Earnings Labs

Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM)

Q3 2009 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 19, 2009

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Williams-Sonoma Incorporated third quarter 2009 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Steve Nelson, Director of Investor Relations to discuss non-GAAP measures and forward-looking statements.

Stephen C. Nelson

Management

Good morning. This morning's conference call should be considered in conjunction with the press release that we issued earlier today. Our press release and this call contain non-GAAP financial measures that exclude the impact of unusual business events. These non-GAAP financial measures are provided to facilitate meaningful year over year comparisons. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and an explanation of why these non-GAAP financial measures are useful are discussed in Exhibit One of the press release. The forward-looking statements included in this call constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform of 1995. These statements address the financial condition, results of operations, business initiatives, guidance, growth plans and prospects of the company in 2009 and beyond and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. Please refer to the company's current press releases and SEC filings for more information on these risks and uncertainties. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that may arise after the date of this call. I will now turn the conference call over to Howard Lester, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

W. Howard Lester

Management

Good morning and thanks for joining us. With me today is Laura Alber, our President; Pat Connolly, our Chief Marketing Officer; and Sharon McCollam, our Chief Operating and Chief Financial Officer. I want to begin today with an overview of our third quarter 2009 results and our outlook for the balance of the year. Then I'll turn the call over to Sharon and Laura for further details. While the home furnishing sector remained under pressure in the third quarter, we were extremely pleased to see our business trends improve. Throughout the quarter, we saw a strengthening consumer response to both our merchandising and marketing strategies and progressively better than expected sales and margins. We also saw ongoing financial and operational benefits from our cost containment and inventory management initiatives and a significant improvement in cash flow. In the third quarter on a 3% revenue decline, we delivered non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.16 versus a $0.10 loss last year. We also continued to strengthen the balance sheet and ended the quarter with a record Q3 cash balance of $229 million. During the quarter, comparable store sales were positive for the first time in eight quarters. This has created strong momentum in the field and the timing couldn’t be better as we enter the holiday season. Comparable store sales increased 1.7%, which is both a one-year and a two-year trend improvement versus the first half of the year. This is encouraging because it validates the emphasis we have placed on driving traffic and conversion and demonstrates the effectiveness of our in-store marketing. In our core brands, sales trends improved in every brand. In total, net revenues decreased 2%. Pottery Barn, where we saw the greatest improvement, increased 1%. Williams-Sonoma decreased 2% and Pottery Barn Kids by 5%. What is most…

Sharon L. McCollam

Management

Thank you, Howard. Good morning. Our third quarter results did once again substantially exceed our expectations as we strive to capture market share, optimize our advertising dollars, drive efficiencies in our supply chain, and maximize profitability and cash flow. The P&L highlights were as follows -- net revenues decreased 3% to $729 million. Retail net revenues increased 1%, including a comparable store sales increase of 1.7%. Direct-to-customer net revenues on the other hand decreased 8% but would have been in line with the total company revenue decline had it not been for the impact of revenue recognition and private label credit card discounts. Catalog circulation during the quarter was down 18% and 21% respectively for catalog and catalog pages circ’d, and Internet revenues were down 7%. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.16 versus a loss of $0.10 last year. These results were $0.11 above both the high-end of guidance and the first call consensus estimate. Stronger than expected sales, greater than expected full price selling, and earlier than expected financial benefits from our 2009 supply chain initiatives drove these better than expected results. GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.07, including a $0.06 charge associated with underperforming retail stores and a $0.03 charge associated with the closure of excess distribution capacity. Non-GAAP gross margin 290 basis points to 34.9%. This improvement was driven by a decrease in cost of merchandise sold, including the benefit from reduce markdowns, reduced freight costs, favourable replacement and damage expense, and occupancy expense reductions. And finally, non-GAAP SG&A expenses decreased 330 basis points to 31.1%. This decrease was driven by the ongoing benefits from our infrastructure cost reduction program and catalog circulation optimization strategy, partially offset by an increase in incentive compensation. We also significantly strengthened the balance sheet during the quarter with the…

