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Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Nov 4, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Silver Wheaton’s 2015 Third Quarter Results & Antamina Transaction Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded on Wednesday, August 12, at 11:00 A.M. Eastern Time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Patrick Drouin, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Patrick Drouin

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Good morning ladies and gentlemen and thank you for participating in today’s call. I’m joined today by Randy Smallwood, Silver Wheaton’s President and Chief Executive Officer; Gary Brown, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Haytham Hodaly, Senior Vice President, Corporate Development; and Curt Bernardi, Senior Vice President of Legal and Corporate Secretary. I would like to bring to your attention today that some of the commentary on today’s call may contain forward-looking statements. There can be no assurances that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. In addition to our financial results cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements, please refer to the section entitled Description of the Business Risk Factors in Silver Wheaton’s annual information form and the additional risk identified under Risks and Uncertainties in Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the period ended June 30, 2015, both available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and in Silver Wheaton’s Form 40-F and Form 6-K filed August 11, 2015, both on file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The annual information form and press release from last night set out the material assumptions and risk factors that could cause actual results to differ, including, among others to satisfaction of each party’s obligations in accordance with the terms of the Glencore Silver Purchase Agreement, fluctuations in the price of commodities, differences in the interpretation of applicable and application of tax laws and regulations from those taken by Silver Wheaton, the absence of control over mining operations from which Silver Wheaton purchases silver or gold and risks related to such mining operations. It should be noted that all figures referred to on today’s call are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. We will start today’s call discussing Q3 results, followed by a discussion on the Antamina transaction. Please note that there is a presentation available on our website that we will be referring to during the Antamina portion of the call. We did have some technical issues earlier with our website so you may have to refresh the screen since see the presentation. Now, I’d like to turn the call over to Randy Smallwood, our President and Chief Executive Officer.

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

Thank you, Patrick and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for dialing into our conference call to discuss the third quarter results, as well as our latest acquisition of silver stream on the world class Antamina mine. Gary and I will first discuss the highlights of our third record-setting quarter in a row, and then we’ll dive into Antamina. I’m very pleased to announce the Silver Wheaton achieved record production and sales volumes in the third quarter of 2015. We achieved record production for the third consecutive quarter producing 11 million silver equivalent ounces during Q3. We also made record sales volumes for the second consecutive quarter, and sales of over 10 million silver equivalent ounces. Our record production was driven by Salobo and Peñasquito along with the ramp up of production of Constancia. Our sales were driven by record volumes at San Dimas. With the production and sales from our existing mines, we are well on track to reaching our previous guidance of 43.5 million silver equivalent ounces for 2015, which is over 23% year-over-year production growth. However, with the addition of Antamina, we are now expecting production to reach 44.5 million silver equivalent ounces in 2015, which represents an increase of over 26% compared to 2014. Our sales volume increased 17% from the previous year to over ten million ounces for the quarter. Weak commodity price markets, however, once again affected our average realized sale price per silver equivalent ounce, which was 21% lower than Q3 of 2014. Lower commodity prices obviously impacted our net earnings, as Gary will discuss later. But despite these lower prices, we once again maintained a healthy cash-operating margin of over 70% and operating cash flows of nearly $100 million during the quarter. And while speaking of cash flows, our quarterly dividends…

Gary Brown

Analyst

Thank you, Randy, and good morning ladies and gentlemen. Prior to reviewing Silver Wheaton’s unaudited financial results for the three months ended September 30, 2015, I would like to remind everyone that all monetary figures discussed are denominated in U.S. dollars, unless otherwise noted. The company’s precious metal interests generated record attributable silver equivalent production of 11 million ounces in the third quarter of 2015, 24% higher than production from the comparable period of the prior year. Approximately 63% of this production related to silver with the remainder relating to gold. Silver equivalent sales volumes exceeded 10 million ounces in Q3 2015, representing a 17% increase from Q3 2014, and a new record for the company. As of September 30, 2015, approximately 6.3 million payable silver equivalent ounces had been produced by our partners, but not yet delivered to Silver Wheaton, a decrease of approximately 100,000 ounces from the balance at the end of the prior quarter. It is important to remember that we estimated normal level for ounces produced, but not delivered to equate to approximately two to three months worth of payable production. So this balance may grow over the remainder of 2015, as both Constancia and Salobo continue to ramp up production. Revenue for the third quarter of 2015 amounted to $153 million, representing an 8% decrease from the comparable period of the prior year with the 21% decreased in the average realized silver equivalent selling price, being partially offset by increased sales volumes. Earnings from operations for the third quarter of 2015 amounted to $61 million representing a 25% decrease relative to the third quarter of 2014 with operating margins decreasing by 9% to 40% in the third quarter of 2015 due to lower commodity prices. Cash-based G&A expenses amounted to $6 million in the third…

