John R. Shrewsberry
Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead
Thanks, Tim, and good morning everyone. We highlight the noteworthy items that impacted our preliminary results on Slide 2. Our revenue included a $643 million gain from sales of Pick-a-Pay PCI mortgage loans; $250 million in mark-to-market unrealized equity gains due to the new financial instruments accounting standard, which I'll discuss a little later on the call; a $202 million gain on the sale of Wells Fargo Shareowner Services; and $176 million reduction from a LOCOM adjustment relating to $1.9 billion of loans transferred to held-for-sale. Our expenses included $781 million [indiscernible] seasonally higher personnel expense, and $668 million of operating losses, largely litigation accruals. Our results also included a $550 million reserve release, driven by a significantly improved outlook on hurricane related losses. And our effective income tax rate in the first quarter was 18.8%. On Page 3 we provide an update on the Consent Order. Tim mentioned, we submitted governance and oversight, and compliance and operational risk management program plans to the Federal Reserve. We take the Consent Order seriously and we'll work to fully satisfy all of the Consent Order's requirements. We are focused on compliance with the Consent Order's asset cap and maintaining liquidity and other financial risk management targets, while minimizing the impact to our customers, minimizing adverse long-term strategic effects, and maintaining our financial risk discipline. With nearly $2 trillion in total assets, we believe we can meet our customers' financial needs and continue to deliver strong results without growing our balance sheet in the near term. As a reminder, prior to the Consent Order, we were already focused on reducing our exposure to riskier assets including certain legacy consumer real estate loans and near-prime and sub-prime auto loans. We have also maintained our credit risk discipline for new originations in commercial real estate during a period of high liquidity and increased competition, resulting in four consecutive quarters of lower balances. Our balance sheet declined $36.4 billion from year-end, primarily due to a $32 billion decline in commercial deposits from financial institutions, including approximately $15 billion of actions taken to comply with the Consent Order asset cap. The earnings impact of managing within the asset cap was modest in the first quarter due to the minimal actions we needed to take. We'd expect the earnings impact to increase in subsequent quarters but we continue to estimate that the net income after tax impact will be $300 million to $400 million for the full year of 2018. I'm going to highlight much of what's on Page 4 later on the call, so let me just point out that the decline in deposits drove the $20 billion reduction in cash and short-term investments in the first quarter, and the decline in stockholders' equity was driven by a $2.8 billion decline in [OCI] [ph], resulting primarily from higher rates. I will be highlighting our income statement drivers on Page 5 throughout the call, so let me just mention that we adopted new accounting standards in the first quarter, which we summarized on Page 17 and 18 of the earnings release. I'll summarize here the two most significant impacts. With the adoption of the new recognition and measurement of financial instruments standard, all equities, including those previously classified as AFS, are now required to be mark-to-market to earnings each quarter, and as a result in the first quarter we recognized $250 million of unrealized gains on equity securities. This accounting standard will increase volatility and while the impact this quarter was positive, in future quarters the impact could be negative or positive. The second one is the adoption of a new revenue recognition standard, which didn't significantly impact our bottom line results but it does change where some of the revenue and expense items are reported. The most meaningful change for us is card fees. In the first quarter, card fees were reduced by $43 million due to card payment network charges which were previously reported in outside data processing expense now being netted against related interchange and network fees. Turning to loans on Page 6, average loans declined $798 million from the fourth quarter, with commercial loan growth of $1.8 billion more than offset by a $2.6 billion decline in consumer loans. The decline in loan balances were not related to any actions we took in connection with the Consent Order but was driven by opportunistic or strategic loan sales, seasonality, and continued declines in certain portfolios that we've been reducing for some time including auto, Pick-a-Pay mortgage, and junior lien mortgage loans. I'll summarize the specific drivers of period-end loan declines starting on Page 7, but let me first point out that the average loan yields increased to 4.5% in the first quarter, the highest yield since the fourth quarter of 2012. Commercial loans were relatively flat