Earnings Labs

Warby Parker Inc. (WRBY)

Q3 2021 Earnings Call· Fri, Nov 12, 2021

$22.67

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Bethany and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Warby Parker Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. I would now like to introduce your host, Tina Romani, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Tina Romani

Analyst

Thank you and good morning everyone. Here with me today are Neil Blumenthal and Dave Gilboa, our Co-Founders and Co-CEOs, alongside Steve Miller, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, we have a couple of reminders. Our earnings released inside presentation are available on our website at investors.warbyparker.com. During this call, and in our presentation, we will be making comments of a forward-looking nature. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied as a result of various risks and uncertainties. For more information about some of these risks, please review the company’s SEC filings, including the section titled Risk Factors in the prospectus filed by the company in connection with its direct listing. These forward-looking statements are based on information as of November 12, 2021, and we assume no obligation to publicly update or revise our forward-looking statements. Additionally, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP financial measures are in addition to and not a substitute for measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of these items to the nearest US-GAAP measure can be found in this morning’s press release and our slide deck available on our IR website. With that, it’s my pleasure to turn the call over to Neil to kick things off.

Neil Blumenthal

Analyst

Thanks, Tina. And good morning, everyone. After 11 years as a private company, we’re excited to host our first earnings call on the heels of a strong quarter and a successful direct listing. We’d like to start by highlighting team Warby, our talented and engaged team continues to thrive while demonstrating strength and resilience during this challenging pandemic. One of the highlights of Dave and my careers was celebrating our direct listing alongside team Warby both inside the New York Stock Exchange and virtually across the US and Canada. The pride that all of us felt was palpable. Through everyone’s hard work and shared commitment to doing good team Warby will continue to have an outsized impact on our customers, our shareholders and the communities we serve. As we reflect on our business today, we’re grateful to operate in a large and growing market. According to the vision Council, the US optical market is roughly $42 billion with an incremental 100 billion internationally and with expectations for robust growth at a rate greater than GDP. With over half a billion in revenue, we still represent only 1% of the US market, underscoring the tremendous opportunity we have ahead. We started Warby Parker in 2010, because we were frustrated consumers, frustrated by the high and opaque price of glasses and an antiquated shopping experience. Since our founding, we’ve pioneered ideas, design products and developed technologies that help people say. We design and sell prescription glasses starting at $95 and offer a range of convenient and affordable vision care products and services, like eye exams and contacts across our more than 150 retail stores, our website and our apps. By selling directly to our customers and cutting out the man, we are able to deliver exceptional value and remarkable customer service while…

Dave Gilboa

Analyst

Thanks, Neil, I’d like to echo your sentiments in thanking our incredible team and also share a heartfelt thank you to all of our stakeholders who have supported us in our journey into our new shareholders, and those whom we are meeting for the first time on today’s call. Thank you for joining. We’re so glad you’re here. With that in mind, and as we focus on achieving sustainable growth and look to increase our 1% market share in the US, we’re focused on four distinct but complementary growth strategies. First, scaling our omni channel experience by expanding our retail footprint and driving innovation through our website apps and integrated digital experience. Second, expanding our core glasses business, while deepening our penetration of progressive lenses. Third, evolving into a holistic vision care company, as we scaled contact lenses, eye exams and telehealth services. And fourth, driving brand awareness using a strategic mix of organic and paid initiatives to amplify our reach. I’m excited to share a few milestones we achieved against each of these four growth strategies during the quarter. Starting with scaling our omni channel experience. We designed Warby Parker from the ground up as a true omni channel brand and we’re excited to continue to scale both our store footprint and leading digital offerings. We opened nine new stores in the quarter and entered five new markets including San Antonio, Texas, Tucson, Arizona and Princeton, New Jersey. Bring in year to date openings to 28. We’re on track to open 35 stores this year, the most stores we’ve ever opened in a year, which will bring our store count to 161. This is still just a fraction of the 41,000 optical shops that exist in the US today. As a reminder, we commissioned a third party study that…

