John Shrewsberry
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead
Thanks, Tim, and good morning, everyone. As Tim mentioned, we earned $5.8 billion in the second quarter, the 19th consecutive quarter of generating earnings greater than $5 billion. We believe this outcome reflects the benefit of our diversified business model during a period of continued modest economic growth and uncertainty regarding future interest rates. Tim described most of the year-over-year results that we show on Page 3. So I'll just highlight the decline of 82 million common shares outstanding over the past year, reflecting our strong capital return through a net share repurchases. Turning to Page 4, let me highlight a few notable balance sheet trends. Driven primarily by the expected decline in auto loans, which were down $2.5 billion from the first quarter, total loans declined $982 million from the prior quarter. As we've discussed previously, we've tightened credit underwriting standards in auto, which was reduced our origination volume down 17% from the first quarter. Cash and short-term investments declined $43.5 billion, reflecting a seasonal decline in deposits and the pay-down of wholesale funding. However, we still maintain strong liquidity levels and could deploy tens of billions of dollars and remain LCR compliant. Investment securities increased $2 million in the quarter, we had approximately $37 billion of gross purchases in the quarter, the majority of which were agency MBS. These purchases were largely offset by run-off in the sale of approximately $15 billion of lower yielding short duration securities. The $17.6 billion decrease in long-term debt was primarily driven by the prepayment of Federal Home Loan Bank advances. Turning to the income statement overview on Page 5, I'll describe revenue and expense trends later on the call. So let me just highlight that our effective tax rate in the second quarter was 27.7%. This included discrete tax benefits totaling $186 million or approximately $0.04 per share, primarily as a result of our agreement to sell Wells Fargo Insurance Services. We currently expect our full-year 2017 effective income tax rate to be approximately 29%. As shown on Page 6, the benefit from higher rates increased average loan yields 10 basis points in the quarter, the sixth consecutive quarter of increasing loan yields. We had modest average loan growth from a year-ago, up 1% and average loans declined $6.7 billion from the first quarter. H.8 data continue to indicate that there was softness across the industry, but they're also specific actions we've taken, primarily driven by our own risk discipline, which have caused our growth to slow. Let me explain the primary factors impacting our loan portfolios in some more detail. Starting with commercial C&I loans increased $1.9 billion from the first quarter. We had growth across a number of businesses, including $1.1 billion in Government and Institutional Banking, $605 million in Wells Fargo Commercial Capital, $469 million in Global Banking and modest growth in the middle market. The growth was partially offset by $620 million decline in financial institutions from actions we've taken to lower exposure in certain emerging markets and decreased demand. Capital markets activity has resulted in pay-downs in Corporate Banking. It's interesting to note that Wells Fargo Securities was involved in some capacity in all of the capital markets activity associated with the pay-downs of these loans in Corporate Banking, demonstrating the benefit of our diversified business model. The size of our oil and gas portfolio stabilized and we had $12.7 billion outstanding at the end of the second quarter. Commercial real estate loans declined $982 million from the first quarter and while we remain the largest CRE lender in the country, our growth has been modestly below that of the industry for the first half of this year. We've remained disciplined and in hearing to our underwriting standards in a competitive market. We summarize our consumer loan portfolios on Page 8. This portfolio declined $11.1 billion from a year-ago, primarily due to $7 billion of lower junior lien mortgage loans at $4 billion of lower auto loans. Let me explain the $1.9 billion linked quarter decline in consumer loan portfolio in some more detail. Our first mortgage loans increased $1.9 billion from the first quarter, reflecting $7.3 billion of growth in non-conforming mortgage loans, partially offset by the continued run-off of higher yielding legacy portfolios, including the sale of $569 million Pick-a-Pay PCI loan portfolio. Our junior lien mortgage loan portfolio continued to decline as expected as pay-downs more than offset new originations. Our credit card portfolio increased $563 million from the first quarter reflecting seasonality. Our auto portfolio continued to decline as expected and was down $2.5 billion from the first quarter. As a result of tightening underwriting standards, the quality of originations has improved with the quarterly average FICO of 719 at origination in the second quarter, up from 696 a year-ago. As we highlighted at Investor Day, we're also making a number of organizational changes in this business including a new leader. As we focus on improving execution and efficiency through increased standardization and centralization. We expect auto loans to continue to decline in the second half of this year. Other revolving credit and installment loans declined $339 million reflecting seasonality in our student loan portfolio and $190 million decline in personal loans and lines. While consumer loan growth will continue to be impacted by the actions we're taking