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WPP plc (WPP)

Q4 2013 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 11, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. And welcome to the Wausau Paper 2013 Fourth Quarter and Yearend Results Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, there will be an opportunity for questions. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I’d now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Perry Grueber, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Perry Grueber

Management

Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I’m pleased to be here today with Hank Newell, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Sherri Lemmer, our Chief Financial Officer. After our prepared remarks we look forward to answering your questions. This call is being webcast and slides are provided to summarize key elements of our presentation. Your webcast viewer should allow you to download these slides and yesterday’s earnings release, both of which are also available from the Investors section of our website at wausaupaper.com. Statements made during this presentation, other than those that refer to past results, are forward-looking statements made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Securities Reform Act of 1995. Such statements, including those concerning expected performance, future earnings or dividends, involve risks and uncertainties that may cause results to differ materially from the expectations set forth during this discussion. Among other things, these risks and uncertainties include the risks and assumptions described in Item 1A and Item 7 of the company’s Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2012. The company assumes no obligation to update or supplement forward-looking statements that become untrue because of subsequent events. Additionally, our presentation refers to certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these measures to GAAP is provided in the appendix of this presentation. I will now turn the call over to Hank Newell, our President and Chief Executive Officer. Hank?

Henry C. Newell

Management

Thank you Perry. Good morning. 2013 was a year of profound change and progress for Wausau Paper. We completed the announced strategic repositioning of our company and today we are a company 100% focused on Tissue. We continue to ramp up our new towel and tissue machine and converting capabilities and made significant progress during the fourth quarter, and that will continue – that will contribute to continued improvement in 2014. During the second half of 2013 we introduced 20 new 100% recycled premium Green Seal products under our DublNature brands in the away-from-home market. We delivered strong full-year growth that was two to three times the market, and in the second half following our successful launch of DublNature grew at four to five times the market. And we delivered expanding EBITDA and EBITDA margins in each quarter since the major outrage in the first quarter of 2013 which convert our new towel and tissue machine to the ATMOS technology. Following the successful divestiture of our paper business in June of last year, we executed a major realignment and reduction in overall salaried staffing to right-size the organization for our new scale, resulting in an approximately 20% reduction. Following the divestiture we also made rapid progress against our targeted restructuring cost reduction of $13 million, achieving a $9 million run rate at year-end with the balance expected by mid-year 2014. Last year, following the completion of the largest capital expansion in our company history, we announced the capital allocation policy that commits to returning approximately 50% of free cash flow to our shareholders. And in 2013, our share price was up approximately 46%. Focusing in on the fourth quarter, we had record fourth quarter sales and all-time record case volume that was 7.4% of our fourth quarter 2012 and exceeded…

Sherri L. Lemmer

Management

Thank you Hank. Good morning. In the fourth quarter of 2013 as Hank mentioned, we exceeded our growth target of 6%, the machine was 7.4% quarter-over-quarter case volume growth. The 4,393,000 cases of towel and tissue products shipped in the fourth quarter of 2013 represents a record over any quarter in the company’s history. Our strategic mix improved to 49.2% from the mix in the third quarter of 48.4% with 5.2% case volume growth in our Strategic product categories. For the second half of 2013, following the launch of our DublNature product portfolio, our overall growth was 7.4%, compared to 1.3% in the first half of the year. With Strategic product categories up 6.2% following the first half decline of 1.2%. For the full year we achieved our volume growth target of 4% to 5%, finishing with year-over-year case growth of 4.4%. In net sales, we achieved our fourth quarter record of $91.1 million representing an increase of 4.8% over the prior year’s fourth quarter of $87 million. 2013 second half net sales improved 5.2% over the same period in 2012 and for the full year net sales was $348.6 million, compared to $344.2 million in 2012. Compared to the third quarter of 2013, the combination of improved strategic mix and higher than expected growth favorably impacted our financial performance by approximately $800,000 in the fourth quarter. However, competitive pricing and our Support product categories combined with the additional customer earned rebates due to higher than forecasted sales volume and therefore resulting in an unfavorable yearend adjustment negatively impacted the quarter-over-quarter comparison by about $1.4 million. Similar to the impact of customer earned rebates, the year-to-date adjustment on volume-related sales incentives due to higher growth and consequently achievement of performance thresholds unfavorably impacted fourth quarter 2013 results by approximately $700,000.…

