Bernard J. Duroc-Danner - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer
Analyst · Simmons & Company
Thank you, Andy. Q2 is as we expected, a tale of two hemispheres. The Western Hemisphere revenues declined a $123 million, driven by Canada's extraordinarily low level of activity. The operating income detrimental is associated with the abrupt decline with a very high 87%. In sharp contrast, the Eastern Hemisphere added $86 million of revenues in the quarter, growing sequentially by 13.5% and year-on-year by 40% EBIT which I suspect will be the industry's highest performance amongst our peers. The growth was broad based across all product lines and EBIT incrementals were strong 32%. Still the Eastern Hemisphere could not overcome in Q2 the one-time abrupt decline in Canadian market, not with the high exposure Weatherford has. The Canadian market was affected by an almost perfect storm combination of seasonal downturn, unforgiving weather, rain, client tactics and the recent change in tax laws. Rig count was down 72% sequentially and 51% year-on-year. The level of activity was identical to Q2 2002 and only about 43 rigs above 1999 levels which defies the imagination. Weatherford has the higher Canadian exposure than any of its peers on and around heavy oil. This is a historic fact and in the aftermarket of Precision acquisition. It's fair to expect, we would be the most affected amongst our peers by end market contraction, and we were very effective. To give you a perspective, let me remind you of some historical data. In Q1 of 2006, this is only 15 months ago, Canada represented about 25% of Weatherford's total business. By Q1 of '07, the number dropped to high teens. In this quarter, the Canadian exposure was pushed down into single digits, combination of Canadian market declines and Eastern Hemisphere growth. Associated detrimentals were predictably very high, which is traditionally the case by a combination of two factors, obviously no fixed cost absorptions but also seasonal repairs and maintenance. On the latter, we did attempt in the short 90 days of the quarter to extensively zero time and whenever possible upgrade our tool and equipment fleet in that market, best we can. The U.S. concurrently did remarkably well posting another quarter of good sequential growth in spite of its infill month [ph] terrible weather patterns and a meager 1% sequential rig count increase. The U.S. had particularly solid growth in lift, completion, directional and chemical stimulation service lines. Latin America was flat, primarily where it was Venezuela Orinoco for us which was very weak for obvious political reasons. We have a dominant share in Orinoco for a number of product lines, which is really heavy oil. The other factor this quarter was usual noise associated with contract timing is about to reverse itself. The prognosis of Latin America is very strong. Eastern Hemisphere was very strong across the board. The sequential 13.5 growth rate is spread between a quantum 19%, even performance out of the European, West Africa, CIS Africa region and a strong 10% performance out of the Middle East, Asia region. Russia, West Africa, Caspian and the U.K. drove 19% sequential growth for the European, West Africa, CIS region. China, Oman, Algeria, India and Abu Dhabi, drove the 10% sequential growth for the Middle East, Asian region. All product lines showed strong growth. Drilling services which is directional, underbalanced was the fastest growing product line. Completion, lift and wireline showed the next greatest improvements in the hemisphere. Year-on-year comparisons painted almost exclusively international picture. Q2 on Q2 12 months growth was indeed overwhelmingly international. Q2 2007 on Q2 2006 Eastern Hemisphere was up exactly 40%, adding $206 million in revenues. Latin America was up 16% and international as a whole was up 33.5%, adding year-on-year $234 million in revenues or almost a $1 billion annualized. The company's regions, Europe, West Africa, CIS was up 42% versus a 3% underlying rig recount decline and had the highest year-on-year growth rate company-wide. The close runner-up Middle East, North America, Asia was up 38% versus a 12% underlying rig count increase. By comparison, North America was up only 5% year-on-year, fairly decent performance in the growth wise in the U.S. making up for the substantial Canadian decline. In the same time period, North American rig count was down 1% year-on-year. And as Andy mentioned, the quarterly company's geographic breakdown was as follows: North America 48.6, international 51.4. For the first time post the Precision acquisition international revenues eclipsed the North American revenues. Forward views, first North America, two comments. The trailing 12 months has been for our shareholders of understandable concern as to the direction and impact of the Canadian market on our company. I would suggest the concern has no further reasons from being. The recent Q2, while, strikes out as an unsustainable and perhaps unreasonable across in activity, Canada, will tell, we're constructive on the latter part of the year and 2008. Oil, heavy oil and the gas segments will drive the market recovery. In fact, we would expect Q4 or Q1 '08 latest to show a higher year-on-year statistics. Two, we remain constructive on the U.S. market. The productivity limitations of the U.S. reservoir base support a middle ground scenario of healthy single-digit growth for the market particularly in certain classes of product line. In addition, for Weatherford specifically, there is organic growth to be had still in drilling services, wireline, ESP, sand