Earnings Labs

Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)

Q3 2021 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 14, 2021

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome and thank you for joining the Wells Fargo Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please note that today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to John Campbell, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin the conference.

John Campbell

Analyst

Thank you [Indiscernible] (ph). Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call today. Our CEO, Charles Scharf, and our CFO, Michael Santomassimo, will discuss Third Quarter results and answer your questions. This call is being recorded. Before we get started, I would like to remind you that our third-quarter earnings materials including the release, financial supplement, and presentation deck are available on our website at wellsfargo.com. I'd also like to caution you that we may make forward-looking statements during today's call that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are detailed in our SEC filings, including the Form 8-K filed today containing our earnings materials. Information about any non-GAAP financial measures referenced, including a reconciliation of those measures to GAAP measures can also be found in our SEC filings in the earnings materials available on our website. I will now turn the call over to Charlie.

Charles Scharf

Analyst

Thanks, John. And good morning, everyone. I will make some brief comments about our third-quarter results, the operating environment and update you on our priorities. I'll then turn the call over to Mike to review the third-quarter results in more detail before we take your questions. Let me start with some third-quarter highlights. We earned $5.1 billion or $1.17 per common share in the third quarter. These results included a $1.7 billion decrease in the allowance for credit losses as credit quality continued to improve. Revenue declined on lower gains from equity securities, which were elevated in the second quarter, though still strong. Expenses continue to decline, reflecting progress on our efficiency initiatives and included $250 million associated with the September OCC enforcement action. And for the first time, since the first quarter of 2020, we grew both period and loans and deposits in the third quarter. We continue to see that our customers have significant liquidity and consumers are continuing to spend, while lower than the peak in March, our consumer customers median deposit balances continued to remain above pre-pandemic levels, up 48% for customers who received federal stimulus, and 40 -- I'm sorry, up 48% for customers who receive a federal stimulus, and 40% higher for those who did not receive federal-Aid. Weekly debit card spending during the third quarter was up every week compared to 2019. And in the week ending October 1st was up 14% compared to 2020 and 26% compared to 2019. Areas hardest hit by the pandemic have recovered, including travel up 2%, entertainment up 39%, and restaurant spending up 20% during the week ending October 1 compared with 2019. Consumer credit card spending activity continued to increase by 18% in the third quarter compared to 2019, and 24% compared to 2020. During the…

Michael Santomassimo

Analyst

Thanks, Charlie. Good morning, everyone. Charlie summarized how we're helping our customers and communities on Slide 2. So I am going to start with our third-quarter financial results on Slide 3. Net income for the quarter was 5.1 billion or $1.17 for the common share. Our results included a $1.7 billion decrease in the allowance for credit losses. This is reflective of the continuing improvement in credit performance and the economic recovery. Pretax, pre-provision profit grew from a year ago as lower revenue driven by a decline in net interest income was more than offset by lower expenses. We continue to execute on our efficiency initiatives, which have helped improve the expense run rate. And as Charlie highlighted, the third quarter included $250 million in operating losses associated with the September OCC enforcement action. Non-interest income was relatively stable from a year ago. Within that, equity gains declined from the second quarter, but increased 220 million from a year ago, predominantly due to our affiliated venture capital and private equity businesses. We also had an increase in investment advisory and other asset-based fees from a year ago, as well as in card, deposit-related, and investment banking fees. These increases were more than offset by declines in other areas, including lower mortgage banking revenue and lower markets revenue in corporate investment banking. Our effective income tax rate in the third quarter was 22.9%. Our CET1 ratio declined to 11.6% in the third quarter as we repurchased 5.3 billion of common stock. As a reminder, our regulatory minimum will be 9.1% in the first quarter of 2022, reflecting a lower GSIB capital surcharge. Additionally, under the stress capital buffer framework, we have the flexibility to increase capital distributions. And if possible, we will be able to repurchase more than the $18 billion…

Operator

Operator

At this time. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Please record your name at the prompt. If at any time your question has been answered. [Operator Instructions] to withdraw your question from the question queue [Operator Instructions] Please stand by for our first question. Our first question will come from Scott Siefers of Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

Scott Siefers

Analyst

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I was hoping you could address the cost outlook. I certainly appreciate the commentary regarding the fourth quarter in particular. I think as we look forward, you guys have had the expectation that costs could come down year-over-year for the next couple of years. Of course, puts you guys in a very unique position vis-a - vis many of your peers, but so many people are talking about things like wage inflation right now. Just curious, to what degree are you seeing that, and more importantly, is there enough flexibility in your existing outlook such that even despite higher wage pressures you could still see cost down year-over-year for the next couple of years?