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

Thank you, Gary. We’re now going to move on to a discussion on Antamina. As Patrick mentioned at the start of this call, there is a presentation available on our website. That will guide through the page numbers that we reference will include the page numbers on that website. So that conversation is titled Antamina more high-quality silver ounces aptly titled, they made out November 4, 2015. I’m going to start on Slide 3, I mean there is some forward-looking statements and the risks associated with such are described in Slide 2. But on Slide 3, this transaction with Glencore provides immediate production and cash flow from a world-class mine. Antamina is one of the best in the world. And Glencore as percentage of ownership of this mine is 33.75%. So we’re going to be getting 33.75% of the silver deliveries from Antamina, which begins accruing as of October 2015, so it starts with the beginning of this first quarter. Once we’ve received $140 million ounces, it will drop down by a third down to 22%. We do also get a silver payable rate of 100% through this transaction. So 100% of whatever silver is produced gets delivered to us. This production should average about 4.7 million ounces of silver per year over the first 20 years based on the current mine plans. We expect to see a little bit over five million ounces for the next couple of years here and as I said over 4.7 million ounces on the first 20. This asset fits beautifully within our portfolio. Those that know Silver Wheaton know that we have a high-quality portfolio we really strive on investing into assets in the bottom half of the cost curve. And this asset is well down I’d tell you in the low decile…

Gary Brown

Analyst

Thank you, Randy. I’m on Page 12 for those following along in the presentation. The company will fund the upfront cash payment of $900 million with cash on hand and borrowing under a $2 billion revolving credit facility. As of September 30, 2015, the company was in a net debt position of $566 million, without accounting for cash flows generated prior to the closing. The company would be in a net debt position of about $1.47 billion after making the $900 million upfront payment. We are very comfortable with this level of debt for a number of reasons. First, it is important to remember, how attractive because of this debt capital is with the interest rate being based on live ore plus a small spread which ranges from 120 to 220 basis points. Second, we’ve generated almost $400 million of operating cash flow on a trailing four quarter basis, which is consistent with the operating cash flows generated in the most recent quarter. Antamina is expected to contribute an additional $65 of operating cash flow annually. In addition, we expect production growth of 24% from 2015 to 2019. This will translate into a very strong cash flow profile, whereby the company expect to generate close to $2 billion of operating cash flow, even at current commodity prices over the next four and a quarter years alone. And it is important to remember that this cash flow comes from a very high quality, low cost portfolio of assets for which there are no additional upfront payments required to be made. Finally, when we amended our revolving credit facility in the first quarter of this year, we move to a much more flexible covenant package. On Page 13 of the presentation, we outlined how comfortably, we should be able to comply with these covenants. First, we need to maintain a net debt to tangible net worth ratio of less than 0.75. As can be seen in the graph in the presentation material, after paying for the Antamina deal, we’re far below this covenant level at a 0.34 time ratio on a pro forma basis. The other covenant requires that we maintain a minimum interest coverage ratio of greater than three times. Again, on a pro forma basis, we expect this ratio to be over 2017. So as should be apparent Silver Wheaton can comfortably service and repay the debt levels that will result following the funding in this transaction. And with that, I’ll turn the call back over to Randy.

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

Slide 14, highlights how accretive this transaction is for us all the way across the board. This is of course based on the current mine plan. But you can see it definitely adds value all the way across significant increases in cash flow reserves and resources and of course production. The next few slides I’ll talk about the overall impact of Silver Wheaton as a whole. Slide 16, again highlights our portfolio. We now have 29 assets under contract and as you can see very, very politically stable jurisdictions Antamina itself this will improve. Peru is a country that we are very comfortable in we think it’s a country that’s already a very attractive investment climate and getting better and better all the time. And so very, very comfortable in Peru with Antamina. On Slide 17, it talks about our production growth forecast and the impact that Antamina has had on this. But you can see how strong our growth is over the next while. Well last year we did 30 – just over 35 million ounces of silver equivalent production. This year now with Antamina coming onboard we’ll be up over 44 million, ounces well over 44 million ounces of silver equivalent production. And as you can see here we will claim now to 55 million ounces of silver equivalent production by 2019. It’s important to note that other than – we have to pay the $900 million obviously by the end of November but other than that this is fully funded. There is no capital commitments that we have for that, we do have some optionality, some upside with respect to Rosemont, Pascua Lama and Toroparu, that themselves would add over and above that 55 million ounce of target. But we are fully funded to that 55 million…

Q - John Bridges

Analyst

I am John Bridges from Morgan Stanley, now interesting. Randy, I just [indiscernible] it looks like you’ve got about 4.3% return compared to the previous deal on Antamina, which is a bit above that. Could you – I am just curious as to what might be driving that. Is that differences in the guarantees from the sellers?

