. Higher inflation and general uncertainty may negatively impact purchasing decisions, especially in new construction. We expect incremental investments and inflation to be a headwind in 2023. Labor shortages will continue to be a challenge and could hinder our ability to manufacture and distribute product efficiently as well as impact our customers' ability to timely complete projects. In the middle column are themes that we'll continue to monitor. We have been able to maintain a positive price cost dynamic through 2022. However, inflationary pressures in labor markets continue to persist and impact overall customer project costs. Although supply chain disruptions are beginning to subside, we are still seeing pockets of challenges, particularly in electronic components. We have begun reducing our inventory levels to reflect the shorter lead times, but we'll continue to monitor and adjust as needed. As Bob discussed, the non-residential new construction indicators are mixed, but this is expected to be supportive in at least the first half of 2023. Some verticals will be more challenged, including office and retail. Some leading indicators, including the ABI Index, have dipped in recent months portending a potential slowdown in the second half of 2023. Now, looking at potential favorable conditions. Institutional and industrial new construction are expected to be a tailwind. Health care, education, data centers and food and beverage should maintain solid growth. We should have a positive carryover effect of last year's price increases into 2023. In addition, we plan to implement price increases during 2023 to keep up with continuing but moderating cost inflation. We expect to continue to expand revenue through our smart and connected product offering and other new product introductions. Productivity and automation investments are expected to provide cost savings in 2023. In addition, our Europe and Americas segments are expected to have incremental cost savings from the restructuring activities commenced in late 2022. As discussed, our balance sheet is exceptionally strong coming into 2023. We have the flexibility to pursue inorganic growth opportunities to augment the business, assuming a transaction meets our strategic and financial criteria. With that as background, let's review our outlook for the full year 2023 and our expectations for the first quarter of 2023. On slide 10, we have provided our major assumptions. Starting with the full year assumption, consolidated organic revenue is estimated to range from -5% to +2%, with regional expectations as follows: Americas from -4% to +2%, Europe from -7% to -1% and APMEA from -1% to plus 6%. As Bob mentioned, we have signed an agreement to purchase the assets of Enware Australia. This outlook does not include the Enware acquisition as the transaction is not expected to close until later in Q1. We will provide additional information on financial expectations after the transaction closes. We expect consolidated adjusted operating margin for the full year to range from between 15.4% to 16.0%, with both the Americas and APMEA down 60 basis points to flat compared to 2022 as price and productivity do not fully offset inflation, incremental investments and the onetime price cost benefit of $13 million we captured in 2022. We anticipate Europe's adjusted operating margin will decrease 120 basis points to 170 basis points due to the impact from inflation and volume deleverage. Consolidated margin declines may range from 100 basis points to 40 basis points. It is important to note that the range includes approximately $20 million in incremental investments. As for the other 2023 key inputs, we expect corporate costs to be about $49 million for the year. Interest expense should approximate $8 million. Our estimated adjusted effective tax rate for 2023 should be approximately 25%. Capital spending is expected to be approximately $42 million. Depreciation and amortization should be approximately $42 million for the year. We expect to deliver free cash flow conversion of greater than or equal to 100% of net income in 2023. For the full year, we are assuming a 1.08 average euro-U.S. dollar FX rate versus the average rate of 1.06 in 2022. This would imply an increase of 2% year-over-year and would equate to an increase of $8 million in sales and $0.03 a share in EPS for the full year versus prior year. We expect our share count to be approximately $33.5 million for the year. Finally, a few items to consider for the first quarter. Organically, we see sales flat to up 4% with low single-digit growth in the Americas and APMEA, offset partially by a low single-digit decline in Europe. We expect first quarter operating margin to be in the range of 15.7% to 16.2% or flat to up 50 basis points versus the first quarter of 2022. This is due to the impact of a tougher compare as well as higher investments and continued inflation. We expect incremental investments of approximately $4 million in the first quarter. Incremental restructuring savings of $1 million should be realized in Europe and $0.4 million in the Americas. Corporate costs should be approximately $11 million. Interest expense should be approximately $2 million. The adjusted effective tax rate should be between 23% and 24%. We anticipate foreign exchange to be a headwind in the first quarter. We are estimating a 1.08 euro-dollar exchange rate, which would be a 4% reduction versus the average rate of 1.12 in the first quarter of 2022. This equates to an impact of $5 million in sales and $0.02 a share in EPS. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Bob to summarize our discussion before moving to Q&A.