Charles Scharf

Analyst

Sure. This is Charlie. Thanks for the question. I guess -- let me start with the wage inflation. I think we certainly are seeing wage inflation. I would say it's very different across different parts of the Company and very different across different shot categories that we have. And so as we approach it, we're trying to be very thoughtful about ensuring that we are continuing to be as fair with people as we can be as well as paying competitively. We actually are making awards to people in our branches, which equate to roughly $2.50 an hour from the beginning of October through the end of the year. To thank them for what they're doing, but also address the competitiveness that exists out there and we're evaluating what makes sense for the longer-term. And in places of the Company where we do see wage pressure, we're acting accordingly, but I would not say that it's something that we see everywhere across the entire Company and every single job. But we're certainly prepared for it and look at it very, very regularly as we look at things like attrition and whatnot. To the broader question, I think, first of all, we're in the middle of doing our budgets now as I'm sure you hear from everyone when they do these calls at this time of year. Our goal is still the same that we've said in the past, which is we still would like to see net reductions in the overall expense base. We are in a unique position in that, I would say in two ways. First of all, we do have the significant amount that we're spending on regulatory orders and we're not assuming that we get efficiencies out of that in the near future. But one day when we built all that's required, that will be an opportunity for us, but that's not even on the radar screen for us right now. But we still have just tremendous excess expenses across the Company. You can see it in headcount. You can see it inefficiency ratios across the businesses. And what I found here is the same thing I think that Mike and I've seen that a lot of other places, which is it's like peeling an onion back. You think you see what's incredibly clear. Once you actually get rid of those inefficiencies, you then start to see the next level and it becomes part of the culture. And we engage the entire Company is moving that way. So we still think that there extremely meaningful efficiencies that we can pursue for quite some time here which hopefully will both allow us to have net reductions, but also invest appropriately, whether it's in technology or products which, as we've said we're extremely focused on as well.

Scott Siefers

Analyst

Perfect. Thank you very much. And then, I was hoping, Mike, you might be able to expand on comment you made about loan growth, or excuse me, loan demand improving later in the quarter. There seems to be a little bit of a divergence emerging between the demand we're seeing it in say smaller and middle-market companies, for instance, versus what we're seeing with larger corporates that might have better access to the capital markets. Curious if you could just provide a little more color on where you're seeing that improved demand, please.

Michael Santomassimo

Analyst

Yeah. And I assume we will see some divergence across different -- some of the peers as you look at this. But if you look at the Commercial Bank as an example, we're actually seeing the demand in the pipeline build in the middle and upper end of the client-base, with a little bit less of demand emerging so far on the lower end, which I know is contrary to what you -- the way you asked the question. But I think that's what we're seeing right now. And I think in part that's because the clients in the lower end of our client base still have a lot of excess liquidity and they're still dealing with supply chain crunches and other issues that are sort of impacting their need for liquidity and their need for credit. And so I think that'll -- we'll start to see more demand I think more consistently across the client base over time as things play out, that's what we're seeing in the commercial bank. I think when you look more broadly and you look at the consumer side, we have seen balances grow on auto, we've seen them in card. When you look through the home lending data that we give you, we are seeing growth on our kind of core, non-conforming mortgage book as well. That's offset by the declines in loans that we bought out from securities last year. But we are seeing some growth there, too. And then, you see some growth in the commercial -- in the corporate investment bank. And that's really a little bit of a lot of things happening across the corporate Investment Bank, whether it's real estate, subscription, finance, and other sectors that are really driving some of that growth. And so again, it's still relatively modest so far in terms of what we've seen, and I think it will take some more time for it to really play out in a more meaningful way. But it's encouraging to start to see at least a little bit manifest so far. And I would just encourage you to make sure that you look at the period end balances as well as the averages because it gets -- it certainly gets to the heart of the question. And then just one final thing I'll say on these switches, we're not stretching in any way in terms of credit or pricing or things like that to try and get to a result. We're continuing to the same disciplines that we've always had. And it's going to be a question of no balances are rising because of greater customer activity.