Steve Miller

Analyst

Thanks Neil and Dave. I wanted to start by sharing just how excited I am to welcome all of you to our first earnings call. As you know, the company went public through direct listing roughly six weeks ago, and we couldn’t have done that without the support of all of our team members, customers, partners and investors, both existing and new. I also wanted to thank all the sell side analysts covering our stock who’ve taken the time to get to know the company dig into our numbers and share their perspectives on the business. As David Neil mentioned earlier, the vision Council measures the size of the optical market at roughly $42 billion, including prescription and non prescription glasses, contact lenses and eye exams, and Warby Parker accounts for just 1% of this market, representing tremendous room for growth ahead. I’ll start by talking about top line trends. We’re very happy with the top line momentum we’re seeing measured by revenue and customer growth. We’ve seen continued top line growth throughout each quarter this year. And we’re very pleased to report strong top line growth for Q3 2021 as well. In these remarks I’ll make comparisons were relevant to periods in 2020 and 2019. To address top line and bottom line trends versus periods pre pandemic in 2019 and versus the same period last year. Or Q3 2021m revenue came in at $137.4 million up 32% over last year and up 45% versus Q3 2019. Active customers increased to 2.1 million up 23% versus last year. This growth in top line was driven by a number of factors including a consistent replenishment cycle of our core prescription glasses offering, as well as impressive progress in our contact lens business, which still only represents 5% of our business overall.…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Oliver Chen at Cowen. Your line is open.

Oliver Chen

Analyst

Thank you. Congrats on your first public call. Neil and David we see telehealth as a as a big opportunity. What are some of the key aspects in your roadmap there and your competitive advantages as you as you think about employing technology and embracing this holistic vision care model? I would also love your thoughts on sustainability as it applies to your supply chain, you have a comprehensive Impact [indiscernible] ESG ideas, so we’d love thoughts around that as well. Thank you.

Dave Gilboa

Analyst

Great. Thanks, Oliver for the for joining, and for the questions. I’ll tackle the telehealth piece and then hand it to Neil to talk about sustainability. And we are extremely excited about the prospect of leveraging telehealth to make it easier, faster, cheaper for our customers and patients to renew prescriptions and increase access to eye doctors. And this quarter we introduced our virtual vision test, which is an app that you can download do a vision test from home in just a few minutes and an ophthalmologist who’s licensed in your state can write a prescription remotely. We’re seeing a very positive response from our customers with limited promotion so far and really feel like we’re in the in the top of the first inning. And if there’s been any silver lining from the pandemic, it’s that a lot of the barriers to telehealth adoption have been lowered both from a consumer adoption standpoint and from a regulatory standpoint. And so we’re excited to continue to invest in this area. And some of the near term items that we have are going to make it easier for our customers to use one vision test to renew both glasses and contacts prescriptions be able to scan their contacts box to make it even easier and faster for our customers and patients to renew their contacts prescriptions.

Neil Blumenthal

Analyst

With respect to ESG, you did mention our impact report. And I would encourage everyone to take a look if they haven’t already at Warby parker.com/impact Ash report. But since 2018, we’ve been publishing a thorough annual impact report based on the GRI framework and recently also started providing a SASB summary and we think that it’s critical to be transparent in our efforts to make the world a better place and for us to create lasting impact. And one of the ways it really impacts our business, besides making us feel good at night as leaders is that it helps us recruit and retain the absolute best talent. And we have talent across the US and Canada but we also have talent based where our frame factories are based that are constantly monitoring our factories with respect to social practices, but also ensuring that were actively measuring carbon emissions and working with our social innovation team to purchase the best carbon offsets available. We’ll continue to explore ways to reduce water use and reduce carbon emissions. One of the nice things about opening up our second optical lab facility in Las Vegas as we did in q3 is that the more control that we have. And the further that we vertically integrate, the more that we can do to reduce carbon emissions. And it’s something that we’re really excited about perhaps the thing that we’re best known for, is providing a pair of glasses for every pair that we sell. And in the early days of Warby Parker, we thought, you know, should we commit to a percent of revenue or percent of profits. And we thought that was important to focus on impact, right, the pair of glasses on someone’s face dramatically changes their ability to learn their ability to work. And as we saw with this Johns Hopkins University study, there is no better intervention in school than providing a pair of glasses, not extending the school day, not providing private tutoring, not providing computers in classrooms, giving a pair of glasses, effectively extends the school year by two to four months. And we’re super proud to have provided over 8 million pairs of glasses to people in need around the world and in the US. And with a billion people in need of glasses that don’t currently have access. We think that this is solvable, and we’re going to lead the charge in solving this large intractable problem. Thanks, Oliver.

Oliver Chen

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes on the line of Paul Lejuez at Citi. Your line is open.

