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Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO)

Q3 2017 Earnings Call· Wed, Jun 21, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Winnebago Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today’s conference, Mr. Ashis Bhattacharya, Vice President of Strategic Planning and Business Development. Sir, please go ahead.

Ashis Bhattacharya

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us for Winnebago Industries’ conference call to review the company’s results for the fiscal 2017 third quarter, which ended on the May 27, 2017. I am joined on the call today by Michael Happe, President and Chief Executive Officer and Bryan Hughes, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. This call is being broadcast live on our website at investor.wgo.net and a replay of the call will be available on our website later today. The news release with our third quarter earnings results was issued and posted to our website earlier this morning. Before we start, I would like to remind you that certain statements made during today’s conference call regarding Winnebago Industries and its operations maybe considered forward-looking statements under securities laws. The company cautions you that forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and are inherently uncertain and a number of factors, many of which are beyond the company’s control, could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements. These factors are identified in our SEC filings, which I encourage you to read. With that said, I would now like to turn the call over to our President and CEO, Michael Happe. Mike?

Michael Happe

Analyst

Thank you, Ashish, and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us today. As we get started, I would like to take the opportunity to welcome Bryan Hughes to his first earnings call as the new Chief Financial Officer at Winnebago Industries. Bryan has been with Winnebago Industries for a little more than a month and we are very excited to have him on board. Bryan had an impressive two decade career at a fantastic public company in Ecolab and tremendous experience in helping that company to build a larger, more profitable, more diversified, and more valuable enterprise. We plan on leveraging Bryan’s experience as we look to do the same here at Winnebago Industries in the future. For those of you who have not had the opportunity to meet or speak with Bryan yet, I certainly encourage you to do so in the near future. I will begin this morning with an overview of key drivers for Winnebago’s fiscal 2017 third quarter and then turn the call over to Bryan to dive deeper into the specific financial results. We will then share some thoughts on our several important topics and some strategic plans going forward before we open the call to questions. During the third quarter, we continued to make good progress on our mission to transform Winnebago Industries into a larger, more balanced and more profitable outdoor lifestyle company. With the benefit of our expanded portfolio following the Grand Design acquisition last fall and continued strong organic towables growth from our Winnebago branded business, quarterly revenues increased 75% year-over-year to approximately $476 million. Consolidated revenues were essentially split evenly between the motorized and towables segments, reflecting our ongoing efforts to transform the RV portfolio into a full line business model and position the company to drive growth across…

Bryan Hughes

Analyst

Thanks Mike and good morning everyone. I will begin my comments by expressing how excited I am to be here this morning on my first earnings call as CFO of Winnebago Industries. And I am thrilled to be part of iconic company. Third quarter consolidated revenues were $476.4 million, an increase of 75% year-over-year driven primarily by the Grand Design acquisition and strong organic growth from our towable segment. Third quarter operating income was $34.9 million, up over 69% and net income was $19.4 million, an increase of 34%. In the quarter, we have recorded $10.2 million pretax of amortization expense associated with the Grand Design acquisition. Reported earnings per share was $0.61 per diluted share, an increase of 15% over our $0.53 EPS in Q3 of last year. For the first nine months of fiscal 2017, consolidated revenues were $1.092 billion, an increase of 53% over the prior year period, also driven substantially by the Grand Design acquisition. Operating income for the first nine months was $81.6 million, up 74% and net income was $46.4 million, an increase of 43% over the prior year period. Year-to-date, we have recorded $22.6 million pre-tax of amortization expense associated with the Grand Design acquisition. As illustrated in our consolidated statements of income, there were a few significant items related to Grand Design acquisition impacting our third quarter of fiscal 2017. First, additional transaction costs related to the acquisition were $500,000 or $0.01 per diluted share net of tax. Second, in repeating what I mentioned previously, amortization expenses related to the definite life intangible assets acquired were $10.2 million pre-tax in third quarter or $0.21 per diluted share net of tax. Beginning in the fiscal fourth quarter, we expect amortization expense will decline to approximately $2 million pre-tax per quarter through fiscal 2021.…