compared with fourth quarter, with C&I loans up $1.6 billion offset by continued declines in commercial real estate due to continued credit discipline in a competitive highly liquid financing market as well as ongoing paydowns on existing and acquired loans. Consumer loans declined $9.5 billion [indiscernible] fourth quarter. The first mortgage loans were down $1.4 billion, driven by sales of $1.6 billion of Pick-a-Pay PCI loans. The sales were consistent with our ongoing evaluation of non-strategic portfolios and were similar to the decision to sell part of the Pick-a-Pay portfolio in the second quarter of last year. We continue to have growth in high-quality non-conforming loans, which were up $3.2 billion from the fourth quarter. Junior lien mortgage loans continue to decline as paydowns more than offset new originations. Credit card loans declined $1.9 billion from the fourth quarter from seasonality, consistent with the decline we had in the first quarter of 2017. Balances increased $1.4 billion from the first quarter of 2017 due to higher purchase volume, and 11% growth in new accounts reflecting higher bonus offers, and a 55% increase in digital channel acquisitions. 43% of new credit card accounts in the first quarter were originated through digital channels. Our new credit cards have higher balances, 31% higher than a year ago. We expect credit card balances to grow as we continue to focus on digital channels and customer engagement. Auto loans were down $3.8 billion from the fourth quarter and included the transfer of $1.6 billion of loans to held-for-sale as a result of the pending sale of certain assets of Reliable Financial Services, a Puerto Rican subsidiary of our auto business. This sale is expected to close in the second quarter. After declining for five consecutive quarters, auto originations have stabilized the last two quarters. With the completion of the centralization of our collection and funding activities, which Tim highlighted earlier, we're now positioned to start to increase originations over time and currently expect the portfolio of balances to begin growing in early 2019. Average deposits declined $14.4 billion from the fourth quarter, driven by lower commercial deposits. Average consumer and small business banking deposits declined $2.1 billion as higher community bank deposits were more than offset by lower deposits in Wealth and Investment Management, reflecting movement into other investments. Our average deposit cost increased 6 basis points from the fourth quarter and was up 17 basis points from a year ago, versus the 75 basis point change in the Fed fund's rate. The increase in our average deposit cost was driven by increases in commercial and Wealth and Investment Management deposit rates, while rates paid on consumer and small business banking deposits have remained stable. Since the increase in interest rates began at the end of 2015, [indiscernible] price-sensitive commercial deposits have been relatively consistent with the prior interest rate cycles, and we expect this trend to continue. It's important to note that our commercial deposits include a high percentage from financial institutions which drive our deposit betas higher as most of these deposits have betas of almost 100%. The response rate in Wealth and Investment Management has increased over the past couple of quarters but is still somewhat below historical trends, although we expect it to increase over time. While other consumer [indiscernible] banking deposit pricing has not yet responded to rate movements, we expect deposit betas in that category will start to increase. However, the timing of the increase is difficult to predict. Net interest income in the first quarter declined $75 million from the fourth quarter. The drivers of this reduction included an approximately $160 million decline from two fewer days in the quarter, $148 million from hedge ineffectiveness accounting, and $144 million in lower swap-related income related to the receive-fixed loan swap position that we finished unwinding early in the first quarter. These declines were partially offset by the net repricing benefit of higher interest rates. Our NIM was stable at 2.84% as the impact of hedge ineffectiveness accounting and lower swap income was offset by the repricing benefit of higher rates. I also wanted to update that impacts from the tax act reduced our NIM by 4 basis points in both the fourth quarter from a one-time adjustment related to leverage leases and in the first quarter primarily from a decline in tax equivalent yield on municipal bonds. We expect the reduction in tax equivalent yield that we recorded this quarter to remain at approximately the same level throughout the rest of the year, and while it should not impact linked quarter trends, it will reduce year-over-year trends by approximately 4 basis points. We highlighted on the call last quarter that we had started to unwind our receive-fixed commercial loan swaps, which provided a hedge against lower rates, and we completed that unwind in the first quarter. The cost of unwinding