Paul Lejuez

Analyst

Thanks, guys. I’m curious if you can share what your customer growth expectations are for 4 Q and if that’s something that you will be sharing with us in the future, and then just second, as you look to bring more doctors on staff and open stores with doctors in them? Where are you sourcing the majority from? Are they coming from schools or fresh out of schools? Are they coming from places other retailers that may have closed up shop? Or are they sort of independence that decide to come work for you and shut down their own practice? Thank you

Steve Miller

Analyst

Great. Thanks so much for the question, Paul. I’ll answer the first part of the question. And then we’ll kick it over to Neil to answer the second part in terms of providing guidance around active customers. We don’t project activities customers that we express externally to investors and analysts. As you think about our model, the way that we have talked about growth, it’s really a function of two factors. One is consistent growth in terms of average revenue per customer, which you’ve seen is increased to $242 or 14% year over year, and our active customer growth is up 23% year over year. The way that we have built our model is very consistent around how we think about customer economics and customer growth and growth in AOV. And what we will do is just draw your attention to the consistency that we’ve seen on a historical basis, and the sustainable growth around those metrics as opposed to giving you a fixed, active customer number for the next quarter.

Neil Blumenthal

Analyst

And with respect to our hiring and retention of optometrists. As we mentioned, we now have 99 stores with eye doctors that’s up from 49 stores in Q3 of 2019. We have found that we’ve become a preferred employer of optometrists. And that’s because of the work environment. Our stores are fun. Our team members are friendly and warm. Our stores and our eye exam suites are beautiful and new and use the latest technology we invest a lot to ensure that our optometrists are focused on clinical care rather than administrative tasks. And then even the location of our stores tend to be in close proximity to where our eye doctors live. And I forget what the detail was. But there was a study that came out not too long ago that showed that actually commuting time is the biggest indicator of happiness. But we tend to hire doctors that have several years experience often coming from other optical retailers or optometric practices. We do see some shifts happening in the industry, in that more and more graduates of optometry school are graduating with increased debt loads versus, you know, perhaps a decade or two ago, and that’s making it difficult for recent graduates to buy into private practices, for example, so more and more are looking to work at a stable employer like Warby Parker. We’ve also found that we’ve earned a lot of goodwill within the metric community because of our racial equity strategy. Last year, we laid out a plan to increase black representation in the field of optometry less than 3% of optometrist in America are black and we want to change that. Were working with other groups to increase awareness about the field of optometry and sponsor career fairs at historically black colleges and universities and have created scholarships for black students at the New England College of Optometry. Thanks again for your question.

Paul Lejuez

Analyst

Thanks, Tom. Good luck.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Brooke Roach at Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Brooke Roach

Analyst

Good morning. And thank you so much for taking questions. Today’s call really highlighted the momentum that you have across the business. And in particular, in some of those newer emerging product categories, such as contact lenses, progressives and sunglasses, I was hoping you could provide a little bit more detail about how you expect each of those categories to trend, maybe through the remainder of 2021 and 2022. And then the puts and takes on the margin impact that you’re anticipating as a result of those changes. Thank you.

Steve Miller

Analyst

Sure, thanks for the thoughtful questions, Brooke will talk a little bit about product mix. And our three core categories of products are eyeglasses, contact lenses and eye exams were predominantly a glasses only business today. And as you heard in the remarks, we’ve made some remarkable strides as it relates to increases in our contact lens business. As it relates to progressives, what we do know is that we continue to be highly underpinned penetrated versus the rest of our optical peers. Progressives make up approximately 45% of all prescription eyeglasses sold in the US today. And that still just 20% of our business, eye exams also a minority of our business today make up less than 3% of our business and almost 10%to 15% of the typical optical retailer sales. So we actually view our growth drivers around those three product lines for next year as tremendous particularly when we talk about the attach rate of turning a customer from a glasses only customer into a holistic vision care customer that is purchasing a pair of glasses, contact lenses and an eye exam, we found that the value of those customers after a year from initial purchase are over two times more valuable than that of a glasses only customer. So we will continue to focus on evolving into a holistic vision care company that really relies upon growing each of those three product lines. And what we do here is make sure that folks understand the amount of whitespace that is ahead of us and the starting point for us versus the remainder of the industry. We do anticipate growth in eyeglasses, contact lenses and exams, we do not provide guidance around product mix for those three categories. As it relates to gross margin. As a reminder,…

Brooke Roach

Analyst

Thank you. I’ll pass it on.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Mark Mahaney at Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Mark Mahaney

