Todd Trapp
Analyst · Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open
Thank you Bob, and good morning everyone. I am on Slide 4, which highlight the fourth quarter results. Sales of $366 million were up 7% on a reported basis and up 3% organically. Excluding the impact from expected product rationalization, organic sales increased 4% with growth in all regions. I’ll provide more color on the regional results in a few minutes. Foreign exchange, mainly the euro, positively impacted sales by 3%. Adjusted operating profit of $42 million increased 12%. This translated into an adjusted operating margin of 11.4%, up 50 basis points versus last year and a Q4 record for Watts. Benefits from volume, transformation savings and productivity more than offset higher material costs and incremental growth investments. Adjusted EPS of $0.74 increased 16% versus last year driven by strong operations. The $0.74 represents another Q4 record for the company. The effective tax rate in the quarter was 31.7%, slightly lower than last year due to the mix of worldwide earnings. Free cash flow for the full year was $127 million, an increase of 24% over 2016. Excluding the impact of the tax reform charge, free cash flow conversion was 129%. Over the course of the year, we paid down net debt of over $150 million. We also invested $29 million in CapEx, which equates to 100% reinvestment ratio. The majority of our capital investments are high ROI projects, which will help drive growth and productivity over the next several years. During 2017, we also returned $44 million to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases, a continuation of our balanced capital allocation approach. So in summary, Q4 played out as we thought. The sales momentum we anticipated for the second half of 2017 was realized and we delivered record adjusted operating margin and EPS, while still investing for the future. Moving to the regions, let’s turn to Slide 5 and discuss the Americas results. Reported sales increased 5% to $234 million. Organically, sales were up 3% with solid growth in plumbing, drains and water quality, which more than offset slightly lower volume in boilers. Americas adjusted operating profit for the quarter increased 11% to $37.8 million. Operating margin expanded 90 basis points to 16.2%. The margin increase was driven by volume and continued strong productivity, including restructuring savings, which more than offset growth investments and higher material costs. So another quarter of solid sales growth and strong operating profit performance for the Americas. Turning to Slide 6. Let’s review Europe’s results. Sales were $116 million, up 14% on a reported basis. Foreign exchange was a tailwind of about nine points in the quarter. Organically, sales were up a strong 5%. From a platform perspective, drains was up double digits, due to strength in both land and marine-based applications. Fluid solution sales, which include HVAC, plumbing and electronics grew organically low single digits, due to some recovery in our larger end markets; early benefits from our cross-selling initiatives and some favorable comps. By geography, we saw a solid growth in France, Germany and the Nordics. In France, growth was driven by a stronger demand for our valves and plumbing products. Nordics saw strength in commercial drains, while Germany expands higher OEM sales, partially due to new product introductions. As expected, Italy was negatively impacted from a continued slowdown in the market for energy-efficient products, similar to what we saw in Q3. Adjusted operating profit in Europe was $11.8 million, a 33% increase over last year. Operating margin of 10.2% increased 140 basis points, primarily due to higher volume and productivity including restructuring savings. So as expected, Europe saw some recovery on the top line and delivered a solid operating performance in the quarter. Now moving to Slide 7, let’s take a look at Asia Pacific’s results for the fourth quarter. Asia Pacific sales were $17 million, flat on a reported basis and down 1% organically. Excluding product rationalization, organic sales increased by 9% in the quarter. Sales within China grew 22% with strong growth in commercial valves, which was sold at the data centers and semiconductor plants, being partially offset by lower demand for our residential heating products. As discussed last quarter, we continued to see softness in our heating products due to some government restrictions on loans for residential investments. Sales outside China increased 1% due to higher plumbing and valve sales in New Zealand and Australia, being offset by project timing in Korea and the Middle East. Adjusted operating profit of $1.4 million was down versus last year driven by lower intercompany volume and growth investments. I am now on Slide 8. Let me speak about the full year results. For 2017, reported sales were $1.46 billion, up $58 million or 4%. The increase was primarily driven by acquired sales of 3%. Excluding product rationalization, consolidated organic sales were up 2% with growth in all regions. Adjusted operating margin was 11.9%, up 50 basis points and a new record for Watts. Sales mix, transformation and restructuring benefits and continued productivity were the driving factors of the record margin. Also important to note, the margin expansion included incremental investments of roughly $8 million. Adjusted EPS of $3.02 was up $0.35 or 13% versus prior year. The increase was driven by improved operating performance and a reduction in our effective tax rate. EPS of $3.02 was also a record for Watts. Please turn to Slide 9 and I’ll provide some details on the U.S. tax reform and its impact on Watts. In the fourth quarter, we recorded a net charge of $25 million as a result of the U.S. tax reform. Included in the net charge is a one-time mandatory repatriation tax for cumulative undistributed foreign earnings. Partially offsetting this was a credit to remeasure