John Shrewsberry
Analyst · Bernstein, please go ahead
Thanks Tim and good morning everyone. We earned $5.3 billion in the fourth quarter, the 17th consecutive quarter of generating earnings greater than $5 billion. Our consistent performance demonstrates the benefit of our diversified business model that has continued to perform well through the challenges we’ve faced in recent months. We had solid underlying performance in the quarter including a record level of loans and deposits and strong growth in net interest income. It's important to note that our results in the quarter included the loss of $592 million or $0.07 a share from the impact of net hedge ineffectiveness accounting. Slide 8 provides more details on our long-term debt hedging program. As we’ve previously discussed as part of our overall asset/liability management program, we typically swap our fixed rate long term debt to floating rate in order to balance our deposit oriented liability structure and better align with the interest rate sensitivity characteristics of our assets. We also issue non-U.S. dollar long term debt to diversify our funding sources and a portion of that debt is swapped to U.S. dollars. While we believe this hedging strategy is prudent from an asset/liability management perspective it’s generally not possible to achieve a perfect accounting hedge due to the differences in the required valuation measurement of the hedging instrument and the hedged item. As a result this can produce hedge ineffectiveness gains and losses from quarter-to-quarter as interest and exchange rates change. However, the hedge ineffectiveness recognized over the life of the hedging relationships is expected to be zero as long as the hedge accounting is maintained and the hedges are held to maturity. In 2016, we experienced significant quarterly volatility and hedge ineffectiveness due to key interest rate and foreign currency fluctuations, including a hedge ineffectiveness gain, net of related economic hedges of $379 million in the first quarter and a net loss of $592 million in the fourth quarter. However the 2016 full year net hedge ineffectiveness accounting impact on our results was a loss of only $15 million. FASB has issued an exposure draft on hedge accounting guidelines and new guidance is expected to be issued in 2017. If issued in its current form, the interest rate related ineffectiveness associated with our long term debt hedges would be significantly reduced. Turning to Page 9, let me highlight a few balance sheet trends. We had strong loan growth up $6.3 billion from third quarter on commercial loan growth. Consumer loans were reduced by the $3.8 billion deconsolidation of certain previously sold reverse mortgage loans following the sale of the related servicing in the fourth quarter. Investment securities increased $17.1 billion with $44 billion of purchases, predominantly agency MBS. The growth in this portfolio as well as a smaller balance sheet drove the $32.3 billion decline in short term investments and Fed funds sold. Deposit growth was also strong up $30.2 billion from third quarter with increases in commercial, consumer and small business banking balances and our short term borrowings declined $27.9 billion reflecting lower repurchase balances. Credit quality remains solid and we had a reserve release for the first time in 2016 which was $100 million in the fourth quarter. Turning to the income statement overview on Page 10, while revenue declined from the third quarter we had strong growth in net interest income up $450 million and our NIM increased 5 basis points. Non-interest income declined $1.2 billion driven by net hedging ineffectiveness, accounting losses, as well as lower trading and mortgage banking results which I will discuss later. Other sources of non-interest income were diversified and relatively stable. There are a lot of linked quarter changes and specific expense categories this quarter which I will highlight later in the call, but in total expenses were down $53 million from the third quarter. As shown on Page 11 loans increased $6.3 billion from third quarter with broad based growth across many of our commercial and consumer portfolios. Our auto portfolio was an exception as balances declined $587 million from third quarter. To respond to conditions in the competitive landscape and to maintain our risk tolerances we've tightened our underwriting standards. Auto originations in the fourth quarter were $6.4 billion down 21% from the third quarter and down 15% from a year ago. We currently expect balances in our auto portfolio to continue to decline in the near term. On Page 12 we show year-over-year loan growth. I'm not going to highlight each portfolio but our commercial growth was strong across many businesses and asset classes and the $3.8 billion deconsolidation of reverse mortgage loans reduced the growth rate of our 1-4 family first mortgage loan portfolio. As highlighted on Page 13, we had a record $1.3 trillion of average deposits in the fourth quarter, up $67.4 billion or 6% from a year ago with growth in both commercial and consumer deposits. Consumer and