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Wolfspeed, Inc. (WOLF)

Q2 2011 Earnings Call· Wed, Jan 19, 2011

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Amanda, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Cree Inc. Second Quarter Earnings Announcement Fiscal Year 2011 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to introduce Raiford Garrabrant, Director of Investor Relations at Cree Inc. Mr. Garrabrant, you may begin your conference.

Raiford Garrabrant

Analyst

Thank you, Amanda, and good afternoon. Welcome to Cree's Second Quarter Fiscal 2011 Earnings Conference Call. By now, you should have all received a copy of the press release. If you did not receive a copy, please call our office at (919) 287-7895, and we will be pleased to assist you. Today, Chuck Swoboda, our Chairman and CEO; and John Kurtzweil, Cree's CFO, will report on our results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2011. Please note that we will be presenting both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results in our remarks during today's call, which are reconciled in our press release and financial metrics posted in the Investor Relations section of our website at www.cree.com under Quarterly Results in the Financial Information tab. Today's presentations include forward-looking statements about our business outlook, and we may make other forward-looking statements during the call. These may include comments concerning trends in revenue, gross margin and earnings, plans for new products and other forward-looking statements indicated by words like anticipate, expect, target and estimate. Such forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties. Our press release today and the SEC filings noted in the release, mention important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. Also, we'd like to note that we will be limiting our comments regarding Cree's second quarter for fiscal year 2011 to a discussion of the information included in our earnings release and the metrics posted on our website. We will not be able to answer any questions that would involve providing additional financial information about the quarter beyond the comments made in the prepared remarks. This call is being recorded on behalf of the company. The presentations and the recording of this call are copyrighted property of the company, and no other recording, reproduction or transcription is permitted unless authorized by the company in writing. Consistent with our previous conference call, we are requesting that only sell-side analysts ask questions during the Q&A session. Also, since we plan to complete the call in the allotted time of one hour, we ask that analysts limit themselves to one question and one follow-up. We recognize that other investors may have additional questions, and we welcome you to contact us after the call by email or phone at (919) 287-7895. We're also webcasting our conference call, and a replay will be available on our website through February 1, 2011. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Chuck.

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · JPMorgan

Thank you, Raiford. Fiscal Q2 results reflected continued growth in our LED Lighting product line, but revenue and earnings were lower than our targets for the quarter. This was primarily due to lower sales for LED component distributors in Asia, due to an inventory correction at their customers. The inventory correction has been caused by a pause in the China LED streetlight demand and lower-than-expected growth in LED bulb applications. Revenue was $257 million or 5% below our target range, which resulted in non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.55, which was $0.01 below our targeted range. Despite the lower revenue, many of our key LED product areas grew in Q2, and we continue to execute well with gross margins of 48%, which were in line with our targets for the quarter. As I said during last quarter's earnings call, disrupting markets can be messy. The opportunity in LED lighting has not changed and if anything, we are more confident we will see continued adoption over the next several years. We remain well positioned to lead this market and drive the adoption of LED lighting, which, in the end, is what puts us in a position to build a much larger company and create a sustainable brand for Cree in the market. Revenue declined 4% from Q1 to $257 million, as growth in our LED lighting, power and our Direct LED Components business was offset by 30% decline in sales to our LED component distributors. The LED Lighting Product business grew double digits again and exceeded our plans for the quarter on the strength of sales to Home Depot, Zumtobel and continued growth in our commercial downlight products. Power product sales and LED chips were in line with our targets. LED component sales to direct customers grew double digits, driven by…

John Kurtzweil

Analyst · Steve Milunovich from the Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Thank you, Chuck. I will be providing commentary on our financial statements on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis, which is consistent with how management measures Cree's results internally. However, non-GAAP results are not in accordance with GAAP, and may not be comparable to non-GAAP information provided by other companies. Non-GAAP information should be considered a supplement to, and not a substitute for, financial statements prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP information to the corresponding GAAP measures for all quarters mentioned on this call is posted on our website, along with a historical summary of other key metrics. For the second quarter of fiscal 2011, revenue was $257 million compared to our targeted range of $270 million to $280 million. This is a 4% decline sequentially and a 29% increase year-over-year. GAAP net income was $49.8 million, a decline of 14% sequentially and a 47% increase year-over-year. GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.45 compared to our targeted range of $0.46 to $0.50. On a non-GAAP basis, net income was $60.7 million, a decline of 8% sequentially and a 51% increase year-over-year. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.55 as compared to our targeted range of $0.56 to $0.60. Non-GAAP net income excludes $11 million of expense net of tax or $0.10 per diluted share from the amortization of acquired intangibles and stock-based compensation expense. We continued to strengthen our balance sheet and ended the quarter with $1.11 billion in cash and investments, which increased to $12 million since the end of September. Cash provided by operations was $57.2 million, which included $25.9 million of depreciation and amortization. I will now provide additional details on the second quarter results. LED product revenue declined 6% sequentially to $229.7 million. Power and RF revenue increased 13% sequentially to…