Michael Happe

Analyst

Thank you, Bryan. Before we turn to Q&A, I would like to cover a number of different topics, some pragmatic and some strategic in this closing section. First, the most popular question among analysts and investors alike continues to be how much more light is there in the upward part of the cycle. And Winnebago Industries and similar to many of our fellow stakeholders within the industry, we remain cautiously optimistic that there remains runway within this current industry cycle search. The macroeconomic conditions of the U.S. market, while not stellar are in fact still steady and favorable for selling RVs. Fuel prices, interest rates, consumer confidence, the wealth effect and household debt remained mostly steady with some in fact uptick recently in interest rates and credit card debt. However, most importantly, in our opinion, our three major factors in why the shipment and retail growth in the industry is being sustained. One, we are now seeing a larger wave of younger demographics, generations X, Y and millennials, many of which have an SUV or pickup already in their driveline embracing the outdoor lifestyle and beginning to buy larger quantities of RVs. Combined with the still strong baby-boomer segment, the industry is seeing an appetite for new products on both ends of its consumer population. Secondly, our end customers are using and demanding products for an increasing variety of different purposes. RVs are showing up in more places than ever before and being used professionally and personally on and off the grid. Lastly, the OEMs and the industry overall, including our dealers are very focused on providing affordably priced RVs with an increasing array of features and telling the story collectively of why the RV lifestyle is such an exciting one to join. It’s a great time to be a…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Craig Kennison with Robert W. Baird.

Craig Kennison

Analyst

Hey, thanks for taking my question and congratulations. First question is on the new capacity for Grand Design, is there any concern about your ability to access labor in what has become a very tight market for labor in Northern Indiana?

Michael Happe

Analyst

Good morning, Craig and thanks for the question. It is a good one obviously. We have had thorough discussions around this investment decision about the North Indiana labor market and it is in fact a very tight one, especially as the RV industry has grown both OEMs and suppliers continued to obviously look to attract workers to the industry, but also optimized the productivities of their current workforce. We obviously wouldn’t have made the investment decision if we didn’t feel as if that we had line of sight to attracting the workers necessary over time to working in those additional plants. We understand that there would be natural questions on pressure about wage inflation. I would tell you that with Grand Design being a relatively young company and even our Winnebago towables division in its still infancy in our opinion, we are gaining workers today for both businesses primarily from some of our competitors within the space. I think the growth nature of our business, the cultures we hopefully run within those businesses, and certainly competitive compensation practices are all attractive in helping people come over. I won’t share specific details, but we have a waiting list today of employees that are ready and willing to work at Grand Design. But as we have signaled, we are not quite ready with the infrastructure yet to employ them. So, it is a situation we will monitor carefully. And as I also mentioned earlier, there may be some other locations throughout the Winnebago enterprise that we could pursue other labor or production in if we found ourselves against a brick wall there or someday.

Craig Kennison

Analyst

Thank you. And then you mentioned some exciting new products coming in the Class A and the Class B segment, what would the margin implications of those new products be, anything we should be aware of there?

Michael Happe

Analyst

Well, I would tell you I will start with the Class B side. This is truly going to be product with hopefully a unique value proposition and differentiated in the market. So, my hope with that product obviously is that we can earn a fair retail price on the street with our end customers and certainly with our dealers earn a fair margin and allow them to have a fair margin as well. The Class A gas is an interesting question on that in this way. We have been and Bryan alluded to it in his comments, we have been under some price pressure already on our motorized business as our lineup in the value portions of motorized has been weaker than we would like. And so we have been more aggressively supporting retail sales and helping the dealers price some of our products to be more competitive already, and so a good example of that would be our Vista line on the Class A gas product. That product has become more competitive both through some new floor plans, but also through some more aggressive pricing on our end, but in reality that has had an impact on our margins as well, and And so we have been very conscious of the cost target on the new product that we are going to introduce. We’ve actually taken -- without sharing too many details competitively, we have taken a whole different design approach to this project. It will have many of the same Winnebago historical characteristics, but it will also demonstrate that we are willing to design differently to hit those price points. So, I think anytime you strengthen your line at the lower price points, it’s largely not going to be overly margin accretive, but I am hoping we can take some price pressure off of lines like the Vista that we have had to kind of push down further when we introduced this line as well.

Craig Kennison

Analyst

Great. Thanks Mike.

Michael Happe

Analyst

Thank you, Craig.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Gerrick Johnson with BMO Capital Markets.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets.

Hi, good morning. I was hoping you could discuss gross margin for the core Winnebago business if you excluded the mix from Grand Design, and then on Class A was that up 22%, a little bit more detail on what’s going on there in the quarter? Should we expect that sort of growth going forward? Thank you.