the swaps, which was approximately $1 billion, will be amortized through C&I interest income over the remaining life of the original contracts, which is approximately three years on average. It's important to note that during the extended period of low interest rates since the swaps are entered into, they generated incremental net income of approximately $3 billion. While the elimination of these swaps will reduce interest income in 2018, it has increased our asset sensitivity to be slightly above the middle of our previously provided guidance of 5 to 15 basis points for a 100 basis point parallel shift in the yield curve and is expected to improve interest income in future periods as interest rates increase. From an interest rate risk management standpoint, we are fairly well-balanced and we will generally perform better in both higher and steeper interest rate environments. We have much larger repricing exposure for both assets and liabilities at the front-end of the curve and our earnings simulations are particularly dependent on deposit rate betas given the scale of that funding source. While we have significantly less assets and liabilities with repricing exposure at the long end of the curve, our net asset sensitivity to long-term rates is a meaningful part of our overall asset sensitivity profile. This sensitivity reflects both the reinvestment and premium amortization that occurs in our long-term debt securities and loan portfolios. Noninterest income declined $41 million from the fourth quarter. While the dollar decline was minimal, I want to spend some time describing the different drivers. Starting with deposit service charges, the $73 million decline from fourth quarter was driven largely by the impact of customer-friendly initiatives, including the first full quarter impact of Overdraft Rewind. Card fees declined $88 million from the fourth quarter. The new revenue recognition standard reduced these fees by $43 million. The rest of the decline was driven by seasonality. Mortgage banking results were in line with the fourth quarter. Servicing income increased $206 million, driven by higher net MSR valuation gains, lower unreimbursed servicing costs, and lower payoffs. Residential mortgage origination revenue declined $200 million from the seasonal declines in originations with volumes down $10 billion from the fourth quarter. We expect originations to increase in the second quarter, reflecting seasonality in the purchase market. The production margin in the first quarter was 94 basis points, down from 125 basis points in the fourth quarter. Approximately two-thirds of the margin decline was driven by market competition and the remaining one-third was driven by a higher percentage of corresponding originations in the first quarter which is significantly lower margins but also lower cost. Given current market pricing trends, we would expect our production margin to continue to decline into the second quarter. The $109 million decline in insurance fees was due to the sale of Wells Fargo Insurance Services in November. Finally, other income was up $44 million. The first quarter included a total of $845 million of gains from the sale of Pick-a-Pay PCI loan portfolios and Wells Fargo Shareowner Services and the fourth quarter included an $848 million gain on the sale of Wells Fargo Insurance Services. Turning to expenses on Page 12, expenses declined $2.6 billion from the fourth quarter, largely driven by $2.9 billion of lower operating losses. On Page 13 I'll explain the drivers in more detail. The $594 million increase from the fourth quarter in compensation and benefits expense reflected $781 million of seasonally higher personnel expenses, in line with the seasonal increase last year. The seasonally higher personnel expenses will decline in the second quarter but salary expense is expected to grow reflecting increases which became effective late in the first quarter. Revenue related expenses declined $233 million from lower commissions and incentive compensation, primarily in Wholesale Banking and home lending. Third-party services were down $213 million, primarily from lower project-related spend which is typically higher in the fourth quarter and from lower legal expenses. The $2.6 billion decline in running the business non-discretionary [indiscernible] category reflected lower operating losses. On Page 14 we show the drivers of the $450 million year to year increase in expenses. Compensation and benefits expense increased $143 million, primarily due to salary increases and higher employee benefits expense, partially offset by the sale of Wells Fargo Insurance Services [indiscernible] reductions in Wholesale Banking. Our total FTE were down 3% from a year ago and also reflected lower FTE in Community Banking and consumer lending. The increase in expenses was also driven by a $386 million increase in higher operating losses from an increase in litigation accruals. On Page 15 we highlight the expected full-year 2018 total expense range, which has not changed since we provided it last quarter. The range of $53.5 