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · JPMorgan

Thanks, John. We remain focused on four key areas to continue to drive our business in fiscal 2011. Our first priority is to build on our leadership in LED lighting and continue to be a catalyst for LED lighting adoption by challenging people's addiction to old energy-wasting technologies. The EcoSmart LED downlight at Home Depot is selling well and ahead of our original targets. Customer feedback has been very positive, and this product has confirmed that consumers are willing to pay for no compromise LED lighting that is as good, or better, than what it replaces and pays for itself in terms of long lifetime and energy savings. On the new technology front, we believe the LED bulb market has been lacking a no compromise product for the consumer market. I am pleased to announce that we recently demonstrated the brightest, most efficient LED-based A-Lamp that meets ENERGY STAR performance requirements for a 60-watt standard LED replacement bulb. This level of performance is the result of Cree's continued innovation and focus on improving LED brightness and efficiency, and the use of our award-winning Cree TrueWhite technology and patented remote phosphor technology. The dimmable prototype bulb delivers more than 800 lumens, consumes fewer than 10 watts and features a CRI of 90 at a warm white 2,700k color. Demonstrating a commercial 60-watt replacement at less than 10 watts is a significant milestone for the industry, and the race to commercialize LED bulbs and reduce the cost, the industry has forgotten that LED lighting is supposed to save energy and deliver quality light that is as good, or better, than what it replaces. With this combination of new technology, we can deliver high efficiency, better light quality and a low cost. We plan to use this product and the technology we have…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Chris Blansett from JPMorgan. Christopher Blansett - JP Morgan Chase & Co: Chuck, I had a question about your comments about the China market. You indicated that obviously, there's a slowdown due to the standard setting. But you also indicated that you're qualified at the majority of LED light makers who already meet those standards. Just wondering why we should see continued weakness there before you really see that pick up again if you already have a lot of products that already meet the standards?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · JPMorgan

Yes, so Chris, what's going on is that effectively, what's in the market is our customers who are anticipating that the current pause would not be as significant as it was. So they got ahead of themselves from an inventory standpoint. So they're going through an inventory correction. And two, the market hasn't really turned back on. Although the new standards are out and a number of companies now have been basically, I don't know what right word is, qualified under those standards, but we don't expect most of those projects to really gain momentum until after Chinese New Year. So I really think we'll see the benefits more in Q4 than we will in this quarter, so it's really a timing issue. They got to work through their inventory, and then I think, as the new projects get put out there, then we'll see the market start to pick back up. Christopher Blansett - JP Morgan Chase & Co: And then my second question is tied to the Lighting Products business. You said demand has been stronger than you thought. And I just wasn't sure if you can provide more color. Was that really from the CR6 at Home Depot, continued growth in the conventional lighting channel with your LR6 type products or where is it coming from?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · JPMorgan

It really was all three, Chris. So Home Depot is ahead of our original targets. The Zumtobel business actually grew nicely, continue to grow nicely last quarter, so that's doing well, as well as just the normal selling our LR6 in our traditional products through our normal channels continue to gain momentum. And I think that's a function of having those products out in the market long enough that they really gotten design in most places, and they've become just less more broadly adopted by the traditional lighting industry in terms of general purpose lighting retrofits.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dale Pfau from Cantor Fitzgerald. Dale Pfau - Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.: A quick question on this Distribution business that moved out here at the end of the quarter based upon your outlook, and we kind of assumed that whatever moved out, you're kind of moving that forward also into the fourth quarter. And then, could you give us kind of a magnitude of where you are right now with what percentage of your Component business is going in to distribution?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Dale Pfau from Cantor Fitzgerald

Yes, so let me give the magnitude. The distribution is now, it's a little under 2/3 of the business, so it's down little bit from where it was a couple of quarters. So it's still an important part of our strategy, and we'll continue to invest in that. But the direct, for the last couple of quarters, has obviously been, continue to grow. So the mix has changed a little bit there. In terms of the demand, so we basically -- those orders moved into Q3 and then what I think you'll see is it's really a function of how much demand can we help generate at their customers, and frankly in end markets. So at this point, with the lead times being pretty short, Dale, we mostly have visibility into Q3, so it's a little hard to speculate into Q4 at this point. But I would imagine that at least for Q3, we'll be going through this correction for this quarter and it really won't be until we get the demands going again both in streetlight and some of the other bulb applications that will kind of come on to the technology side. Dale Pfau - Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.: And then as a follow-up, could you talk a little bit about where you're seeing the demands for the technology and pricing? Clearly you're leading on the technology side. I know you're pushing on the pricing side. How do you see the competitive dynamic out there?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Dale Pfau from Cantor Fitzgerald

I don't think the market's changed a lot in the last quarter. We came into our Q2 knowing that it was a competitive pricing environment. And I think we've said for a couple of quarters, we've been pretty aggressive to try to drive adoption. That stance hasn't changed. We continue to go aggressively after new applications. With that being said, they're pretty much in line with our targets, and I think the best example of that is if you look at our gross margin, it came in pretty much in line with our plan, and the pricing assumptions we made were pretty much in line. So it's essentially for what we expected to happen, it's kind of happening that way other than the inventory correction in Asia. So I think we're going to stay aggressive. I think we're in a great position to drive the market. It's a combination of technology and lumens per dollar, and I think as we keep pushing here, we are going to open up some new applications going forward.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Harsh Kumar from Morgan Stanley.