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

Well, there is a number of differences. I mean we don’t do a lot of comparing to the previous transactions. I mean I think this thing stands on its own. And so this thing fits in. I mean first half these assets; we see a lot of hidden value in this asset in terms of the potential for our exploration success, expansion potential and et cetera. So that’s something that plays into how we value in assets and you know that definitely comes into play. There are a lot of differences between this transaction and even previous transactions that we have done. This one has a 20% of production – or 20% of spot price production payment. We are getting a 100% payable, which is also different. It’s for a – obviously a 33.75% share of the production, so it’s larger on that side. And then our transaction of course is between Glencore’s company and our Silver Wheaton Caymans subsidiary. So there are some key differences. I can’t comment on how it’s different from peer group transactions. We value this based on what we think it’s worth. And so, John, I can’t really comment on the key differences there because I am not sure what went into their calculations.

John Bridges

Analyst

Okay, well, thanks for that. And just second one, may be the resources, what do you understand is needed to bring those resources into reserves, what is their strip ratio issue, is that underground mining, what do you see that being developed?

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

It’s even simpler than that John. It’s tailings pond capacity. The reserves are defined by having to fit into the existing tailings pond capacity. They have already got substantive design work and properties in place to deal with that in the future, but until it’s fully permitted and going forward and that’s a process that they don’t have to worry about for a while, but they’re working on it. They have already got those plans in place, but it’s strictly tailings pond capacity with stuffs the M&I from turning into P&B or the bulk of the M&I.

John Bridges

Analyst

Excellent, excellent well, I’ll get out of the way. Congratulations on the deal.

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

Thank you very much, John.

John Bridges

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Cosmos Chiu from CIBC. Please go ahead.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst

Andy, Gary and team, a few questions here maybe on Antamina first as well, following up on the question previously. Essentially, I guess, there has been two streaming deals completed on the same asset in the past month in a bit. I am just wondering if there were any kind of possibilities in terms of a syndication like cooperation between the royalty companies and a streaming companies that could have driven returns higher for the entire industry.

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

Well, Cosmos, I mean I will tell you I mean there is always possibilities. I would argue that if you are selling an asset, you probably don’t like syndication. And so, there is challenges there. To me syndication has only a real chance of – of happening if there is a capacity issue unless there is other sort of settle slight differences that maybe advantaged by syndicating. But we work with our partners to try and have strong relationships that work best for both parties for us and our partners. If my partners aren’t happy with the transaction, I am not really interested in entering into it because these are very long-term relationships and that’s not the way to start off the long-term relationship. And so with respect to the returns, I mean, I think the only time syndication actually makes sense is there is a lack of capacity and we definitely have the capacity to manage this transaction on our own and we are quite happy with the expected rate of returns. What we expect to see is the potential of this property – in this asset and what it delivers to us. And so syndication may happen, but it’s going to come down to – if it does happen it will be because there is a lack of capacity on the streaming side. Before that, I can tell you that if I was in a vendor’s wall, I think as the vendor of anyone that does a syndication or that allow the syndication is probably doing their own shareholders a disservice by reducing the competitive tension in that environment and I am just looking for a healthy business environment here.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst

Yes, of course, I fully understand but it’s always nice to have a higher IRR, no matter how high, the basis and that was a purpose of my question.

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

Okay.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst

But may be switching gears a little bit here in terms of the debt; Gary and Randy, you’ve talked about how comfortable are you with the debt? But how aggressively do you think you will be in terms of trying to pay that down?

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

Well, I mean because it is a revolving facility, we will direct all of our free cash flow to repaying that debt. And again even at current commodity prices that should – our operating cash flow should be up north of $465 million a year. And that grows as Constancia and Salobo come online. So we will easily be repaying that debt over the next few years.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst

Yes. So potentially if I work out the math correctly, can potentially fill a pack [ph] but then like three years.

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

Yes. I mean it all comes down to making the best decision forward. I mean all we recognize that having a bit of leverage also helps if there is opportunities. This is a good opportunity set out there, but our focus is obviously every, every dollar that comes in, we would be putting against that revolver, but the fact that revolver does also frees that up and those dollars up to help us in terms of new opportunities that may come through the pipeline.

