Dominic Canuso
Analyst · Piper Sandler
Thanks, Rodger. Good afternoon, everyone, and happy New Year. We are excited to turn the page to the second year of our three year strategic plan, which is focused on transformation and delivering on the opportunities in the greater Philadelphia and Delaware marketplace, resulting from the successful close, conversion and integration of Beneficial. Our 2020 outlook that we will walk through today and outlined in the supplemental materials posted on our website, is based on performance expectations consistent with our original Beneficial acquisition pro forma and our three year strategic plan as we continue to see opportunities consistent with or better than original expectations. These performance expectations build on our strong 2019 financial and operating results. And incorporate the opportunities we see in our pipeline, existing relationship opportunities and revenue synergy business cases. Highlights for our outlook include the following. Loan growth is expected in the low to mid-single-digit percentage points, driven by mid to high single-digit organic growth, offset by purposeful runoff of nonstrategic, non-relationship portfolio. Deposits are expected to grow in the mid-single digits, including mid to high single-digit for deposit growth, offset somewhat with modest post-conversion and branch consolidation attrition. And purposeful runoff of higher cost CDs. A net interest margin in the range of 4.10% to 4.15%. This includes 125 basis point Fed rate decrease midyear, 30 basis points of modeled beneficial accretion and 5 to 10 basis points of incremental beneficial accretion based on the pace of attrition in the runoff portfolios given the current rate environment. Core fee income is assumed to grow in the low single digits. This lower than historical growth rate is impacted by three key factors: One, Durbin's effect on debit interchange rates beginning in July 2020, which alone reduces the fee growth by 4 percentage points. Two, the full year impact of conversion-related product mapping that occurred late in the third quarter of 2019. And three, the interest rate environment impact on cash connect’s bailment fees, which is fully offset by lower funding costs. Excluding these near-term headwinds, fee income would have grown in the high single digits driven by double-digit growth in both wealth and mortgage businesses. Core efficiency ratio is expected to be approximately 59%. This includes fully achieving the 90% of integration cost savings consistent with the original year two projection in the Beneficial deal model. It also includes the first full year of our delivery transformation investment. When normalizing for the interest rate environment versus our original strategic plan, the efficiency ratio would be approximately 55%. Credit costs are forecasted to be approximately 26 basis points of loans for $20 million to $24 million on a full year basis after the adoption of CECL. That amount is the amount that runs through the P&L in 2020 after the day one increase in ACL, which is taken directly through the balance sheet. Our current estimate of the day one impact from our CECL adoption is approximately a $30 million to $40 million increase in reserves from our 2019 year-end position resulting in an ACL coverage ratio between 90 and 100 basis points of loans. Addressed in the supplemental materials on Slide 8, this increase is primarily driven by the mix of our organic and acquired portfolios plus our asset class mix, driven by historical loss experiences and weighted average life of each portfolio. We continue to finalize and validate our assumptions and model outputs and will provide additional information in our upcoming 10-K filings. The outlook includes a core effective tax rate of approximately 24%, consistent with our strategic plan, which is a slight increase in 2019 due to lower expected stock-based compensation activity. Consistent with our strategic plan theme of transformation, we are excited to enter our first full year of delivery transformation and to meaningfully progress our efforts in landing our physical and digital delivery channels, consistent with our brand and mission. In 2019, working with our strategic partner, we focused on refining the delivery transformation program, resulting in our commitment to increase our initial incremental investment and to accelerate our time line from 5 years to 3 years. This increase and acceleration is based on a continued rapid evolution of technology in our banking industry, along with the opportunity to more quickly enhance our customer experience and accelerate operational efficiencies and ROI. We have provided additional context in the supplemental materials on Slide 6 and 7, including a list of specific initiatives across three major areas customer acquisition, customer experience and IT infrastructure. Finally, some comments on capital management. It is our long-standing practice to return at least 25% of annual net income to shareholders through a combination of our purposely low dividend and routine share buybacks regardless of price. When we are in a position of excess capital, and our share price is such that buying incremental shares as an IRR of over 18%. We will engage in incremental buyback. Given our strong excess capital position and our current share price, consistent with both the third and fourth quarter of 2019, we intend to be aggressive buyers of our stock in the foreseeable future. Even at levels moderately and above the current market price. Overall, we expect to achieve a full year core ROA of approximately 1.44%, and achieve our strategic plan objectives in 2020. Excluding the significantly lower interest rate environment versus expectations 18 months ago. Specifically, base rates that are 150 basis points lower. Our outlook performance is slightly favorable to our original strategic plan estimates. As always, we are focused on and expect to deliver sustainable, high-performance to find this top quintile ROA in our peer group. Thank you for joining us on this call today. We will now open up the line, and our team is happy to answer any questions you may have. Thank you.