control and chemicals, all have proprietary technology and all growing with small market share. Forward outlook for our international business is very strong and essentially unchanged. As per the opening paragraphs in my comments, the trailing 12 months growth in international segment was 40% Eastern Hemisphere and 16% in Latin America, which translates into 33.5% the international market as a whole, that's the historical performance of trailing 12 months. Looking forward and setting aside both the recovery in Canada and decent prospects for the U.S., growth in 2007, '08, and '09 will primarily come out of the international market. year-on-year in 2007, we expect a growth of 40% in Eastern Hemisphere and 25% in Latin America versus 2006. That hasn't changed, hasn't changed since beginning of the year. Both numbers add up to weighted average 36% growth of Weatherford's international segment in 2007. In the Eastern Hemisphere, we expect North Africa, Russia, Middle East, sub-Sahara Africa, China and Central Europe to show the greatest growth year-on-year. In Latin America, we expect Mexico, Brazil and Argentina to show the greatest growth year-on-year. Growth rates in Latin America for the next 18 months should be strong. Setting the geographic aside, I'll take you through the quarterly performance of our 10 service product lines. The product lines as usual are ranked in size from largest to smallest. Artificial lift $309.1 million, while construction $293.1 million, drilling services $281.3 million, drilling tools $217.2 million, completion systems $195.3 million, re-entry fishing $144.1 million, wireline $128.7 million, chemicals and stimulation $124.4 million, integrated drilling $87.2 million and in pipeline $35.5 million. As a comment on the ups and downs of the product line sequentially which you can compute for yourself is remarkable that drilling services, completion and lift grew company-wide in spite of Canada, where they all have large presence in market share. Ex-Canada, which is the most meaningful metric, all product lines grew at Weatherford, there was no exception. The highest dollar growth was experienced by drilling services, directional, underbalanced was up 14%, artificial lift up 12.6 % and completion systems up 14.3%. Drilling services had an outstanding quarter, as did completion, no doubt. The growth in PCP and ESP drove lift's over-performance. In the course of the quarter we started up our first two management projects in North Africa and China. We expect in 12 months to be running five projects concurrently. Two other items, we discontinued an E&P operation that will divest of the assets. This E&P initiatives started two years ago had a primary R&D purpose. It was complementary to proving up recent technologies. It has run its course and we have identified more efficient substitutes to progress new technology development. I might add that the capital invested is modest in that discontinued operation. Second, we were uncharacteristically active on the acquisition front this quarter. The past two years we've been essentially dormant in the acquisition realm. This quarter seven transactions were completed for total of $490 million. Six of the seven were modest in size and essentially technology-driven, covering a wide spectrum of product lines from optimization software to pipeline. Four were in the West and two were in the East. The seventh investment was more material. Late in the quarter we closed on the acquisition of a 33% stake in the Russian company Borets. Borets is the world's largest ESP manufacturer by volume and the third largest in the world by value, with an extensive industrial and service infrastructure. The company operates eight large engineering, manufacturing and service bases throughout the Russian oil-patch. Borets was founded in 1897, I did say 1897, was the first company in Russia to design and manufacture submersible pumps in 1952. While the Borets will be held as an equity investment, there will be a close cooperation between the two companies. Notwithstanding this quarter's investments, you should not expect Weatherford to be particularly acquisitive. The relevance of acquisition depends entirely on circumstances that may or may not occur. Aside from Precision, almost two years ago, acquisitions have not been a meaningful factor in our financial and operating performance. Taking an overall view of 2007 we are likely to invest about $1.2 billion in CapEx or at about Q2's level. In addition, we're already advanced in planning our 2008 CapEx. Given the scale and qualitative organic growth opportunities in 2007-2008, investments in organic growth are the priority. We estimate an after-tax return on organic growth of between 25% and 30% per annum. We bought 1 million shares in Q2 at an average price $55.45 per share. We have another $272 million left under a $1 billion of share repurchase plan, and we do expect a renewed commitment as once this program is completed. In summary, we're executing the 2007 growth plan. We are laying at the same time the seeds for 2008 and 2009. We have consistently believed that what is unfolding in the offshore service and equipment markets is a very long secular growth trend that mirrors three things; the acceleration of decline rates that's one, non-OECD demography and non-OECD GNP per capita Weatherford tax. We are confident in our growth prognosis of the international market. We are constructive on the prognosis of the U.S markets. We expect a reversal of trends in the Canadian market effective now. That concludes my prepared comments. Operator, could you please open the question-and-answer period.