Gary Brown

Analyst

Yes, and it’s also important to remember that we’ve got almost 4.5 years left on the term of that debt revolver.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst

Yes. And then on that revolver as well, Gary, you mentioned that – I believe you paid about 1.7% interest this past quarter. Understanding that you know the basis points primed [ph] or added to the LIBOR rates between 120 basis points to 220 basis points. It’s also dependent on your leverage ratios. Given the additional debt what should be modeling in terms of interest rate?

Gary Brown

Analyst

Well, we should be initially at the top of that range that 220 basis points range, but we will quickly drop down below that. And so, we should be at 1.7% which is the next year down from the 220 basis points, Q1 of next year.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst

And the base LIBOR rate that’s based on the U.S. dollar LIBOR…

Gary Brown

Analyst

That’s right.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst

Okay. Great, that’s all I have. Thank you.

Gary Brown

Analyst

Thanks, Cosmos.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Josh Wolfson from Dundee Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

Quick ones. First one relates to I guess the letter of credit. You guys are posing for this year rate deposit. Have you been able to confirm whether you can use that or is that not going to happen I guess until you shift the capital well?

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

Yes, I mean we’re still in discussions with the CRA on that front. It’s unclear as to whether they’re going to accept the letter of credit, but we’re not at this point.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

Okay, but I guess you’ll probably finite about that in the next short growth at a short period of time I assume, right.

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

Yes, I would think we’ll have clarity on it by the end of the year.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

Okay. And then just nuance I guess for deal because you are receiving 100% payability do you to expect to be paid on at the time of production or is it going to be shipment from the miners that are going to be, I guess, net small reserve [ph] production.

Gary Brown

Analyst

We get paid at the end of the month that follows the month of delivery. And so anything that’s delivered in say October, we would be paid at the end of November.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

Okay. So you probably – you’ll have your same-store variance you have with most of your production base and you will see some increase in inventories, I guess, over the next tower of long period.

Gary Brown

Analyst

Yes, that’s right. It’s a – it is a shorter inventory pipeline I guess is the way to describe it. I mean, because it’s upon delivery. But there will be fluctuations in that. This is a pretty large operation as I mentioned [indiscernible] just copper mine in the world. And the fact that it’s got a pipeline that moves down and stockpiles but there – as there is this all concentrate producing mines there’s always going to be some ups and downs with respect to that. We’d probably estimate this one will have about a one month delay.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

Okay. And then last question. I guess Glencore made a comment today saying that they expected to do more streaming deals in the market. When you look at that opportunity and I’m sure that these probably count in your discussions. Looking at your current exposure with Antamina to Glencore which is your comparable expecting additional assets that they acquire [ph] in the market or you sort of at your back current time?

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

No, we’re always looking at all these opportunities. This market is – and I said this before this is the strongest market I’ve seen in the of course in the 11 years, we’ve run this market it is 11 years. Now that we’ve run this company, this is the strongest market we’ve seen in terms of opportunities. So we will have a look at options available, I know Glencore does have some other top quality copper assets that they are working on and that said, we’ve got a good strong relationship with Glencore. So we’d obviously be talking with them.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

Okay. That’s it from me. Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Andrew Kaip from BMO. Please go ahead.

Andrew Kaip

Analyst

Look, I’ve got a question just regarding the impairment with 777, can you give us a sense of what the breakout between the changes in metal price assumptions versus your view geologically on how long that stream would be able to deliver. Is there like a percentage breakout that you can provide for it.

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

Yes Andrew, I mean roughly one-third of the impairment was attributable to drop in metal prices, and two-thirds was due to the lack of exploration success.

Andrew Kaip

Analyst

Okay. And then just on this stream, the Antamina stream, you were getting 100% payability of production, but there is an adjustment of that production when it comes to the treatment and refining. Can you give us a sense of what that adjustment would be?

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

I’m not sure what you are talking about Mr. Kaip.

Andrew Kaip

Analyst

Well, you produce – the mine produces the concentrate and there is a payability factor at the refinery. So what is the payability factor?

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

Well it’s, we get 100% of whatever goes in that concentrate.

Andrew Kaip

Analyst

Okay, all right.

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

Whatever is in the concentrate, we get 100% off. And you have keep in mind that lot of these concentrates Glencore is a active trading and smelting company also. And although the payability factor is there because the lot of this goes into the Glencore trading world, as we know a lot of these companies actually do much better than what they actually paid for.

Andrew Kaip

Analyst

Yes, okay, needed that to be clarified, thank you.