Laura J. Alber

Management

Thank you, Sharon. Good morning. I will start with the Pottery Barn brand. Net revenues in the third quarter decreased a better than expected 1%. This decline was driven by a decrease in the direct-to-customer channel partially offset by a 7.6% increase in comparable store sales. Although demand in the direct-to-customer channel was positive in the third quarter, net revenues were lower due to the impact from revenue recognition and private label credit card discounts. We are extremely encouraged by these results because they continue to demonstrate a sustaining trend of top line improvement on both a one-year and two-year basis and affirm the effectiveness of our strategies to drive customers to the brand. From a merchandising perspective, all key categories with the exception of table top delivered positive growth during the quarter. A strong cohesive assortment, compelling price points, and attractive private label credit card program drove these better-than-expected results. From an operational perspective during the quarter, gross margin continued to climb as the cumulative benefits of our inventory management and supply chain initiatives began hitting the P&L. These initiatives include strategically balancing inventory levels with full priced selling and margin objectives, partnering with our vendors to reduce berth costs, re-negotiating our ocean freight and furniture delivery contracts, in-sourcing our furniture delivery hubs, and expanding our upholstered furniture operations. In direct marketing, the catalog, circulation, optimization strategy continued to drive better-than-expected results on both on both the top and bottom lines, as we continue to shift our investment in marginal catalog circulation to e-commerce. As we look forward to the fourth quarter, we are very encouraged by the strong consumer response that we have seen to both our fall and holiday merchandise assortments and are appropriately chasing inventory across categories. As such, we believe the strategies we have in…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Colin McGranahan with Sanford Bernstein.

Analyst for Colin McGranahan - Sanford C. Bernstein

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

It’s [Avery Sheffield] filling in for Colin. I was curious, relating to the catalog optimization strategy, this quarter the direct sales growth outpaced or the decline outpaced the decline in mailings. Is this giving you a sense that you might be at a turning point of cutting catalog circulation?

Sharon L. McCollam

Management

Pat, would you take that question, please?

Patrick J. Connolly

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

Actually, I think it is a turning point for us. We’ve seen some substantial improvements in the catalogs that we have mailed most recently here toward the end of the quarter and at the same time, we are looking at a number of new programs in e-commerce that are replacing some of the marginal catalog mailings we are doing, we have been doing. We are very excited about the prospects we see going forward.

Operator

Operator

Next we’ll hear from Matthew Fassler with Goldman Sachs.

Matthew Fassler - Goldman Sachs

Analyst · Goldman Sachs

I want to focus on SG&A -- can you talk about the kind of variable expenses that might kick in as your comps turn positive, first excluding incentive compensation, whether it’s labor or other SG&A and then secondly, if you can kind of help quantify the magnitude of the incentive numbers in the quarter and in the fourth quarter, if you happen to exceed your gross profit numbers, is there a point at which the incentives could take the SG&A up as well? Thanks so much.

Sharon L. McCollam

Management

Matt, as far as the variable expenses go related to upside in the fourth quarter, when you think about our business, the places that you are going to see variable SG&A on the upside is going to be in store labor but of course remember that doesn’t take your fixed expense up. If we start seeing better comps, we will need to put more people on the floor in our stores. Then, when you look at the call centers, you have the same dynamic and then of course you have to ship the product, so that would be from a DC point of view. But it’s only the variable piece of that, not the fixed. On the downside when you look at the conservatism that I have in the guidance for SG&A, the issue there is that when you are staffing to achieve a certain number, you bring people in and if the sales don’t come, of course, then you deleverage. So that’s the downside and the upside associated with that. As it relates to incentive compensation, the incentive compensation is in at where we believe that if these results occurred, it would come. I don’t expect to see substantial additional SG&A to come into that above and beyond this guidance in the event that we do over-achieve, so I don’t see that going up from that perspective. I think those were all your questions.

Operator

Operator

Next we’ll hear from Alan Rifkin with Banc of America Merrill Lynch.

Analyst for Alan Rifkin - Banc of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Banc of America Merrill Lynch

This is [Vincent Sinisi] in for Alan. Sharon, first question, if I can, if you could just give any color in terms of what you saw, whether it be by housing markets, you know, geography, or if it was really just kind of a broad-based, broad improvement? Obviously you noted the factors that came in basically across the board ahead of expectations. Just wondering if geography had anything to do with it.