small business banking deposits increased 8% from a year ago. Our average deposit cost increased four basis points from a year ago driven by commercial deposit pricing. There was little to no market response to the rate hike in December 2015 and we currently believe that deposits betas from the rate hike in December 2016 will also be low, at least initially. Indications so far support this view, but we continue to monitor the market to ensure we remain competitive for our customers while maintaining our disciplined relationship based pricing strategy. Net interest income was up $450 million or 4% from the third quarter reflecting growth in loans and investment securities, higher interest incomes on trading assets and higher income from variable sources, including periodic dividends and fees. There was also a modest benefit from higher interest rates in the quarter. Net interest margin increased five basis points from the third quarter driven by growth in earning assets including deployment of cash into investments and the net benefit from higher interest rates. Income from variable sources benefited the NIM by approximately two basis points. Our growth in earning assets in the higher rate environment continue to benefit net interest income as we remain asset sensitive. However first quarter will reflect the impact from two fewer days and the typical linked quarter reduction in income from variable sources. Non-interest income declined $1.2 billion from the third quarter including the $592 million of net hedge ineffectiveness accounting losses as well as lower trading and mortgage banking fees. I've already explained the impact from net hedge ineffectiveness, so let me highlight the drivers of our mortgage banking and trading results. Mortgage banking results decreased $250 million from third quarter and included a $163 million decline in mortgage servicing income primarily due to higher unreimbursed servicing costs. These costs increased $109 million in the fourth quarter as a result of actions we took to work through an aged population of FHA foreclosed properties, where we’ve had challenges in repairing and conveying them back to HUD. As a result we increased our estimated cost to resolve these properties in the fourth quarter, however we expect these actions will reduce unreimbursed servicing costs significantly in 2017. Residential mortgage origination volume was $72 billion, up $25 billion or 53% from a year ago and up $2 billion from the third quarter. Applications were down 25% from the third quarter and we ended the fourth quarter with a $30 billion unclosed pipeline similar to our pipeline a year ago. Our production margin on residential held-for-sale mortgage originations was 168 basis points in the fourth quarter, down 13 basis points from the third quarter primarily due to a higher mix of correspondent originations in the fourth quarter. We currently expect origination volume in the first quarter to be roughly in line with the volume we had in the first quarter of 2016 but down from fourth quarter due to seasonality in the purchases market and lower refi volume driven by higher interest rates. On Page 16 we provide some details on trading related revenue and the impact in net interest income and non-interest income. Total trading related revenue was down $378 million from the third quarter, trading related net interest income was up a $146 million in the fourth quarter reflecting higher average trading asset balances as well as $98 million from periodic dividends and carry income on certain hedged trading positions in our equity and RMBS books. The corresponding decline in the value of these hedges was reflected as a loss in net trading activity, so they’re revenue neutral. Net trading activities declined due to a $223 million decrease in secondary trading, reflecting lower client volumes compared with the strong third quarter as well as seasonality, fewer trading days in the fourth quarter and lower client demand as clients adapted to the rising rate environment. While our client focused business model typically underperforms the market in periods of high volatility, we believe we successfully managed through the post-election market volatility in the fourth quarter. A $106 million of the decline in net trading activities was from deferred compensation trading results which was largely offset in employee benefits expense. Finally, there was a $61 million decline from a change in credit valuation adjustments in the fourth quarter due to market driven changes in credit spreads and higher swap rates. