Earnings Labs

WisdomTree, Inc. (WT)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 5, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the WisdomTree Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference may be recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to our host for today's call, Mr. Stuart Bell at WisdomTree Investor Relations. You may begin.

Stuart Bell

Analyst

Thank you and good morning. Before we begin, I would like to reference our legal disclaimer available in today’s presentation. This presentation may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which are generally identified by terms such as believe, expect, anticipate, and similar expressions suggesting future outcomes or events. Forward-looking statements reflect our current expectations regarding future events and operating performance and they speak only as of the date when made. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties, which may prove to be incorrect. Such statements should not be read as guarantees of future results and will not necessarily be accurate indications of whether or not, or the times at or by which, these results will be achieved. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in forward-looking statements, including but not limited to, the risks set forth in this presentation and in the Risk Factors section of the company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014. Now it is my pleasure to turn the call over to WisdomTree’s CFO, Amit Muni.

Amit Muni

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open Craig

Thank you, Stuart, and good morning, everyone. Despite the recent volatility, 2015 was a record breaking quarter year for WisdomTree. Our innovation led to the creation of a currency hedge category and ETFs, and our two leading products drove us to achieve record inflows in AUM. The operating efficiency of our business model translated into our strong performance into record financial results with operating margins that rival the largest players in asset management. And with these strong cash flows we've returned over $100 million back to our shareholders through dividends and buybacks. We took steps to make strategic investments as part of our long-term growth plans. We focused on expanding our sales efforts and hired 17 new salespeople including a new role overseeing global distribution. We continue to focus on innovative and differentiated products with the launch of 17 new ETFs. We expanded our distribution relationships both in the U.S. and abroad and with the strength of U.S. accomplishments we made our first steps into Asia opening an office in Japan as well as continuing to grow our European business. We are setting up the foundation for us to take part in the worldwide growth of the ETF industry. Now let's get into the results for the quarter beginning by first reviewing the U.S. ETF industry statistics. Turning to slide three, U.S. ETF industry flows increased significantly to $91 billion in the fourth quarter and the industry reached $232 billion inflows for the year. U.S. and unhedged international equities were the flow leaders this quarter followed by U.S. fixed income ETFs. Turning to the next slide, our AUM increased 31% for the year to $51.6 billion due to the record inflows we took in during the year. AUM was down 3% sequentially due to outflows in the fourth quarter. Our…

Jonathan Steinberg

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open Craig

Thank you, Amit. Good morning everybody. This was a weak quarter but a very strong year. As such, our strategy remains the same. Our discipline also remains the same. We are comfortably and carefully managing our business with an eye towards long-term growth. We are mindful of the volatility in the markets in the second half of 2015 which have carried through year-to-date. We will manage our expenses appropriately just as we have done in years past should these conditions persist. But make no mistake; the environment for an ETF focused asset manager is only gaining momentum. WisdomTree is uniquely positioned amongst the public asset managers to capitalize on these trends. As you can see on this slide from 2006 through 2011 the ETF industry averaged $126 billion of inflows and WisdomTree's market share on average was 2%. From 2012 to 2015, the industry saw a significant step-up in inflows averaging $210 billion-a-year and WisdomTree also saw a significant step-up in market share averaging 5% a year. I think the ETF industry is poised for another step up in growth. Just consider what happened this year. In 2015 ETFs took in $232 billion while mutual funds bled $125 billion. In fact this was the largest year of active mutual fund outflows on record according to Morningstar. In many ways it is a zero-sum game. The growth of the ETF industry comes primarily at the expense of the traditional mutual fund. Why am I so confident in this dynamic? Largely it is common sense. The ETF is the better structure. Transparency liquidity and tax efficiency and the continued growing awareness of these benefits are driving market share gains, but the deal well is proposed Fiduciary rule if enacted will further accelerate the trends. Morningstar estimated more than 1 trillion of assets…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Craig Siegenthaler of Credit Suisse. Your line is now open Craig.

Craig Siegenthaler

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open Craig

Thanks, good morning.

