John David Rainey
Analyst · Citigroup. Please proceed with your question
Thanks, Doug. Our first quarter performance demonstrates the strength of our business and the relevance of our omni strategy in the context of a highly dynamic backdrop. I'm pleased with the continued sales momentum across the company and it speaks to the competitive advantages that set us apart in the retail marketplace. Our commitment to delivering value and convenience to our customers is resonating more than ever. At the same time, we're driving progress in high growth areas like advertising, membership and marketplace services. Our April results were better than we had expected, particularly in Walmart U.S. Sales across segments improved as the quarter progressed, including strong Easter seasonal events. And our teams did a nice job managing inventory and controllable expenses, leading to a stronger than forecasted performance in both gross profit and SG&A. Consolidated revenue increased 4% in constant currency, despite lapping last year's leap day, driven by strong growth in eCommerce of 22%. Currency headwinds reduced reported sales results by $2.4 billion or 150 basis points of growth. Walmart U.S. comp sales grew 4.5%, aided by strong eCommerce sales growth of 21%. Momentum in grocery sales continued with a mid-single digit comp and ongoing share gains. Health and wellness sales increased high-teens, reflecting higher prescription volumes and over the counter sales, while general merchandise sales declined slightly with softness in electronics, home products and sporting goods. We're focused on value and managing our relative price position, while also saving customers' time with our eCommerce options. In Walmart U.S., we have more than 5,000 price rollbacks across our assortment and we've seen private brand sales outperform with grocery private brand penetration, up 60 basis points versus last year. Our international business grew sales 7.8% in constant currency, reflecting strength in China and Flipkart. eCommerce was strong with double-digit growth across markets led by pickup and delivery in marketplace. We're increasing speed of delivery for customers. In international, items delivered same or next day increased by 35% with about 45% of those items delivered in under three hours. At Walmex, lapping last year's government stimulus payments, the Easter shift and some early quarter softness tied to a weaker and uncertain macro environment, led to slightly softer sales than anticipated. We're encouraged by the pickup in business more recently with sales back in line with our expectations. Sam's Club U.S. comp sales ex-fuel increased nearly 7% with strong growth in transactions, including strength in Member's Mark. eCommerce grew 27% led by triple-digit growth in Club fulfilled delivery and double-digit growth in pickup. Members value the convenience of Scan & Go, and their usage of this tool continues to grow with penetration increasing 600 basis points versus last year. Over 50% of our members now transact digitally in some form with Sam's, online or using digital solutions in Club. From a margin standpoint, consolidated gross margin increased 12 basis points due to better than expected results at Walmart U.S., partially offset by lower than expected results in international, which saw increased pressure from channel and format mix changes. Gross margins in Walmart U.S. increased 25 basis points, reflecting continued disciplined inventory management, including a lower level of markdowns and improvements in business mix that have offset increased pressure from merchandise category mix. As our business model evolves, contributions to profitability are increasingly influenced by a diverse set of drivers, including improved eCommerce economics and business mix. We achieved eCommerce profitability, both in the U.S. as well as for the global enterprise in Q1 for the first time, an important milestone for our company. In the U.S., eCommerce net delivery costs have declined as we've continued to densify our last-mile deliveries and as customers pay fees for faster delivery. Business mix, most notably from higher-margin areas like advertising and membership fees also contributed to the improvement in Q1 profitability. Our advertising business across markets increased 50%, including VIZIO. Walmart Connect in the U.S., which doesn't include VIZIO, grew 31%. Sam's Club U.S. ad business was up 21%, and we saw 20% growth in our international markets led by Flipkart. Membership fee income was up nearly 15% across the enterprise. In the U.S., Sam's Club continued to see steady growth in member counts, renewal rates, and increased penetration of plus members, resulting in membership income growth of 9.6%, while Walmart+ membership income grew double-digits. Within International, membership income from Sam's Club China grew more than 40% as member counts continue to increase. SG&A expenses deleveraged 6 basis points, including the benefit from lapping last year's business reorganization cost. As expected, International and Sam's Club U.S. expense deleverage reflects planned investments in associate wages. Walmart U.S. deleverage reflected increased depreciation expense as well as VIZIO operating cost post-acquisition. As we previewed at our Investor Day, we experienced higher-than-expected casualty claims expense. We're accruing a higher rate for claims cost based on the industry trends that point to higher risk adjustment factors. We expect this trend to persist for at least a few quarters. Adjusted operating income was better than expected with growth of 3% in constant currency and adjusted EPS of $0.61 was higher than our guided range. Importantly, our inventory is at a healthy level, up 3.8%. That's obviously as important as ever as we head into a tariff-impacted period where cost pressures will impact item pricing and make it more challenging to anticipate demand by item. This is a highly fluid situation and we'll need to manage quantity decisions as we measure the price elasticity of impacted items. I'm grateful that we have a team of experienced merchants, various levers we can pull, and the tools available to manage this in a thoughtful and proactive way. Our cash position provides the flexibility we need to lean into opportunities to grow share, while also continuing to invest in areas with long-term strategic value, such as supply chain automation, store growth, remodels, and tech. In April, we completed an approximately $4 billion debt issuance at attractive terms. We continue to expect FY '26 CapEx to be in the range of 3% to 3.5% of sales. During Q1, we repurchased $4.6 billion in stock, an amount equivalent to our share repurchases for the entire year last year. We have a lot of confidence in our business, and we'll continue to be