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

Okay.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Dan Rollins from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Thanks. So Randy, congrats on the deal.

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

Thanks Dan.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

You guys are now that’s getting over that $50 million mark, you’ve always talked about, as you guys got critical math and I see you there with the free cash flow, you are kicking out in the quarterly basis [ph]. What are your thoughts on the dividend going forward, are you at a point now where we can substitute that 20% threshold begin to increase or is there – is just the opportunities that too large right now, at this time?

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

Well. I think as Gary sort of highlighted earlier on, I think, probably the more important thing is to just bring our debt levels down with this cash flow that we’re generating over the next month. I mean obviously we see some opportunities we’re not taking ourselves out of the market for that, but our primary focus will be there, but we are getting pretty close to that cash flow capacity. And I’ve always said, this company will eventually turn into a yield-focused. We are still growth focused. That’s a pay down, this is the best environment that I’ve seen out there right now for growing, streaming company in terms of the quality of the asset. And so I don’t know if this is the right time to turn it into dividend or focusing our shift to bit to focus in yield in fact I would suggest that’s not. I think it’s the time to sort of build our foundations and then when we start seeing a bit of a commodity price rebound, which we are confident that we’re near our bottom, at our bottom or near bottom right now. When we start to seeing that kind of movement, I think, that’s the point where you’re going to start seeing less opportunities available. You’ll get probably, I would suggest, the potential of a real strong movement in our dividend, because you get a combination of higher commodity price. Our growing profile, assuming it happens within the next few years, although we have growth beyond that. And that’s the time that I would suggest we’d be likely looking at potentially waiting that dividend rate. And so all of that combined would add some strength. But right now, I think, our focuses on capital management and also making sure that the best environment that I’ve seen to grow this company ever in the history of streaming that would make sure we’re positioned well to also take advantage of any opportunities to come through that.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Just given the number of large deals you’ve done over the last two and half, two years, do you think it’s – are you guys looking at maybe potentially just talking a little bit of time to harvest the cash flow you’re not going to generate from Salobo, and Antamina, and Constancia and then wait to see some opportunities? Or if the bright opportunity comes out, you guys still have the ability to go and jump at it.

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

As Gary highlighted, with respect to our covenants we’ve still got plenty of capacity. And so I look across the table here in and Haytham is shaking his head, saying no way we were slowing down, we have a lot of good opportunities. So I mean, we’re not interested levering up. We do want to be responsible with the balance sheet. So there’s a fine balances, but we’re definitely going to be having look at that.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Okay. And then may be just switching gears sort of still in the corporate development side, but are you guys seeing any opportunities to put the advance deposit agreement to work on more of an active basis. Obviously there is probably some projects that are of decent quality that have run into balance sheet issue and are now seeing management teams may be willing to bring in a partner. Is that an opportunity set that is increasing and competing with some of these larger opportunities now?

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

There’s no doubt. The current market is extremely tough on those single asset development companies in early stage or late stage exploration fast development companies. They don’t have the same access to debt that rest of this market has. And of course the equity market is non-supportive right now. And so we do see some opportunities in there. I mean, the one challenge we’re facing is finding good quality assets, good quality opportunities. The market is pretty selective, there are few bright stars in this space. Our trick is to find and identify those, the ones that the market doesn’t recognize and those are the ones that we hope to be able to step in and work with to help. And so it’s definitely got some appeal. I like the concept because it gives us some long-term optionality where we get to bring some very promising projects into our portfolio. And that’s a stuff that’s going to deliver the long-term growth for us along with continued acquisitions and the development and operating stage. So this environment, as I said, it’s the best I’ve ever seen and it’s not just in the – these are very high profile companies with high profile assets like Antamina and others, that are available to us right now. But there’s also a lot of the single asset juniors that are looking for that support. And we’re happy to work with them too.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Great, thanks again and thanks. Congrats on the deal and regards on another great quarter guys.

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

Thank you, Dan.

Randy Smallwood

Analyst

And thanks to everyone for dialing in today. Silver Wheaton is on track for a record year production and sales in 2015. And given our fully funded organic growth profile, we look forward to that continued strength over the coming years. And then demonstrated with the Antamina acquisition we remained focused on building our portfolio of streams on low-cost, high-quality assets. We continue to believe that Silver Wheaton offers the best option for gaining exposure to precious metals by offering a proven track record of accretive acquisitions and tangible organic growth. So I want to thank everyone for dialing in today and we do look forward to speaking with you all again soon. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes this conference call for today. Thank you for participating. Please disconnect your lines.