David R. Demers
Analyst · Jefferies & Co
Thanks, Darren, and good afternoon, everyone. As you've seen, 2012 has bumped into a sudden slowdown in deliveries, but we believe this is just a lumpiness phenomenon, compounded by some current economic uncertainty, of course. Order activity remains high, and we see momentum building for both current and new products for 2013. We now expect 2012 to end up at about 30% revenue growth over 2011, which is lower than we had forecasted at the start of year but consistent with our long-term growth over the past 8 years. So despite the surprise break late in September, we're satisfied with the significant progress in our business plan this year. As usual, I'll relinquish the floor shortly to let Bill take you through the financial statements, but I wanted to elaborate a bit on how we see our current position as we head into 2013. 2012, I think in retrospect, we'll see it as a major turning point in our business. I believe that it starts a major new phase in our development after we spent the last decade doing market creation work and technology proof of concept work. But I think it's clear we've now established that natural gas can work in a broad array of transport applications, that it can be delivered economically to customers all over the world and that we've developed a business model that allows our industry to launch successfully new products in a capital-efficient and risk-reduced approach that makes money for everyone in the value chain. This year, we also saw a broad consensus for the first time that natural gas will take material market share in every global transportation market within the next 5 years. Obviously, I don't have time to go through these studies today, but consensus suggests that we'll see, for example, 7% to 15% share of the North American trucking industry running on natural gas in 2017. Some markets will see penetration rates even beyond the high end of this range. Whether the numbers emerge at the low end or the high end, I think, is a little irrelevant. It's an enormous change from our current position and it's a spectacular business opportunity for our industry and for Westport. So I think we can look at the last few years as classic technology chasm-crossing activity. The early adopters are now behind us and the main event is about to start. I think Westport has established a unique market position. We're the only company in the space with market-leading technologies and products in every major geography and in every major segment. Now I know people sometimes find our story and our business plan complicated, and some complain that we're unique and impossible to position and compare, which I suppose I can accept as a compliment. But really, we have to understand this is never going to be simple. This is an epochal change. Shifting the world from one major energy source, oil, to a new and very different one, natural gas, requires coordination and cooperation on a tremendous global scale. And we're doing it in place, as it were, without tearing everything up and starting over. In fact, we're doing it in a way where both systems will coexist for decades. But forget for now about how unlikely and how challenging this idea might have been. It is happening. So to try and clarify how we see it, I'm going to divide the work ahead of us into 5 major links in the value chain. Well first off, of course, we -- and I'm speaking here in the industry sense, not just Westport. The industry needs to solve the technology challenges of using gaseous fuels on vehicles. And then we need to engineer and manufacture specific unique vehicle components, such as fuel injectors, fuel pumps, fuel tanks, all that stuff that's required for a natural gas vehicle to work. Now this work has been going on for decades, it's true, and there are lots of people who make components for this system. But now that the market is coming, the major market is coming, I think winners will emerge who can deliver on those traditional product metrics like price and quality and performance and scalability and service. Naturally, Westport is active in that space. We build some things, we have other things that are built to our design by other people as appropriate. We've been selectively acquiring and integrating some component suppliers with key capabilities into our portfolio. At this point, we believe we have the best portfolio of natural gas components and the best platform for delivery in the industry, and we're pushing hard to widen our lead. Now a second step, of course, is to design and test engines, the device that turns natural gas into something that we can do and use for work. And we also need to think about total vehicle systems, recognizing that moving to a new fuel, whether it's pressurized CNG or cryogenic LNG, is a very, very big deal. Of course, these engines and systems rely on the components built for us by the first step in the value chain. But the skills and capabilities required to design and build mass produced vehicles are rare, and they're locked up in just a few dozen OEM companies around the world. Westport developed unique partnership models with a surprising number of these global OEMs. At this point, we believe that every remaining OEM must organize their own natural gas product line and strategy within a very short time or face a real market share cliff. Product lead times are long and even small movements in market share could be catastrophic in this world. Natural gas is going to be 10% of the market in 5 years, and if you haven't started work today, you're probably too late. 2012 saw us establish whole new markets, such as locomotives and mining trucks with Caterpillar and heavy-duty pickup trucks with Ford. Obviously, there are big synergies between our component business and our OEM Systems business. Third, I hope it's clear that no vehicles on a new fuel can operate without fuel stations, fuel delivery and a source of fuel. And whether that's natural gas from traditional oil and gas development or unconventional gas, such as coal bed, methane or shale gas or even biogas, we have to get this organized and it has to be coordinated. Again, Westport is active here with a long list of partners around the world, and specific services such as JumpStart to help the early markets get some momentum. I'm going to come back at this one in a minute because we've seen spectacular growth on this issue this year. Fourth comes the customer and the need to introduce this new energy concept and then ensure the customer can fully exploit the economic potential of the shift to gas. From the customer view, our products, which are vehicles that embody our technology, our components and our systems, look and feel a lot like conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles. But fleet owners, drivers and mechanics need to be trained in the differences in order to really understand the potential for dramatic operating improvements. This isn't just fuel cost savings, it's the potential for reduced price volatility, the ability to lock in long-term prices for fuel, first mover competitive advantages, environmental benefits and so on. So yes, Westport's jumped into this stage, and we help our OEMs and fuel partners, and with our teach-the-teachers approach, we can reach a very broad audience with a small but critical investment. In return, we're getting invaluable feedback into new product opportunities and priorities that we can feed back up the chain. This is a key value proposition for our OEM partners. And finally, we have the systemic benefits to whole industries, for example, the benefit of lowering, fundamentally, shipping costs or less cost volatility, and to society itself, whether that's energy policy, energy development, energy security, environmental impact. Now we don't lobby per