John Shrewsberry
Analyst · Jefferies
Thanks, John and good morning everyone. My comments will follow the presentation included in the quarterly supplement starting on Page 2. John and I will then answer your questions. We had another quarter of solid results. We have now generated quarterly earnings of more than $5 billion for 14 consecutive quarters, one of only two companies in the country to do so, demonstrating the strength of our diversified business model and our consistent risk discipline. While earnings declined from a year ago, our results in the first quarter last year included a discrete tax benefit of $359 million or $0.07 per share and a $100 million dollar reserve release. Our results this quarter included a number of noteworthy items. Our revenue benefited from the previously announced sale of our crop insurance business resulting in a $381 million gain recorded in all other non-interest income. All other income also included $379 million of hedge ineffectiveness primarily on our own long-term debt hedges reflecting the impact of lower rates and foreign exchange rate fluctuations during the quarter. We would expect the hedge ineffectiveness to be neutral to our results over the life of the hedge relationship but the impact in every quarter will vary. We had a $124 million of other-than-temporary-impairment, OTTI, in our debt and equity securities related to oil and gas in the first quarter. The deterioration in the oil and gas portfolio drove the $200 million credit reserve build in the quarter also. I will get into more detail on oil and gas later in the call. Expenses included $752 million of seasonally higher employee benefit expenses from higher payroll taxes and 401(k) matching as well as annual equity awards to retirement-eligible team members. Our first quarter results also included the GE Capital acquisitions we completed during the quarter. On Page 4, we show the strong year-over-year growth John highlighted, including increases in revenue, pretax pre-provision profit, loans and deposits. Turning to Page 5. Let me highlight a few balance sheet trends. Investment securities declined $12.7 billion from fourth quarter as we paused most of our purchase activity due to the volatility in the bond market. We had $5 billion of gross purchases during the first quarter compared with last year's average of $26 billion per quarter. Long-term debt increased $28.4 billion with $23.8 billion of issuances, including $11 billion raised in advance of closing the GE Capital acquisitions. We also assumed $3.6 billion of debt from previous GE Capital securitizations. Short-term investments and Fed funds sold increased $30.4 billion reflecting growth in deposits, long term debt and our disciplined approach in managing liquidity and investment securities during the quarter. Turning to the income statement overview on Page 6. Revenue increased $609 million from the fourth quarter with growth in both net interest and non-interest income. I will highlight the drivers of this growth throughout the call. As shown on Page 7, we had continued strong loan growth in the first quarter, up 10% from a year ago and 3% from the fourth quarter. Commercial loans grew $31.6 billion from the fourth quarter, including $24.9 billion from the GE Capital acquisitions and broad-based organic growth. Consumer loans declined $923 million from the fourth quarter as growth in first mortgage loans, auto and securities-based lending and student lending was more than offset by reductions in junior lien mortgage and seasonal declines in credit card. Our total average loan yield increased 8 basis points from the fourth quarter, reflecting the GE Capital acquisitions as well as the benefit of floating rate loan repricing. We added a total of $30.8 billion of loans and leases from the GE capital acquisitions. The benefit of our strong balance sheet and industry expertise enabled us to add these high quality businesses, including talented new team members and valuable customer relationships. This is our largest acquisition since 2008. The integration is on track and we continue to expect it will be modestly accretive in 2016. We completed the GE Railcar Services acquisition on January 1, which included $918 million of loans and interest earning leases and $3.2 billion of operating leases reported in other assets. Most of the revenue from this business is reflected in non-interest income as lease income. On March 1, we acquired the North American-based portion of GE Capital C&I loans and leases which included $24 billion of loans and interest earning leases and $2.7 billion of operating leases. The remaining $2 billion of assets is expected to close in the second half of the year. The loans and leases we acquired were marked to fair value under the purchase method of accounting so that there was no associated allowance added as a result of these transactions. Slide 9 highlights our broad-based loan growth. C&I loans were up $50.5 billion or 19% from a year ago driven by the GE Capital acquisitions and broad-based organic growth. Core one-to-four family first mortgage loans grew $17.3 billion or 8% from a year ago and reflected continued growth in high quality non-conforming mortgage loans. Commercial real estate loans grew $15.8 billion or 12% from a year ago, benefiting from the second quarter GE Capital acquisition and organic growth. Auto loans were up $4.3 billion or 8% from last year. We've consistently grown this portfolio in the upper single digits over the past year, reflecting the strong auto market while we have remained disciplined in our approach to credit and pricing. Credit card balances were up $3.1 billion or 10% from a year ago, reflecting new accounts and increases in active accounts. Other revolving credit and installment loans were up $2.7 billion or 8% from a year ago with growth in securities based lending, personal lines and loans and student loans. As highlighted on Page 10, we had $1.2 trillion of average deposits in the first quarter, up $44.6 billion or 4% from a year ago. Our average deposit cost was 10 basis points, up 1 basis point from a year ago and up 2 basis points from the fourth quarter. The slight increase in deposit cost reflected an increase in deposit pricing for some wholesale banking