in our auto portfolio and the expected run-off of legacy junior lien mortgage loans, we are making some modest changes to generate new loan originations, including offering interest-only jumbo mortgage loans to high quality borrowers and testing credit card offerings through our digital channels. As highlighted on Page 9, the average deposits were a record $1.3 trillion, up $64.5 billion or 5% from a year-ago and up $2 billion from the first quarter. Our deposit betas remain low with our average deposit cost up four basis points from the first quarter. While we've implemented some incremental commercial deposit repricing in line with the market was not made material changes in rates paid on consumer and small business banking deposits as we've seen very little market response in these categories. With the majority of our peers holding rates steady. We continue to monitor the overall market and we expect deposit betas will be more responsive as we move further into the rate cycle. Net interest income was a record $12.5 billion in the second quarter, up 6% from a year-ago and 1% from the first quarter. The increase from the first quarter reflected the benefit of the repricing of earning assets due to higher short-term interest rates, which exceeded the associated cost of repricing liabilities. We also benefited from one additional day in the quarter. The net interest margin increased 3 basis points to 2.9% driven by higher short-term interest rates, disciplined deposit pricing and a reduction in long-term debt, which were partially offset by the impacts from lower loan and investment securities balances. As we've previously stated, we expect NII to grow in the low to mid single digits for the full-year 2017. The rate of growth during the second half of the year will be dependent on a variety of factors including the level and slope of the yield curve as well as deposit betas and earning asset growth trends. Non-interest income declined $743 million from a year-ago, driven by lower market sensitive and mortgage banking revenue, while non-interest income was down only $16 million from the first quarter. There are few business drivers, I want to highlight. Deposit service charges were down $37 million from the first quarter, reflecting a higher earnings credit rate for commercial customers and lower consumer and business checking service charges. Over the past few months, we've made a number of changes to help our customers avoid unexpected overdrafts including the introduction of a zero balance email alert that sent intraday when a customer’s available balance is zero or negative, which our online banking customers receive automatically. Card fees were a record $1 billion, up $74 million from the first quarter, reflecting a 7% increase in debit card transaction volume and the 12% increase in credit card purchase volume. Mortgage banking non-interest income declined $80 million from the first quarter, residential mortgage origination volume increased $12 billion or 27% from the first quarter on higher purchase volume, reflecting seasonality and a strong purchase market. However, originations were down 11% from a year-ago, reflecting lower refi volume. According to NBA data, the industry is projected to decline 15% for full-year 2017 from the slowdown in refinancing. Applications were up 41% from the first quarter and we ended the second quarter with a $34 billion unclosed pipeline. The production margin on residential held-for-sale mortgage originations was 124 basis points in the second quarter, down from 168 basis points in the first quarter. Approximately two-thirds of the decline was due to competitive pricing in both the retail and correspondent channels, while the rest of the decline was driven by a mix shift to a higher percentage of correspondent channel originations, which have a significantly lower margin than retail originations. 55% of our originations in the second quarter were correspondent, up from 50% in the first quarter and 44% a year-ago. While it's still very early in the quarter, we currently expect similar industry pricing and mix trends. Finally, our other income increased $249 million from the first quarter and included a $309 million gain on the sale of a Pick-a-Pay PCI loan portfolio. On Page 12, we provide details on trading related revenue and the impact to net interest income and non-interest income. Trading-related revenue was down $151 million or 15% from the first quarter. Trading-related net interest income increased $51 million. However, non-interest income declined $202 million from the first quarter on lower net gains from trading activities. $81 million of the decline was from lower deferred compensation plan investment results, which was largely offset in employee benefits expense. The decline also reflected lower market making trading results losses from RMBS and equity-related activity, which was offset in interest income and lower CVA and DVA. As shown on Page 13, expenses declined to $251 million from the first quarter, primarily driven by the seasonal decline in compensation related expense. As Tim mentioned earlier, while our efficiency ratio improved to 61.1% in the second quarter, it's still too high. We currently expect our efficiency ratio to improve in the second half of the year and expect our full-year efficiency ratio to be 60% to 61% in 2017. This estimate does not include any potential non-recurring expenses including reasonably possible, but not yet accrued litigation expenses. At Investor Day, we helped – to help analyze our expenses; we divided our non-interest expense line items into six main expense categories. We've used these same categories to