Bryan Hughes

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets.

Yes, Gerrick, this is Bryan. I guess, there is a couple of things I would call out for the quarter. First, we have a little bit of a mix thing we are fighting on the motorized side with the Class Cs being down a little bit in the quarter. And then we also had as Mike referenced some pricing to get our products positioned in the right place, the pricing certainly affected us negatively in the quarter on the motorized business. And then we have the costs associated with the ramp up of our West Coast facility and the lower productivity obviously of that new facility versus our Forest City facility. So, those three things are the primary drivers. We obviously have lift in the towables segment, primarily as we cited from the Grand Design business, but I don’t think you are asking about that. You are asking more about the base business, pre-acquisition. And those are the call-ups that I would make. The towables business, the Winnebago branded towables business continues to have improving margins. So, it’s really the motorized side that we are focused on improving the margins on and also those were the drivers of the quarterly margin.

Michael Happe

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets.

And I can speak to the – I think your question Gerrick was around the increase we saw in the Class A products. And again, hopefully I covered that a little bit in my comments or answer to Craig’s question. We have been working hard there to rationalize the line, introduce stronger floor plans that are more meaningful to our end customer and obviously be a bit more aggressive promotionally on some of the pricing there. We have had to play defense a bit to make sure that the market share dilution was an even worse than it had been trending. And so I think we started to stem that. But as I said with hopefully a new product in that category that we will be introducing in the future, we will have a more natural way to support that retail going forward. But most of that increase in Class A guest has been around what we call our distal line which is retail wise has been quite strong for our fiscal 2017 year.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets.

Okay, thank you.

Michael Happe

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of David Whiston with Morningstar.

David Whiston

Analyst · Morningstar.

Thanks. Good morning. You touched on demographics a bit, can you talk at all about what percent of your customers are over say age 50 or 45 either at the overall company level or it’s between motorized and towable?

Michael Happe

Analyst · Morningstar.

Good morning, David. I don’t have those specific numbers in front of us. I would tell you this on the motorized side it is still above 50%. I mean, the most of our motorized customers are probably still in that Gen Xer in especially baby-boomer segment. I don’t think there is any doubt to that. I have to go back and try to dig some of those out, but it’s a fair majority percentage. I would tell you though on the towables side, that number is significantly lower. The average age for an RV buyer in the industry is in that mid to late 40s range and a lot of that is driven by towables having an even younger demographic than the motorized side. So, I would venture to guests that we see probably a more 50:50 split, maybe even 60:40 leading younger on our towables businesses. Now, the Winnebago branded business is a little bit heavier than the travel trailers now. So, they have got lower price points, easier affordability. The Grand Design line is still a little slanted sales wise to luxury fifth-wheelers and that’s because of the higher price points there. You are probably going to see a little bit older customer, but David, we could work with you and any others interested to try to get you some more information on that certainly in the future detail wise.

David Whiston

Analyst · Morningstar.

Yes, that would be helpful down the road if you have the data. And there is one question on acquisitions, do you have the strong preference between if you were to make another deal at some point, would you want to do it with another motorized firm or towable firm or something in the outdoor lifestyle or you don’t really care as long as it’s one of those three?

Michael Happe

Analyst · Morningstar.

We are going to be careful with our comments here around non-organic business development. I think we have demonstrated with the Grand Design acquisition that we were comfortable with making an RV play, especially in that case one that gave us a fighting chance to compete on the towables segment. Now, again, we are still very young and very small there. We have got as I said earlier of around 5% retail share. There are very few private players left in the RV industry and all of the other OEMs know who they are. I probably won’t tip my hand there as to which ones we think might some day if they are willing to engage us that we might be interested in. The outdoor lifestyle question is one we are continuing to work on here with Ashis’ leadership. We have another board meeting in August with our Board and we will be having further discussion with them about some of the frameworks and lenses that we are looking at there. As Bryan articulated in the call, we are making good progress on the de-leveraging side. We have our leverage ratio down somewhere in the 1.8 range I believe and we have been very clear that we want continue to drive that down, but probably someday not to zero. So stay tuned I guess on that I wish I could answer that more definitively for you, but we are not ready to tip our hand competitively nor in some cases with outdoor lifestyle have we probably reached any collusion there. And we have a little bit of time left here we think with some of the de-leveraging work we need to do.

David Whiston

Analyst · Morningstar.

Okay. Thank you very much.