customers. We continue to believe that deposit betas will be lower during this rate cycle than they have been in past periods of rising rates, especially if the outlook for future rate increases remains uncertain. Page 11 highlights our revenue diversification. Our revenue continued to be relatively balanced between net interest and non-interest income. We grew net interest income $79 million from the fourth quarter, reflecting growth in earning assets, including the partial quarter impact from the assets acquired from GE Capital, the benefit from higher short-term rates and disciplined deposit pricing. These increases were partially offset by reduced income from variable sources, including periodic dividends and loan fees and one less day in the quarter. The net interest margin declined 2 basis points from the fourth quarter with lower variable income. All other growth and repricing were essentially neutral to the NIM. We grew net interest income in the first quarter by 6% from a year ago and continue to believe that we can grow net interest income on a full-year basis in 2016 compared with 2015 even if there are no additional rate increases. Total non-interest income increased $530 million from fourth quarter driven by the increase in all other non-interest income that I highlighted at the start of the call. The non-interest income also benefited from the increase in lease income related to the GE Capital acquisitions we completed in the quarter, which also included related lease depreciation expense. The linked quarter increase in trading gains was due to higher customer accommodation trading results across our markets businesses. The volatile markets we experienced in the first quarter impacted our trust and investment fees which declined $126 million from the fourth quarter. We also had lower debt and equity investment gains down $281 million from the fourth quarter. While linked-quarter trends in deposit service charges and card fees were negatively impacted by seasonality, both of these fees grew 8% from a year ago driven by account growth. Mortgage banking revenue declined $62 million from the fourth quarter. Origination volume was $44 billion, down 6% from the fourth quarter due to seasonality but purchase originations were up 13% from a year ago, reflecting a stronger housing market. Applications were up 20% from the fourth quarter and we ended the quarter with a $39 billion application pipeline, up 34% from the fourth quarter. We expect origination volume to increase in the second quarter reflecting normal seasonality and strength in the housing market. Our production margin on residential held-for-sale mortgage originations was 168 basis points in the first quarter, down 15 basis points from the fourth quarter due to a higher mix of correspondent originations in the first quarter. Releases of our mortgage loan repurchase liability declined $107 million from fourth quarter, which also contributed to lower production revenue. Servicing income increased $120 million from fourth quarter, from higher net MSR servicing hedge results and lower unreimbursed servicing costs. As shown on Page 14, expenses increased $429 million from fourth quarter. As I highlighted at the start of the call, the increase was primarily driven by $752 million of seasonally higher personnel expenses in the first quarter. While we will not have the seasonally higher personnel expenses in the second quarter, there are certain expenses that will increase, including salary expense reflecting annual merit increases which became effective late in the first quarter, and certain expenses that are typically lower in the first quarter, such as outside professional services and advertising costs which are also expected to increase. We had $454 million of operating losses primarily driven by litigation expense in the first quarter. Now that the FDIC has issued their final rule, I want to update you on the expected impact of the FDIC surcharge that I mentioned on our call last quarter, which is lower than we previously expected. We currently estimate that the surcharge along with a previously approved base rate reduction will increase our total FDIC assessment by approximately $100 million per quarter starting in the third quarter of 2016. Our efficiency ratio was 58.7% in the first quarter and we currently expect to operate at the higher end of our efficiency ratio range of 55% to 59% for the full year 2016. Turning to our business segments, starting on Page 15. Community banking earned $3.3 billion in the first quarter, down 7% from a year ago due to the discrete tax benefit we had in the first quarter of 2015 and up 4% from the fourth quarter. We continued to successfully grow retail bank households and increased our primary consumer checking customers which were up 5% from a year ago. This growth along with increased usage and new product offerings benefited our debit and credit card businesses. Debit card purchase volume was $72.4 billion in the first quarter, up 9% from a year ago, and credit card purchase volume was $17.5 billion, up 13% from a year ago. Customers are increasingly using our award winning digital offerings with digital active customers up 6% from a year ago, including 17.7 million mobile active users with continued double-digit growth in mobile adoption. Wholesale banking earned $1.9 billion in the first quarter, down 3% from a year ago and down 9% from the fourth quarter. The decline was driven by the higher provision expense in our oil and gas portfolio. Revenue grew 6% from the fourth quarter with growth in both net interest and non-interest income. This growth was driven by the gain on the sale of our crop insurance business and the benefit of the GE Capital acquisitions. Investment banking declined on overall market weakness and some of our commercial real estate related businesses had weaker results coming off a very strong fourth quarter performance. Loan growth remained strong driven by acquisitions and broad-based organic growth with average loans up $49.8 billion or 13% from a year ago, the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year growth. Average deposit balances declined $3.7 billion from a year ago, reflecting lower international deposits from market volatility and the competitive