Earnings Labs

Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Fri, May 6, 2016

$27.92

-3.05%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to Warner Music Group's second quarter earnings call for the period ended March 31, 2016. At the request of Warner Music Group, today's call is being recorded for replay purposes, and if you object, you may disconnect at any time. [Operator Instructions] Now I would like to turn today's call over to your host, Mr. James Steven, Executive Vice President, Communications and Marketing. You may begin.

James Steven

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Warner Music Group's Fiscal Second Quarter Conference Call. Both our earnings press release and the Form 10-Q we filed this morning are available on our website. Today, our CEO, Steve Cooper, will update you on our business performance and strategy. Our Executive Vice President and CFO, Eric Levin, will discuss our financial condition and results. And then we will take your questions. Before Steve's comments, let me remind you that this communication includes forward-looking statements that reflect the current views of Warner Music Group about future events and financial performance. All forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we disclaim any duty to update such statements. Our expectations, beliefs and projections are expressed in good faith, and we believe there is a reasonable basis for them. However, there can be no assurance that management's expectations, beliefs and projections will result or be achieved. Investors should not rely on forward-looking statements because they are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors that can cause actual results that differ materially from our expectations. Information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in our earnings press release, our Form 10-Q and Form 10-K and other SEC filings. We plan to present certain non-GAAP results during this conference call. We have provided schedules reconciling these results to our GAAP results in our earnings press release posted on our website. Also, please note that all revenue figures and comparisons discussed today will be presented in constant currency unless otherwise noted. With that, let me turn it over to Steve Cooper.

Stephen Cooper

Analyst

Good morning, everyone, or good evening, depending on where you are in the world. I'm currently in Beijing, where it's 8:30 at night. I'm traveling with Stu Bergen, our CEO of International and Global Commercial Services; and Simon Robson, our President of Warner Music Asia. We're visiting cities across the region, and it's incredibly exciting to see how our business is thriving here. As I am out of the office, I will keep my remarks relatively brief. And Eric will handle Q&A. I'm very happy to report another excellent set of quarterly results. We grew our total revenue by 13%, digital revenue by 25% and OIBDA by 5%. Given the effect that currency has had on our numbers over the last several quarters, I'm pleased to say that, this quarter, we grew our revenue by a very healthy 10% on an as-reported basis. In addition, industry publication Music & Copyright recently posted its calculation of 2015 market share data. We have the largest recorded music share gain of the 3 majors, rising to 17.1%, up from 16.7% in '14 and 15.8% in '13. This success is driven by our focus on 3 strategic priorities, and I'd like to update you on each of these now. First, we remain committed to generating a strong and consistent flow of new music. I'm pleased to say that on IFPI's global music charts for 2015, our artists scored 5 of the top 10 singles, more than any other company; as well as 2 of the top 10 albums. Great music is our lifeblood, and breaking new artists is paramount to our success. The latest example of our artist development strategy at work is the Danish band Lukas Graham. Signed to Warner Bros. Records and Warner/Chappell publishing, the band notched 5 straight weeks on top…

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Thank you, Steve. And good morning, everyone. Our robust results were fueled by a strong flow of new music and outstanding global execution. Our financial improvement is allowing for deleveraging. And I'm pleased that, during the quarter, we paid down an additional $25 million in debt beyond the $50 million in holdco notes that we spoke about in February. More on that shortly. Let's start with details on our second quarter performance. Total revenue growth of 13% was impressive, coming on top of 13% growth in the prior year quarter. Although currency was a factor, it was more modest than in recent quarters, impacting top line growth by only 3 percentage points. I am pleased the revenue grew 10% on an as-reported basis. From an OIBDA perspective, certain adjustments are necessary to make the year-over-year comparisons more meaningful. The details are in our press release, but this quarter, we had $2 million in nonrecurring expenses versus $4 million in the prior year quarter. Adjusted OIBDA, which excludes nonrecurring expenses, rose 3% to $129 million. Adjusted OIBDA margin declined 1.2 percentage points to 17.3%. The decline was due to revenue mix. In the prior year quarter, our margin benefited significantly from the impact of a large initial PLG neighboring rights distribution. In addition, in this quarter, we had higher revenue from constant promotion, which tends to be low margin. Recorded Music was up a meaningful 13%. Digital revenue increased 23%, driven by growth in streaming. Physical revenue was flat, reflecting a downward industry trend that was offset by our strong new releases and catalog sales. Licensing revenue declined 18%. As anticipated, we had a challenging comparison with the prior year quarter, where we benefited significantly from the neighboring rights distribution that I just mentioned. Artist rights -- artist services and expanded…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Aaron Watts with Deutsche Bank.

