Bernard Duroc Danner
Analyst · Cowen Securities. Your line is open
Thank you, Krishna, and good morning, everyone. Since this is on Q1, Q1 earnings per share is a loss of $0.04. The $0.04 loss includes $0.03 of non-operating penalty from taxes and booked foreign exchange losses and $0.01 of corporate additional expenses. As Krishna mentioned, operations delivered results at breakeven. Revenues dropped sequentially by 25%. Decrementals operating income on revenues were held at 33.5%. Free cash flow came ahead of our expectations. The geography fully explains the quarter. International did very well by any standards. NAM was miserable. Our international segment held up very well despite the market declines. Our international margins actually rose sequentially. Revenues dropped 301 million, or 17.3%. Operating income held up remarkably well, dropping only 29 million or a very muted 9.7 decrementals. Incremental margins rose sequentially Q4 on Q1. Year-on-year operating income is actually higher than Q1 of 2014. It isn’t that we are not affected by market declines. Depending on the country, underlying market activity plummeted by anywhere from 10% to 30%, while pricing concessions average overall high single-digit and seasonal trends made the declines that much worse. Q1 is normally the weakest international quarter. Foreign exchange factors also added a further depressant effect. Consider the direction of the euro, rubel, kroner as well as the currencies of Canada, Brazil, Australia, Argentina, etcetera, and even the U.K. pound. This is a broad movement. All went down vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar by anywhere from 10% to 40% and that isn’t counting debased currencies such as Venezuela’s. So performance for our international segment was very deserving across the board and, more importantly, it is one that will be sustained in quarters ahead. The explanation for the performance is simple: it is all about discipline and discernment on business sort. It is also about people selection. It is about bench strengthening. It is finally about rebooting a number of international markets, one by one, that were lost in the prior years. We have significant self-help. As current examples, but not meant to be exhaustive, Brazil, Angola, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq all support a countercyclical performance for Weatherford, which together with large cost cuts and efficiency drive will make our international segment post a strong performance this year in relative and absolute terms. There is more of this same self-help to come. As time unfolds, the work we are doing in our international segments will show more-and-more dividends this year and the next. In many ways, this shouldn’t surprise anybody. A long time ago, we were very strong and effective in the international arena. The years of administrative self-destruction took much of that away. We’re now rebuilding the capabilities, organization, culture and market share step-by-step and systematically. Now, North America is an entirely different situation. Our NAM segment was severely impacted and, however fast we reacted, it could not prevent a loss of profitability. Our NAM segments had a punitive quarter. You know, the numbers. Revenues dropped $606 million or 34%. Operating income dropped 295 million for a steep 48.8% decremental. Margins disappeared. U.S. was terrible. Canada was extraordinarily weak for a Q1. Our Q1 was actually lower than Q1 of 2009 in Canada. The U.S. numbers below tell the stories of the quarter. All comparisons will be sequential, Q4 on Q1. Revenues dropped 34%. Average price concession on land averaged about 20%. Average price concession offshore averaged just under 10%. Average volume declines went from 20% to 40% with big differences between product lines. To a large extent, our results are not surprising given the market’s abrupt collapse. The sharp fall hit our U.S. operation, which is historically less efficient than international segments and arguably for now not as well positioned. Facts. Fact number one, we have much more of a land position in offshore. This isn’t inevitable, it wasn’t true historically, and it certainly isn’t desirable, but the fact is we have a land position in the U.S. And land was orders of magnitude, weaker than in the Gulf of Mexico. Second fact, our client base in the U.S. is mostly Tier 2 and Tier 3 in size. This again isn’t desirable and it isn’t inevitable either. It certainly isn’t true internationally. The Tier 2 and Tier 3 are client base dropped their activity much faster and much further than Tier 1. Finally, the U.S. has a heavy cost structure, many layers and overly spread out. We have too many locations. So we understand all this; we are doing fundamental efficiency work in the U.S. today addressing the structural as well as the cyclical. The U.S. will be transformed operationally when we are finished. U.S. was never well-managed at the Weatherford. It is about to change. As I mentioned, there was no help in Canada -- from Canada in Q1. Canada had the weakest Q1 on record in all my years at Weatherford. As I mentioned earlier, Q1 was weaker than Q1, 2009. Even more shocking, Q1 was actually weaker in both revenues and operating income than Q2, 2014, second quarter of last year. Remembering the fact that second quarter is our breakup time where business essentially stops while the year’s highest quarter is the first. Canada is well-run