Henry C. Newell

Management

Thank you Sherri. 2014 is about delivering a step change in financial performance with 2013 EBITDA of $37 million going to $60 million to $70 million in 2014. Perhaps most important and what will define success in 2014 for Wausau Paper, will be achieving a performance level on the fourth quarter of EBITDA in the $20 million to $24 million range. Our focus will be on delivering volume growth of 6% at targeted margins with growth in our Strategic product categories the driver. We will continue to ramp-up our operations platform across both our papermaking and converting assets and are trending nicely based on fourth quarter performance levels. As we move through 2014, the company will demonstrate increasing free cash flow growth particularly as we move into the second half of the year. And the Company is committed to increasing the return of cash to our shareholders as we deliver growth. Our new ATMOS machine is a flexible towel and tissue asset, producing high-quality conventional and premium base sheets. We’re achieving the expected cost structure and where we expected to be on the startup curve. There is a strong interdependence between growth and our premium products and realizing the full benefit of our investment in the new paper machine, that we expect to be the key element of improvement in 2014. Our converting operations continued to move up the learning curve, we have introduced tremendous change in our converting operations where we are producing new products with new base sheets, our new equipment and with many new people, we are progressing rapidly. Our operations are delivering excellent quality products, which is reflected in the market acceptance of our DublNature brands and this has extended into our EcoSoft brand. The trials of Artisan had made good progress and in fact we…

Perry Grueber

Management

Thank you Hank and Sherri. That concludes the formal comment portion of today’s call. Michelle, will you pool for any questions please?

Operator

Operator

Certainly. (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Mike Roxland of Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Mike Roxland

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Good morning. Thanks very much for taking my questions. If I recall correctly, in the last call you mentioned that the company was a little too aggressive rolling out new products resulting in oversaturation of channel inventories. What has occurred since then and have inventories come back down? That’s the first question. And has the company been a little more disciplined in respect to rolling out new products given what occurred in the last quarter?

Henry C. Newell

Management

So Mike I think, first if I recollect from that conversation we communicated that, we were not oversaturated in the market at that point in time about the last call. As we look at how volume has transpired it during the both the third and fourth quarters, our volume has been above the expectations. In the fourth quarter we actually saw a strategic product growth of a little over 5%. So I think the market acceptance from our products has been good, we I think the supply chain is pretty balanced, we’ve continued to see strong orders as we moved through January and actually into February. So I think any of that transition is behind us at this point.

Mike Roxland

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Got you, thank you for that. And as an attempt to minimize your production of the Support products given the additional costs associated with running them and now also given the pricing pressure you’re facing?

Henry C. Newell

Management

So as you think about our business and even as it relates to our sales rebates and incentives those are all really oriented towards our Strategic product category growth. And as we talked a little bit about at the end of the third quarter, as we are being successful in growing DublNature and securing new DublNature business we are in fact gaining additional Support product growth and that contributes our margin. I think the other thing to think about is that within our Support product categories now we think about both towel and tissue, over two-thirds of our franchise’s towel where we are seeing the actual competitive intensity is really in the tissue element of our support product categories. So, when we are Support category growth that’s greatly for us and it’s a good thing.

Mike Roxland

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Does the Support category has shown pricing pressure. One, where is the pricing pressure is on the towel side we have two types of franchisers locators are on the tissue side, and if it’s on both why not trying to minimize your exposure there given the increasing competitiveness in that particular space?

Henry C. Newell

Management

So our focus is in driver of successors is coming here will be continued demonstration of growth in our Strategic product categories. We are seeing competitive pressures in the tissue element that’s Support product categories is still generates an attractive recon for us so there is no base as to not continue to take that volume. Now, at fourth quarter we did see incentive or rebate levels or we hit thresholds that were really related full year volume but the fundamental growth and performance of the business was solid.

Mike Roxland

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Got you and two last questions and I’ll turn it over. Can you just talk to some of the operational issues that you experienced at Harrodsburg and have those being corrected by now?

