Earnings Labs

Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 6, 2015

$27.88

-0.39%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.
Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to Warner Music Group's Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Call for the period ended June 30, 2015. At the request of Warner Music Group, today's call is being recorded for replay purposes, and if you object, you may disconnect at any time. [Operator Instructions] Now I would like to turn today's call over to your host, Mr. James Steven, Executive Vice President, Communications and Marketing. Sir, you may begin. Thank you.

James Steven

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Warner Music Group's Fiscal Third Quarter 2015 Conference Call. Both our earnings press release and Form 10-Q we filed this morning are available on our website. Today, our CEO, Steve Cooper, will update you on our business performance and strategy; our Executive Vice President and CFO, Eric Levin, will discuss our financial conditions and results, and then both of them will take your questions. Before Steve's comments, let me remind you that this communication includes forward-looking statements that reflect the current views of Warner Music Group about future events and financial performance. All forward-looking statements are made as of today and we disclaim any duty to update such statements. Our expectations, beliefs and projections are expressed in good faith, and we believe there is a reasonable basis for them. However, there can be no assurance that management's expectations, beliefs and projections will result or be achieved. Investors should not rely on forward-looking statements because they are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors that can cause actual results that differ materially from our expectations. Information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in our earnings press release and Form 10-Q and other SEC filings. We plan to present certain non-GAAP results during this conference call. We have provided schedules reconciling these results to our GAAP results in our earnings press release posted on our website. Also, please note that all revenue figures and comparisons discussed today will be presented in constant currency, unless otherwise noted. With that, let me turn it over to Steve Cooper.

Stephen Cooper

Analyst · Mr. Aaron Watts of Deutsche Bank

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. The third quarter was a busy and exciting one, ongoing growth in our streaming revenue, a wide array of our great music from our artists and songwriters and first-class execution by our teams around the world all contributed to a successful 3 months. Total revenue declined slightly by 0.7%. Total digital revenue grew 4% and OIBDA increased 52% to $100 million due in large part to significantly lower PLG and headquarters move-related costs in the quarter. Eric will go into more detail on our OIBDA performance later in this call. It's important to note that our revenues were nearly flat despite the tough comparison against the third quarter of 2014, our strongest quarter of last year where our revenue grew nearly 17% year-over-year. I'm pleased that for fiscal year-to-date, revenue is up 6% and OIBDA is up 39%. With 3 quarters of the year now behind us, we're confident that we are on track to grow again this year. I'd like to provide some context for our results and explain how they are being driven by our strategic priorities. First, we are committed to delivering a strong, consistent flow of recorded music releases. Our 17% revenue growth in last year's third quarter could be attributed in large part to a handful of big global albums. This quarter, roughly comparable revenue was driven by a broader mix of music across many different genres and from both established and emerging artists. Having a more efficiently managed release schedule is one of our key priorities especially in the streaming age. Second, we are focused on delivering sustained growth on a truly global basis, not just in the U.S. and U.K. and not just with Anglo-American repertoire. Since our acquisition of Parlophone, we've been aggressively investing…

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst · Mr. Aaron Watts of Deutsche Bank

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Our third quarter results are encouraging, especially against the backdrop of our industry's ongoing transformation. Excellent new releases, robust carryover sales and strong streaming growth meant that total revenue declined just 0.7% despite a tough comparison with the prior year quarter. Foreign exchange was also a significant factor in the quarter with total revenue down 10% on an as-reported basis. From an OIBDA perspective, certain adjustments are necessary to make meaningful year-over-year comparisons more meaningful. We have highlighted these in our press release, but let me walk you through them. In the quarter, we had $1 million in PLG-related expenses, which is down significantly from $33 million in the prior year quarter. There were no costs related to our headquarters move versus a $10 million expense in the prior year quarter and $2 million in expense related to other cost savings initiatives versus none in the prior year quarter. Backing these items out, we saw a 5.5% decline in adjusted OIBDA to $103 million, impacted by the as-reported revenue decline. However, adjusted OIBDA margin improved by 0.7 percentage points to 14.5%, driven by revenue mix and ongoing cost containment initiatives. We still expect our cost containment program to yield $20 million in ongoing savings this fiscal year with $15 million realized to date and all actions now fully implemented. In Recorded Music, revenue declined modestly by 0.7%. The largest contributors to revenue this quarter were new releases from Muse, Josh Groban and Superfly, as well as carryover activity from the Furious 7 Soundtrack and Ed Sheeran's x. Physical revenue declined 12%, in part driven by the comparison to the prior year release schedule, which included physical-centric albums from Coldplay and Linkin Park. Digital revenue remains a highlight, rising 5%, reflecting strong growth in…

Operator

Operator

We have one question from the line of Mr. Aaron Watts of Deutsche Bank.