Harsh Kumar - Morgan, Keegan and Company

Analyst · Harsh Kumar from Morgan Stanley

It's actually Morgan Keegan. Two questions. China street lighting, Chuck. You talked about you expect most of the impact in Q4. Are you building anything into your guidance for this March quarter at all? Or are you just deferring all that to the June quarter?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Harsh Kumar from Morgan Stanley

Yes. Harsh, our expectation right now is that we'll see some projects start to happen post-Chinese New Year. But in terms of driving growth for Cree, I would expect right now that, that's really targeted for Q4. And the thinking there is that we know the customers got a little ahead of themselves, so we really got to let them to work through some of their inventory this quarter, and that puts us everyone in a better position heading into Q4. And again, it's subject to those projects coming online as expected but it looks like those will start to happen here post-Chinese New Year.

Harsh Kumar - Morgan, Keegan and Company

Analyst · Harsh Kumar from Morgan Stanley

And then another question, a company came out, a small competitor, a couple of days ago, talked about pretty significant pricing pressure. Your gross margin guidance of 46%, how much of that is efficiency or yields versus pricing pressure? I mean, what part of your business, I guess, is experiencing where you go out and compete on the street and experience pricing pressure? Any color will be helpful.

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Harsh Kumar from Morgan Stanley

Yes, so Harsh, if you think about it, both LED chips and the Component business, we knew that we were in a very competitive environment for a couple of quarters now, and so we've been acting that way. I think what you see in our gross margin is that despite the fact that it's a competitive market with short lead times, that our cost structure has been in a pretty good place to enable us to keep going after the markets. And on the other side, it's tracking how we would expect it to in a cycle like this. So I think we remain competitive. I think it fits within our business model that we're trying to accomplish, and I think it's just a normal part of the business cycle right now. So I'm not sure. It's generally tracking with what we're expecting. Obviously, we are in this quarter, our gross margin targets have two things or really, three elements. We know it will continue to be a competitive pricing environment, we know that we're going to have a little less factory utilization because we are going to try to balance the factory a little better, given that we built inventory last quarter, and the offsetting factor is, is that we continue to target more yield improvement. And it's really the combination of those things that kind of gives us -- it really leads to the targets we put out there for you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Huang from Sterne Agee. Andrew Huang - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc.: First question is China street lighting. Can you give us a sense of how much of that goes direct versus disti?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Andrew Huang from Sterne Agee

Yes. I don't have the break-out for you, Andrew, I would tell you that our China business, we do have some direct customers, but probably more of our business in China is disti, but there's probably a relatively strong balance on both sides. If I had to guess, I don't have the data in front of me, it's probably a little heavier disti. Andrew Huang - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc.: And on cost per lumen, you've talked about the 150-millimeter transition starting to have an impact in your September 11 quarter. Is that correct? Production?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Andrew Huang from Sterne Agee

Yes. So our first fiscal quarter of 2012, that would be yes. Andrew Huang - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc.: So can you give us a sense on some of the things that you're looking at to kind of cut costs between now and then?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Andrew Huang from Sterne Agee

So Andrew, we're going to do the traditional things. Obviously, we're always looking at productivity improvements. As we come out with new products, we try to design products that are lower cost to make, and we have yield improvement that is an ongoing never-ending process. And those would be the three things that are pretty much an everyday part of life at Cree and is something we've been working on for a long time. In addition to that then is major activities. It's like 150-millimeter, which that's kind of the other piece. And right now, we're really in investment mode. It's a large part of the increase you're seeing in R&D, but again I think we should get a nice benefit from that in 2012 once it starts to ramp up. Andrew Huang - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc.: Then just one last follow-up. Do you have any concerns about Philips Lumileds starting production at 150-millimeter about a month ago?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Andrew Huang from Sterne Agee

No. We read all the stuff that people talk about their own capability. I'm pretty confident given what we know about where the industry is in the market in our own capability that we should be in a really strong position, getting up the volume curve and 150-millimeter, and I feel really good about our position there.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Joshua Paradise from Morgan Stanley.

Joshua Paradise - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Joshua Paradise from Morgan Stanley

I'm wondering if you can talk a little bit about the marketshare that you have or whether you think it's increasing or decreasing? Specifically, maybe a little bit product by product. So the street lighting, the commercial lighting?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Joshua Paradise from Morgan Stanley

So boy, we don't have great data for you. I can give you some anecdotal data from what we calculate internally. I would say in streetlights, our market share remains solid. And really the challenge you're worth seeing in streetlight now is not a share issue, it's been a market pause. So we feel really good about where we stand there. I think if you look at the indoor markets, I think in the bulb market, we don't have as high a share but I don't know that it's changing. I really think what we're seeing in LED bulbs is really just -- I think the customers had bet that the market was going to go faster than it did, so they're going through an inventory correction. But we pushed pretty hard on share there and feels like we're working holding our own. And then in some of the commercial lighting applications, I think the ones that are really pushing lumens per watt and efficiency, we're doing well. And on the lower end ones, we probably have less share. But I don't see a significant change there. I think that's kind of where we've been strong here over the last year.