opportunistic with buybacks if share price dislocations occur. Now, turning to guidance. As a matter of practice, we provide an update on our full-year outlook at the end of the second quarter, if appropriate. But I'd like to give some color on how we're thinking about the impact from tariffs. I want to start with reiterating our message from our Investor Day in early April. We have a lot of confidence in our strategy, and there is nothing about this current period that makes us feel differently about anything we've previously said about our long-term financial framework to grow annual sales about 4% and operating income faster than sales. We've seen during periods of economic uncertainty in the past, we tend to gain share and come out of the other side in an even stronger position. We expect this period to be no different. We'll play offense and may opportunistically invest in areas to improve our value proposition. But we're not fully immune from the financial impacts in the short term. We've done work internally to model various scenarios related to the ongoing trade policy discussions. These scenarios involve making assumptions about how long tariffs persist at certain levels versus coming down to some lower level once bilateral trade deals are completed. We also must make assumptions about the elasticity of demand as well as the overall macro backdrop in this environment. Perhaps it's obvious, but worth stating. The range of possible outcomes is much greater than when we originally provided our annual guidance. That said, in what we believe are the most likely scenarios that we've modeled, we still have the ability to achieve our full-year guidance for both sales and operating income. These scenarios involve the belief that trade policy discussions will result in bilateral agreements, agreements in principle for the existence of good faith discussions moving toward agreements that could result in tariff levels lower than those initially proposed in early April. However, if we see a restoration of dramatically higher tariff levels, the impact on our financials could be significant and even jeopardize our ability to grow earnings year-over-year. In any case, we're comfortable with our ability to grow sales in the range we've guided for the year, though the mix of AUR versus units may be much different in these scenarios. While the swings from quarter-to-quarter could be large, we still think we can achieve our operating income guidance for the year, given what we know and our assumptions that I referenced. Should more progress on-trade in the next several weeks be favorable, there could be upside. If elevated tariffs remain in place for an elongated period, there would be downside risk. We will know a lot more in a couple of months, but we are equipped to manage this as well or better than other retailers. Turning to the second quarter. The operating environment is highly fluid and it makes the very near-term exceedingly difficult to forecast. The level and speed at which tariff impacted prices could go up is more extreme than in normal periods. The U.S. is by far our number one market for sourcing. For the less than a third of what we sell in the U.S. that's imported, China, Mexico, Canada, Vietnam, and India are our largest markets. As Doug noted, we're encouraged by the recent trade negotiations, especially concerning China. The level of tariffs that result from those discussions and the timing of when they ultimately become final may cause larger swings in our financial performance from one quarter to the next. Moreover, there are two specific accounting methods that make these swings more difficult to forecast. I want to take the time to explain these because they may impact the second and future quarters, given cost pressures caused by tariffs. The first relates to our method of accounting for the cost of inventory for the majority of our U.S. business, the Retail Inventory Method or RIM for short. We've always used RIM in Walmart U.S. It's not new for us, and it's a common method of accounting in the retail industry. RIM accounting implies a ratio of the actual cost of the inventory to its retail price to calculate ending inventory and therefore, derive cost of goods sold. As prices go up, this can result in the potential for markups on our inventory and increased merchandise margin gains relative to periods of more constant price levels. To the extent that later markdowns need to be recorded, it can have an offsetting effect. The magnitude of these swings, both positive and negative, given the level of additional costs that could be applied to the inventory that we're purchasing right now are unprecedented in our business and could result in swings in margin and earnings by quarter. The second is the possibility of LIFO-related charges as prices go up, which we experienced in Sam's Club U.S. during a sustained inflationary period in FY '24. We currently expect that sales growth on a constant currency basis will be in the range of 3.5% to 4.5% for the second quarter, though the composition of sales through AUR versus units may be different than what we expect today. Notably, if current exchange rates were to stay where they are right now for the entire second quarter, we would expect a headwind of approximately 120 basis points to reported sales growth. For operating income, the range of outcomes for the quarter is much wider. The information related to the trade discussions taking place is changing by the week and in some cases by the day. Importantly, we also want to provide flexibility for us to play offense in this environment. And lastly, our method of accounting for inventory could have a larger impact on our earnings than in normal quarters. For these reasons, the range of outcomes for the quarter is so wide that it would be impractical to provide a range of operating income guidance that investors could credibly rely upon. I want to encourage you to think about the next couple of quarters in the aggregate. We may experience larger gains related to markups in the second quarter, and some of those may be offset by markdowns in the third and fourth quarters. This is why we've underscored the importance of managing inventory well in this environment. In total, though, we believe that we can still achieve our operating income guidance for the year. In closing, as we look ahead, while operating conditions are expected to remain dynamic, our strategy is clear. Our top line momentum is strong, and we're flexing into our advantages to protect margins as we grow. History tells us that when we lean into these times of economic uncertainty, we emerge on the other side as a stronger company. We expect this time to be no different. We appreciate your interest in our company, and are now ready to take your questions.