and action is underway to address market conditions. Under cost reductions, Krishna covered the overall costs statistics; I won’t repeat them. I will add one comment: the efficiency gains must be perennial as in structural. This is paramount to us. Throughout this exercise we’ve been very focused on understanding and improving the efficiency of our support structures. There are clear productivity gains to be achieved through optimizing support resources. Now, direct versus support reduction is a good measurement of our ability to offset activity reductions, both cyclically and structurally. Direct will ebb and flow with activity, support doesn’t necessarily depend on utilization. We started 2015 at a ratio of 45% support to direct employees and we have moved fractionally to 43% as of April. Its progress, but it’s not much progress. We’re targeting 40% in the short term, closer to 35% by yearend 2016 and lower in 2017. And we intend to do this without compromising administrative integrity in any way or form. I will move to the outlook to yearend 2015, first, the international markets. International market dynamics will be mixed with an overall weak bias throughout the year. Now, our Q1 financial results for international will end up being the low point for Weatherford’s international segment. International financial results, again for Weatherford, were likely to be flat in Q2 then rise some in second half, driven by self-help and cost cuts. That’s for the international. Now, NAM market dynamics will weaken further in Q2. The rate of decline will flatten out by end of Q2. What should be the market’s bottom, probably our best guess in June or July -- something like that our best guess. So Q3 should be the low point for NAM market activity. It’s only because of the arithmetic, three months of lowest activity. Weatherford’s NAM financial results will decline further in Q2, moderated by cost cuts implemented to-date and, in fact, the decrementals will be better Q1 on Q2 than Q4 on Q1. Most likely, in our judgment, Q2 will be the lowest quarter for our NAM financial results, even though Q3 will have the lowest underlying market activity. This is what we believe. The company will be free cash flow positive starting with Q2 and every remaining quarter of this year. To restate what was mentioned, because we feel strongly about it, we will be free cash flow positive for the full year. Taking a regional view, Middle East, North Africa will play an important role as it unfolds this turnaround. This is in 2015. The progression will come from incremental business in the three largest Gulf markets: Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Kuwait. MENA will be markedly stronger in 2015 and 2014, really for Weatherford-specific reasons. The turnaround is here to last. Weatherford’s MENA is on the long-term structural expansion for us. Russia. Russia is severely hit by the ruble exchange rate. From an incremental business volume standpoint, our Russian region will do well, driven by contractual gains in formation valuation and well construction. All-in, Russia will not be a headwind. Russia will, in fact, progress year-on-year but held back by client liquidity and foreign exchange. SSA will experience as a market activity slowdown and project delays, clearly. Our operations, though, will continue to build on broad technological successes, number of product lines, and overall market penetration. To a large degree, it’s a little bit the same as in Middle East; there is some elements of reboot going on in SSA for us. And as a reminder, we have a large backlog in SSA. Now Europe activity, but not Caspian, will weaken some from Q1 levels. There will be some countercyclical areas of seasonal improvements, but essentially client activity will remain muted. Within that region, the Continental market will be the most affected, weakest; the U.K. will be the most resilient. For us, the European and Caspian region is a year of continued market penetration of cost efficiency. Asia is the one exception in the Eastern Hemisphere. Asia will experience substantially lower activities the balance of the year, driven by severe budgetary cuts in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Australia, while China will remain anemic. In Asia, only cost can make a difference at this point and our aggressive cost actions underway in that regional market should mitigate the decline. Latin America experienced in Q1 serious market contraction in Mexico and Colombia, but it continued to build strength in Brazil and Argentina. The balance of the year we expect further market weakening in Colombia and possibly also Mexico. Venezuela will appear to be weakening, but it is entirely the foreign exchange effect. Activities like this remain quite strong in Venezuela. As we continue to operate in that market, we have reduced our net bolivar risk exposure to very minimal levels. We expect Brazil to continue building strength throughout our well construction technologies. We have multi-year backlog of about $800 million in Brazil alone. In Argentina, we expect to broaden further our presence, covering almost all of our core product lines and the fast-developing activity in the shale play. Argentina and Brazil are today our two largest markets in Latin America. They have replaced Mexico, the undisputed leader in years past. Both Eastern Hemisphere and Latin America all-in will show relative strength throughout the 2015 market