Joshua Paradise - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Joshua Paradise from Morgan Stanley

Can you quantify the share at all or give a kind of a range?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Joshua Paradise from Morgan Stanley

We have some internal numbers, but we don't break those out in terms of what the share is because there just -- we don't have an independent way to validate it. It's just not something we break out.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse from Barclays Capital.

Olga Levinzon - Barclays

Analyst · C.J. Muse from Barclays Capital

This is Olga, calling in for C.J. A couple of questions. Can you talk about where the inventory of your chips currently stands at your disti customers? And where it was exiting the September quarter?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · C.J. Muse from Barclays Capital

So it's not chips. I think you actually meaning inventory of our LED components.

Olga Levinzon - Barclays

Analyst · C.J. Muse from Barclays Capital

Yes.

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · C.J. Muse from Barclays Capital

So components, I would tell you that the inventory from a dollar basis, it's pretty similar. I think the dollar amount is plus or minus about the same as it was at the end of the previous quarter. So we're really watching is, actually inventory at their customers is where we think we need to work through that. Obviously, we'd like, we'd have more churns at disti but at the end of the day, their dollars and inventory is relatively flat quarter-to-quarter.

Olga Levinzon - Barclays

Analyst · C.J. Muse from Barclays Capital

And then on the FX side, is the March key level what we should be assuming going forward or will there be some pulls and takes as you move through the year?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · C.J. Muse from Barclays Capital

I think what you got to realize is, so if I think about OpEx at a high level, we're going to invest in sales and marketing as we go through the year. Obviously, that is exactly how much we invest each quarter is going to vary. R&D, we're in kind of a pretty high-cost situation right now in terms of a significant investment to get the 150 qualified. So R&D spending of this quarter, it will also probably be pretty healthy next quarter as well. But then once 150-millimeter gets qualified and comes online, some of the cost you see today shouldn't be necessary once that products qualify. That doesn't mean we won't continue to invest in new product and all the other areas of our R&D, that's going to be part of our business. But I think we're in a third of time where it's a little heavier than normal because of the 150-millimeter.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Milunovich from the Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Steven Milunovich - BofA Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Steve Milunovich from the Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Chuck, I guess I can understand the put-off in the Chinese street lighting. Can you talk a bit more about -- you mentioned the bulb weakness out there. I mean you guys have been, you spent a good part of last year oversold. Do these distributors you deal with, they all tend to only sell into streetlamps or can't they find other applications to kind of put the product in? And recall the comment, I think one of you guys made recently, which is maybe we're getting a bit ahead of our customer's ability to use our technology. I just wondered if you could comment on what's going on in some of those non-streetlight applications.

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Steve Milunovich from the Bank of America Merrill Lynch

In LED bulbs specifically, Steve, we've been looking at this really close this quarter. What we've seen is that if I go back to our fiscal Q1, when leads times were still relatively long, I think a lot of customers, not the distributors necessarily, but their customers were betting on a certain growth rate in LED bulb applications. And although the application is growing, it's not growing at the rate that they were assuming. And so effectively when lead times were long, got ahead of themselves, and so there will be applications growing. Now it is not as growing as fast, they have too much inventory that they've got to work through here. The good news is, I think bulbs is an application that will continue to grow, because I think we're going to see better performance and lower costs going forward. But I think we've got to work through that, and I think it's a function of the customer who's speculating demand would be x, if a little less than x. And so they basically got caught when the lead times were long.

Steven Milunovich - BofA Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Steve Milunovich from the Bank of America Merrill Lynch

And then one for John, the 46% gross margin guidance next quarter, just wondering if you're very confident in that, or if there might be some downside, given that you're losing about a point due to that -- correct me if I'm wrong, due to the nonrecurring or maybe that was on expenses, not gross margin. But you got a lot of inventory to work off. I know you're going to have to discount that and given your competitor's comment about your very aggressive pricing in one particular situation, do you feel highly confident in the 46%?

John Kurtzweil

Analyst · Steve Milunovich from the Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Yes. What we did is we think that there's a little bit of variability in the gross margin but in terms of our estimate, we have adjusted our build schedules, we've taken that into account, we're planning to bring our days of inventory down. So we've taken all that into consideration. So we think that, that's the best guess at this time.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Amir from Lazard Capital.