Jonathan Steinberg

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open Craig

Good morning Craig.

Craig Siegenthaler

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open Craig

So in the fourth quarter the two larger HEDJ products DXJ and HEDJ gave up some ground to the newer products at iShares and the X-Trackers. I’m just wondering, we know cap gain is partially behind us, but can you provide your updated thoughts on the short term trend and may be how your products are stacking up competitively versus iShares and X-Trackers?

Luciano Siracusano

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open Craig

Sure, Craig this is Luciano. HEDJ is by far the dominant vehicle for European HEDJ equities and DXJ is dominant in Japanese HEDJ equities. So as you've seen in other categories, typically the biggest ETF often takes in the lion's share of flows when the market is in favor and it typically seizes the greatest outflows when sentiment reverses. So, to put into context, I mean HEDJ took in $16 million since September of 2014. That was a period when European starts were in favor if you hedged out the Euro. Now most recently European equity markets have sold off 10% to 15% since November. So it is not unusual to see HEDJ experiencing outflows. But I’m glad you asked the question because there has been some misinformation out there. So let me set the record straight with respect to three important points, taxes, trading and performance. First on taxes, so due to the timing of HEDJ substantial inflows which occurred during the period when the Euro was losing value relative to the dollar, as well as the timing of HEDJ’s fiscal year WisdomTree ended up distributing larger capital gains than competing for funds from either iShares at Deutsche Bank. So, in the past few months we know there was some repositioning to avoid capital gains, but we believe this was a function of timing and not methodology. So, for example, I mean WisdomTree didn’t pay any capital gains on the equity portion of HEDJ’s portfolios. We had larger capital gains to distribute because we had larger gains on the current see forwards. In other words the fund worked exactly as it was designed to. In any given year the size of those capital gain distributions can vary and next year could easily reverse itself. With respect to trading, we…

Amit Muni

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open Craig

And Craig let me add just one final point to what Luciano just said. So one of the real structural advantages of the approach that WisdomTree has taken is really business model related and which is really a forever advantage. Self indexing, always being differentiated is really just the better long-term business model and that should carry through for years to come. We wouldn’t change the structure of our business versus any of the other ETF sponsors.

Craig Siegenthaler

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open Craig

Got it, and just as my followup one of your HEDJ competitors uses a fund to fund structure in order to tap the liquidity be larger un-hedged base, why is this not a competitive advantage for this product versus your products?

Luciano Siracusano

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open Craig

Well we trade more than they do, we have higher volumes, we have higher dollar volumes and our bid asset spread as a percentage of the ETFs is actually cheaper, so I don’t know you explain to me why you think it’s an advantage.

Amit Muni

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open Craig

So Craig it’s not necessarily the advantage of a disadvantage, but in this competitive situation where we have the largest funds in the category, it’s not an advantage.

Craig Siegenthaler

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open Craig

Got it, thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Jason Weyeneth of Piper Jaffray. Your line is open.

Jason Weyeneth

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Your line is open

Thanks. Can you guys talk a little bit about capital management and sort of the decision not to be more aggressive with buybacks particularly December? And then just sort of looking forward how you think about sort of buyback appetite as you take that into conjunction with the growth spending plans?

Amit Muni

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Your line is open

Sure, hey Jason, it’s Amit. There are several factors that we look at when we’re thinking about buyback, but obviously for competitive reasons, we’re not going to disclose what they all are, but you can imagine like in the recent periods we were approaching a blackout period. We were in the middle of an M&A transaction to acquire GreenHaven. So because of all of that we didn’t execute any buybacks during that period. But when we think about capital management, remember we’re trying – we’re a growth company and we’re balancing the needs to make it the right investments in the business first, return excess cash back to our shareholders and add dry powder in case you know there maybe some other opportunities for us out there. We’ve returned capital in the past and what we said in our last call is just because of what we did in the past don’t think that is the way it’s going to go in the future. We may change the way of the mix of our capital of how we distribute capital back to our shareholders based upon the time. We have $75 million left in our share buyback program and our goal is to have a very efficient capital management program and so that’s how we are continuing to think about it going forward.