our deferred tax liabilities at a lower tax rate as of December 31. We expect to pay the one-time deemed repatriation tax over the next eight years in line with the new law, with about $4 million in payments due this year. We estimate our effective tax rate will approximate 28% in 2018, about five percentage points lower than 2017. The 2018 effective tax rate includes a reduction in the statutory rate, but also adds back certain previously allowed reductions, that under the new law are no longer available to us. We currently anticipate repatriating approximately $125 million in 2018. We’ve made this estimate after considering regional working capital needs, withholding tax considerations and individual country limitations on cash movements. We will evaluate future repatriations beyond 2018, in line with our expected worldwide capital requirements. I would like to emphasize that the information provided is based on our current interpretations of the Tax Reform legislation, which are subject to refinement and change, as further guidance is provided by the U.S. tax authorities. Now turning to Slide 10, let’s discuss the general framework we considered in preparing our 2018 outlook. First, let’s look at the expected headwinds. Commodity costs, mainly copper, increased dramatically during 2017 and the current forecast from IHS is that it will remain at elevated levels in 2018. Consistent with our ongoing strategy, we are going to reinvest in the business, especially in initiatives that are commercially focused. Product rationalization will be a headwind again in Europe and Asia Pacific, but overall at a reduced level. The amount is approximately $9 million and it has been included in our estimated organic growth rates for the 2018 outlook. In the middle column, you can see some of the items that we’ll continue to monitor. U.S. fiscal policies could impact the business in 2018. At this point, we do not know how our customers will reinvest their expected cash benefits from the tax reform. And infrastructure legislation is too early in the process with few details and timing yet to be determined. There have been some concerns in China around the high debt levels and a hyperactive real estate market. As mentioned, the government is taking steps to temper the residential markets, but how successful that effort will be, and the knock-on effects on commercial markets in the overall Chinese economy is yet to be determined. And as Bob mentioned, there are a number of geopolitical concerns that could impact Asia Pacific and the Middle East, something we’ll continue to monitor. Finally, looking at the anticipated tailwinds. We are hopeful that the early actions we undertook with pricing in the fourth quarter of 2017 should help mitigate some of the commodity inflation. We’ll be watching the commodity markets to determine if further pricing actions are necessary. Restructuring benefits should provide margin tailwind again this year. And as I just discussed, the effects of tax reform should be beneficial to Watts in 2018. Lastly, the euro is currently strengthening against the U.S. dollar, which is positive for our year-over-year reported results. Finally, let’s review our outlook for 2018. On Slide 11, we have provided our major assumptions. Starting with sales, we estimate that Americas should grow organically 3% to 5% with solid growth across most of our product lines. We expect operating margin in the Americas to expand as well, from volume leverage and productivity initiatives. For Europe, we are forecasting organic sales growth of 1% to 3%. We expect to see improved performance in both fluid solutions and drains based on 2017 second half results and continued positive end markets. We expect another year of operating margin expansion due to higher volume and continued productivity, including restructuring savings. And in Asia Pacific, we expect organic sales growth to increase between 7% and 10% for the year, with strong growth both inside and outside of China. Asia Pacific will deliver solid margin expansion as well, primarily due to higher volume. Overall, on a consolidated level, Watts’ organic sales are estimated to increase approximately 3% in 2018. We estimate our consolidated operating margin should expand between 50 and 70 basis points, which includes approximately $10 million of incremental investments. Now a few other key inputs to consider for 2018. We expect corporate cost to be fairly flat for 2017, about $37 million for the year. Interest expense should be roughly $17 million, and as I mentioned, our estimated effective tax rate for 2018 is 28%. Capital spending is expected to be in the $38 million range, as we continue to reinvest in our manufacturing facilities and systems, which will support future growth and productivity. Depreciation and amortization should be approximately $50 million for the year. We expect to continue to drive free cash flow conversion equal to, or greater than, 100% of net income. And finally, we expect our share count should remain flat at a minimum with the buyback program offsetting creep. Before I turn the call back over to Bob, a few housekeeping items on Q1. We are expecting consolidated organic growth in the first quarter to be slightly below our full year expectations. Europe will be negatively impacted by a couple of shipping days, due to the Easter holiday at the end of March. And we expect some of the product timing in the Middle East and Korea that we saw in Q4, will continue into Q1 and lower Asia Pacific’s growth rate. Both situations, we consider timing issues that will correct themselves during the remainder of 2018. We expect incremental investments of about $2.5 million in the quarter, $1.5 million in the Americas and $1 million in Europe. These investments will be partially offset by about $1 million in incremental restructuring savings, about $500,000 each in the Americas and Europe. With that, I’ll turn it over to Bob before moving to Q&A. Bob?