Kevin Feeley
Analyst · TD Cowen
Thanks, Mark, and good afternoon, everyone. Third quarter 2026 total revenues were $123.1 million, inclusive of $110.4 million of exome genome revenues, which is up $10 million sequentially. This sequential growth is the right frame for evaluating our trajectory, with continued growth and financial improvement. Adjusted gross margin expanded from 69% in Q1 to 70% in Q2 and 72% in Q3, and adjusted net income improved from an $8.2 million loss in Q1 to near break-even in Q2 to $8.6 million this quarter, two consecutive quarters of improvement with more to come. Our blended average reimbursement rate in the third quarter was $3,436, up 5% from $3,258 in the second quarter. We're guiding to another step up in Q4, and we believe the trajectory continues from there as our revenue cycle work matures. Last quarter, we shared key metrics across mix, coverage, and collection rate to track our ARR progress. Prior to walking through those, I'll just note that underlying like-for-like contract rates were relatively unchanged during the quarter. First on mix, within the portfolio, 92% of volume was outpatient insurance-based, with Medicaid, our largest payer segment, at 48%. Genome was 26% of outpatient insurance-based volume, down from 32% in Q2. This was purposeful mix management in the near term. While genome now carries a higher collection rate percentage, the average contracted rate and average reimbursement rate for exome is higher, so a shift between the two impacts our blended ARR. To be clear, the goal is not to minimize genome utilization. It is to find the right product fit for the right circumstance. As future product enhancements launch, we expect genome mix to rise again concurrently with our ability to improve unit economics. Notably, genome cost per test has come down 43% from last year, and that's a downward trajectory expected to continue. That said, genome COGS is still significantly higher than that of exome, and Mark's team has further validated our path to reduce genome cost per test by at least a few hundred dollars over the next several quarters. Two levers give us conviction here. The first, reagents, which is the gap between genome and exome. At this point, it makes up more than half of all COGS. Sequencing economics continue to improve across the industry, and as our volume scale, we expect to capture materially lower wet side input costs. Second, applying AI and ML to various dry side steps remains one of the most significant and largely untapped efficiency opportunities in this business. We're making real progress here, but expect it to be a more meaningful contributor to cost reduction in 2027 and beyond. Second, payer coverage has stayed relatively flat this quarter, with positive exome policies in place for 98% of commercial lives and positive genome coverage in place for 88%. Carelon expanded policy to approximately 56 million lives in June, and coverage expansion is beginning to show early signs of improved collections. Medicaid covers exome in 37 states and genome in 25, up from 23 states in Q2. Uplift impact in the near term from any policy change is gradual, as payers often, and sometimes intentionally, are slow to operationalize changes, but improved coverage is an important foundational catalyst for 2027 and beyond. Approximately 82% of our outpatient genome volume was submitted to payers with an active positive coverage policy, up from 67% last quarter, primarily a reflection of commercial plans following Carelon. As Mark described, where we see clear line of sight to improve performance is in matching to payer-by-payer specific criteria to benefit from the enhanced coverage. Finally, our underlying outpatient genome collection rate was 36% in Q3, up 400 basis points from 32% last quarter. We attribute that improvement to the nascent RCM workflows we put in place. What is most encouraging is that this improvement has happened without the AI-enabled payer-specific transformation we have planned, which is still being developed and implemented. The exome collection rate's approximately 32%, flat with Q2. Genome is our primary focus today, given its place in our future and the overall strength of exome's margin profile. Exome will be the next phase of our RCM work, and every point of improvement there supports faster growth. What makes all three of these levers scalable is the AI and technology transformation underway in our RCM stack. The transformation's progressing well, with strong leadership now in place. Think of Q2 as interrogating our RCM processes with third-party experts, Q3 as new leaders validating the plan and designing the future architecture, and Q4 and early 2027 as implementation and pull-through. Now, turning to guidance. As we prioritize profitable growth, we're raising full-year adjusted gross margin guidance to approximately 71% and adjusted net income guidance to at least $12 million, and reaffirming full-year revenue guidance of $475 million-$490 million. We expect revenue within that range, but at the low end. We are adjusting full-year exome and genome volume to at least 28%, and as a result, exome and genome revenue growth to at least 17%. For the fourth quarter, we expect ARR to improve to approximately $3,500 a test, adjusted gross margin of at least 71%, adjusted net income of approximately $12 million, total revenue of at least $135 million, and exome and genome revenue of $121 million on result volume of 34,500 tests. While we are not providing fiscal 2027 guidance on this call, I will address PAMA and put our exposure into context. Approximately 85% of total revenue is insurance-based. Within our insurance-based business, a little more than half of our contracts are tied to a percentage of the Clinical Lab Fee Schedule, or CLFS. Those rates move with CLFS and carry direct PAMA exposure. A little less than 1/2 has separately negotiated discrete fee schedules that are insulated from PAMA. Those contracts typically renew in a 1-to-3-year cycle, and we have good visibility into their stability. So with approximately 45% of our revenue subject to PAMA, we expect a mid-single-digit headwind to total 2027 revenue. I will underscore that improving revenue cycle collections and reducing COGS remain substantially larger opportunities for the business. The RCM tailwind in 2027 can more than offset PAMA in the year ahead, and improving collection rates and mix management mean that year-over-year ARR and revenue comparisons become progressively more favorable as we move through 2027. The business is performing better each quarter in revenue, margins, net income, and in the leading indicators that drive those results, and we expect that trajectory to continue. Aside from Q1's typical seasonality, a similar stacking of sequential revenue on top of today's base is expected in 2027, particularly as improved collections converge revenue and volume growth rates in 2027 and beyond. And with that, I will turn it back to Katherine.