Jason Weyeneth

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Your line is open

Thanks. And on the gross margin guidance, I know we sort of think about how much of the lower guidance is driven by the recent pressure on assets versus the growth plans and the new product rollout?

Amit Muni

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Your line is open

Sure. So the bulk of it is the result of the current AUM. We are at $47 billion to date and that's what's driving the gross margins down. If you go back historically and look when we were averaging about this level of assets, you will see the gross margin was close to this or probably the guidance that we’re giving is probably up 1 to 1.5 points lower than that because of the additional funds that we've launched in 2015 and what we plan to do in 2016.

Jason Weyeneth

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Your line is open

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Surinder Thind of Jefferies. Your line is open.

Surinder Thind

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

Hi good morning. I'd just like to touch base on the regulatory landscape here. So how important is kind of the, I mean assume that the deal proposal will be highly favorable and how important is that the kind of pulling forward demand or opening up some of these channels at this point versus if that rule was not going to be in place, is it a couple of years or?

Amit Muni

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

I’m sorry, finished your question Surinder?

Surinder Thind

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

Are we looking at just a couple of years of pull forward demand or how should we think about that dynamic at this point?

Amit Muni

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

So first regulation is a global phenomenon, so obviously we've had all ER [ph] in Europe and throughout other regions in Europe, there are other similar initiatives underway. Canada has an initiative underway right now. Now, you have the DOL rule which is expected to go into effect before the end of this year and if that happens if probably and FTC rule that would follow and would cover a much broader swath of the advisor market. I think that these trends are inevitably going to accelerate the growth of the ETF industry, push more channels, make advisors move their allocation faster than they might have done on their own, though you can tell from historical flows advisors have been very strongly moving into the ETF industry in general. So it really just feels like this is the icing on the cake that we really love a government regulation and there are a lot of government regulation. It is not just the DOL rule, but you also have things like the liquidity rule which they’re also challenging to asset managers is still very favorable to the ETF market because the things that they are focusing on liquidity and transparency again very favorable to the ETF structure. So I think that this is really a particularly U.S. market led DOL rule is a new phenomenon, this is really an accelerator to what has been taking place historically.

Surinder Thind

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

That’s helpful and then can you also touch base on just part of your new initiative spend which is your product launches at $2 million to $3 million. Is it fair to assume that that is roughly about 10 to 15 new products at this point?

Amit Muni

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

Yes said it is about 10 to 15 new ETFs as per plan during the year and remember the cost for an ETF is roughly about $175,000 and so it is phased in throughout the year.

Luciano Siracusano

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

Let me just add product development as Amit said in his remarks it has obviously been historically important to WisdomTree, we have been very good at this. At the end of last year, we launched two liquid offs DYB which is a bearish fund and a long short fund and as you might know we filed for an S&P 500 PutWrite fund. So in the relatively near future you are going to see a really robust liquid all [ph] suite from WisdomTree and for investors to get more information on this you should go to wisdomtree.com. We are also seeing some strength in domestic fixed income. We launched not too long ago and a yield enhanced Ag which has recently found its footing and seen significant growth. And we just file for so it's public, fixed income smart data. So, by the end of this year you will see a much stronger domestic fixed income in liquid all suite that will be a part of, our global equity suite which is both hedged and un-hedged and obviously we’ve made an acquisition in commodities and so, from a diversification standpoint these are very important initiates.

Surinder Thind

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

Thanks and then may be one quick question, any additional color on the Japan strategy at this point with the opening up of a new office in terms of just kind of because there is outlook there how you are thinking about that, the timing of things?

Amit Muni

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

Yes, yes Surinder, so we’re still in the final legs of getting our license hopefully within the coming weeks and as soon as we get that we'll be in a better position to talk to more about the, the Japan’s strategy.

Luciano Siracusano

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

You know, working on regulation I would not be surprised from my trips to Japan, and this is just my speculation, that a version of the fiduciary will make it to Japan as well.