se and we don't think that government subsidies to this industry would form a healthy long-term foundation. But the local economic development, energy, security and environment issues are important, and we found it very helpful to step into this area too. So although this plan sounds complicated and perhaps too ambitious, the fact we believe our work in each area makes the whole plan stronger than the sum of the parts. And as we move into this next phase, the key milestones we're working towards, I think, are quite straightforward, and you should be able to see our progress quite clearly. First, we want to significantly improve our OEM product coverage in each market segment. We want customers to have as much choice of natural gas vehicles as they do with conventional diesel and gasoline. Second, we want to see broad infrastructure build-out in every geographic market. And we want this coordinated with local customer adoption, training and support so that we can encourage adoption on a significant scale. And third, the third theme I'd say, which runs throughout these businesses is we need continued, relentless focus on higher product performance, lower costs, better reliability and more robust supply chains. And we do this so that we can maintain our competitive lead and force any followers to work hard to keep up. Now as you know and as I've said, our strategy at Westport has been to develop partnerships, to work with a broad cross-section of the automotive industry to create natural gas versions of their diesel and gasoline products. And so I can note that, just in our Mid-Range and Heavy-Duty Truck business in North America alone, we've gone from just one product with one partner in 2008, to 9 major truck models this year in 2012, and we're looking to have 16 launched in 2013 with our new engine from the joint venture. Momentum is building nicely for several new products over the next few years. And with more product offerings, we'll make it easier for customers to move our way. Now within that broad theme, we've also been working hard to reduce the price of the products. And to do that, we need to focus on dramatic improvements in the critical supply chain components on both cost and reliability, while working with our OEM partners to improve production and sales efficiencies. Now we're making lots of progress on this front. I think Bill will cover this in a little more detail too. But if you can just pull out the numbers in the financial statements on our Heavy-Duty 15 business this year, you can see the effect. Our average selling price is down 22% over the past 12 months, and that -- it's simple, we're reducing the price for the system. But if you compare gross margin percents and do a little arithmetic, you can see that our costs must be down 37% year-over-year for us to achieve this. And that's true. So we're reducing costs and we're passing that on to the customer. Another data point on this issue would be the recent price reduction with our Ford F-250 and F-350 products, which reflect some cost reductions just since the product launched in June. Now we're determined to push this process continuously over the next few years until we reach an overwhelmingly attractive value proposition for natural gas in every market. Generally, the industry projections that I referred to earlier look at likely penetration in the 10% to 15% range, for example, within 5 years. Those numbers are assuming a 2 to 3-year payback period. The fact is that we could see much higher penetration rates if the price is right. And of course, we plan to take things there. All that said, as we talked about earlier, we can't put vehicles on the road unless people know how and where to refuel. But 2012 will also be a transition year for that. It's a phase change really in this obstacle to performance. We still aren't where we need to be, but the situation gets dramatically better next year. And by 2015, we think this will no longer be seen as a serious challenge anywhere in the world. Now even then, we won't be finished with infrastructure, but any customer who wants fuel should be able to organize it by then. On the LNG infrastructure development front in particular, we continue to see positive momentum in North America from existing players, as well as interesting new entrants, such as ENN out of China. ENN purchased some existing locations in Utah and are now building out stations and establishing a corridor in the Rockies under the BLU banner. Here in BC, the Fortis BC program, providing funding for fleets and stations using LNG, is progressing, although a little bit slower than their initial plans. We expect to see trucks shipped for that program starting early next year. As we heard in June, Shell and TravelCenters of America have signed an MOU to build out 100 stations in the U.S. Now we look forward to finalizing that agreement so that they can move forward with actual construction. And of course our friends at Clean Energy continue to build out the American natural gas highway. Now last week, Clean announced that they have completed construction on more LNG stations in the last 3 months than they had in the previous year. We're glad to see the acceleration of builds, and we're pleased that Clean is taking the approach of building out the required stations to serve these long-haul corridors in advance of everyone else. Now once a station's been build, you need about 20 trucks to make it viable to commission the station and fill the storage tank and open for business. So we're working alongside Clean to find those anchor customers that will allow a completed station to become an open one. A good example from this quarter has been in Phoenix. We worked together to bring Kenan Advantage Group in as we anchor customer in Phoenix, with 25 Westport HD-powered LNG trucks to open that station. For those of you that don't know them, Kenan is the largest tank truck transporter in North America. So you can imagine our plan is to see them buy more trucks in a variety of locations. And now that station in Phoenix is open and anchored with Kenan, it will allow smaller fleets the opportunity to join in and start converting to LNG as well. Before we leave infrastructure, I'd like to say a few words about the JumpStart program that we began this year where we lease portable fuel stations to customers, either in remote sites or in advance of a permanent station. Now the program's gone very well, and it's clearly going faster than we expected as we're seeing demand far outstrip our supply. Our initial 5 stations have all been leased out. The next tranche of 4 units that are on order have already been all been spoken for in advance of their arrival. So we're accelerating this program and we've ordered additional units, which will expand our capacity to meet the demand for these -- this early start as people are building out infrastructure. We expect that in 2013, we'll see some current JumpStart customers get access to newly built permanent stations, and then we can redeploy those existing units. So I hope you can see why we're calling this a phase change. This is really a completely different world for us. Not that we've proven out the capability of this capital-light partnering model, and now that we're seeing market acceptance of our products and product plans in each segment, we can shift our focus to more traditional management issues: growth, customer support and profits. We believe we've developed a very broad platform for global growth and profitable returns for our shareholders for years to come. We're in a very fortunate and exciting position. The opportunity is hear and now. We've got a unique position. And over the next few years, we'll begin to see the payoff for our long investment, and we believe reward your patience. Thanks very much. Over to Bill.