Nicholas DeBenedictis
Chairman
Yeah, I think with this new administration, it may occur even before that if Congress gets involved. I think there's going to be some squeeze on the banks to hop the foreclosures. And when that occurs, we'll all pay for it, let's not kid ourselves. It will be principle reductions and don't pay interest for a couple of months. This is me speaking. I'm not obviously in anybody's administration. But I think once the prices stop dropping, you're going to see people who have waited in their apartment for a little longer than they would have normally because they want to make sure they hit the ultimate bottom of the market, and at that point, I think you'll see the returns to the normalized. Right now, I think our housing starts at 700,000, something like that, even less that. And I've talked to some of the bigger builders, and they said, the money is out there, that means we're still plucking 6.5% mortgage. My first mortgage was 14%. Young kids can afford 6.5%, young families. I think nobody wants to buy a house once they think they're getting the absolutely lowest price. There might be another 5% in the market, in certain areas where there wasn't rapid speculation. I'm not talking about Nevada, Las Vegas, and Southern California or Southern Florida. But North Carolina would be a good example, slowed down drastically. We were almost 3.5%, 4% growth just a year ago, it slowed down to less than 1%. The builders are telling me once people think that the housing price is at the bottom, they are expecting an upturn, because the financing is there. That's more affordable obviously than what they were getting before. They won't have this idea where they put a house up for sale and four bidders come in outbid each other, asking price which was occurring in the summer of the '05. It will be more normalized than it was 10 years ago. You have a house on the market for a month or two, and you have to bargain a little bit, and you ask 5% more than you think you're going to get, and you actually put some money down on the house, all those kind of things. So I think you're looking at another quarter or two of stale sales. You’ve get the winter coming up in most of the Northern States anyhow. Nobody buys a house around Christmas. But I think probably by second quarter of next year you can start seeing the housing bottom. And I think you have to or you're going to have to stabilize the banking accounting. That's me speaking. So that's what we're projecting here at this time.