Analyst

Okay, thanks. Two s. I think he’d point that you hadn’t seen some of the employee shortage issues or employee wage inflation issues of other companies, perhaps because of the string theory, frankie, just double click on that a little bit. This is a not unprecedented, but it’s a pretty, pretty glaring market in terms of wage inflation kind of across the board. So just spend a little bit more time on and how you’re able to avoid some of those challenges. And then, Steve, could you talk a little bit more about the gross margin outlook? You know, you’re right in the middle of this kind of long term gross margin range, you talked about a bunch of puts in takes, and I guess, I would think about the mix shift of your products would make you sort of rise above that gross margin range. So I guess talk to the negative like what are the factors that would actually cause your gross margins to you over the next several years to actually go below that range? Like, hypothetically, what would cause that? Thanks a lot.

Neil Blumenthal

Analyst

Sure, thanks for your question with respect to our team and our stores and in our optical lab. You know, we have not seen shortages from a hiring or retention standpoint. Similarly, we haven’t seen major wage pressures. Now that may be due to the fact of where we started. And the fact that it’s important to us to a fair and appropriate wages to all team members at Warby Parker and to create a culture where people can learn and grow and thrive. Where we’ve seen labor shortages. It’s not at Warby Parker, but at times at the stores adjacent to us, that sometimes make traffic to centers for example, a little less predictable. And it’s, you know, one of the reasons why we pulled back marketing a bit in Q3 is just with the increase in COVID. Right, there was less predictability and more uncertainty. And we continue to see some uncertainty and we continue to see a little less predictability in traffic patterns to our stores, particularly urban stores that are reliant on office workers or tourism for example, as those patterns have not returned to the same level of consistency as we saw pre pandemic. That being said, our urban stores continue to perform well and continue to improve versus, you know, last year and sort of the in the depths of the pandemic. But we don’t foresee any labor shortages, or wage challenges going on of our stores.

Steve Miller

Analyst

And Mark on your second point as it relates to gross margins. So Q3, we were close to the middle of the annual range that we’ve guided toward. As a reminder, the annual long term guidance that we’ve provided around gross margin is to be in the range of 58% to 60%. On an annual basis, not on a quarterly basis, we know that there will be some fluctuations on a quarterly basis, particularly given how certain product lines perform. And we’ve certainly seen this quarter, we’ve seen this in previous quarters. But if you look at the consistency in our gross margin line, it’s really been within that 58% to 60% zone. In terms of talking about some of the questions you asked about the risk to gross margin, I would say one of the risks is really just around product mix. So our three core products have different gross margin profiles, glasses, contacts, and eye exams. And so hypothetically, we could see something similar to what we saw this quarter, where a product line really takes off much faster than anticipated and becomes a larger mix of our overall product mix, i.e. contact lenses as a percentage of eyewear, eyeglasses, contacts and eye exams that we sell. So that is certainly one factor. Another factor would really be on the cost side. So we INSOURCE and outsource optical lab services. And we built one optical lab, we’ve now built another. And we feel that having our own vertically integrated optical lab infrastructure really helps mitigate some of the external pressures that we might feel. In addition to that we work with a network of third party labs throughout the US. And we have long term contracts that are very defined and include pricing really at the product level.…

Neil Blumenthal

Analyst

Mark, this is Neil again. You know, it just dawned on me another reason why I believe we’re not facing the same ledger labor shortages as other retailers. And that’s sort of how we’ve managed the pandemic mech and putting the health and safety of our team members ahead. One of the first things that we did, was engaged with epidemiologists and infectious disease experts and hiring folks that had been on the lighthouse COVID task force, for example, to advise us on best practices. And when we’re making hires today, and Dave and I are still part of the interview process for every store manager that we hire, because we know that those stores are so critical to our long term success. It’s important to create the proper culture around performance, that when we’re speaking to the store managers that were hiring, you know, they’re excited to come to Warby Parker, because they had a really difficult last 18 months and did not necessarily feel as supported by their corporate teams as they would have expected and they’ve heard at Warby Parker, that the field teams get the support that they need to be successful.

Mark Mahaney

Analyst

Thank you, Neil. Thank you, Steve.

Neil Blumenthal

Analyst

Thank you, Mark.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Mark Altschwager from Baird. Your line is open.

Sarah Goldberg

Analyst

Good morning. This is Sarah Goldberg on for Mark, thanks for taking your question and congrats on your first quarter. I wanted to dig in a little bit further on the margin guides for the full year. Q3 came in nicely ahead of your guide from late September four to 5%. So you’re holding the full year guide, which implies a little bit more cost pressure in Q4 than we had previously anticipated. Can you speak to some of the puts and takes here and maybe how they breaks down between gross margin and SG&A. Thanks.