Scott Siefers

Analyst

That's terrific. Thank you, guys very much.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Ken Usdin of Jefferies. Your line is open.

Kenneth Usdin

Analyst

Hey, guys. Thanks. Good morning. Just wondering, Mike, if you could just talk a little bit about just some of the ins and outs on underneath NII outside from balance sheet movements, meaning you saw a little bit of increase in premium, and can you just remind us like how that mechanism works in terms of what rates we need to do to have ongoing improvement there. And are you at the point -- how closer to the point where your incremental purchases or replacements on the securities book are getting closer to what's rolling off? Thanks.

Michael Santomassimo

Analyst

Yes. Thanks, Ken. I think when you think about premium amortization, I think you said it backward, but like we're getting a benefit from premium amortization coming down in the quarter. And you saw that in our results is roughly $90 million a little bit, maybe a couple of bucks less, but and so we expect as we've been saying, we expect that to continue to come down. I think it will be somewhat gradual as we look at the next couple of quarters. You're not going to see big step-downs. I think it'll come down again in the fourth quarter, maybe a little less than we saw from the second to the third quarter. As rates, as you've seen over the last three months, rates have been a little all over the place. It's a bit of a function of where mortgage rates are and there's a little lag to it as it comes through the data. But we still expect the general trajectory to be coming down on premium amortization. It's just a matter of exactly how fast and over what time period that'll happen. I think on the second part of the question, what was the second part again, Ken, the --

Kenneth Usdin

Analyst

Just about reinvestment rates versus the underlying portfolio and the securities book.

Michael Santomassimo

Analyst

Yeah. No. And again, I -- even on that, I keep reminding people as you look at the third quarter, rates were much, much lower than they are today for most of the second quarter. And so, really, we've seen them rally at the tail end of the quarter and stabilize to come down slightly since then over the last week or so. That gap is closing, obviously, in terms of what's rolling off and getting closer to the overall average in the portfolio, but we still have a little way to go for rate to -- for reinvestment rates to match what's rolling out of the portfolio.

Kenneth Usdin

Analyst

Okay. Got it. And just last quick one. Just long-term debt you've been meaningfully reducing the footprint and helped by that mix, improving on the balance sheet is. How much more of an opportunity is that to continue to lower the long-term debt footprint and reduce the cost of it? Thanks, Mike.

Michael Santomassimo

Analyst

Yeah. No. It's a good question and I think our constraints going to be TLAC, you know, how much TLAC we have to hold. And I think you can probably model that out a little bit. So we have a little bit more room to go to continue to optimize the mix here and bring the long-term debt down. But it's likely at some point -- it's likely at some point next year, that'll start to change.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Steven Chubak of Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Steven Chubak

Analyst

Hi, good afternoon. I'd ask a follow-up on Ken's last line of questioning around the NII outlook. And if I take all the different component pieces that you mentioned, it is stored in the blender. So more constructive loan growth commentary, some modest but steady premium, and benefit, but still some reinvestment headwinds. Is it reasonable to expect that you can grow NII versus the lower end of the guidance range for '21 and separately, what's your appetite to deploy excess liquidity just given your excess reserves parked at the Fed, at least as a percentage of the overall balance sheet, is still quite elevated relative to many of your peers.