Surinder Thind

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

Okay, thank you guys, that's it from me.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Adam Beatty. Your line is open.

Adam Beatty

Analyst

Thank you and good morning. I wanted to come at the DOL fiduciary rule from kind of a different aspect. As I read the proposed rule, one of the aspects of it seems to be the idea that lower fees per se are a benefit to investors and given that WisdomTree has, one of the good things about WisdomTree is that you maintain fairly high fee rates north of 50 basis points. So to ex that aspect of the Fiduciary rule or there other parts of the rule that are favorable to ETFs and WisdomTree in particular? Thank you.

Jonathan Steinberg

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open Craig

So, Adam, this is Jon. So the 50 basis points is just because of the mix of where the assets have come. So we really are a low fee firm. DXJs priced absolutely in line I mean exactly in line with EWJ the, so we were really not a high fee firm. What’s most important in DOL rule I think is if you are on a non-exclusive index, it really does not bode well to be the higher fee alternative. So again, I believe this rule means self indexing and an ETF focus is really the only viable long term business model in asset management.

Adam Beatty

Analyst

Got it. Thank you and then turning to kind of the overseas market more generally, you’ve hired a Head of Global distribution. Could you give us a sense, I know AUM inflows can be volatile, can you give us a sense of maybe, a two to three-year outlook of how much growth you would expect? I mean U.S. asset managers have had some excess both active and passive in taking some share in Europe. How much of a WisdomTree could be overseas domicile within a couple of years, what are your thoughts on that? Thank you.

Amit Muni

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open Craig

It's really that’s a hard projection to make and what we've tried to do is manage the Street's expectations on the build out of these real true start up investments that we have been making. But as you saw in the U.S. there is a turning point where it really starts to accelerate, now one this is also a diversification effort for WisdomTree and so you are seeing flows in Europe even though we have actually had outflows in the U.S. And we're also seeing foreign buyers of the U.S. funds are coming out of Europe. So we are really starting to see the synergies, but we're going to have to give you greater guidance over time, but again the growth should accelerate in these markets as their markets mature and as their advisor community gets educated and as their new regulatory pushes also accelerates those transitions. So we’ll update you on what it could be, but what you should know is, we know we have the resources, we know it is a global phenomenon and we’re making the investments to be a global ETF sponsor.

Adam Beatty

Analyst

Okay, I appreciate the color. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Bill Katz of Citi. Your line is open Bill.

William Katz

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open Bill

Okay, good morning everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. So, on the expense guidance, thanks for framing out that way,, how much flexibility is there on the investment spend part of the business on the left hand side of the chart, if the markets and flows remain somewhat flat or choppy for the rest of the year?

Amit Muni

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open Bill

Hi, Bill its Amit. So yes, there I mean we do have flexibility on our strategic spend. As we have in the past we can’t ramped up or ramped down if we see market conditions changing. We have discretionary items and such as headcount can be and slow down and the level of marketing spend that we wanted to kind of slow down. So yeah, there is flexibility there if we need to but I would say as we've demonstrated in the past we have stream out of expense this when we need to be so, balancing that these are important investments that we need to make we think for the long run to help continued to accelerate our growth and importantly helps stabilizing and diversify our asset base.

Jonathan Steinberg

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open Bill

Hey, Bill its john, and so let me also add, I mean Amit being a little bit humble, we’re going into this moment with really maybe 2015 you will know better than I did we have highest operating margins in the industry this year I think we might have. And I think one of the things that confuse many of the analysts is their coverage universe or public asset managers have historically for years have had no organic growth. So that's the only element they have in a negative market move environment is cost cutting. We have a very, very different dynamic and we’re the only pureplay public ETF sponsor and so I know it confuses a lot of the analyst, but our growth outlook is just dramatically different than the other publically traded asset managers.

William Katz

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open Bill

Yes, thanks. My final question against that is, as you look at the counter balance between the spend, which I think if my math is right it's going to put you 16 margin pretty much on top of the rest of the industry are very close to it versus possibly linking up with a strategic player that might have a broader distribution footprint already. So I guess question is independent versus the build out where are you on the mind set from that perspective?