Aaron Watts

Analyst · Mr. Aaron Watts of Deutsche Bank

One quick question, Steve, and I think you touched on some of the releases you're looking forward to. Generally speaking, though, in terms of the cadence for the rest of the calendar year, would you -- how would you compare what you see on the release slate horizon for the next several months versus last year to close out the year?

Stephen Cooper

Analyst · Mr. Aaron Watts of Deutsche Bank

Well, I think we got a very nice schedule for the fourth quarter, not only with our Anglo-American repertoire but globally. And we always look to the first quarter of our fiscal year as a, historically, a quarter where we want a very robust release schedule, Aaron, and that continues to be one of our operating strategies.

Aaron Watts

Analyst · Mr. Aaron Watts of Deutsche Bank

Okay. And curious, overnight saw that Apple talked about having 11 million people signed up for their music service. I'm just curious how that number might compare to what you were expecting and any thoughts on whether the conversion rate for Apple could potentially be better than what we have seen elsewhere?

Stephen Cooper

Analyst · Mr. Aaron Watts of Deutsche Bank

Well, we didn't -- or I didn't have any particular expectation for Apple by way of numbers. I think that all of us at Warner thought it was a great step forward for streaming that Apple was getting into the streaming business. They have enormous consumer reach globally. They have, I guess, 800 million credit cards on file and to have more than 1% of those try this within a matter of a couple of weeks I think is very good momentum. We're waiting to see, obviously, what the conversion rate is after the free trials. And our expectation is that, with Apple, we would expect to see a nice conversion rate. But I don't want to speculate as to what we would hope that would be, Aaron, because I know 2 things for sure: I'll either be high or low, but I won't be right on target.

Aaron Watts

Analyst · Mr. Aaron Watts of Deutsche Bank

Fair enough. One quick housekeeping question. I know you mentioned the payment coming from Sirius. Have you quantified that, at least publicly, what your portion of the settlement will be?

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst · Mr. Aaron Watts of Deutsche Bank

Aaron, it's Eric. It's -- there's a process that is just beginning now where we have to work with the other plaintiffs on a methodology for distribution. So that process is starting, it will take some time. We're certainly expect to get our fair share, but that's a process that is undergoing as we speak.

Aaron Watts

Analyst · Mr. Aaron Watts of Deutsche Bank

Okay. And 2 more if I could. Again, I appreciate you taking this. These are a little bit bigger picture. But there's been a lot of momentum for you on the publishing side of the house, a lot of good things happening there. Can you talk about whether some of the changes being implemented or moves that have been made in new leadership, has that given you any better synergies with artists on the recorded side? I know those 2 entities haven't necessarily been tied in the past, but can you speak to how some of the changes on publishing are impacting your ability to attract artists on the recording [indiscernible]?

Stephen Cooper

Analyst · Mr. Aaron Watts of Deutsche Bank

Sure. Well, first of all, just to be crystal clear between Cameron Strang and Jon Platt and our other colleagues at Warner/Chappell, I think we've got the best leadership in the Music Publishing business. What we see is that there are synergies when we attract and sign great songwriters. They oftentimes also become great performing artists and that's happened historically and it continues to happen. We also, as I think we've mentioned, over the last couple of years, Aaron, we run the Warner Music Group as one company. And so we do whatever we can to create synergies between our Publishing side of the business and our Recorded Music side of the business, including bringing our songwriters together with our recording artists. It's been something that we have done historically and that we will continue to do in the future. So the answer is yes. We do see synergies. We see both current and ongoing opportunities to bring both sides of the house together on a regular basis to create great music. And we see on a regular basis the evolution of our songwriters into great performing artists and it's working beautifully.

Aaron Watts

Analyst · Mr. Aaron Watts of Deutsche Bank

It's good to hear. Last question for me. And I get this question sometimes from investors, too, but as we think about areas that are still a little bit heavier weighted to physical consumption, how does streaming, the advent of streaming, make a digital transition in those areas more smooth and perhaps what we experienced here if just what you're seeing in another geographies and how you think that plays out as ultimately physical does get phased out?