Michael Santomassimo

Analyst

Yes. Maybe I'll start with the second one and I'll come back to the first part, Steven. As we think about redeployment, we're still being pretty patient. And as I just mentioned to Ken's question, you look at what's been happening over the last few months. Rates were much lower, they rallied recently. At the same time, the basis between treasuries and mortgages is actually compressed a bit so made them a little bit relatively more expensive. And so I think -- so we're -- and if you look at what's happening in inflation and with tapering coming and we still think that there's more risk to upside on rates than there is downside at this point. And so we're still being patient as we sort of look at our redeployment there. And when opportunities present themselves, we'll take advantage of them and we did that a little bit right at the end of the third quarter where we accelerated some purchases that we were making given the spike in the rally that we saw there. And so we'll continue to do that, but we're going to be patient as we see how things develop over the coming months. If you try to think about the range for the full year, we've been giving a range for a reason because there's a lot of moving pieces and there's still a few months to play out. And I think if we obviously see a faster loan growth than we expect, that'll be a positive. If we see rates move a little bit higher than what the forward curve has, that'll be positive. We still have to, just to keep up with where the securities portfolio we have a lot of purchases to make in the fourth quarter. And so where rates end up throughout will be important. And then on the margin, there's things like PPP and other factors that sort of drive that and that will be determined based on the client forgiveness trends that we see in our client base. So I think there are scenarios where we could be a little bit better than what we projected there, and there's some scenarios where we could be a little bit worse depending on how all those factors play out.

Steven Chubak

Analyst

And that's great color. Thanks for taking my question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question will come from John McDonald of Autonomous Research. Your line is open.

John McDonald

Analyst

Hi, I wanted to follow up on the expenses. When we think about the aspiration for expenses to be down next year and understanding that you've gone through budgeting and that's a goal right now, Mike is that -- can we think of it Is that your goal relative to the 53.5 and wouldn't include help from the business exits.

Michael Santomassimo

Analyst

Yeah, John. We think about the business exits just separate from the core efficiency we're driving. And for lack of a better way to describe it, if we think that there's going to be a savings of X dollars as these businesses roll off, take the 53.5% and subtract the X and that'll be the new -- our new goal in your starting place. When we gave you a high level, some detail about that in April, and when these close and we've got good clarity on it, we'll be very transparent about how to reset the baseline and starting point.

John McDonald

Analyst

Sure. And in terms of you expecting gains on sales, I assume those are -- you thinking the same lines, and those should probably come in the fourth quarter is what you're currently thinking?

Michael Santomassimo

Analyst

They may not all be in the fourth quarter given how the deals were structured, not 100% of the gains will be in the fourth quarter, but a good chunk of it will be in the fourth quarter. And obviously, we'll be clear on what that was when it happens.

John McDonald

Analyst

Okay. And the last thing for me is if we want to dream about loan growth coming back for the industry, how do we think about how much capacity you have to grow loans while staying under the asset cap and where does that come from? Does it come from cash liquidity mix and moving other stuff around the balance sheet. Can you just give us some thoughts on that?

Michael Santomassimo

Analyst

We all dream of faster loan growth. I think we're aligned there like. I think we've got plenty of room to grow on the loan side and whether it comes initially from cash that's sitting at the FED or -- that would be the first place. But if we needed to, we could reduce the securities portfolio as well if it grew much faster than what we expected, that would be a nice problem to have. But at this point, we have plenty of capacity to grow.

John McDonald

Analyst

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala of Bank of America. Your line is open.

Ebrahim Poonawala

Analyst

Hey, good morning. I guess just one big picture question, Charlie. Appreciate you mentioning the risk of setbacks as you go through the whole regulatory process. At the same time, when we talk to investors, I think there is a [Indiscernible] the longer you stay within that asset cap. I was wondering if you could address just in terms of when we think about the franchise, both from a talent and client standpoint, how what it should your shareholders be about that? Or do you think that's well taken care of?