Aaron Watts

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

I have a couple. I wanted to start on the publishing side of the house, certainly saw a nice uptick from the trends over the last few quarters. Can you maybe you talk a little more what was driving that? Is it the flow-through of better blocking and tackling with the management changes? Or what else might have been underlying the nice increase?

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Sure, happy to. And thank you, Aaron. I think I would point to 2 things, Aaron. I'd -- you actually hit it nicely already. So one obviously is we do have a new CEO and a new CFO. Jon Platt, our new CEO, is -- an extraordinary executive with a great history in A&R. His ability to recruit talent. His ability to work with talent and help put them into the right products and build the right A&R team around him globally is clearly something we're excited about. As you also see in these results, our digital revenue grew 44% in publishing. And often, what you see in publishing is that the revenue trends happen with a bit of a lag, often because money flows through societies around the world. So obviously, as a quarter, we were seeing significantly increased gains or rate of growth in digital. We'll keep a close eye on that to see if it continues at this level, but it's not a surprise to us that digital is starting to show an increased rate of growth in publishing.

Aaron Watts

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay, got it. And I apologize if I missed this but just wanted to make sure I had the number right. On the neighboring rights income you had in the prior year quarter, how much was that exactly?

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

It was in the range of -- the revenue was somewhere in the low tens, with a very high margin. And so when you pull that -- low tens meaning starting with a 1, so in the teens, if you will, at a very high margin. So if you pull that out -- and you should also note that in artist services in this quarter, versus a year ago, we had higher revenue from French touring activity, and that is lower revenue. So those 2 adjustments, if you make those adjustments, our actual margins remained quite stable and our OIBDA increase was quite healthy on the core underlying business.

Aaron Watts

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Got it, okay. And yes, on the capital structure, you bought back some bonds in the open market. What was your thinking there in terms of the timing? Do you think there might be opportunities for further kind of open-market purchases? Curious, your thought process around that.

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Well, the 6.75% notes that we bought back aren't callable yet at this point. We had -- it's an opportunistic purchase. It was favorable pricing. We continue to be opportunistic. Obviously, our focus is fairly steady. We focus first on driving revenue and OIBDA growth, working hard to convert that into free cash flow. And we continue to look at whether we invest in growth in the business and explore opportunities there or pay down debt. I think what we've shown this quarter is our seriousness of purpose with which we are evaluating paying down debt. The 6.75% note purchase was really based on an opportunistic purchase at a favorable price.

Aaron Watts

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay. And I think I've been reading about a little bit of movement at long last on you divesting some of your assets to independent labels. Any update you have yet on in terms of when proceeds might start coming in for that and whether it would kind of be lump-sum type payments or they're going to be spread out over time?

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

So it's still in active negotiations, so we really can't comment too much on it. What we can say is that we're making steady progress. And then when there's something that we can -- once this is a completed transaction, we'll make sure we communicate quickly and clearly what the impact is.

Aaron Watts

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay. All right, last two from me, a little bit bigger picture. I guess, first, when I think about -- when we read about how some of the contracts come up from time to time with various streaming outlets, a large video site comes to mind. Can you just comment how long the contracts typically are when you strike them for streaming? And is it your expectation that -- when these contracts come up for renewal, that there is material price increases to be had by you given the growing popularity?

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Well, I would say the contracts with streaming services differ. They range generally in a range from 1 to 3 years. We're in active negotiations, obviously, with some, so we don't comment on active negotiations. We work very hard to make sure we monetize each platform as effective as we can both for ourselves and our artists.

Aaron Watts

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay. And last one, and again, appreciate the time. Maybe given where Stephen is right now, and I think you mentioned your optimism of being able to grow in some of these international markets, can you just make some broad-stroke comments about where streaming growth is at maybe in Asia, in Europe relative to the U.S.? And how is that impacting piracy to the extent piracy was a big issue in some of those markets in past days?

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

All right. I get 3 part of the question, okay. So it's streaming is at really different phases almost country by country even within regions. And you can look at a market like Japan, which is still 75% physical and until last year really didn't have any material streaming. And the market was in decline, in large part because of those dynamics. Streaming hasn't launched in Japan. Last year, it was a market that was quite stable actually and technically in '15 had some growth about 2% or 3%. So streaming in a lot of these markets that have been traditionally physical. And you can look at a Germany, a France. I mean this is throughout many big markets in the world. Streaming is growing at great rates and allowing these markets to regain a healthy platform. IFPI for 2015 recently released their results showing a 3% growth of the global music market overall, and that's been an extraordinary support for this. So every market is different, but streaming is growing globally, both helping emerging markets regain a footing but also some of these markets that are historically physical, as I mentioned before, grow too. With respect to piracy, look, there's multiple ways to talk to you about it. Obviously, we and our trade associations are pretty diligent and -- at looking at where there are significant pirates and making sure that we are addressing that and trying to make sure that they're not able to function freely. But streaming services, both because they have a great kind of product offering and value offering to consumer, we do think over time will continue to have a positive impact on combating piracy.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of David Farber of Crédit Suisse.