Sharon L. McCollam

Management

You know, across the country, we saw very similar lift in performance. I think if you wanted to get down into small details and looking at very small markets across the country, I think you would say that some of the areas that were hit so hard last year after Lehman’s fell, the high net worth areas where people took that impact, in those markets where we have our highest end stores, we did see what we would consider to be out of the pack performance in some of those markets and I think that would be related to how bad they got a year ago. But generally across the country we saw a lift everywhere, which is why we are very encouraged and why we feel so confident in the increase of our fourth quarter guidance because we are not seeing it in any one place or one category. Our whole business has lifted.

Analyst for Alan Rifkin - Banc of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Banc of America Merrill Lynch

Okay, great and just one follow-up -- as you are planning further toward the holiday advertising strategies, I noticed that your full-year catalog circulation is now expected to be down 16% to 17% versus 17 to 19 prior, a slight difference there -- is that just simply a case where you are getting, you are seeing the better results than you originally saw or is there something more to that in terms of catalog focus versus e-commerce?

Sharon L. McCollam

Management

I’m going to let Pat speak to that. Catalog circulation is a surgical process, so Pat, could you speak to it?

Patrick J. Connolly

Analyst · Banc of America Merrill Lynch

Well, I don’t know if it is that surgical but our catalog circulation decreases will be in the neighbourhood of around 13% in Q4, so they will be less than Q3 and less than the year overall and I’d point out in Q3 that the minus 18 was against a plus 1% in demand, so we are very encouraged by the results that we saw there, particularly in Pottery Barn.

Operator

Operator

Next we’ll hear from Budd Bugatch with Raymond James.

Analyst for Budd Bugatch - Raymond James

Analyst · Raymond James

This is actually T.J. [McConville] filling in for Budd. Sharon or Laura, you both made reference to the revenue offset based on the private label credit card penetration -- was there an increase in penetration of private label credit card or was there a change in the deal that you are offering?

Sharon L. McCollam

Management

I’ll let Laura speak to how they are using the private label credit card in Pottery Barn. We did not implement the aggressive programs that we have in place today until post-Lehman last year. So in many cases, these are new programs to the brands and they are absolutely supporting the business today. It is a significant investment -- you know, it’s like a markdown. We have two key programs in place. The first one is a 12-month same-as-cash program, which is very different than what other retailers are offering because in our 12-month same-as-cash program, we have no retroactive interest. So if you don’t pay it at the end of 12 months, they don’t come back at the credit card company and charge you the retroactive interest all the way back to the first day of the purchase. That of course costs us a significant amount of money to pay the third party credit card provider for the loss of that interest on the retroactive side. Then we implemented -- enhanced, actually -- our loyalty program but Laura, would you like to speak to how it is driving Pottery Barn and what you are seeing from a penetration point of view, et cetera?

Laura J. Alber

Management

Sure. As Sharon said, it continues to gain momentum and we really believe it helps the customer make the decisions they want to make and actually purchase the product, particularly at retail, on the higher ticket and it’s been a great tool for the sales force at retail and it does cost us money. We believe it is the right thing to do now and we also see great loyalty -- when they receive their rewards, they come back and they spend even more than the rewards are and that we believe is incremental revenue. So all in, the program is working for us, although it does hit the P&L on the margin line.

Operator

Operator

Next we’ll hear from Joe Feldman with Telsey Advisory Group.

Joe Feldman - Telsey Advisory Group

Analyst · Telsey Advisory Group

I wanted to ask you about West Elm -- I know Laura was running through the commentary pretty quickly. And she made a comment about West Elm doing better, expected to do better in the fourth quarter. I was hoping you could just give me a little more color on what you think is going to drive that.

Laura J. Alber

Management

Sure. I’m sorry for speaking quickly -- my comment was in reference to improved in-stock on some key furniture collections that were extremely depleted previous to this period, so just getting back in stock is going to significantly affect the top line performance.