Charles Scharf

Analyst

Well, I think it's well -- I would say I do think it's well taken care of? I'll start there, but I think we think about it. We think about it every day that we take actions to stay below the cap. I think as Mike just spoke about, we have significant room on the asset side of the balance sheet, which is we really want to be there for clients where they need you. And so when you're out hustling for business, we're certainly able to fulfill their needs on it doesn't matter whether it's consumer or whether it's a corporate. Our experience has been that we continue to find ways to optimize the balance sheet in a way that has very little client impact. And where we have to move deposits off the balance sheet, we work with customers to come up with other off-balance sheet solutions for them. And I think my experience has been that customers are very, very understanding of what that is. Again as we think about -- and by the way, we have not limited the growth of deposits on the consumer side at all. When we think about the more long-term impacts, I think we certainly would have liked to have been in a different position if we had a choice, but we're trying to be very smart about having as little franchise impact as possible when we make these decisions and make sure we're communicating with customers. I think the people here at Wells have done an amazing job of striking that right balance. And as I said, I think we're as open for businesses anyone on the asset side. I think customers appreciate that as well.

Ebrahim Poonawala

Analyst

Thanks for shedding that perspective. And just one quick one, Mike, on the NII. When we look at the fourth quarter, you on your full-year guidance, should -- does the net of all of that implied that fourth-quarter NII should at least grow from third-quarter levels? And can you disclose what the PPP impact was for the third quarter NII number?

Michael Santomassimo

Analyst

Yes. I think on the fourth quarter, you can model based on what your assumptions are. And as I've said, will be near the bottom of the range and you can pick where you think we will be based on how you feel about it. I think for third quarter, the PPP impact was about a 115 million. And just to give you a little context, that was a little bit lower than what we saw in the second quarter and we would expect the fourth quarter to be a little bit lower than that potentially, but that will be -- all be based on how clients -- the pace of forgiveness request that we get from clients. But overall, a pretty small sequential impact. And that's always our forecast.

Ebrahim Poonawala

Analyst

Understood. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from John Pancari of Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

John Pancari

Analyst

Good morning. On the expense side, how should we think about the timing and the magnitude of the remaining 4.3 billion in cost saves? And would you say that any of the latest regulatory developments impacted how you're thinking about the magnitude or the timing of the realization of those saves? Thanks.

Michael Santomassimo

Analyst

Yeah, John, it's Mike. as we said in beginning of the year, we were going to get about 3.7 billion of the 8 billion this year and the annualized impact starts to build as you go through the year. So some of that you get in the run rate coming out of 2021. And some of that will take more time to get at. And as I mentioned, where we have to introduce new technology or other new capabilities, it just takes longer to get at some of it. And as we said in the beginning of the year, this is a multi-year plan, so we're not going to get all of that in the first 12 months by any stretch. And as we get to January, we'll give you a better view of what to expect in 2022.

John Pancari

Analyst

Okay. Got it. And then separately on the loan front, can you just maybe give us more detail on trends you're seeing in the card business, including spending volume as well as payment rates. And then separately, any thoughts on the impact of the buy now, pay later product on how you're thinking about your product set. Thanks.

Michael Santomassimo

Analyst

Yeah, I think when you look at payment rates, they're still really high. They bounce around a little bit month-to-month in the last quarter. So -- but they're still really high. And so, what you are getting -- When you look at the balance growth you're seeing, you're really getting that through an increase in the point-of-sale purchase volumes that are coming through. Charlie highlighted a bunch of stats based on what we're seeing in the book, but I'd say, overall, spend patterns, spend is pretty -- still pretty strong, pretty stable from where we saw in the second quarter up versus the comparable periods last year or in 2019. And as you'd expect, in any given week or month, or quarter, the different categories move around quite a bit depending on what's happening based on that time period. And then I think when you look at, as you can see, that point-of-sale volumes dropped 24% from the quarter a year ago, 4% sequentially. And you can see the new account growth which is up quite a bit under 50% from a year ago and 63% from the second quarter, based on the new products we've launched. So I'd characterize it as still really strong activity levels despite the noise you see out there related to the Delta variant and other things.

Charles Scharf

Analyst

And on the -- this is Charlie. On buying out pay later, I would say, I would describe buy now, pay later as another option of providing credit and serving the merchant. I think as others have said, it's still overall a relatively small portion of the market. But I think it'll be a place for it, but it's not going to supplant all the other types of credit that exist out there. We have our own retail services business; we have our own personal lending business. And we've got a significant number of merchant relationships ourselves. It's a place that we will be in addition to the products that we have. And over time, my guess is it will continue. It will, seeing a proliferation of people involved now, at some time, at some point will become far more consolidated for all the reasons that these other industries have been consolidated, including those that can really provide a differentiated experience for the merchant. So hopefully that helps.