Steve Miller

Analyst

Yeah, for sure, for sure. So on an annual basis, we’ll just start with gross margin, we’re still maintaining our long term guidance for the full year of being in the 58% to 60%. Zone. As it relates to some of the other puts and takes it’s worth spending a little bit of time talking about some of the seasonal patterns we see in buying toward the end of the year. And what we experience is some increased demand during the holiday season and increased demand with the expiration of flex spend. And there are two expirations of flex fan, there’s sort of the big one, which is December 31. And there’s another one, March 15 of the following year. And what we do to prepare for this demand is we make certain investments ahead of the curve, which I’ll talk about in a moment. But the demand that we drive the latter two weeks of December the last week, in December, in particular, we generate revenue from those orders into January. So there is a revenue deferral aspect where the investments we’re making to staff up our retail stores, staff up our optical lab, expedite orders to customers, so that they get them in time for the holiday staff up our customer experience team to deal with questions on the phone as relates to flex, spend, and invest in marketing. A lot of those investments really bear fruit in January and into Q1. And so just wanted to call that out. We’ve typically seen moderately less profit in Q4 of every single year since inception than we do in the other quarters. It certainly was true last year, it was true the year before. And we’re protect projecting consistency as it relates to that number. Also, as we put together our financial model, as a general rule, given that there is still some level of uncertainty in the areas as it relates to the pandemic, we do want to be prudent and conservative where appropriate and projecting our business and our costs. So we feel very confident simply maintaining the adjusted EBITDA margin target that we gave. And as we think about where that puts us as a starting point for next year, reiterating the incremental one to two points of adjusted EBITDA margin that we’ll plan to add on top of that. So I hope that helps provide some additional colors to how we’re thinking about the quarter and adjusted EBITDA in particular.

Sarah Goldberg

Analyst

Yeah, thanks for all the detail.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Dana Telsey from Telsey Advisory Group. Your line is open.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Good morning, and congratulations on the nice first quarter out of the box. If you think about the lab opportunity, obviously now opening the second lab in Las Vegas, what’s the center product do you see targeted to come from the labs? Are there higher margins or returns on products from the labs? I mean, you know, higher margin returns from those, and what percent of capacity can you produce in the profit implications from it? Thank you.

Dave Gilboa

Analyst

Thanks, Dana. And we’re incredibly excited to have opened our second lab in Las Vegas. We’ve seen really meaningful benefits of operating our lab influence over the last few years. And we do see that classes that are produced in our own labs have faster turnaround times higher quality, higher net promoter scores, and higher margins. And so we are excited to send more of a higher percentage of our orders through our own optical labs over time. Today, we’re already producing more than half of the glasses that we shipped out to customers through our own labs, and we see substantial opportunity to increase that, that percentage, and both scale our operations at floats Berg in addition to our Las Vegas facility, which is already well ahead of schedule on producing over 1000 pairs of glasses per day.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Thank you. Just a follow up on the doctors in your stores. The attachment rate would you see from those sales? As you add more doctors? Do you see the attachment rate on sales being higher for multiple purchases or anything in terms of attracting those optical customers who go to existing doctors to your stores?

Steve Miller

Analyst

So the optical attach rate in the industry is quite high we see that roughly 70% of prescription eyewear is purchased at the same place where the individual got the eye exam as you think about our model. We employ doctors directly we also have an independent model where We can’t employ directly yet, where we’ll leave some incremental space next door as part of our storage, we’ll call it 250 square feet. And that eye doctor is an independent practitioner. So for eye exams from those independent practitioners, we don’t have visibility into the Attach rate. We do hope that the client or customer after getting that exam, walks over to Warby and gets a pair of glasses for the eye doctors that we do employ where we can employ them, we do have visibility into that data, and I can indicate that our attach rate is at or above the industry benchmark that I just mentioned.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Thank you.

Dave Gilboa

Analyst

Well, I think that was the last question. So thank you all for the great questions today. And thank you to everyone who joined us for our first earnings call. We’re incredibly excited for the quarters and years to come. If you have any additional questions or follow ups, please feel free to reach out to Tina or our Investor Relations inbox at investors at Warby Parker, and we look forward to seeing you all again soon.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for joining You may now disconnect your lines.