Joe Feldman - Telsey Advisory Group

Analyst · Telsey Advisory Group

Thank you, and then if I could ask a quick follow-up -- on PBTeen, if I recall correctly, you guys were testing it in a couple of stores and even a freestanding store. I was just curious about an update on that.

Laura J. Alber

Management

Sure. Yes, we are pleased with the results so far. You know, it was an opportunistic strategy. We had a store, a thread store that wasn’t working that we converted. We had the real estate and we wanted to see if we could make this work and it is working. It’s really a show room for the catalog in terms of it’s very small square footage. It’s in New York City and that’s performing well. We also added the product into our store in Chicago and it’s in our kid’s store where there was a separate entrance and a separate space for the teen merchandise, which we think is really important and we are seeing nice results there. Not only is it doing well in terms of square footage, but it is driving the kids business as well in terms of we believe getting more traffic into the store. At this point, it is not a strategy, it is not a rollout strategy. It is something we did because we had the real estate and we believed it would help the existing real estate perform better. But we are incredibly pleased with the performance of PBTeen as a direct-to-consumer only strategy and are continuing to focus on growing it and we do not feel limited -- we don’t feel limited in our growth by the fact that we don’t have stores. We actually believe that it’s a great model and we are so excited about its future.

Operator

Operator

Next we’ll hear from Matt Neemer with Wells Fargo Securities.

Analyst for Matt Neemer - Wells Fargo Securities

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

It’s actually [Tricia Dylan] for Matt -- just a quick question on the direct business. With indirect, when you are looking at trends on a two-year basis, it looks like catalog sales trends improved sequentially from 2Q to 3Q but Internet sales trends got a little worse. Can you talk about what might be driving the difference outside of lower clearance activity this year? Intuitively it seems like Internet sales would be better than catalog, given just overall outperformance of e-commerce.

Sharon L. McCollam

Management

I’m going to let Pat talk about the multi-channel catalog e-commerce, what we are doing there and how it is affecting us. Pat, why don’t you take that?

Patrick J. Connolly

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Well, on a -- I think that because the catalog drives so much revenue to the web, that that may be misleading in looking at that. I think you are referring to the fact that catalog circulation was down more than revenue where the e-commerce revenues didn’t grow as much but that’s really -- you have to really combine both of them together. We are very pleased with how the overall trend is moving, especially sequentially here toward the end of the quarter and moving into the fourth quarter.

Laura J. Alber

Management

I do want to make the comment to add to that that in our direct business, we have significant decrease in markdown activity sale goods and that is -- you know, as you look at the gross margin dollar comp, if you will, we are seeing significant improvement over last year in our merchandise margins. However, we know, as Sharon mentioned in her earlier comments, that it does affect the top line a little bit. But we know it’s the right trade.

Operator

Operator

Next we’ll hear from David Magee with SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.

Analyst for David Magee - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

This is [Kris Rabaldjay] on the call for David. Just looking at Pottery Barn and the sustainability of some of the pick-up that you have seen there, do you feel like it is mostly pent-up demand from existing customers, new customers, or to what extent it’s either of those? And then also in regions where you have seen some consolidation in the space, do you feel like that’s been helping to drive the improvement?

Sharon L. McCollam

Management

Laura, do you want to speak to that?

Laura J. Alber

Management

Sure, thank you. You know, we do believe that there is some pent-up demand and we also know that we are getting new customers into the brand and we measure that all the time. We’ve seen a turnaround at our new customer metrics and we are very focused on driving new customers in with our strategies, both in product, our paid search and e-marketing strategies, and our strategies in-store and in our catalog printing with lower price point products, prominently displayed because lower price point tends to drive new customers in. So you will see us continue to focus on that to get our -- get new customers to the brand. We also -- we believe we are picking up market share as people either close their doors or as their strategies don’t work as well as they had hoped and we are just absolutely focused on the things we know our customers appreciate, which are great product quality, reasonable prices, and great service. And that has been the focus that we have had for the last two years and we are seeing that pay off and we know that there is still room to improve all of those areas. So we believe we are going to continue to see sequential improvement in the Pottery Barn brand, both in top line and margins as the customer continues to notice the changes we have made and we are not counting on the economy to improve our business. We believe the customer has fundamentally changed the way they shop. They expect more. They want value, and we are committed to delivering it to them.

