Bernard J. Duroc-Danner
Analyst · Simmons & Company
Thank you, John. My comments will be split into 2 sections. As someone could not possibly care more deeply about the company and has his net worth in our company stock, I watch the same pain as our shareholders and travails involved in straightening our income tax management and income tax accounting practices. There are a few things to keep in mind: the material weakness and the corrective measures under way are for income tax accounting, not the company's accounting as a general statement. Put another way, there never were any issues on and around pre-tax earnings then or now. This should be clear, but bears repeating. Second, it does not involve cash. Third, as long and grueling of a process as it may seem, we are making progress to remediate our income tax weakness and place this issue behind us. The latest decision to adjourn filing revised Ks and Qs, it's necessary to avoid endless waits for loops of finding more past errors in accounting of income taxes, which yield more restatements, which monopolize more resources in what is ultimately a sterile iteration until our final historical income tax numbers are set. We have and we're looking with stern fairness [ph] for any and all possible past income tax accounting errors. We want to correct them all and build from a sound base. We're making progress. Since the self-diagnosed error spotted in February 2011 by our own internal audit, the scope and scale of historical errors has steadily decreased. The numbers are becoming smaller. Our hope is that we found during Q2 the last errors out there, but we cannot be certain yet. Our plan, therefore, between now and year end has 3 steps. First, find and correct all remaining income tax accounting historical errors, if any are left. There may be none to be found, or there may be some. We don't know. We will find out by year end. Two, complete the income tax remediation of our material weakness in income tax accounting to the satisfaction of our auditors. This is also by year end. The remediation process is, by definition, a year-end event, if successful. Last, rebuild our tax planning and implementation group under the leadership of Jim Parent, our newly appointed VP of Taxes. By year end, we'll be moving towards intelligently using our multinational tax structure for what it was designed, lowering our long-term income tax rates worldwide, both cash and book. On that last issue, as John mentioned, the effective income tax rate for year '12 is in the range of 37% to 39%, up from 35%, an early estimate. It is a high tax rate by any measure. We will gradually lower our overall tax rate effective '13 through '16. The mix of business and regional distribution of profitability will have, always does, a role to play as to where tax rates end up. But the rigor, effectiveness and efficiency with which we intend to manage our income tax planning and the execution will minimize future tax rates, and we'll have seen the last of our income tax accounting errors. The second section in my comments will focus on operating results and the outlook for the balance of the year. Q2's operating results were essentially flat on Q1. The numbers were very close at the EBIT line and almost identical on pre-tax earnings line. Future revenues rose 5% or just under $200 million in spite of a sharp Canadian breakup, suggesting a healthy revenue uplift in the second half of the year. Specifically, Q1 on Q2, Canada fell sharply. Latin America, the European-Caspian-SSA-Russia region and, to a degree, the U.S. had strong quarters and made up for it. MENAAP was weak as expected, no better nor worse. MENA is finishing this recovery process. North America was the net of a well-behaved U.S. and a worse Canadian breakup that was anticipated. U.S. had a good quarter. Revenues and operating income were up on Q1, driven primarily by Lift and Well Construction. Stimulation weakened further by the much smaller rate than in prior quarters. Canada's Q2 was all breakup. The weather issues in Western Canada had been well reported. I won't belabor the point. The effect on NAM results were very significant, in part because we are by legacy very Canadian in exposure. Canada's seasonal drop in EBIT Q1 on Q2 was the highest decline in absolute dollars terms in company history. It affected all product line across the board. U.S. performance softened the blow. Latin America had a strong quarter with revenues and EBIT up substantially over Q1. Latin America's EBIT of $104 million was the highest Q2 on record and second-highest EBIT ever. Mexico was the single biggest mover, but the overall regional also did well. Incrementals were modest at 15%, 1 5, percent, partly because of the winding down by year end of the existing POC contracts in Mexico and partly because there were a number of starts-up in the region. Latin America is laying the foundations for further strong performance in the second half of the year and 2013. The European-Caspian-SSA-Russia had a very strong quarter and was the quarter's stellar performer. Revenues were up sequentially $83 million or 15%, and EBIT rose $60 million to $120 million in the quarter. The incrementals were strong 70%, 7-0, partly reflecting good seasonal pickup, partly driven by stellar performance in Russia and SSA. It was the highest EBIT ever reached by this region in the company's history, that's in absolute dollars. The EBIT margins though, at 18.4%, remain low. The historical peak was in 2007, when it averaged just under 25%, 24.5% to be exact. MENAAP was exactly as expected. Asia Pacific had another good quarter progressing over Q1, both revenues and EBIT. MENAAP continued to be seriously hurt by the winding down of unfavorable contracts, primarily in Iraq and Turkmenistan, but primarily Iraq. Iraq is an issue of poor pricing, terms and condition on 3 large prior contracts. Turkmenistan was an issue of client performance on one large prior contract. That contract is now closed. All in all, NAM's EBIT dropped by $88 million because of Canada. This was made up by international, which shows $73 million, if you want to squint to see how the quarter ended up. Q2's non-operating or corporate numbers were marked by continued high overhead associated with the quarter's intense work