Daniel Amir - Lazard Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Daniel Amir from Lazard Capital

I was wondering if you can give a comment about how do you view kind of the big-picture industry growth currently, considering where we are kind of in the market and the issues that you're facing? And how does Cree fit into that industry growth, considering you got about three quarters here that it's been flat to slight growth?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Daniel Amir from Lazard Capital

Look, Daniel, I think you got to consider where we're at. Our best estimate would be somewhere in that roughly, let's call it 4% of adoption in LEDs and the overall lighting market. I think anytime you’re at that early stage of the market, you're basically counting on specific applications that turn on and ramp up, and it's not one application, it's lots of different ones. So for example, there's obvious things that are going well because our Direct business continues to grow. But for example, in our Asia's China Streetlight business, which is a big chunk of our business, when that specific segment pauses, I don't think anyone believes that LED streetlights aren't going to continue to be adopted, but it does go through a two-quarter pause when they're trying to do the regulations. So from my standpoint, I think everyone likes to look at industry transitions in hindsight and think they were straight line. I think they're always a little bit lumpy on the way up. And I think when you're this early, I remain pretty optimistic, right? I think we're going to be able to make LED streetlights better than they are today with new LEDs. They're going to become more cost effective, I think that drives more adoption. I think the same thing happens in bulbs, commercial lighting. I just see lots of opportunity out there. I see lots of innovation required to make it happen but, I think we're in the early stages of this thing and I think as long as we keep driving innovation that makes our customers' products better, that makes their value proposition better, then we should be in a good position to benefit as the market grows, and frankly make it happen. And I think if we make it happen, that puts Cree in a pretty good position.

Daniel Amir - Lazard Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Daniel Amir from Lazard Capital

How should we look at it going forward, kind of the impact of what goes on in China in terms of LED demand? If it's for street lighting or general lighting on Cree's business?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Daniel Amir from Lazard Capital

Well look, China's a big part of our business. I think if you look at through our fiscal year ended FY fiscal '10, I think it was just under 40%. I think the exact number was 39%. So it's an important part of our business. We're going to continue to emphasize that market. I think China is a country that seize the benefits of LED lighting, and that I think we need to continue to focus there to be successful. It doesn't mean it's the only market for us, but it will be important, and I think you'll see us continue to invest there to make that happen. But I think we'll also see growth in all the other markets right? So whether it be the U.S., Europe or frankly, some of the new developing countries, that won't be a big impact in the next year, but I think over time, you'll see LED lighting adoption, those conversations become more important.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Chin from UBS.

Stephen Chin

Analyst · Stephen Chin from UBS

I was wondering, Chuck, if you could talk about how you think industry sapphire, raw material prices might trend in 2011? I know Cree doesn't use sapphire to make products, but your competitors do. So I was wondering if Cree's moved to -- near the 6-inch wafers can fully offset any sapphire price decline benefits that your competitors might have?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Stephen Chin from UBS

We've actually had, for a long time, a parallel program in R&D on sapphire. And the reason we've never converted is that a year ago, when sapphire prices were relatively competitive before they went through the supply-demand phenomenon, even at that time, for us, we got a lower cost on silicon carbide than on sapphire. Because remember, we make it ourselves internally, so our costs are probably less than what people think they are. Two, the yield you get on that wafer from your FE process all the way through your line is a bigger leverage on your cost than the cost of a substrate itself. So I think that I'm sure there'll be some effect. If sapphire supplies comes online and there's more availability. I'm sure we'll have some effect on the market, but I think it's a relatively minor number, relative to what people's yields are and what they're able to do to develop the high-end lighting chips to go after the market we're focused on.

Stephen Chin

Analyst · Stephen Chin from UBS

And then just a quick question for John, on the inventory, this was the second quarter that inventory's growing faster than sales. So I was wondering if there's any concerns of any inventory write-downs, John?

John Kurtzweil

Analyst · Stephen Chin from UBS

Well, we look at debt every quarter, and we make valuation allowances that are appropriate on it. And what we're doing is as we're growing the business, we're putting it in place. And we're targeting that our inventory in terms of days will actually come down next quarter into the upper 80s.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Dorsheimer from Canaccord Adams.

Jonathan Dorsheimer - Canaccord Genuity

Analyst · John Dorsheimer from Canaccord Adams

I guess first, just on the last question, the inventory, getting it down into the high 80s is about 10 days, and so implying that the utilization will come down, do you expect that we're going to be in this, basically this margin bracket for the next couple of quarters, sort of that 46%, plus or minus, in order to work things down?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · John Dorsheimer from Canaccord Adams

Yes, Jon. I don't have a target for you for Q4 but I can talk about this. I think the fundamentals, which I think is what you're asking about. Right now remember that, that inventory increase, a lot of that was on the lighting side of the business. So that doesn't really affect factory utilization at all. That's a lot of inventory in terms of piece parts unrelated to our LEDs and other things to build lighting fixtures. I think you have to take that out of the equation. And it's really on the XLamp side where it's a smaller piece of that, that will be balancing that. So I think the utilization issue, we would hope that we can run the factory next quarter in the mid-80s, of mid-to-upper 80s, and that's kind of what we're targeting. And that depending on what we see in terms of the Streetlight business and some other things in Q4, we're not targeting utilization at least at this point to go a lot lower than that. Obviously, we'll see what demand does but at this point in time, that's kind of what we're thinking and then obviously, if demand grows, we'll look to see that number creep back up.