Henry C. Newell

Management

So I think what’s interesting about the fourth quarter a little bit from an operational standpoint is we were essentially right on forecast, so as we looked at that where we thought we would perform in the fourth quarter ultimately we were right in the range of what we expected. Specifically, as it relates to the tissue machine, the need, we actually did this we took the Yankee grind and the need for Yankee grind in light of the new tissue machine is really is not uncommon. We had a profiling machine that’s really a complex equation that particularly with new technology, take some learnings. You combine that with the rigorous startup in our product development activities trying to artifice the new camera free really creates the conditions where you can create some surface damage on your Yankee. The outage corrected this and coming out of the outage we actually resulted in significantly improved production in November both from the concepts of the quality of the role, the convertibility of that role and the speed of machine. And I think ultimately are ops team made a tremendous call in making a choice to take this machine down in October. And as we move into the new and for the balance of the quarter we actually recovered the costs of that outage and as we move into this year they’re in a much better position in terms of the product quality and machine performance for 2014. So I think it’s the performance of the machine was very much in the normal range that we would expect. We made a choice, I think, that the important thing of ours is $0.5 million negative impact in the fourth quarter, because we took that outage that just along the occurrence from moving into the first quarter here.

Mike Roxland

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Got you. And then the last question, I will turn it over. You are targeting $0.01, $0.03 per share that was your outlook vis–à–vis still over the 3Q call or for 4Q. How we came in the breakeven, what was really the primary cost for that miss versus your expectations? Was it higher energy costs, was this competitiveness in terms of the Support products which lowered pricing? What was the key driver of this variation?

Henry C. Newell

Management

So there is two elements that we’re not in our guidance. One is, the much higher overall volume levels we were successful in achieving in the fourth quarter which resulted in higher levels of rebates and incentives, and over and those thresholds are triggered they go back to case one. And the other is, proxy-related advisory services. That’s just were not in our forecast at the levels that we ultimately got. We had backed those two elements we were solidly in our guidance range.

Mike Roxland

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Got it. Good look in 2014.

Henry C. Newell

Management

Thanks Mike.

Sherri L. Lemmer

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Okay, thank you. (Operator Instructions) And we have a question from the line of Mark Wilde of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Mark Wilde

Analyst · Mark Wilde of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Good morning Hank, good morning Sherri.

Henry C. Newell

Management

Mark.

Sherri L. Lemmer

Management

Hi.

Mark Wilde

Analyst · Mark Wilde of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

First question I had Sherri, I wondered what does the guidance for the coming year assume in terms of both wastepaper costs and then this pricing weakness that you talked about in the Support categories that had continued into the first quarter? What are you assuming is going to become that pricing weakness as we move through the year?

Sherri L. Lemmer

Management

Well I think again we have confidence that our fourth quarter guidance with the risk to our margin assumptions that we have pretty balanced. As we consider our full-year number, the degree of uncertainty that we have in wastepaper volatility and that Support product pricing Mark that you mentioned come [ph] up with the potential pressure for energy costs and proxy and advisory costs really resulted in that range of, a broader range of those full year outcomes. So, again as we go through the year determining the timing of when that wastepaper is going to occur, I think we have a captured in what we have provided for Q4, but that moderately increasing as we move through the year. But it’s really we feel comfortable with where we have Q4 based on that expectation.

Mark Wilde

Analyst · Mark Wilde of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

You mean Q1?

Sherri L. Lemmer

Management

So our guidance for our Q4 has really.

Mark Wilde

Analyst · Mark Wilde of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Q4 yes, yes, yes. Okay. But just to be clear, so you’re expecting some what would you say gradual ratcheting up in wastepapers we move through the year?

Sherri L. Lemmer

Management

Yes I would say that. As we expect to see wastepaper continuing to pick up as we move through the year and we’ve captured that in our full year and our Q4 guidance.

Mark Wilde

Analyst · Mark Wilde of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Okay. And is this competitive pricing in the Support categories was just to remain as intense as it is right now? Would that be captured in your guidance as well?

Sherri L. Lemmer

Management

Yes.

Mark Wilde

Analyst · Mark Wilde of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Okay.

Henry C. Newell

Management

Well Mark, just one thing to think about, I think, if wastepaper prices begin to increase we would expect that that would have a moderating impact on the competitive intensity we are seeing in the Support categories. And if you think about and we would expect to see our average pricing improving more rapidly and regardless of environment we’re expecting to see our average pricing increase and that moderately increasing wastepaper environment kind of offsetting competitive intensity would be the path that would lead us to the higher end of our guidance range.