David Farber

Analyst

My questions have been asked and answered. Thanks.

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

And thank you. It's nice [indiscernible].

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Davis Hebert of Wells Fargo Securities.

Eric Fishel

Analyst · Davis Hebert of Wells Fargo Securities

This is Eric for Davis. You mentioned in your comments that margins were pressured during the quarter due to revenue mix. I'm wondering if you can just give a little more clarity there, especially given the success of streaming revenue during the quarter, which as I understand this is typically higher margin.

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst · Davis Hebert of Wells Fargo Securities

Sure, and a pleasure. And thank you for the question. We -- last year, in the second quarter, so 2015 second quarter, was the first time when the -- from our PLG acquisition were the European broadcast teams holding these neighboring rights were distributed and therefore recognized. So we had not just the ordinary-course broadcast fees recognized but actually a catch-up, so the comp versus last year was quite challenging. When you normalize for that, our margin growth year-over-year would have been -- or our OIBDA growth and margin growth would have been traditional healthy, showing that margin growth and OIBDA percentage growth that we would have expected. So it's really due to a challenging comp.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Michael McCaffery of Shenkman Capital.

Michael McCaffery

Analyst · Michael McCaffery of Shenkman Capital

I don't know if you mentioned this in your prepared remarks. I came on the call a few minutes late, but did -- could you just comment for fiscal 3Q and 4Q how the release schedule that you have planned right now compares to the year ago period just generically?

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst · Michael McCaffery of Shenkman Capital

Well, we think we have solid releases coming up. So Blake Shelton just released a single. He'll have an album coming up. Obviously, across the globe, we're going to have a series of strong albums: Lukas Graham's Blue Album; Deftones'; Sturgill Simpson's. So we believe our album lineup and our music lineup coming out, both albums and singles, by the way, Q3 and Q4 will be quite strong and quite solid. And again, our goal year-on-year is to continue to drive stronger and stronger music, and we think a lot of the data continues to support that. So Music & Copyright, which recently published market share data for 2015, we were at 17.1% global market share versus 16.7% in '14 and 15.8% in '13. So our continued strategy for an increased, continuous flow of music, we believe, is paying dividends and we believe will continue to do so going forward.

Michael McCaffery

Analyst · Michael McCaffery of Shenkman Capital

And can I just ask a follow-up from a question Aaron asked about your decision to go after the -- use some of your capital to go after the 6.75% opco bonds? Why -- obviously, they were turning at a pretty nice discount earlier in the quarter, but I guess, at this point in time, as you look at your options, that bond versus just calling the remainder of the holdco notes, how are you thinking about that at this point, with use of excess free cash flow?

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst · Michael McCaffery of Shenkman Capital

Well, so we kind of -- we're opportunistic. We were able to purchase these back at a favorable price. And it was really based on the price availability.

Michael McCaffery

Analyst · Michael McCaffery of Shenkman Capital

And I guess, just to extend on that: With the step-down on those holdco notes in October, are you -- is it fair to say you're probably more inclined to wait for that step-down before you take another action there?

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst · Michael McCaffery of Shenkman Capital

Well, we're -- we continue to look at our options to reduce debt across our capital structure. We don't really give guidance on timing of actions going forward, but we're aware of all the dynamics related to costs and certainly are taking them into serious consideration.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Karl Hermann of Babson Capital.

Karl Hermann

Analyst · Karl Hermann of Babson Capital

Just going back to Eric's question on the lower margin in the quarter and you guys talking about the PLG impact. Is there -- can you quantify that PLG catch-up that occurred in the second quarter of the prior year?

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst · Karl Hermann of Babson Capital

Yes. Well, the revenue from the PLG catch-up a year ago was more than $10 million, and that's very high-margin revenue. And so we would say there are 2 dynamics, that being the challenge from last year that made a tough comp. And this year, we had improved revenue in our artist services from a European concert tour, Johnny Hallyday to be specific, in France, which is low margin. So if you extract those pieces, again the OIBDA growth and margin stability across periods would be what we would exactly and traditionally expect.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions in queue at this time. I turn the call back to the presenters.

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay, thanks, everyone. And we appreciate you joining the call and taking time with us today. And we look forward to speaking to everyone with our third quarter results this summer. Have a happy summer, by the way. And good morning. Bye-bye.

Operator

Operator

And this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.