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2015 total trading related revenue was down $27 million. On Page 17 we highlight the five quarter trend across major fee categories, compared with a year ago many of our fee businesses grew including deposit accounts, brokerage, investment banking, card and mortgage originations. This page illustrates that while many businesses had above average results in the fourth quarter, total non-interest income reflected below average mortgage servicing income and lower market sensitive revenue which was down $526 million from a year ago. As shown on Page 18 expenses declined $53 million from the third quarter, but our efficiency ratio increased to 61.2% primarily driven by the impact of net hedge ineffectiveness losses on our revenue. Our efficiency ratio for the full year was 59.3%. We expect our efficiency ratio to remain at an elevated level. While total expenses were relatively flat from the third quarter there were some meaningful changes in some specific expense items in the fourth quarter. Personal expenses were down a $195 million from the third quarter primarily due to lower revenue related incentive compensation, lower deferred compensation expense and one fewer payroll day. As a reminder we will have seasonally higher personal expenses in the first quarter reflecting incentive compensation and employee benefits expense. We have typically higher outside professional services, equipment and advertising expenses in the fourth quarter, and combined these categories increased $394 million from the third quarter. This increase was also driven by higher project spending and legal expense. Operating losses declined $334 million from third quarter on lower litigation accruals. And all other expenses declined $116 million from third quarter which included a $107 million donation to the Wells Fargo foundation. As we highlight on Page 19, we remain focused on expense management and efficiency. We’ve been working on a number of initiatives that we expect will reduce expenses by approximately $2 billion annually by year-end 2018 with the full year benefits starting in 2019. This is not a new focus, we’re just providing you with more detail in our initiative this quarter to reduce expenses. We’ve summarized these opportunities into three categories and included the stage of completion on the right of this page. The largest opportunity relates to centralization and optimization. We’ve started to make changes in how we’re organized to reduce complexity and redundancy by continuing to realign staff areas including marketing, finance and technology. These changes should not only reduce cost, but should also enable us to more seamlessly serve customers and team members. We remain focused on reducing discretionary spending in areas like facilities, non-customer related travel and third party spending. And as we’ve discussed in the past, we’re also focused on selective divestitures of non-core sub-scale businesses which includes the sale of our crop insurance and health benefit services businesses last year. We also formed the payments, virtual solutions and innovation group which will accelerate our focus on delivering the next generation of payments capabilities, advancing digital and online offerings and investing in new customer experiences and products. While these efforts should have a meaningful impact to certain expense categories, there will not be a bottom line impact as these savings will be reinvested in the business. Our expense focus enables us to operate more efficiently, generate meaningful expense savings and continue to invest to drive future growth, all while continuing to have a strong efficiency ratio. Let me take some time to discuss our branch strategy in more detail, it’s along with each and every business within the company as part of our focus on discretionary spending. We continuously evaluate our branch network and while our physical distribution strategy is driven by customer behavior. While branches continue to be a critical component in serving our customers’ needs, our investment in digital capabilities has enabled us to seamlessly serve our customers across channels providing them with more choice and convenience in how they bank with us. And as a result, more transactions are occurring outside the branch. Our strategy is also influenced by geographical differences in our individual markets, economic trends and competitor actions to close or open branches. Once external trends indicate that there is an opportunity for branch closures, we focused on the customer impact. Additionally, we evaluate the CRA impact and the branch profitability and other key criteria to maximize expense savings and minimize revenue loss. Based on observed trends in customer behavior, we began to accelerate branch closures in 2016 and closed 84 branches mostly in the second half of the year. We expect the pace of branch closures to increase to 200 branches in 2017 and we expect closures at that level or slightly higher in 2018. There also continues to be opportunities for de novos in some attractive markets. Many of the closures this year will be in closed proximity to another branch and therefore we don’t expect a significant revenue or team member impact. The full year expense benefit usually occurs one to two years after the branch is closed. We will be providing more details on our branch distribution strategy at our May Investor Day. Turning to our business segments starting on Page 21, community banking earned $2.7 billion in the fourth quarter down 14% from a year ago and down 15% from third quarter. The declines were primarily due to net hedge ineffectiveness losses and