Jonathan Steinberg

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open Bill

So I know that the analyst have often speculated that WisdomTree makes a very attractive acquisition and we understand the rationale from their perspective and its very flattering and I definitely agree that we have built this incredibly valuable franchise, but you also have to from our perspective two and the last three years we have been a top ten asset gatherer in America. We have achieved the highest margins in the industry and the outlook looks incredibly well, so we’re very committed to being an independent company, but we'll also do the right thing if the situation demands it. So that we'll focus so on building out the business and just growing our footprint.

William Katz

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open Bill

Okay if I could just one last one, on your $350 billion per year number and I know you gave some very broad thoughts on it in your prepared commentary could you sort of dive down later and what products or geographies do you think over next year or two offer the greatest opportunity in particular?

Jonathan Steinberg

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open Bill

So fist of all the, if you are talking geographies of U.S. listed funds and what regions will have strengthen meaning in Asia or Europe or America I’m not going to make those types of market calls. I think really there is we’re very excited about things that we have already put into place and some of the things that are coming to fruition. So like as an example, currency hedge is an important category for us. I believe that if you look back, if we look back 5 or 10 years from now, international equities, the default will be either fully hedged or dynamically hedged and that the least favorable will be unhedged. Now in a movement where you - unless you have real conviction that you have dollar weakness that’s the only time that you would really want to make you default or grow into unhedged equities. So we think that we’re really well positioned in that category and as Amit said we recently launched some dynamic currency hedge products and it still nascent for us and others, but we have a sort of an early lead. We’re very excited about having a broader and this is something that we’ve been building out over time, it’s starting with the zero and negative duration domestic equity ETFs but we are very excited about fixed income, domestic equities and we’re very excited about the small data points that are coming out and then the liquid alls [ph] we are committed to being a leader in liquid offs [ph] and we already have a very, very strong footprint in that category.

William Katz

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open Bill

Okay, thanks guys. I appreciate the color.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Michael Cyprys of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Michael Cyprys

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is open

Hey good morning, thanks for taking the question. Just curious we've seen some of the industry acquire online advisory, advisor platforms that is just another avenue for distribution, so just curious how you’re thinking about that as potential opportunity for WisdomTree and at this point do you feel you would have a full product suite for that type of robot advisor platform?

Jonathan Steinberg

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is open

So this is Jon. So the robot advisor or robot advisor is very, very positive for the ETF industry. These model portfolios tend to be very ETF centric, so we’re very excited about them. They’re not large yet, but we think they will continue to develop. And in terms of having the built-out suite for them, we see opportunities to continue to launch products to better align with all of these new emerging channels, so we are very focused on it.

Michael Cyprys

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is open

Okay. And then just shifting to regulation, you mentioned earlier that regulation is favorable for ETF, but could you touch upon some of the recent derivative regulation from the SEC and to what extent do you see that impacting ETF positively negatively for the industry and then also specifically for WisdomTree’s products and how that impacts your ability to use derivatives within your ETFs?

Jonathan Steinberg

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is open

Thank you. Great question, so the derivative rule really is another push by the regulators in top of liquidity and top of fiduciary and we are obviously we are very supportive of the government’s push towards transparency and liquidity. That said, this rule the derivative rule tries to, puts limits on derivatives exposure and requirements concerning the collateralization of derivative exposure generally. So just in very simple terms if the rule was passed as it is, we can comply with it if it was passed as it is. That is the simple answer. but this we definitely feel as others have commented that there may be some unintended consequences with this rule and we hope that they do make some adjustments, but if it as it is we can comply and our competitors would be in very similar positions meaning currency hedging would be on level playing field for all of the ETF sponsors. So, but anyway we are watching it very closely.

Michael Cyprys

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is open

Would you have to make any tweaks to your products or their existing or some of the new suite of fixed income and liquidity products you have coming down the pie?

Jonathan Steinberg

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is open

So obviously we have to wait to see what the final rule is and we can make tweaks if we have to, but again those tweaks will be in line with what others would have to do. It will be a level playing field for everybody.