John Pancari

Analyst

Thanks, Charlie. Appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Matt O'Connor of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Matthew O’Connor: Hey guys. Charlie, I wanted to follow up again on the comment about likely to have additional setbacks and the regulatory stuff. And just to push here for a little bit, if you don't mind, is this kind of like a broad risks statement just in case, like "you never know, " or should we just be prepared for something more meaningful whether it's a speed bomb or potential landmine between here and specifically the end of the asset cap, which I think everyone views key turning point?

Charles Scharf

Analyst

You know, I guess -- I would describe it this way. Everyone focuses on the asset cap, and I understand all the reasons for that, for sure. And I think just what's important to us is that we want to make sure that there's complete transparency, which we believe we have if you read our 10-Q. But also, we want to make sure that you're just thinking about the broad set of things that we're dealing with. And the reality is the asset cap embedded in the FED consent order is one very important order. But we still have other consent orders with other agencies which are still extraordinarily important. We have other inquiries that are in progress that are described in there. I just think it's important that we're completely transparent. It's nothing different than what we've been saying. And when you talk about [Indiscernible] versus land mines, hopefully, we all work to make sure that we minimize the likelihood of a land mine. But as I said before, there's the interconnectedness, just the pure number of things that we have to do are complex. We're judged on practices that were in place years ago, as well as practices that are in place today. And we're judged based upon the overall progress, based upon the initial due dates of some of these things. So nothing changes my perspective about net now that we're moving forward. I absolutely believe we are. Again, we have -- we're able to see all the internal metrics every interim date, and things like that, which the outsiders can't see. But we choose our words very carefully on things like that, so I just want to make sure that people understand that we have these things that are out there and don't want you to be surprised if something happens, but it doesn't change our point of view of what the opportunity is and how confident we are about being able to close these things. Matthew O’Connor: And as a follow-up, I know you can't tell us what the conversation content is with the regulators. But can you at least tell us, do you have what the point of conversation like on the asset cap, we submitted the plan, you accepted that. Like how long does this going to take? Like, is there -- we all just on the outside of trying to understand like what the level of communication is because I think on some fronts, there's a large communication, like the OCC, I think, sits in all the banks and offices, so there's a lot of regular communication there. But with the FED and the asset cap is like -- is there any conversation about it even if you can't tell us?

Charles Scharf

Analyst

A couple of things. First of all, we have and I think this is not just us, I think this is true of all banks. We have regular conversations with all of our regulators. Absolutely, with the OCC, as you say there, many examiners in our offices on a regular basis. But we have an extremely open and interactive relationship with the CFPB, with the FED, with the FDIC, and all other appropriate regulators, including the SEC, FINRA, overseas regulators. That is the way we treat the relationships. I have found the FED to be clear, consistent in their approach to issues that relate to supervision. I think this is just a general comment that I would say. I haven't seen things deviate from that. And as I've said, when you look at the consent order, it doesn't say submit a plan. And then we'll talk about lifting the asset cap. It describes in there, what we have to do. And so, you just assume that there is -- we have a constant level of engagement that we're really clear on what we have to do. And we're doing the work to get there. Matthew O’Connor: Okay. That's helpful color. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Gerard Cassidy of RBC. Your line is open.

Gerard Cassidy

Analyst

Thank you. Mike, can you share with us your credit quality is very strong similar to many in the industry. Your net charge-off ratio, of course, was an incredibly low 12 basis points. Do you have an idea of how long you could sustain such a strong level of net charge-offs. and when you may want -- when it may reach a more normalized level of sometimes looking out. And then second, your reserves relative to loans, I think we're about a 170 basis points and when we go back to that day, one [Indiscernible] number that you guys put out in January of 2020, it was about 93 basis points and that difference, [Indiscernible] at the widest of all your peers. So any thoughts on just where the reserve could go as well? Thank you.