Stephen Cooper

Analyst · Mr. Aaron Watts of Deutsche Bank

Well, let's not shoot physical quite so quickly. If we look at our business around the world, both physical and its digital analog downloads still represents, despite the growth of streaming, an enormous amount of business and there are both markets, as well as collectors, that I believe will continue to give us a very long tail albeit declining with respect to physical and I think to a certain extent downloads. There are still people that prefer to own as opposed to rent, so to speak. What we do see is that streaming is taking hold with a little more predictability around its growth rate in any number of physically-oriented markets such as Japan, Germany -- some of the other -- those are the two that are -- that occur to me off the top of my head. And while that growth is becoming more predictable, physical in many respects and downloads are still holding their own. So what I expect is an ongoing adoption of streaming, but an adoption that has a less steep growth slope, if you will, Aaron, in those sort of the markets. In the meantime, while it is still a small but growing part of our business, just to get it said, our vinyl business is up some 50-odd-percent this year. And we continue to see and expect very good future growth in that particular niche.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from the line of David Farber of Crédit Suisse.

David Farber

Analyst

I had a couple follow-up questions. First, I just wanted to ask you guys housekeeping-related, do you have sort of EBITDA for the quarter, FX-neutral for us? I know you gave us revenue, but I wasn't sure what was the flow through in that. So do you have that just offhand?

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst · Mr. Aaron Watts of Deutsche Bank

It's not a number we publicly report. Our OIBDA is obviously up 52% and on an as-reported basis. But with strengthening of the U.S. dollar, particularly euro, obviously there is some impact on as-reported results. That said, even in a dollar -- even in the quarter where the dollar strengthened significantly against other currencies, the impact of OIBDA wasn't material. Much of our expenses are in local markets where our revenue occurs so we have a natural hedge. And the OIBDA impact is not that material.

David Farber

Analyst

Okay, that makes -- that's helpful. Just -- there continues to be a lot of moving pieces, I think, in some of the terrestrial radio on sort of the royalty side of the house. So I was just curious, maybe an update if you guys envision any scenarios where you think terrestrial radio will start paying royalties in any way, shape or form; if there is anything on the regulatory side that you see that could help us think about in the quarter. And then I have a couple of follow-ups.

Stephen Cooper

Analyst · Mr. Aaron Watts of Deutsche Bank

Well, in the Fair Pay, Fair Play Act (sic) [Fair Play, Fair Pay Act], there is -- there are provisions for the payment of terrestrial royalties, David. So I guess while we are hopeful, the fact of the matter is that we -- the recorded side of the business has been pursuing us for a long time. And while it's nice to see that it's come up again, we'll have to see how the act or the proposed act plays out and what traction it does or doesn't get, frankly. Look, the good news so is that we're beginning to see a real stabilization of the revenue curve in the industry and growth in other areas. So that while we would always welcome additional monetization, the good news is that with the growth in streaming, with the kind of flattening of the curve in the download, decline in physical, the business looks like it's stabilizing.

David Farber

Analyst

Okay. And then, just finally, I was a bit surprised to see the OIBDA and covenant EBITDA have sort of a continued gap. I was curious sort of when you'll think you'll see that -- those numbers sort of shift. So specifically sort of seeing the LTM or reported adjusted OIBDA compared with the covenant EBITDA, when do you think those numbers will start looking more of the same? And when do you think that will get reflected more in the income statement versus sort of a pro forma adjustment? That would be helpful.

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst · Mr. Aaron Watts of Deutsche Bank

Well, obviously, the pro forma EBITDA reflects add-backs that are largely onetime or noncash items, such as severance, restructuring from PLG, integration and are presented in a pro forma basis as if the add-backs are realized on an LTM basis. As PLG flows through, that portion will start to come off and you will see that start to close the gap, as you said. Note that, as we look at programs such as -- discrete programs such as cost containment, the cost related to that will be in. And so those things are things that we continue to evaluate going forward. But other than that, you will see the PLG part start to wash through.

Operator

Operator

Okay, thank you. As of this moment, we don't have questions in queue.

Stephen Cooper

Analyst · Mr. Aaron Watts of Deutsche Bank

Great. Thanks for your time today, everyone. I hope you all enjoy what's left of this summer, and we'll talk to you again soon. Bye-bye.

Operator

Operator

And that concludes today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may now all disconnect.