Michael Cyprys

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is open

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Chris Shutler of William Blair. Your line is open.

Christopher Shutler

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open

Hey guys, good morning. I want to get more clarity on the comp guidance. I think in 2015 in the U.S. you had about $68 million of compensation expense, you say in Slide 19 to reset that by $11 million, so it takes you down to $57 million. So just to be clear, I want to make sure I understand this, would you expect that the comp in 2016 is roughly $57 million if AUM remained at year end levels and there were no flows, I just want to make sure that I understand how the flows and everything works into that $11 million decline in the base?

Amit Muni

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open

Yes that assumes a sort of average level of inflows on the take that takes that down to $10.9 million. Obviously if we have flows that incentive comp number will go up and we assume that we will have flows, I'm not telling you what that target is but it is built into that percent of revenue guidance that we gave. And as we've seen in the past if we don’t have flows we have a lot of flexibility in compensation. We have a paper performance model and we don’t have the flows then the compensation will be reflective of that.

Christopher Shutler

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open

Okay, thanks. And then just one more Jon, you said in the past I think you expect the vast majority of the flows for WisdomTree and the industry to come from products that are already in existence, I’m sure that is true for the industry but is that still your view for WisdomTree or how has your thinking evolved?

Jonathan Steinberg

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open

I think in general that is true, but that said we are an aggressive launcher of new products and you will have moments where new funds can really be a significant asset gatherer. So that point I made in the past was a generalization and I’m sure that in some of the new products that have been launched or will be launched in the near future, you will find some winners, significant winners as well.

Christopher Shutler

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open

All right, thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Macrae Sykes of Gabelli. Your line is open.

Macrae Sykes

Analyst · Gabelli. Your line is open

Good morning, gentlemen.

Jonathan Steinberg

Analyst · Gabelli. Your line is open

Good morning.

Macrae Sykes

Analyst · Gabelli. Your line is open

There seems to be quite a bit of interest recently in the currency plays in China. I mean we've seen some notable hedge funds commenting about potential short positions and I know you have the CYB which is not the most optimal product for that, but just curious if you are thinking about sort of that space with more awareness there in terms of developing other products that could be used to perhaps take negative bets on the Yuan?

Jonathan Steinberg

Analyst · Gabelli. Your line is open

Hi Macrae, it is Jon. We won't comment on product development after it has been filed. So we are aware of lots of trends and opportunities but we hesitate to get specific prior to a filing, sorry.

Macrae Sykes

Analyst · Gabelli. Your line is open

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Robert Lee of KBW. Your line is open.

Ann Dai

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open

Hi good morning everyone, this is Ann Dai standing in for Rob. Just wanted to circle back on the $300 billion kind of projection and maybe the 5% to 7% market share that you've guys had highlighted. So when we think about that growth in market share, how much of that is really just assuming that currency hedge and some of the products that you are stronger and take disproportionate share within the ETF market and how much are you assuming comes from building those new relationships and growing the distribution channels?

Jonathan Steinberg

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open

I think that you're going to see currency hedging as a category continue to perform very well in the coming years as more and more advisors are cognizant of the currency risk in the un-hedged equity exposures. So I think that the category will see growth and we are a leader in that category so we'll participate there. And then we're going to see a lot of growth coming from some of the new suites of products that we see liquid off, smart data fixed income and then we'll also see continued growth from these expanded sales channels that we've referred to in our growth spends over the last year or so.

Ann Dai

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open

Okay great, thank you. And just generally when you think about launching a new product, can you take us through the time line of how long it takes from kind of the thought occurring to launching the product to the point where it really starts to get some traction and generate some sales for you guys?

Jonathan Steinberg

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open

So, you know, it is hard to generalize this, so first of all sometimes it can be very quick to launch a product is little as a 100 days from idea to putting it into the market. Sometimes it can be years before the product actually gets into the market. Sometimes we launch a fund and it is out of favor and we saw that in last few things like the zero and negative durations we launched at the end of 2012 thinking the rates might go higher and they haven’t. So sometimes the digestive process for these funds to find footing can take more time, but then sometimes you just get lucky. So like DYB which we launched December 27, which is a bearish fund has been trading incredibly well in these volatile markets. So really it is very, very hard to generalize.