on and around income tax accounting. The expenses were lower than Q1 but remained materially higher than historically and higher than it will be once the income tax remediation work is completed. From an operating standpoint, the quarter was good performance and a number of regions laid the groundwork for strong second half in 2013, which brings me to my forward views. The prognosis is positive and pretty much across the board. We remain constructive on NAM, both top line and margin. We believe Canada will have a strong second half, with a market predominantly oil-based and for us a nationally high market share in Canada, we expect to do well as the year progresses. The United States. We remain of the view that notwithstanding a sharp drop in gas-related activity, the oil and hybrid market segments and our product mix focus will secure constructive second half of '12. To provide the same context as I did in Q1, this quarter, pressure pumping accounted for about 9% of NAM's EBIT, down from 10% of NAM's EBIT in Q1, while Lift accounted for 33% of EBIT up from 25%. As expected, we did not see much further downside for our NAM pressure pumping. By contrast, we see further volume pricing and absorption-led margin improvement in Lift, of course, the balance of the year. We also expect positive improvements in formation evaluation, Well Construction and Completion. Latin America should have a strong second half with broad-based continuous progress across the region. It is of course Mexico, Colombia, Brazil and Argentina and the far-end [ph] segment of the Venezuela. But it is also a number of smaller high-margin markets, such as Ecuador, Bolivia, Peru and Trinidad. We have a solid backlog of business at improved pricing and traditionally, the second half is seasonally the strongest in Latin America. The European-Caspian-SSA-Russian region should remain strong throughout the second half with incremental margin improvements. So all of the above regions that I just described, this is the same or consistent outlook we have had for some time. There are no changes, just a greater sense of reliability. MENAAP is the obvious turnaround, at least the MENA segment. We expect MENA to improve in the second half of '12 from both a top line and margin standpoint. Although we're still completing some of the unfavorable contracts at a diminish rate, while most start-ups in Saudi, Kuwait, Iraq, et cetera have been successfully initiated. There are more start-ups under way still in Saudi, Algeria and Northern Iraq, but the denominator of healthy contracts now running is larger and building. Makes it easier to absorb start-up costs. This suggests a improved level of profitability the second half of the year. A few added comments of what have been 2 difficult markets. Algeria from a contractual standpoint has turned around for us, suggesting a better, more constructive outlook for that country in the second half of '12 and 2013. Iraq will evolve into an operation of improving profits as the year unfolds, both in Southern and in Northern Iraq. Iraq used to be a country of high profitability for us in years past. It should return now to reasonable profitability and returns, commensurate with the risk and difficulties undertaken in that country. To summarize, profitability and margins in MENA will commence a process of positive adjustments and correction in Q3 and build from there. Asia has strong backlog overall. We expect Asia to continue showing good improvements in the second half of the year for all these financial metrics. To summarize, our international outlook in the second half of '12 is a good progress. We feel confident with this. We expect the second half of the year to show continuous improvements in international volume and margins in every region. All in, second half 2012 should have strong operating performance and show financial progression on all markers. North America should hold its own and remain positive in revenue, EBIT and margin trends. But clearly, the international segments should drive the numbers. We also progress -- showed progress on returns. Capital-wise, we expect to commit our internally generated cash flow this year to funding what we anticipate will be a circa 20% top line growth when the year is counted '11 on '12. We target our capital intensity to about $0.75 to $0.80 of incremental CapEx and working capital per dollar revenue growth. If you want to get to the net CapEx number, all you have to do is add back, add to that number about $500 million worth of maintenance CapEx for the company as a whole and that gives you the CapEx number as a whole. Given the incremental margins we set at as yardsticks, our returns should improve throughout this year and the next. Improving our returns and managing our capital more efficiently are imperatives for this company. We expect to achieve this without losing traditional growth and entrepreneurial strengths we are known for. Our mark is the capital efficiency. CapEx, maintenance and growth combined, should remain in the range of 10% to 15% revenues. It averaged 11% in 2011. Our target year-end DSO and DSI are, respectively, 76 and 75 days or better. DSI, inventories, offers the most opportunity of further down the road to capital efficiency. We are also pressing with tightening objectives receivables as in DSOs. Assuming a comparable level of organic revenue growth in 2013, as we had in '12, we should finance the growth and still have solid free cash flow in '13 in excess of internal growth needs. The levering will be likely used to [indiscernible] that. Other issues. We have slowed the pace of divestments due to the very low valuation prevailing in the financial market. We still do expect the sale of the second non-core asset between now and year end. The company this quarter set aside $100 million accrual for settlement with the Justice Department on issues relating to alleged violations of sanctioned country laws -- or sanctioned countries laws. The settlement and the terms are not a uncertainty, but they now appear palpable. Lastly, just to repeat what John mentioned, assuming a midpoint 38% tax rate, midpoint of 37%, 39%, Q3 should be therefore in a $0.30 to $0.32 range or the pre-tax earnings equivalent. With that, I will return the call for a Q&A session.