lower mortgage banking results. We’ve already discussed many of the business trends within community banking, so I won't go into any more details here. Wholesale banking earned $2.2 billion in the fourth quarter, up 4% from a year ago and up 7% from the third quarter. Revenue was $7.2 billion, up 9% from a year ago driven by 16% growth in net interest income. Balance sheet growth was strong with both deposits and loans at record levels. Loan growth was broad based with average loans up $44.5 billion or 11% from a year ago, the ninth consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year loan growth. And we have completed the final phase of the GE Capital's portfolio acquisitions in October. Wealth and investment management earned $653 million in the fourth quarter, up 10% from a year ago and down 4% from the third quarter which was a record quarter. Fourth quarter results reflected strong balance sheet growth with net interest income up 14% from a year ago. Average deposits were up 10% and average loans increased 11% from a year ago, the 14th consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year loan growth. WIM total client assets reached a record high in the fourth quarter of $1.7 trillion, up 7% from a year ago driven by higher market valuations and continued positive net flows. Turning to Page 24, net charge-offs increased $100 million from the third quarter with 37 basis points of annualized net charge-offs. Commercial losses were up $36 million driven by $32 million in lower recoveries. Consumer loses increased $64 million driven by higher losses in credit card, auto and other revolving credit and installment loans due to seasonality, higher severity in auto losses and a movement toward more normalized losses in unsecured lending. Residential real estate portfolios continue to improve with net charge-offs down $28 million or 41% from the third quarter. Our first mortgage loan portfolio had net recoveries in the fourth quarter and we had only 38 basis points of loss in our Junior lien portfolio. Non-performing assets continued to decline down $644 million from the third quarter with improvements across our consumer and commercial portfolios and lower foreclosed assets. We had a reserve released of $100 million reflecting continued improvement in our residential real estate portfolio and stabilization in our oil and gas portfolio performance. Slide 25 provides details on our oil and gas portfolio. Outstanding continued to decline down 8% from the third quarter and down 15% from a year ago. We had $177 million of net charge-offs in the fourth quarter with all losses from the E&P and services sectors. Given the current environment we continue to believe that losses peaked in the second quarter of 2016. Non-accrual loans were $2.4 billion, down $84 million from the third quarter and criticized loans declined $776 million or 11%. Turning to Page 26, our estimated common equity Tier 1 ratio fully phased-in was stable at 10.7%, well above our internal target of 10% which includes the regulatory minimum and buffers and our internal buffer. We repurchased 24.9 million common shares in the fourth quarter and entered into a $750 million forward repurchase transaction which settled this week for 14.7 million shares. We returned $3 billion to shareholders in the fourth quarter through common stock dividends and net share repurchases. The final TLAC accrual was issued in December and becomes effective on January 1, 2019. We estimate that as of December 31, 2016 we will need to increase our portfolio of qualifying TLAC by approximately $18 billion in order to be compliant. This shortfall is lower than our previous estimates which were based on the proposed rule due primarily to the grandfathering of existing debt governed under foreign law in the final rule. It also was impacted by lower RWA levels at year end. However the removal of the phase-in period in the final rule will result in a modest acceleration of our issuance plan. We issued a total of $32 billion of qualifying TLAC in 2016 and we currently expect issuance in 2017 will be at a similar level to fund both maturities and our targeted build of qualifying debt. In summary our results in the fourth quarter demonstrated solid underlying performance as we continued to meet our customers' financial needs. We had record levels of loans, deposits and client assets. Our credit quality, liquidity and capital all remained strong. We once again earned more than $5 billion in the quarter demonstrating the benefit of our diversified business model which continued to perform well during a period where we faced unique challenges. It's been only four months since we signed the sales practices consent orders but we've already made progress in restoring customers and team members trust and we remain committed to being transparent with investors while there is still more work to do we're confident that we will build a better Wells Fargo that will continue to meet our customers' financial needs. Benefit the communities we serve and provide opportunities for our team members and investors. And we can now take your questions.