Jonathan Dorsheimer - Canaccord Genuity

Analyst · John Dorsheimer from Canaccord Adams

And then maybe just bigger picture question is my follow-up. You talk a lot about China's clearly important in growing, and it sounds like you're banking on the streetlight market, primarily there with some bulb applications too. In the U.S. market, where do you see that growth engine? Do you see it in a similar fashion to China? Or do you see it more of a bulb type application for replacement and not retro in the U.S. market? And how would you categorize sort of the geographic growth engine if we look out over the next two years?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · John Dorsheimer from Canaccord Adams

Yes. So I think in the U.S., there's also a large outdoor market, whether it be streetlights or commercial outdoors so that will clearly be a focus for us and that would be the same in Europe. I think when it comes to the U.S., I think the bulb market is, it's an interesting category. I think, obviously, we're following it real closely and there is definitely some adoption happening there. I think what we're itching to see is as new products come on, what kind of adoption can we drive? So I think, right now, I think it's an incremental growth driver, not a big one for the U.S. market. Keep in mind though for Cree, most of our sales from a U.S. bulb end market standpoint are really Asian-based LED sales. So it will show up in our China or other Asia sales because that's where the manufacturer of those bulbs is. And then the third piece is I think we're going to see a commercial market. Maybe not in the next couple of quarters, but over the next few years, I really think the commercial lighting, the indoor market is the place that has a real opportunity. It's going to take some innovation and get some better paybacks, but I think that's a place that while streetlights might be the easy one for people to see today, I would really look to see that application starting to get some traction here as we later this year, as we look out maybe over the next one to two years.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Heller from CLSA. Mark Heller - Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc.: I think you said that utilization would be in the mid-80s, I think it was the last question. Can you give us just frame of reference what utilization was in the December quarter?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Mark Heller from CLSA

Yes, it's mid-upper 80s is what we're targeting for Q3. And in Q2, I think it ran in the low 90s. Mark Heller - Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc.: And recently, one of your major customers in Europe announced the supply agreement with LG Innotek. I'm just wondering if you're seeing any increased competition from some of the Korean suppliers?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Mark Heller from CLSA

Obviously, that agreement, we've looked at pretty closely. Because Zumtobel is a very important customer for us. I think what it highlights is the complexity of the market. So our business with Zumtobel is actually growing, and that's because yes, the things about Zumtobel, it's really two companies, it's the lighting fixture company, that's who we're selling to from an LED standpoint, that's where we're really cooperating. And then they have their Tridonic division, which is really a component company for the lighting industry. And that's really where they own it. I don't see a lot of change in the market dynamics from the Korean suppliers right now. They're clearly up there, they've been sampling but I don't see a lot of traction in what I'll call the mainstream lighting application. Definitely, we're watching on some of the more lower-end consumer grade lighting applications, but haven't seen it in any of the mainstream commercial applications, but it's something that we're watching.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Yair Reiner from Oppenheimer & Co. Yair Reiner - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.: Just in second quarter, chip sales, were they down sequentially or were they flat?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Yair Reiner from Oppenheimer & Co

They were down, Yair, but right in line with what we had expected. So we had guided that chip sales will go down about 10% last quarter, and they were right on our target for the quarter. Yair Reiner - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.: And then when you think about R&D, can you give us a sense of what the normalized R&D level is if you take out what I think are largely one-time costs associated with the 150-millimeter ramp-up?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Yair Reiner from Oppenheimer & Co

I have not, I've been so focused on what we're doing here on the near term, I'm not sure I have that number for you. We can work that out, but I don't have something to throw out for you on the spur of the moment. I don't know, John, if you want throw it, if not we can get back to, Yair.

John Kurtzweil

Analyst · Yair Reiner from Oppenheimer & Co

What we had said is that it's going to go up a couple of million dollars this quarter, it goes up a little bit in the fourth quarter and then we expect to see it come back down again in the first half of calendar or fiscal 2012.

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Yair Reiner from Oppenheimer & Co

So the idea is, Yair, we'll still be investing in new product development and the other things. I think those incremental dollars associated with 150 will go away. I think on a percentage basis, we're probably running at the high-end up from a percentage range over the next couple of quarters, and I think what you'll see is that while the dollars may not, we may take some of those same dollars and invest them in new product development on a percentage basis, we should get some benefit here starting in the first half of fiscal '12. And it's really a function of when the 150-millimeter starts to convert from development into production. Yair Reiner - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.: And then going back to the Chip business for a moment. First of all, what is your exposure in that business now to LCD backlighting? And secondly, given the fact that a lot of capacity has come online, specifically for that application, what is your level of confidence that, that part of the business will come back when the LCD TV market presumably goes through its inventory correction?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Yair Reiner from Oppenheimer & Co

Yair, it's a pretty small percentage. I mean, it's way down there. I don't have a specific number for you. But I would tell you, we continue to, in some specific applications, we continue to work on new designs just because there are some places where our chip technology that has been developed from a lighting standpoint, adds some value and some of them are high-end applications or ones where they're trying to use a higher power LED. So our exposure is relatively small in the short term. I think there's still an opportunity for us to sell there as the market makes sense, and it's really a function of what happened to demand here, as we get into later in this year. Our current sense is that what we see as the industry's projecting, that backlighting demand starts to pick up, and although there is capacity out there, I wouldn't be surprised if later in the year, our backlighting percentage grows again a little bit just because of the market. Again, it's too hard to give you any specifics because we don't know yet but that wasn't surprising.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ahmar Zaman from Piper Jaffray.