Patrick J. Connolly

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Let me add one thing to what Laura said -- we were seeing in the most recent mailings in Pottery Barn a significant improvement in the comparable segment performance of the catalogs, which is very positive. And we have seen a significant increase in new customer acquisition that really began with the first drop of the fall catalog and has continued. The other tactic that we have employed is a very successful reactivation strategy that is working in concert with these opening price point strategies that Laura has implemented that has helped to bring back some of the customers who hadn’t been buying from us for several years.

Operator

Operator

Next we’ll hear from Laura Champine with Cowen & Company. Laura Champine - Cowen & Company: It’s obvious that you have done a good job taking the cost structure back to before boom levels but I’ve got a big picture question about the top lines -- the sales are off about $900 million from the peak, about $300 million from last year. How long in a normalized economy do you think it takes, given where you are in the maturity of your various concepts to make up the difference?

Sharon L. McCollam

Management

We are currently improving each quarter and I think the question is, this is all about math. What we could say to you as far as an answer goes is nothing more than a mathematical calculation and we are not sitting here today saying that we know where this economy is going. What we believe about the economy, what we have consistently said is that we believe that it is a reset, that it will be slow growth going forward. What we are focused on is improving our cash flow and our operating margins and bringing our business model in line with it on the upside. We all know that the leverage is substantial. So as far as where -- what it takes to get there, we peaked at 10% operating margins and what we would like to see is over the next three to four years, that we just can gradually and incrementally improve those margins with a little bit of top line -- I’m talking low-single-digit. We absolutely see gross margins, selling margin improvement that is still a big opportunity. You know, we’ve talked today a lot about the improvement in our selling margins but we are in no way back to the levels that we saw pre-recession. So in the selling margin, we have opportunity. Occupancy, we are continuing to bring that in line. It takes a little time, so that’s why I am saying three to four years. You’ve got to bring that in line. But everything we are doing is not about hoping that the economy does a hockey stick improvement. Everything we are doing is about getting our cash flows back to historical levels and we have to accept where the economy goes at this point and we expect to gain market share in this environment.

Operator

Operator

Next we’ll hear from Anthony Chukumba with FTN Equity Capital Markets.

Anthony Chukumba - FTN Equity Capital Markets

Analyst · FTN Equity Capital Markets

I just had a question -- I mean, on Williams-Sonoma Home -- you mentioned that the revenue margin trends did not improve. It sounds like the high-end consumer really hasn’t kind of come back or people are not buying things at higher price points and I was just wondering -- is that also sort of applicable to the rest of your businesses as well? In other words, are you seeing a lot more demand with some of the newer entry level price point products as opposed to some of your higher price point products?

Sharon L. McCollam

Management

Absolutely not. This is a dynamic that appears to be related to the luxury home furnishings market. We are seeing furniture run at the same percent of sales in our other brands. We’ve seen actually improvement in our high-end ticket. When you think about Williams-Sonoma, where we are seeing strong sales, it’s in cookware, it’s in electric, and those are pretty high price point products. But in Williams-Sonoma Home, that is the only brand we have that we believe truly participates in what we would define and what anyone would probably define as true luxury. And I think that that is a very tough area and we continue -- we are assessing it, we are looking at it, and we will keep you posted but the numbers that we see in Williams-Sonoma Home in no way are comparable to the numbers that we are seeing in any other brand.

Operator

Operator

Next we’ll hear from Janet Kloppenberg with JJK Research.