Michael Santomassimo

Analyst

Thanks, Gerard. A couple of things. I think so far, we've all, I think, in the industry have been wrong about when credit or how credit will normalize. And at some point, I think we all expect that we're going to get back to more normal charge-off rates. Having said that, the new normal might be different if people, keep higher sustained higher liquidity balances throughout time. So I think that's something that still play out. I think at this point, as Charlie highlighted in his script that we still -- people still have high liquidity balances. We're seeing high payout chart, pay-off rates in credit cards and other loans. And so, there's no reason to think that we shouldn't continue to have strong credit performance in the near term. 12 bases may -- they may not be 12 basis points, but it should still be historically quite strong, at least in the near term. And we will see how it starts to normalize. I think as it really -- Let me add one thing on that. I just think when we think about long-term earnings power of the Company and we talk about our ability to get to sustainable return numbers, we assume that the charge-off number will go up from there. So we agree it's extremely low, that it won't stay here. And as you think about when we think about our returns, we make adjustments for that. And so, if they do start to rise next year, then it will be hopefully in our assumptions, and if not, then we'll get there sooner maybe, but we'll explain why. And as it relates to the coverage ratio today, as we've said for the last couple of quarters, we continue to be reserved for whole number of different scenarios and hopefully will prove out to be very conservative relative to what plays out over the coming quarters. And if we continue to see trends continue, we'll have more releases as we go. I think whether you get back to a day one, seasonal levels or not, I think is a really almost impossible question to answer, given it's going to be a function of all the variables you now have to consider, and what your outlook is, what the different risks are at that time. And if you go back to first quarter of 2020, I think we had with 3.5% unemployment at that point, and it was a very [Indiscernible], I think pre - COVID it was a very Utopian environment I think from an economic perspective. And so will we get it back to exactly that outlook, hard to say. But I think we continue to think if things play out, we'll have more releases and that number will go down.

Gerard Cassidy

Analyst

Very good. And then as a follow-up, can you give us an update in the middle market investment banking initiatives? How successfully you guys been in penetrating your existing customer base?

Michael Santomassimo

Analyst

Yeah, I know -- we've highlighted, Gerard, we think that's a really big opportunity over a long period of time, but it doesn't happen in a quarter or two. It takes some time to really make sure that we've got those relationships built out in the way we want. We really started to put some extra focus on it in a very disciplined way late last year, so I'd say we're still early. I think we're seeing some encouraging green shoots where we've had some opportunities that we've won over the last few months or a couple of quarters that we might not have been in a position to have before that, but it'll take some time to play out, but we do think the opportunity is pretty big.

Gerard Cassidy

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Betsy Graseck of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Betsy Graseck

Analyst

Hi, how are you doing?

Charles Scharf

Analyst

Hey, Betsy.

Betsy Graseck

Analyst

Two questions. One on branch network, just wanted to get your updated thoughts on how you see your footprint today, and is there more of an opportunity to expand or to optimize?

Charles Scharf

Analyst

That's a good question, Betsy. I think we're actually doing a bunch of work on exactly what that looks like because we have been very, very focused on net reductions given the fact that we were behind some others. And so the team has done a great work and just terms of identifying, what I will describe as just we had a significant number of very obvious consolidation opportunities they're really not closures, which typically they're really consolidation where we have the appropriate local coverage. I think the work that we're doing is we -- is to really think through, at this point, where we have significant share, where we have less share, but we have enough concentration. What our footprint looks like in some of those places to figure out how we can actually reorient the existing number of branches that we have over a period of time. So I think the reality is we will continue to optimize because as time goes on, we will continue too needless. We're focused on not leaving communities that need our help without solutions. We're going to certainly wind up with smaller footprints in a lot of the places because branch usage is changing. But we will use that as an opportunity to figure out how to redeploy some of those resources as well.

Betsy Graseck

Analyst

Okay. Now, I have a same question on your wealth platform. I know you recently brought in Barry to run that and just want to understand the strategy there if you don't mind.

