David P. Steiner
Analyst · Al Kaschalk with Wedbush Securities
Yes, absolutely. And you're absolutely right when you talk about the margins. I think everybody that's followed this business since I took over as CEO knows that one of the core fundamental metrics that we focus on at this company is expanding our margins. And so it's absolutely frustrating to see them going backwards. I would say a couple of things. First, just when you start to make some progress on the cost side and you start to see progress on the volume side, you see the commodity side go backwards. So of the 150 basis points of margin deterioration, 100 of it is from waste-to-energy and recycling. Pure, simple commodity prices, not a heck of a lot we can do about that if we want to stay in those businesses. And increasingly, recycling is a business that you have to have in order to meet customer needs on the solid waste side. So of the 150 basis points, 100 basis point slides out the door right there. Another 70 basis points slide out the door with the Oakleaf acquisition, because until we fully monetize that -- basically, what's going on right now is we want to keep that third-party vendor network together so that we can increase landfill volumes and let them maintain the collection volumes. But that takes a lot of negotiations with a lot of vendors. And that's not going to happen until sort of the third quarter of this year. So it's been a little slower integrating those folks, frankly, than we had expected. But you basically got very low-margin brokerage business that we're maintaining because we don't want to put that volume on our trucks. We want to put it into the third-party vendor network as long as that third-party vendor network brings volumes to our landfills, where we get higher margins. So that's 170 basis points right there between commodity prices and Oakleaf. If you don't have that, you've got positive margins. And then you got another 20 basis points of fuel. Again, not a heck of a lot we can do there, but we -- our revenue goes up because fuel goes up, but it doesn't have a dramatic effect on our earnings because of the fuel surcharge. And so you got 190 basis points, a little over it when you round them up, basically 200 basis points of margin deterioration in areas that we can't do a heck of a lot about, without which, obviously, we would have a nice expansion of margin. So look, at some point in time, we're looking to see all this stuff pull together and be positive. That some point in time is the back half of this year when we start to see the effects of the commodities turn positive and when we see the Oakleaf integration coming forward. Fuel, we can't do anything about, but as we start to see that, we should see the margin start to turn around again.