decline. We will, in effect, outperform the market. Our internal plans are to deliver roughly similar profitability year-on-year 2014 on 2015 for the overall international segment. For us, North America is the issue in 2015. We expect North America to remain very severely impacted by both volume and price. We’re gearing up for a year of very low activity and depressed pricing, both in the U.S. and Canada, which will not be any better. Activity curtailment will be matched by lowering our direct costs aggressively. The lowering of the company’s overall support cost structure, which I discussed earlier, will also partly help. Our ability to manage the NAM downturn is paramount. We understand this. We’re taking a very serious cost and restructuring action in the U.S. throughout the year, the likes of which Weatherford never experienced. And cost and efficiency drives pay dividends. We expect to return to profitability for NAM in the second half of the year through cost action alone and enter 2016 a much leaner and focused NAM operation. We also expect lift – artificial lift to our profitability in the second half of the year. Lift was hurt in Q1 by client destocking activity for new equipment, which given the steepness of the decline is not surprising – market decline, that is. Concurrently, we deteriorated our short-term profitability by aggressively scaling back supply chain, generating very large unfavorable manufacturing variances in Q1. As a reminder, lift is very supply chain-intensive, as is completion. Most likely, by Q3, client inventory levels will be absorbed, while our supply chain will have fully adjusted. This will help both the U.S. and Canada’s results in Q3 and Q4. Direction – you know our direction. As bad as market conditions are this year, there is a silver lining. This is a kind of market in which we can make fast and deep cost progress and also effectively redirect our culture and rebuild a strong bench. Our action centers around improving three things and doing so in a structural way – costs, both cyclical emphases on structural; cash generation as a culture; and, the third, our talent bench and talent development. We’re taking strong action and take this market – on all three and take this market as an opportunity as much as a punishment. Macro-related strength – we maintain the same view. At present levels of activity worldwide, decline rates are not being arrested, let alone an expansion of capacity. Specifically, we believe decline rates in the international reservoirs will lower oil production capacity at least 1.5 million barrels per day by year-end 2016. This number is conservative. U.S. decline rates in the same period of time will lower production capacity by a range of 0.5 million to 1.5 million barrels per day. The mid-point of 1 million barrels per day, again by year-end 2016, is our working assumption. This number is also conservative. And demand for combined 2015 and 2016 will consume an incremental 2 million barrels per day. This isn’t a controversial assumption. If you add these numbers, it leads to the following observation. There isn’t capacity in operation or in existence to accommodate sustainably a swing of 4.5 million barrels per day. You can derive your own conclusion on the oil market’s prognosis. For the very near term, a few observations. In the Middle East, all the talk about financial reserves and the ability of senior OPEC countries to take low prices for an extended period of time are coming up against the reality that these funds are not going to be replaced for a very long time. And parallel wars in the region add major costs that were not part of the plan. I suspect, also, in the Middle East, we’ll start seeing some delicate moves to try to pare down production. Growing domestic demand in summer alone will be a major element, reducing capacity available for exports. This will add a constructive tone to the market in H2 2015. Now, on the other side of the ledger, the release of Iran in the oil markets pushes the balance back in the red. Within six months of sanctions’ end, probably 600,000 barrels a day – possibly as much as 800,000 barrels per day of incremental production could be released. Aside from the near-term imbalances made worse, I would remind all of you that Iran is much more of a gas than an oil play. The Iranian reservoir base is a giant gas cap. In the long-term Iran is a major headache for Gazprom, not OPEC. As a synthesis, macro analysis suggests the oil industry is underfunded and underinvested and that current prices will be challenged to deliver needed oil supplies in 2017. Meaning oil demand couldn’t be met by oil capacity as early as 2017, which is unthinkable. We reiterate the best assessment we can provide for the year, for this year. Our international performance will be resilient. NAM will remain very challenged. We intend to aggressively address direct and indirect costs companywide in reaction to the market and for the company’s long-run transformation, and we intend to simultaneously build our talent bench. We have nine to 12 months to make Weatherford efficient, low-cost, with a talent bench and talent development process we have never had. Weatherford will be efficient, lean, and organizationally flat. It needs to be for our clients and our shareholders. We must put this brutal recession to good use. We are determined to do so. With that, I will turn the – I will return the call to the operator for Q&A.