Dominic Paul
Analyst · Citi
Thanks, Leo. Two really good questions. So let me talk a little bit about the capital allocation plan that we've got and why we're so confident in it. So if you look at the capital that we are going to spend within the 5-year plan, it's actually focused on 3 key areas, the growth capital. So the significant area is accelerating growth plan. And that is truly transformative for our business, removing the drag of unprofitable or less profitable restaurants, replacing them with high-returning extension rooms. It's really accretive for our business, and it simplifies our business. So back to Jamie's question earlier about efficiencies, having a focused hotel group that is simpler and higher returning becomes a much more efficient and profitable business is one of the pillars of the 5-year plan we've got. The next area is U.K. new room growth. Now we've already taken a number of sites out of the U.K. pipeline. We took GBP 500 million worth of growth CapEx out of the U.K. And remember, we'd also slimmed the pipeline down during COVID. That gives us high confidence that the sites that we're investing moving forward in this 5-year plan will be north of 15% returns. And we've got data to support that. The hotels that we've opened over the past few years are already generating circa 13.5% return. They're not fully mature yet. So we have high confidence that those sites, the sites we are investing in and opening in exclusive catchment areas where there isn't cannibalization and are overall very accretive to both our returns and profitability. The third area then for the growth capital is Germany. And actually, if you look at Germany, we've taken GBP 500 million out of growth capital for Germany during the 5 years, which leaves GBP 200 million, GBP 100 million of which will be spent this year. So over the remaining 4 years, we're effectively only spending GBP 100 million worth of growth capital in Germany. The good news is that capital is really focused on the high-returning areas from all of the lessons that we've learned in being in Germany for the last 10 years and specifically over the past few years. So then where we end up with Germany actually is a business of scale. So as of today, we're having this call, we've got 75 hotels open in Germany. So we are creating -- we've already created a business of scale. That means we're getting efficiencies. Moving forward, investing in sites where we have high confidence will generate accretive returns moving to a tenant or leasehold model. You put all of that together, investing in sites where we get north of 15%, recycling capital at a significantly lower rate than that. That's one of the drivers for the significant cash flow creation, shareholder returns creation and an increase in margins and returns. So you're right, the Germany pipeline has come down somewhat. We've guided to 18,000 rooms by the end of full year '31, but it's a higher returning, more profitable business. And the data points to support the delivery of that are clear to see in the results today, see the momentum from both the sales point of view, but actually results point of view in Germany supports that. So that's kind of your first question. And the second question was activist and Corvex. So really interesting, isn't it? I mean we got hammered in the U.K. budget last year on the back of being hammered on the budget before, so the year before. So we had a GBP 60-odd million increase in employment costs, primarily driven by national insurance. And then the budget last year, frankly, the government appeared to have made a mistake and hit the hotel business rates particularly hard. So that's GBP 160 million worth of extra costs that came through in that budget over what now is the next 2 years. And we have 2 ways of reacting to that. You kind of continue with the plan we had, and we adjust our plan quite dramatically in order to actually more than offset those increased costs and deliver materially higher margins returns over the next 5 years. And obviously, that's exactly what we did. And we spent multiple months doing a very detailed piece of work literally straight after the budget last year, supported and guided by a world-class Board and 3 global investment banks. And we came up with what we believe is a very strong plan, which we outlined in April, which will not only more than offset the increase in these costs, it will strengthen our position in both the U.K. and Germany to drive material increases in margins and returns. So we've got a very strong plan. The announcement today, you can see we've got real momentum building in the delivery of that plan. We are literally kicking off every single area of the 5-year plan in terms of delivery. And we have a world-class Board, and we have further strengthened our Board over the last 12 months with a number of really positive additions to our Board. In parallel to that, we have had noise from Corvex. So earlier in the year, they announced that we should do a strategic review. But we already said we would do a strategic review, which we outlined in April. At a similar time, they said that we should put the company up for sale, which is a bit ironic. We're a public company. Obviously, a public company always has to be open for a sale. And then more recently, Corvex has come out and said actually, they don't think we should put the company up for sell, but we should do a strategic review and that we should give them a Board seat. And when we step back and we look at the plan that we've got, which is going to deliver material increase in returns for shareholders, the momentum we've got and the fact that we have a world-class Board, we cannot see that giving a Board seat to an activist investor that appears to be changing their mind and that the Board nominee doesn't appear to offer any material accretive skill set to our Board can be the right thing to do. So our message today is unanimous from the Board, which is we've got the right plan. We've got momentum in delivering the plan. We've got a world-class Board. In terms of distraction, yes, going back over a business review, which we've already done in enormous detail, following the agenda for one shareholder, not all shareholders, yes, that would be distracting. And that risks the delivery of the plan. And let's be completely clear, we're here to deliver the plan, and we're here to deliver significant increases in returns for our shareholders. We're confident of being able to do that, and we don't need distraction.