Ahmar Zaman - Piper Jaffray Companies

Analyst · Ahmar Zaman from Piper Jaffray

I just wanted to know -- I don't know if you addressed this. I apologize if you did. Your accounts receivable, they also saw a big tickup in the quarter. Can you give us some color that?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Ahmar Zaman from Piper Jaffray

What was the question again?

Ahmar Zaman - Piper Jaffray Companies

Analyst · Ahmar Zaman from Piper Jaffray

Your accounts receivable?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Ahmar Zaman from Piper Jaffray

AR. What we had with AR, it was a little bit back-end loaded in the quarter than we have been in other quarters, where we had been pretty much on extended lead times. As lead times are coming in, the demand has shifted a little bit. So when we look at it overall, we don't see that there's much issues in terms of the collectability of that at all.

Ahmar Zaman - Piper Jaffray Companies

Analyst · Ahmar Zaman from Piper Jaffray

So you expect that to trend back down into the low 40s over the next two quarters?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Ahmar Zaman from Piper Jaffray

It should stay about the similar range in terms of days. I don't see much -- if it's coming down much right now.

Ahmar Zaman - Piper Jaffray Companies

Analyst · Ahmar Zaman from Piper Jaffray

And then just if I may, sort of bigger picture here, you've talked a lot about China and also some of the market. Looking outside of China as the cost of LEDs comes down, continues to come down, what are some of the other markets that you think will begin to open up for the LED lighting opportunity?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Ahmar Zaman from Piper Jaffray

Look, I think where we've been focused, what's driving the business today, is we know about streetlights, we know about LED bulbs, but what I think we're at the very early stages of the LED bulb application. Today, we're talking about a very premium product. I think as cost, not only cost comes down but as performance goes up, I think many people miss the fact that it's not just about a cheaper LED bulb. The reality is we need 60-watt and 100-watt equivalents and they need to work as good as a light bulb that's out there. And I think part of the reason I made my comment earlier about the product we've recently demonstrated, there is a 60-watt bulb you can go out that works just like the one you have today. It's just not out there yet. And after that, we've got 75, we've got 100 so there's a whole lot of innovation required to get the performance, so that the customer gets exactly what they expect. In parallel, we've got to do some things to make these bulbs more cost effective. So I think that's a big application and in the end, I think commercial indoor lighting, which has lots of self application, I think there's lots of opportunity there. And it's not just about costs. It's about products that work better or as good than what they have there in terms of like white quality and everything else. And so I think we're at the beginning. It's 4% of the market, I think there's lots of opportunity, but there's lots of work ahead of us.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Carter Shoop from Deutsche Bank.

Carter Shoop - Deutsche Bank AG

Analyst · Carter Shoop from Deutsche Bank

Given the attention around the Chinese street lighting opportunity, I was hoping for you all to help quantify this opportunity, both in regards to roughly how large it is for you today in the December quarter, or how large it was? And then how big could it be in the June quarter? And I know it's somewhat sensitive question but it didn't give us any kind of quantification there, I think that would be helpful given the heightened expectations around this market.

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Carter Shoop from Deutsche Bank

Yes, Carter. We don't break that out, so I'm not going to be able to give you a percentage. What I can tell you is that in total, the actual sales into that application actually declined in last quarter. So it is actually an application that had been growing pretty consistently. It is probably of all of our applications, I would say that streetlight, of all the different lighting applications is the largest. But I think it's more than that. If you add in bulb architectural, commercial indoor, you'd have to add into the portable and all those other ones to get to the full number. So it is the largest but it's not, I mean, it's not a lot larger than the other pieces. So it's important what would change for us is that it actually declined because of the inventory correction.

Carter Shoop - Deutsche Bank AG

Analyst · Carter Shoop from Deutsche Bank

Rough figures, could we think of it kind of being a 10% end market for the company? Is that like a reasonable way to think about it without giving away too much information?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Carter Shoop from Deutsche Bank

The answer is, we're not going to be able to break that specifics out.

Carter Shoop - Deutsche Bank AG

Analyst · Carter Shoop from Deutsche Bank

And then, can you discuss your level of confidence about a rebound here in the June quarter with this market?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Carter Shoop from Deutsche Bank

Right now, we know that the new specifications are out there, there are projects that are out for bid. It's a function of when they get bid and how fast that starts to happen. And so for us, I don't have -- I don't know yet. Right now, I think we'll know more as the quarter goes along. I think there's not a lot that's going to happen between now and Chinese New Year's. So we'll have to see what happens in this market as we get later in this quarter. I wish I have better visibility. I just don't. I think we understand the basic trend. We just don't understand the exact timing at this point.