describe the expense drivers on a linked-quarter and year-over-year basis starting on Page 15. The 2% decline in expenses from the first quarter was driven by $570 million decline in compensation and benefits expense from seasonally lower, personnel expenses and lower deferred comp expense. We also had $52 million reduction in infrastructure expense on lower equipment expense from typically high first quarter software licensing and maintenance costs. Partially offsetting these declines was $266 million of higher thirty-party services expense. This increase reflected higher spending primarily related to Technology, Consent Orders, Resolution, Recovery Planning and Legal Expenses. We currently expect these costs to remain at an elevated level in the third quarter before declining in the fourth quarter. We also had higher non-discretionary running the business expenses. This increase was primarily from $68 million of higher operating losses in the second quarter driven by higher litigation accruals. As we usually do, we will include in our 10-Q filing an update on the high-end of the range of reasonably possible – potential litigation losses in excess of our accrued liability for the quarter. But based on the information currently available, which may change between now and when we file the 10-Q, we expect the high end of the range to increase by approximately $1.3 billion due to a variety of matters, including our existing RMBS related regulatory investigations. On Page 16, we show the drivers of the year-over-year increases in expenses. Compensation and benefits expenses increased $339 million, driven by higher salaries from annual salary increases and a 1% increase in FTE. Thirty-party services expense also increased $339 million approximately $110 million of this increase was sales practice related. Non-discretionary running the business expense increased $185 million, which included $94 million donation to the Wells Fargo Foundation and $73 million amount of higher FDIC expense due to the special assessment implemented last July. Partially offsetting these increases were $152 million of lower revenue related expenses primarily from lower commissions and other incentives in Mortgage and Wholesale Banking. Discretionary running the business expense declined $60 million on lower travel and entertainment, postage, and advertising expense. We continue to make progress on efficiency initiatives that we expect will reduce expenses by approximately $2 billion annually by year-end 2018 with the full-year benefit starting in 2019. As we've previously mentioned these savings will be reinvested in the business, however, there are timing differences to consider. We've significantly increased our business investments in the last few years, and while we've made a lot of progress on the work that needs to be done on these initiatives. Most of the expenses savings are in the earlier stages are being realized. As we show on Page 17, the largest opportunity relates to centralization and optimization, we list the lot of great examples of the efforts we're making, which we expect will save $1.3 billion annually. Let me highlight just a few. Approximately 113,000 team members across the Company have been realigned over the past 18 months as part of our centralization and optimization initiative. Operating cost in human resources have already been reduced by 12% since the beginning of 2016 and we reduced the number of marketing agency vendors resulting in 12% reduction in quarterly agency fees from a year-ago also. On Slide 18, we highlight the other areas of the $2 billion expense initiative, through aggregating demand and staffing to create certain capabilities in-house we expect to save approximately $200 million related to third-party services expense. During the first six months of this year, we’ve closed 93 branches, including 54 in the second quarter and we're on track to close 200 branches this year. As we disclosed at Investor Day, we plan to close in additional 250 branches next year. As a reminder, there are minimal immediate savings recognized from branch closures due to the initial closing costs. So therefore most of the expense benefit from the 200 branches we close this year will not be realized until next year. We also expect to save approximately $150 million and infrastructure expense through continued site consolidation outside of our branch network and we're on track to reduce two million square feet this year. We expect to save another $200 million through other initiatives, including reduced to travel expenses. As we discussed at Investor Day, we expect an additional $2 billion in annual expenses saves by the end of 2019 these savings are projected to go to the bottom line. Turning to our Business segments starting on Page 19, Community Banking earned $3 billion in the second quarter, down 6% from a year-ago and down 1% from the first quarter. Our branch network is now below 6,000 for the first time since our merger with Wachovia at the end of 2008. As we discussed at Investor Day, we're making a shift in how we report activity to highlight metrics we believe best show how we're managing the business today and our most important to our long-term success. As we show on Slide 20, existing customers continue to actively use their accounts, branch and ATM interactions were up 3% from the first quarter, reflecting seasonality and we're down 3% from a year-ago. The decline from a year-ago was primarily driven by customers migrating to our digital channels with digital secure sessions up 5% from a year-ago. Our 27.9 million digital active customers are increasingly using our award winning online and mobile