Mark Wilde

Analyst · Mark Wilde of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Yes, okay. And I think that’s sensible. And now just kind of the question that Mike was asking I guess what kind of struck me was this, 10%ish volume growth in the Support category first of all just seems likely really, really outsized growth in the tissue business like and far better than, far larger than I’ve ever heard you guys report in the 20 years of covering you and so I’m trying to understand that why did that volume go up so sharply, were people really loading up the channel or what was going on there? And then I just wonder also in the pace of you’re doing about pricing weakness in that category whether you guys really contributed to that?

Henry C. Newell

Management

So I think, first the dynamic we talked about in terms of our growth targets, our growth targets have always been very focused on these Strategic products of our portfolio. And, historically and we talked about those before and we actually would have assumed that we would see some cannibalization of our Support products. What we’ve seen instead of that is in the second half strong Strategic product growth and as customers are making their choice to move their premium product portfolios to us, they’re also moving their Support categories to us. So the level of growth in our Support categories has been outsized relative to our expectations. I don’t think, I think the factors that are contributing to the competitive intensity specifically in the tissue element of Support, is the fact that we have waste, low wastepaper costs and excess tissue capacity. We are not seeing it in our towel categories.

Sherri L. Lemmer

Management

And I think the one thing I would add Mark is that, remember we did a lot of repositioning efforts in 2012 and given the nature of what we’ve accomplished and what we’ve introduced and then the momentum of that business, it’s really an area that before that cost repositioning in 2012 we simply couldn’t compete. So we’ve been able to structure have a better cost, underlying cost structure that gives us the ability to continue to advance along the path of growth.

Mark Wilde

Analyst · Mark Wilde of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Okay and then I guess I was just because I went through the release last night, I was surprised that the real big volume gains were in the Support categories rather than the Strategic categories that got me a bit by a surprise. And then finally I wanted Hank, just one of the things that does strike me is that it seems like the improvement that you’re assuming for 2014, just so heavily weighted to the backend of the calendar, and I wondered if you just comment on that I mean those kind of the company has had a long history of missing forecast targets and I just, I wonder what kind of setting ourselves up for that because you’re really hanging in a heck of a lot on that last quarter to the year?

Henry C. Newell

Management

Well I think as you look at our historical profile on tissue the third quarter is in a historical model it would have always been the strongest quarter of the year and fourth quarter we’ve been very solid. So, just inherently in our business the second half of the year is a much stronger level of performance in the first half. Now you couple that with the fact that we are improving on a trajectory now so we’re, we’ve got significant operational improvement that you’re beginning to see in the fourth quarter here that will carry through we’re seeing significant improvement in our Strategic mix what will carry through. You get a multiplying effect as you move through the year and it’s what gives us the level of confidence we have in our Q4 outlook.

Mark Wilde

Analyst · Mark Wilde of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Okay. And just finally, can you just remind us, approximately how much of the management team is kind of compensation or compensation of risk ratio is started to hitting those bogies at the end of the year?

Henry C. Newell

Management

So 80% of compensation is tied to performance.

Mark Wilde

Analyst · Mark Wilde of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

And in particular metrics?

Henry C. Newell

Management

Total shareholder return and return on capital are the biggest elements and cash incentive tied to delivering EPS.

Mark Wilde

Analyst · Mark Wilde of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Okay, I will turn it over.

Operator

Operator

Okay thank you. (Operator Instructions) One moment please. And there are no further questions in queue. Please continue.

Henry C. Newell

Management

Okay, thank you Michelle. We appreciate everyone taking part in today’s discussion. And your interest in Wausau Paper. Thank you very much.

Perry Grueber

Management

Thank you Michelle.

Operator

Operator

Okay, thank you. And ladies and gentlemen this conference will be available for a replay after 11 O’clock A.M. today through February 18th at midnight. You may access AT&T Executive Replay System at any time by dialing 1-800-475-6701 entering the access code 316-999, international participants dial 320-365-3844 and again that access is 316-999. And that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Executive Teleconference Service. You may now disconnect.