Carter Shoop - Deutsche Bank AG

Analyst · Carter Shoop from Deutsche Bank

As a last question, when we think about the distribution channel, as we brought new products in the market and expanded into new geographies, we've obviously brought on new partners, be it manufacturing reps or distribution partners. Can you help us understand where we are in that process? What areas can we continue to build out? Are we signing on new distributors in emerging markets or is that build out largely complete?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Carter Shoop from Deutsche Bank

So look, our main distribution today is we have a pretty good Asian-based team. We've got a China team, we've got a U.S. and a Western Europe. I think there are emerging markets you'll see us invest in longer-term, that have not gotten a lot down there, we have a small presence there today. I think in terms of the distributors we're working with, we like the team we have. I think we may look for a very specialty people in some applications where we think we need some more specific access. I think more important for Cree is we've had great success in driving our direct business. And so we're looking for the things that are working there, how do we translate that to do more of that to help our direct business but also how do we bring that over to help drive demand on the distribution side. So we're working at both of those.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Gauna from GMP Securities.

Alex Gauna - JMP Securities LLC

Analyst · Alex Gauna from GMP Securities

Chuck, I was wondering if you could comment on some of this business that you anticipate coming back in June. There's been speculation out there that you got aggressive on the pricing front to win some of that business. All else being equal, is there another shoe to drop in terms of gross margin pressure out there? Or have we felt the new pricing level in the market?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Alex Gauna from GMP Securities

We've been aggressive for a few quarters right now. We've given you our targets for Q3. I think it's hard to give guidance for Q4 when it's going to be a function somewhat of what happens in demand, what happens in the other dynamics around the market. So I don't have great target for you there. I think right now, we're focused on how you increase the performance on one side that obviously gives us leverage, drive down the cost on the other side and drive up the demand. And we're going to work on all those but it would be premature for me to give you any guidance on Q4 targets right now.

Alex Gauna - JMP Securities LLC

Analyst · Alex Gauna from GMP Securities

One more question about Q4 though, you did say there isn't a solid 60-watt replacement, some of your key customers and I believe based on your technology, plan on having some of those 60-watt products out in the springtime. I'm wondering if you can comment on where you think price points are going to come out in that timeframe and where you think they need to go to really ignite that market?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Alex Gauna from GMP Securities

It's for the LED bulb applications, specifically?

Alex Gauna - JMP Securities LLC

Analyst · Alex Gauna from GMP Securities

Correct.

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Alex Gauna from GMP Securities

Today, I think, what we're seeing is that there's definitely been some, I think from what we see in the market, there's kind of two price points that the consumer level in North America, people have been having some success at. It's kind of a $20 and the $30, plus or minus. I think those are likely to be where people try to bring the new higher performance products. I think we'll probably see actually initially a little higher than that, but it seems that at least in that range, you start to get people interested. I think we're still talking about though really at this point, I think we're talking about a nice niche business. I think we've got a ways to go in terms of performance to get to all of the applications and I think long-term, those costs would have to come down further. I don't think any of us know exactly what those points are going to be, and I think what we're going to do is drive the technology to the point where we find out. But I don't have a crystal ball. I think the key is better performance, at those price points will be where people start and then we'll see where it goes from there.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Hans Mosesmann from Raymond James. Hans Mosesmann - Raymond James & Associates: Chuck, you guys said that your CapEx would come down from $300 million to $250 million or $260 million last quarter. Is it still in that $250 million, $260 million range?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Hans Mosesmann from Raymond James

It is. Hans Mosesmann - Raymond James & Associates: And then from the faster-expected ramp of 150-millimeter wafers, what's driving that? Is it the competitive dynamic? Is it -- why the sudden acceleration?

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · Hans Mosesmann from Raymond James

We laid out the goal to get it qualified by the end of Q4 for a ramp up in Q1 a couple of quarters ago. What's really happened is the timing of the R&D expense. So we're obviously doing process development, we're doing process qualification and tool qualification all at the same time. And so it's just as those things happen, the R&D team is focused on getting itself done, not trying to manage exactly to the budget. And frankly, it costs us a little more last quarter than what we had budgeted for. But I think it's still the right thing in terms of the long term.

Operator

Operator

And your last question comes from the line of Bill Ong from Merriman Capital. William Ong - Merriman Curhan Ford & Co.: Qualitatively, can you talk about how you first price your 4-inch wafers over 2-inch so I can get a sense of...

Operator

Operator

And at this time, there are no further questions.

Charles Swoboda

Analyst · JPMorgan

What I want to do is thank you at this time and thank you for your time today. We appreciate your interest and support and look forward to reporting our third quarter fiscal year 2011 results on April 19, 2011. Good night.

John Kurtzweil

Analyst · Steve Milunovich from the Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Good night. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.