Janet Kloppenberg - JJK Research

Analyst · JJK Research

A couple of questions -- I know your inventories are down dramatically and I know that your holiday product is selling well. I’m just wondering, Laura, if you could talk about any possibility of shortages that could temper the sales results for holiday. And also, I think you had some pretty strong promotions last year in the fourth quarter --

Laura J. Alber

Management

I’m sorry, are you done? The phone cut off. Sure, I’d love to answer that, Janet. We are seeing better than expected results on our holiday assortment. We are off to a strong start. It looks like customers are decorating again and we know that they are entertaining at home. We are pretty well-positioned in terms of inventory. We do have some areas that we will be short on, like we always have. And particularly in some of the newer items but we are marketing what we own. We are -- we have a lot of other great products. We have pushed out more core products to our stores. We are pulling up some spring new flow for late December and we feel confident that we can achieve the levels that we have guided to in terms of if we substantially start beating the number, I will probably be talking next time about chasing even more inventory. We are looking very closely at the receipt flow for our spring assortment, which we think is also incredibly strong, and placing our bets on items that are similar to the ones that are selling well now. I think what is great about it is that we are retraining our customer to buy things as they come out versus waiting for the markdown. In terms of promotions, we believe that promotions in this time are an important way to bring new customers in and to compete with the competition that is highly promotional and we have planned our promotions already. So we have bought into them for the holiday season and we are going to be able to execute them, which is a very important part of our longer term strategy of growth. So you will not see us pull back on the planned promotions. We can execute them and you will see us buy back into some of the fast-movers and market what we own.

Operator

Operator

Next we’ll hear from Scott Ciccarelli with RBC Capital Markets.

Scott Ciccarelli - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

Sharon, could you give us just a quick housekeeping item -- what was the impact of the clearance sales from last year as we try and figure out the actual run-rates of the business?

Sharon L. McCollam

Management

Last year -- you know, everything we are talking about is on a two-year trend basis but last year specifically in the fourth quarter, we have quantified that number previously at $20 million. It’s about 2% of fourth quarter sales last year.

Operator

Operator

Next we’ll hear from Neely Tamminga with Piper Jaffray.

Neely Tamminga - Piper Jaffray

Analyst · Piper Jaffray

Congratulations and good luck for holiday. My question is about the outlook, or the outlook for outlet -- how would we be thinking about that considering you’ve done such a great job at inventory reduction? And maybe not just Q4 but as we look into next year too. Thank you.

Sharon L. McCollam

Management

Outlet is not a strategy for our company per se. As you know, we only have 18 stores by the end of this year and the outlet is definitely an opportunity for us to clear merchandise. I’ll let Laura, she’s got the biggest outlet business because she runs the biggest businesses, and we’ve had a lot of focus on the outlet this year so I would like to turn this over to Laura and let her talk about what they are doing in the Pottery Barn outlet and then Sonoma is doing very similar things, so Laura, maybe you could speak to that.

Laura J. Alber

Management

Sure. We put the outlet businesses into the brands so that we could ensure that the experience was on brand and that we had not only a place to liquidate profitably overstocks and chip and dent from our mail order business but also that we were buying into goods to make the entire assortment compelling for the outlet customer. And we are -- we have seen a reduction in total inventories in our outlet stores, similar to the reduction we see in our full line stores. We have a strategy where we buy into core product and into past bestsellers to feed our outlet stores and that is working. Our focus is really to improve the shopping experience, to clear the inventory profitably, and overall to improve the profitability of the brand by improving the productivity in the outlets, and we are well on track in all brands to do that.

Operator

Operator

Next we’ll hear from Christian Boothe with Thomas Weisel.

Christian Boothe - Thomas Weisel

Analyst · Thomas Weisel

I was wondering if you could provide some perspective into the accelerated store closings.

Sharon L. McCollam

Management

Absolutely. Howard, would you like to speak to that, please?

W. Howard Lester

Management

Well, you know, we are working hard in our real estate department with our landlords on opportunities to close stores that had become marginal because of the sales that we have had out of this economy and it is slow going. You can see by the numbers but we are trying to persevere. We are working hard with the landlords and trying to be as creative as possible and think a lot about what our store base is going to look like and what we are going to pay for it in this refit economy as we go forward over the next two or three years, that Sharon spoke of.