Michael Happe

Analyst · Morningstar.

Thank you, David.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Steve O'Hara with Sidoti.

Steve O'Hara

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Can you say – tell me what the Grand Design growth was in the quarter and year-over-year or during the period year-over-year and then was there any downward pressure on that given what sounds like some supply constraints you are having?

Michael Happe

Analyst

Well, I would tell you we are experiencing very similar growth in both our Grand Design and Winnebago brand in towables businesses from a comp standpoint. And I think Bryan shared a few numbers in the call. I will put it this way, it’s been running roughly around 15% for both businesses and its plus or minus for each of them, but that’s roughly the percentage growth that we have been seeing on those lines. In terms of your question around supply chain constraints, it’s a good one as well, our friends at Lippard and Patrick [ph] and any other suppliers in the industry are certainly bearing the burden of growth of the industry as well and trying to attract the labor, but also manage their own capacity constraints as the industry grows. So there are times in our daily and weekly production processes that you see some pinch points created by certain components falling behind a little bit. It’s obviously something we have been able to overcome and we worked very diligently with our suppliers to try to stay ahead of that. Now, given our size, we may not always be first in line if they have to trade what’s coming off their lines between us and our two other larger competitors. But the reality is we have been able to get what we needed. So we will work very carefully to make sure that any suppliers we partner with in the future have the ability to meet our growth expectations, but hopefully very honestly give us a preference in how they work with us so that we can create differentiated products in the market with them.

Steve O'Hara

Analyst

Okay, thank you. And then just on the I guess the expansion idea for Grand Design and maybe possibly towable business or wholly owned towable or the legacy towable business, I mean is there a order of magnitude we should be thinking about or what type of investment this might be and what the timeframe to implement it is and then what the potential risk is if the cycle does kind of trail off sooner than you expect, how soon can you ramp that facility down to lower production cycle?

Michael Happe

Analyst

Absolutely and obviously a great question there with the cyclicality nature, because and I know some of our competitors are investing in increased capacity as well, so it is somewhat a nervous stage with the cycle to be making some of those capacity and increased investments. But I will tell you this, I referenced in my comments that the investment in the Grand Design, investment in our capacity expansion specifically is going to be a double digit million dollar number. We do lease those buildings, but our portion of the investment is still a double digit investment over the entire proposal that the Board approved here recently. The sequencing of that for purposes that you stated later in your question, we will sequence this. We are not going to do all of this at once, but we went to the Board and said listen, here is the current land that we have, here is long range plan for Grand Design in order to bring this long range plan to life we need more capacity and we would like to present to you a master plan in order to do so. And so if you were to visit the Middlebury campus right now for Grand Design, they have been clearing land recently and starting the process so that some of these new buildings can go up. But we will stage them somewhat so that if for some reason the industry does take a downturn here in the next 6 months, 12 months whatever hopefully it’s not that soon, we would have the potential to either delay or postpone or potentially not open. So certainly there is some investment or cost risk in doing that, but we have a plan to build out that campus and it’s approved and we will begin that and you will see the revenue and share benefit of that over the next 3 years. But beginning in F ‘18, we will sell more product in F ‘18 because of that investment approval, but we will continue to hopefully increase capacity throughout the next couple years.

Steve O'Hara

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Michael Happe

Analyst

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Morris Ajzenman with Griffin Securities.

Morris Ajzenman

Analyst · Griffin Securities.

Hi guys. Questions we will pick over here, but just one item here, if you look at total sales, set of sales, what would you guess the made first time buyers as a percent of sales both in motorized and towables and are you seeing any changing patterns there?

Michael Happe

Analyst · Griffin Securities.

We do not have that number Morris. Good morning by the way. We do not have that number for ourselves. I don’t believe – well, we couldn’t probably drive that number out of our database. We don’t have that specific question on the retail registration. So if they are new to us that doesn’t necessarily mean that they are new to the industry. Now the RV industry and the camping industry have done some recent work that says approximately I believe around a third of the of the people that are entering both the camping lifestyle, but also the RV lifestyle are in fact new to both of those lifestyles. And so if I were to guess for the industry it’s probably in that 25% to 35% range. I can’t speak specifically to that because we don’t actually this is why I love these calls, because you guys give us great ideas. But we don’t – I don’t think we ask our customers if they are new to the lifestyle. They may be new to us and we certainly can know that number, but my guess Morris is that it’s probably a third or less.