Charles Scharf

Analyst

Sure. I think we've got [Indiscernible] falls into four distinct buckets. Number one, is we have our -- think of it as our independent broker channel where it's the old [Indiscernible] words and businesses like that, [Indiscernible] that came together to form that network. We have then financial advisors that work extremely closely with our bank branches and believe that's still a relatively untapped opportunity for us. We also have a platform where brokers can actually go -- and when I say independent those are wrong phrase, in the beginning, those are people who are employees, but we have a platform where people can actually go independent and continue to do the business through us. And then, we have our online business, WellsTrade. And so we've got those distinct different points of distribution. And we're focused equally on maximizing the value that existed in all of those. Historically, I think we ran it much more as just one big opportunity. And I think we feel like we have underinvested in the online piece and the independent piece for sure. And the bank branch piece is something which we think is just, as I said, just a very meaningful opportunity given the amount of [Indiscernible] customers that we have in our branch footprint.

Betsy Graseck

Analyst

Thanks.

Michael Santomassimo

Analyst

Thanks, Betsy.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Once again, if you would like to ask a question, [Operator Instructions]. Our next question comes from Vivek Juneja of JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Vivek Juneja

Analyst

Hi Charlie. Going to go back to the regulatory consent orders. Want to get a sense from you. Given the setback we had this quarter with the additional consent order, you've obviously spent a lot on these, you’ve hired -- you brought in a lot of folks already since you've been there over the last two years and a lot of consultants, a lot of in-house people. So what do you need to do differently, especially as a management team, to not have more of those setbacks and to have it go in the direction you were hoping it would go with this?

Charles Scharf

Analyst

Yes. I would say there's nothing new that we have to do as far as reaching an endpoint. So if you said pre-consent order or post-consent order, does it change what we have to do to build out the right capabilities with the right controls, in this case, in mortgage? The answer is absolutely not. And so again, whether or not it's being done fast enough, in the regulators minds relative to how long some of these things have been going on, which predate many of us. That's the context which they need to look at this end. Because that's who they regulate and how they have regulated. So again, I think for us, and I'm not minimizing a consent order. Consent order is a very big deal. But the work that's embedded in there, the end-state, is the same end-state that we would have contemplated. Building ourselves. And so there's a lot more formality that's part of the process now, in the OCC will be more deeply involved in the series of the checkpoints, and things like that. And there certainly is some more work that comes out of an exercise like that. But the end-state is the same.

Vivek Juneja

Analyst

And so when you say, several years, Charlie, and should we think that in terms of as in three-year timeframe, is that five-year timeframe just -- you're right, we've all been dealing with this before you got there, so there's already been 5 plus years, so any sense of direction there?

Charles Scharf

Analyst

I think this -- and I don't want to -- in the perfect world, we'd lay out all of our plans for everyone, but we're obviously not in a position to do that. And I think what I would just encourage you to do is look at the things that we've closed. Hopefully, you'll continue to see progress as we look forward and you'll be able to draw judgments based upon that. And relative to what it means for our business. As I said, we still have a fair amount of flexibility in order for us to grow fee-based businesses and grow businesses that require balance sheet usage on the asset side. I can't give you any more specificity other than we don't want to mislead people. And it's not as if we're not thinking about the future. And so again, we try and be very careful not to weigh too much on one side or the other. But we've got a lot of people here that serve customers every day and every single person isn't working on a consent order. Many are, we got a huge number of resources that are dedicated to it. But as you see, we're building products in the card business. We are building products in our retail services business. We're doing the same across the digital platforms across the Company. And as we execute on these items, you build the confidence of the regulators. So it's not as if you have to wait until everything is completely done to be able to continue to move forward, not just with your confidence, but with their confidence in as well. And so, hopefully, in terms of the progress that we believe we're making, that's what we're seeing. And so, you'll see us put all the resources towards these things to minimize the timeframe, but get them done properly at the same time that we're moving the business forward.

Vivek Juneja

Analyst

Thanks [Indiscernible]

Operator

Operator

At this time, we have no further questions and I'd like to turn the call back over to management.

John Campbell

Analyst

Great. [Indiscernible], thank you all for the time today. We appreciate it. And we're all here to answer any follow-up questions you have to take care.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your participation on today's conference call. At this time, all parties may disconnect.