Sharon L. McCollam

Management

Additionally, we are also making substantial progress on the renegotiations. You know, what you see in the P&L or in the guidance that we provide is the store closures. We are not disclosing and are not going to disclose because of the confidentiality agreements we have with landlords, the renegotiations that are also occurring. Numbers we have provided you previously is between now and 2012, a quarter of all of our store leases are coming up for renewal and every time that happens, one of those stores is an opportunity to renegotiate. We also are finding an increasing number of opportunities on the co-tenancy side and we believe in ‘010 even more of those will actually occur because a lot of the store closings that have been announced by retailers over the last 12 months actually have not closed. They are not closing until the end of this year, so when you get into GLA co-tenancy failures, and even some named co-tenancy failures, those are going to surface in 2010 as well, so there is going to be another bite at the apple in 2010.

Operator

Operator

Next we’ll hear from Brad Thomas with Keybanc Capital Markets.

Brad Thomas - Keybanc Capital Markets

Analyst · Keybanc Capital Markets

Sharon, in the past I believe you had cited consumer confidence as the economic factor that is one of the most important if not the most important as it relates to your business. But as it relates to the housing market, could you maybe talk about what you are seeing within your -- within the data that you collect? Are you seeing a benefit from the increased existing home sales and do you think that that could be a tailwind for you going forward?

Sharon L. McCollam

Management

We do. We’ve actually had some consulting work done on this very question. I thank you for asking it because we really like to discuss the data that we received. The three key drivers that they see today of our performance, because now they can look back pre-recession and post-recession, what they believe the drivers are of our business are consumer confidence, unemployment, and housing. And housing in and of itself, even if it improved, is likely not going to dramatically change our trends until you get unemployment and consumer confidence going in the same direction. So we believe now based on their looking back that these three are extraordinarily tied together. What we believe is going to fuel our business going into the next couple of years, assuming that we don’t believe there is going to be a hockey stick, is the opportunity to gain share. We are absolutely on target with our strategies and you guys can see it in the numbers -- it’s not one brand. It is every single brand that is improving. And our focus on value and classic style and the promotional programs that we are doing which by the way, the one thing that thought Laura said that was -- is compelling is the fact that these promotions are not necessarily hurting our margins. And so that is what is so exciting about it, is we are able to give the customer that little bit of promotional push that they need in order to turn the sale. But we are not having to give up margin at the same time, so that is something that we are very encouraged about, is the way this is going. So that is how we are seeing it. But you have to look at those three together -- any one in and of itself is probably going to be depressed by the other two, so we are really focused on all three of them.

Operator

Operator

Next we’ll hear from Kristine Koerber with JMP Securities.

Analyst for Kristine Koerber - JMP Securities

Analyst · JMP Securities

This is Jennifer filling in for Kristine -- a quick follow-up on your ability to gain share; are you continuing to see the same level of store closings and inventory liquidations that you have seen in periods past and how -- what is your outlook? A little color on the competitive environment would be helpful.

Sharon L. McCollam

Management

Internally, we have taken our benchmarking of competitors to a new level and actually, when we think about our business, although we are very focused on the home furnishing side, there has not been in this quarter any additional major announcements of any massive store closures that relates to home furnishings. What we see going away as we are out and about doing our visits of retail establishments is the closure of a lot of independent boxes that are out there selling home furnishings. That’s been -- I think that’s going to continue. The place that we think we are still competing against beyond home furnishings, and we look at this particularly for holiday, is you are competing against everyone and in the brands when they are talking about the competitive set, we are talking about share of wallet. At Williams-Sonoma, it is not just for a gift, it’s not just another home furnishings retailer that is our competition. It’s the competition of anything that is being sold in the mall -- a cashmere sweater versus something in electrics in Williams-Sonoma. So we are really looking at it more broadly but I think what you can feel great about as investors is the fact that we have taken benchmarking of other retailers behaviour -- home furnishings and others to a new level in the company and our purchasing metrics on other retailers through the e-commerce sites, we are acquiring data that is helping us know what others are doing, it’s benefiting us from a strategy point of view and that is where we are -- those are the things that we are looking at today, not just home furnishings retailer boxes that are going away.

Operator

Operator

That will conclude today’s question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call over to Howard Lester for closing comments.

W. Howard Lester

Management

Thank you for joining us and we will talk to you at the end of the next quarter, and the year. Thank you.