Morris Ajzenman

Analyst · Griffin Securities.

And is that different than let’s say was a decade ago or not looking in the up down cycle but does that change?

Michael Happe

Analyst · Griffin Securities.

I can’t speak to that question primarily because of I have been in the industry for 18 months. So again we can help you offline with the RVIA, our industry association to try to understand that. I don’t know the answer to that.

Morris Ajzenman

Analyst · Griffin Securities.

So I am just trying to understand what is going forward, demographics working for you, but other things are the tailwinds or possibly headwinds that can interfere in this cycle continue longer than which has been normal kind of taking at that, I sided that and no other questions?

Michael Happe

Analyst · Griffin Securities.

Thank you. Have a great day.

Morris Ajzenman

Analyst · Griffin Securities.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Stember with C.L. King.

Scott Stember

Analyst · C.L. King.

Good morning guys and congratulations on the great progress you made in the quarter.

Michael Happe

Analyst · C.L. King.

Thank you good morning.

Scott Stember

Analyst · C.L. King.

Can you have a talk about the Oregon ramp up maybe just could – could you divulge what the actual startup costs have been and the timing of when you expect those startup costs to abate. And secondly regarding Oregon you talked about utilizing more outsourcing versus the vertical integration maybe just talk about that how you view that setup across the entire company?

Michael Happe

Analyst · C.L. King.

Yes. So real quickly and thanks for the questions. A bit of history and that decision was made in fall of 2015 and I know arrived in January of ’16 and quickly started to understand the decision that was made out there that the strategic rationale was to ultimately invest in a newer facility that was more accommodating for these larger 42 foot to 45 foot diesel coaches and obviously get closer to the West Coast customer and along with that came the acquisition of a good premium diesel brand called Country Coach. The approximate range of I think total costs that we are in for are somewhere in the $15 million to $20 million range for total investment in that project and that includes both the acquisition of the assets, but ultimately some of the startup costs around machinery and the like. I would tell you we are on the tail end of some of these startup costs, but what we are now starting to see as Bryan alluded to with production still be relatively low out there is we are not seeing some of the productivity numbers that we would generally have seen in a full plant in Forest City. So, we are probably going to be victims of a bit of a lower gross margin on our diesel line for a little while here in the future as we get full production ramped up there. So, I would say going forward, it’s probably more going to be gross profit pressure than it well be any capital investment or significant expense pressure. The vertical integration that we had in Iowa has always served all of the motorized product that we have ever made in the North Iowa plants. As you can imagine especially for these large products, the…

Scott Stember

Analyst · C.L. King.

Got it. And just the last question is also about Oregon, you made a comment about potentially moving some towable production out to that facility, can you maybe just talk about that a little bit more? I know some of your competitors have expanded their towable production out west, maybe just talk about the opportunity and maybe a timeline whether there is any sense of urgency, particularly given the cost advantages of not having to shift those less expense or units out west? Thank you.

Michael Happe

Analyst · C.L. King.

You are welcome. Thanks for the question. First of all, a comment that I don’t know if I said towables, I think I said that we reserve the right to look at that campus for other product. You are correct in that our OEM competitors, many of them, almost all of them that are the big ones have some facilities out there, especially around the lightweight travel trailers, because the cost of freight from the Midwest to the West Coast on those as a higher percent of the total selling price or cost of the product. We have several buildings out on our Junction City campus. Some of which today are not as full or as busy as they should be. And very candidly, we also have several acres of grants that is sitting there with a potential Greenfield opportunity. We have made no decisions about putting anything else out there. I will tell you though and back to some of the capacity constraint conversations we have had and also some of the conversations we have had around labor, we are well aware that we are building some systems out in Oregon and have a campus out there that could be utilized further by any of our divisions in the future. So, stay tuned, it’s an active conversation. We are not ready to announce anything and we have plenty of people here who are RV veterans that have experience in production in the West Coast in their previous lives and that would be a good thing when and if we ever tap into that.

Scott Stember

Analyst · C.L. King.

Got it. That’s all I have. Thanks for taking my questions.

Michael Happe

Analyst · C.L. King.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

I am showing no further questions in queue at this time.

Ashis Bhattacharya

Analyst

Thanks everyone for joining our call today. I hope all of you have a really enjoyable summer and we look forward to talking to you again when we review our fourth quarter and full year results. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today’s conference. This concludes the program and you may now disconnect. Everyone have a great day.