capabilities. For the first time in May, we had more mobile active customers than online active customers and we continue to invest in our mobile capabilities, including as Tim highlighted at the top, the ability to open accounts through mobile. Primary consumer checking customers increased from a year-ago, although the rate of growth has continued to slow active consumer general purpose credit card accounts were up 2% from both the first quarter from a year-ago. On Slide 21, we highlight balance and activity growth, which drives revenue. Average consumer and small business banking deposits grew by 5% from a year-ago. Debit card purchase volume increased 6% and the average consumer general purpose credit card balances increased 7% from a year-ago. Our team members continue to focus on what we know is most important providing outstanding customer service. This effort has resulted in the overall satisfaction with most recent visit and customer loyalty scores in June reaching their highest levels since August of 2016 and overall satisfaction scores were higher than a year-ago. The Community Banking team continues to work on making changes that will further improve the customer and team member experience. We're investing in training leaders throughout the country during coaching events that started last month. During the second quarter, we had our first payout under the new compensation plan for Community Banking team members with a 90% participation rate. More changes to the way we do business will be rolled out during the third quarter to further support our priorities through simplification, collaboration and innovation. Wholesale Banking earned $2.4 billion in the second quarter, up 15% from a year-ago and up 13% from the first quarter. These results included a tax benefit resulting from our agreement to sell Wells Fargo Insurance Services. It's also important to note that prior year results included the $290 million gain on the sale of our health benefit services business. Wealth and Investment Management earned a record $682 million in the second quarter, up 17% from a year-ago and up 9% from the first quarter. WIM had positive operating leverage on both year-over-year and linked-quarter basis, revenue increased 7% from a year-ago with a 21% increase in net interest income and a 2% growth in non-interest income. Average loans grew 7% and average deposits increased 3%. Deposit growth was impacted by seasonal tax related outflows, as well as brokerage clients moving more of their cash balances into other investments. We highlighted last quarter then in March; we had our first $1 billion month of closed referred investment assets from the partnership between Wealth and Investment Management and Community Banking since the sales practices settlement. Twice during the second quarter, we achieved $1 billion of monthly closed referred investment assets, a result of effective partnering between our bankers and financial advisors. WIM total client assets were a record $1.8 trillion, up 8% from a year-ago, driven by continued positive net flows and higher market valuations. Turning to Page 24, net charge-offs decreased $150 million from the first quarter with 27 basis points of annualized net charge-offs, which are at historically low levels. Commercial losses declined $68 million from the first quarter, driven by continued improvement in our oil and gas portfolio, where losses declined $81 million linked-quarter. Consumer losses declined $82 million with lower losses in auto, consumer real estate and other revolving credit and installment portfolios. Our consumer real estate portfolios both first and second lien mortgages were actually in a net recovery position in the second quarter, demonstrating the significant improvement in the residential real estate market and the quality of loans we put on our balance sheet. Non-performing assets continued to decline, down $827 million from the first quarter with improvements across all commercial portfolios and consumer real estate portfolios as well as lower foreclosed assets. We had a reserve release of $100 million, reflecting continued strong credit performance. Turning to Page 25, our estimated Common Equity Tier 1 ratio fully phased-in increased to 11.6% in the second quarter and we returned $3.4 billion to shareholders through common stock dividends and net share repurchases. Our net payout ratio was 63%. As Tim mentioned as part of our 2017 capital plan, we expect to return more capital to shareholders over the next four quarters, including up to $11.5 billion of gross common stock repurchases. Based on our updated TLAC estimate as of the end of the second quarter, we've exceeded our expected minimum requirement of 22% largely from lower RWAs and continued debt issuance. However, we continue to issue eligible TLAC to fund maturities, fund RWA growth and the expected migration of our CET1 level to our internal target level over time. In summary, our results in the second quarter, which included 1.21% return on assets and 11.95% return on equity and 14.26% return on tangible common equity demonstrated the benefit of our diversified business model which is generated, as I said earlier over $5 billion in quarterly earnings every quarter since the fourth quarter of 2012. We shared updates throughout the call today on progress we've made toward our goal of being the financial services leader in six areas; customer service and advice, team member engagement, innovation, risk management, corporate citizenship, and long-term shareholder value. I'm optimistic that the progress we are making will continue to drive our long-term success. And I think we will now take your questions.