Ann Dai

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open

Okay, I appreciate it, thank you.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Mike Grondahl of Northland Securities. Your line is open.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst · Northland Securities. Your line is open

Yes, thanks guys for taking my two questions. First of all on the outflows, are you seeing anything you make are surprising in terms of the mix? And then maybe just secondly on your 12 to 15 new ETFs in 2016, any comments on the pace if you think that's more frontend loaded or backend loaded?

Jonathan Steinberg

Analyst · Northland Securities. Your line is open

I'm sorry, repeat the second half of the question?

Mike Grondahl

Analyst · Northland Securities. Your line is open

The second question was just your 12 to 15 new ETFs in 2016, just the pace of those rolling out, do you think they are more frontend loaded or backend loaded?

Amit Muni

Analyst · Northland Securities. Your line is open

Hey Mike, it's Amit. Yes I think they are going to be a little bit more frontend loaded, but we'll have to see as the year progresses, but from a planning standpoint we're thinking a little bit more frontend loaded.

Jonathan Steinberg

Analyst · Northland Securities. Your line is open

And in terms of the outflows nothing unusual as looks at the largest funds see in a downturn more outflows and usually see more inflows when the market sentiment changes favorably again.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst · Northland Securities. Your line is open

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Keith Housum of Northcoast Research. Your line is open, Keith.

Keith Housum

Analyst · Northcoast Research. Your line is open, Keith

Good morning gentlemen. The first quarter is for Amit, I'm just trying to understand the cadence of the top expense a little bit more. In the fourth quarter was there any inclusion of reversals of incentive compensation accruals?

Amit Muni

Analyst · Northcoast Research. Your line is open, Keith

Yes, so when we were accruing during the year we think about what a full year amount would look like. As a result we had outflows in the third quarter and we've reflected some of that in our third quarter call and then we had accelerated outflows in the fourth quarter. So it was a little bit of a sort of annual threw-up in that fourth quarter number.

Keith Housum

Analyst · Northcoast Research. Your line is open, Keith

Okay, that's helpful, thank you. And then Jon, just thinking about the industry and some of the conversations out there, can you speak to the competitive prices in terms of pricing the advisory fees? I mean you've seen pressure on the funds, the lower advisory fees and all, is that discussion been out there or is it nearly to save cost in the matter?

Jonathan Steinberg

Analyst · Northcoast Research. Your line is open, Keith

I mean you know the competitive dynamic is both a challenge and very exciting and a great benefit. I think we now have 74 to 75 sponsors. It is just becoming inevitable to everybody that this is where their energy should be, so it is really helping to grow the pie. In terms of the pricing dynamics, again the business model from day one really did anticipate this and that self indexing, differentiated product really is the only business model long-term in ETFs that we see that is sustainable. And we've launched products with an eye towards the long term and so you'll see, I mean recently the fund launches have in some of the categories have been slightly lower than prior fund launches just taking into account the lower fees at the moment that the funds are being launched, but we're always looking at these. We're very comfortable with where we are. So I mean, it is a challenge, but it is also an opportunity and we are very well positioned for it.

Keith Housum

Analyst · Northcoast Research. Your line is open, Keith

All right, is that challenge new or has that challenge always been there, I mean based on the regulatory basis?

Jonathan Steinberg

Analyst · Northcoast Research. Your line is open, Keith

It has always been there. It has been there since 1993 and really we saw very early the business model again positioned us with yes again, this is the best business model in light of all of the regulatory and competitive pressures in asset management.

Keith Housum

Analyst · Northcoast Research. Your line is open, Keith

Great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

And I am showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to WisdomTree for closing remarks.

Jonathan Steinberg

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open Craig

Excellent. Thank you all for your time, and attention, and support, and we will speak to you next quarter.