billion to $54.5 billion includes approximately $600 million of typical operating losses and excludes any outsized litigation and remediation accruals and penalties. We will provide a dollar range for 2019 expenses at our Investor Day in May. Last quarter on our earnings call, we said that we expected to achieve a quarterly efficiency ratio with a 59 handle by the end of 2018. However, that expectation was prior to the issuance of the Consent Order. The expected decline in revenue from the balance sheet actions needed to comply with the Consent Order's asset cap will likely result in our efficiency ratio remaining above 59% throughout this year. However, we are still on track to achieve our targeted $4 billion of expense reductions by the end of 2019. As a reminder, this does not include the completion of core deposit intangible amortization expense at the end of this year, which will amount to $769 million in 2018. It also doesn't include the completion of the FDIC special assessment, which we expect should happen by the end of this year. Finally, it doesn't include expense savings due to business divestitures, which we highlight on Page [indiscernible]. We provided a similar page last quarter, which we have updated to include the sale of Wells Fargo Shareowner Services in the first quarter. Turning to our segments, starting on Page 17, Community Banking earned $2.7 billion in the first quarter. The majority of the benefit from the tax act was included in Community Banking results in the fourth quarter, which was the primary reason for the linked quarter decline in earnings. On Page 18 we provided our Community Banking metrics. The primary consumer checking customer annual attrition rate was at the lowest level in five years and we've now had modest year-over-year growth in primary consumer checking customers for two consecutive quarters. On Page 19 we highlight strong growth in credit and debit card purchase volume, both up 8% from a year ago. As Tim highlighted, customer loyalty survey scores reached their highest levels since August of 2016 and overall satisfaction with most recent survey visit – overall satisfaction with the most recent visit survey scores continue to improve. Our team members have made great progress by focusing on customer service and providing exceptional service remains a priority. We know that exceptional customer service leads to positive outcome, so we continue to reinforce that within our branches. Turning to Page 20, Wholesale Banking earned $2.9 billion in the first quarter. Lower taxes drove both linked-quarter and year-over-year increases in net income. Wealth and Investment Management earned $714 million in the first quarter, and similar to Wholesale Banking, the lower tax rate drove the growth in [net income] [ph]. Turning to Page 22, our credit performance remained strong in the first quarter and our loss rate was 32 basis points of average loans. For the second consecutive quarter, all of our commercial and consumer real estate loan portfolios were in a net recovery position, including our residential and junior lien portfolio. Nonperforming assets have declined for eight consecutive quarters and were less than 1% of total loans for the third consecutive quarter. As I highlighted earlier, we had $550 million of reserve release in the first quarter with approximately $400 million driven by a significant improvement in our outlook for 2017 hurricane related losses. As you may recall, in the third quarter of last year we increased reserve coverage by $450 million for potential hurricane related losses based on an initial review of our portfolio. The release this quarter also reflected continued improvement in residential real estate and lower loan balances. Turning to Page 23, our estimated Common Equity Tier 1 ratio fully phased-in remained flat at 12%, still well above our target of 10%. Capital generation from earnings was more than offset by approximately 20 basis points of higher unrealized losses in OCI from higher interest rates and approximately 35 basis points of capital return to common shareholders. Risk-weighted assets were modestly lower than fourth quarter. Given we are well above our internal target, we remain focused on returning more capital to shareholders and returned a record $4 billion through common stock dividends and net share repurchases in the first quarter, up 30% from a year ago. As a reminder, our share issuance in the first quarter is typically higher, reflecting annual issuances for benefit plans. Period-end common shares outstanding declined by 123 million shares or 2% from a year ago. In summary, our preliminary results in the first quarter continued to reflect strong asset quality, liquidity and capital, and we remain on track to achieve our target of $4 billion in expense saves by the end of 2019. While we continue to have some near-term challenges, we look forward to sharing more information regarding our financial outlook and the transformational changes we are making throughout Wells Fargo at Investor Day next month. And we'll now take your questions.