rate environment. Wealth and investment management earned $512 million in the first quarter, down 3% from a year ago, down 14% from the fourth quarter. The year-over-year results reflect a strong balance sheet growth with net interest income up 14% offset by the impact of weak equity market conditions on fee income. The decline in linked quarter results was primarily driven by seasonally higher personnel costs. Balance sheet growth remained strong with average deposits up 8% from a year ago and loans up 13%, the 11th consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year loan growth with continued growth in non-conforming mortgage loans and securities based lending. We successfully completed our recruiting of financial advisors pursuant to our agreement with Credit Suisse. We were able to recruit substantially all of the advisors that we targeted. We are pleased with the success we've had recruiting these financial advisors and look forward to their contributions to our continued growth in wealth management. Turning to Page 18. Credit results continued to benefit from our diversified portfolio with only 38 basis points of annualized net charge-offs. Net charge-offs increased $55 million from the fourth quarter, including an increase of $87 million from our oil and gas portfolio. While our oil and gas portfolio remains under stress due to low prices and excess leverage in the industry, the rest of our loan portfolios have performed well. Non-performing assets increased $706 million from the fourth quarter, we had $1.1 billion in higher oil and gas non-accruals and $343 million in nonaccrual loan from the GE Capital acquisitions which was within our acquisition underwriting assumptions. These increases were partially offset by lower residential and commercial real estate non-accruals and lower foreclosed assets. As I mentioned earlier, we had a $200 million reserve build during the quarter as continued improvements in our residential real estate portfolio were more than offset by higher oil and gas reserves. Since first quarter 2015 we have released $1.8 billion of allowance that was allocated to our residential real estate portfolios while providing $1.4 billion of additional allowance allocated to our oil and gas portfolio, demonstrating the advantage of our diversified loan portfolio. The total allowance now stands at $12.7 billion. Slide 19 highlights the characteristics of our oil and gas portfolio, which is less than 2% of total loans outstanding. We had $17.8 billion of oil and gas loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter, up $474 million from the fourth quarter, including $236 million in loans acquired from GE Capital. The remaining increase was driven by utilization of existing lines primarily in the E&P sector. The composition of our portfolio has remained relatively stable with 55% of our outstandings to the E&P sector, 21% to midstream and 24% to service companies. Approximately 7% or $1.2 billion of our outstandings to investment grade companies based on public ratings. However there are other factors that are important to consider when assessing the quality of these loans. Our loans are primarily to middle market companies that we know well and have worked closely with across cycles. Of the approximately 100 bankruptcies that have occurred in the industry since the start of 2015, only eleven of our borrowers have filed during that time. Our outstandings also included $819 million of second lien and $374 million of mezzanine loans. Our total oil and gas loan exposure which includes unfunded commitments and loans outstanding was down $1.3 billion or 3% from the fourth quarter with declines across all three sectors. This decline reflected reductions to existing credit facilities in part from spring redeterminations and net charge-offs. Approximately 34% of our unfunded commitments were to investment grade companies as their line utilization is generally lower. In addition to our exposure to oil and gas in our loan portfolio, we also had a total of $2.4 billion in our securities portfolio. Slide 20 highlights the credit performance of our oil and gas portfolio as we work through this cycle. The sector's performance has been driven by a number of factors that cumulatively have impacted loan quality. In addition to low oil and gas prices, cash flows and collateral values have been impacted by reduced production, run-off of hedges and limited additional cost levers. Reduced access to capital markets has also impacted borrowers’ financial condition. As a result of these factors we had $204 million of net charge-offs in the first quarter. There were no losses from the midstream sector during the quarter. Non-accrual loans were $1.9 billion. We reviewed our loan portfolio on a loan-by-loan basis and placed loans on non-accrual status when the full and timely collection of contractual interest or principal becomes uncertain, and loans are written down to net realizable value when appropriate. Approximately 90% of the non-accrual is recurrent on interest and principal. Payments received on these loans are applied to reducing principal which decreases future losses. Substantially all of our non-accrual loans are senior secured. Given the conditions in the industry, criticized loans which include non-accrual loans increased 57% of the portfolio reflecting continued downward credit migration. This migration reflects changes in the borrower's financial condition. Reflecting the downward credit migration, our allocated allowance for the oil and gas portfolio increased $504 million to $1.7 billion. This portion of the allowance was 9.3% of total oil and gas loans outstanding. But as I've noted before, the entire $12.7 billion allowance is available to absorb credit losses inherent in the total loan portfolio. Turning to Slide 21. In addition to building allowance for our oil and gas portfolio, we continue to focus on other areas where the trends in the oil and gas industry may impact performance as we manage through the cycle. For example, we have assessed regions of the country and have been monitoring 15 regions in eight states where greater than 3% of employment is directly tied to oil production and are also monitoring performance in Houston and Alaska, neither of which have 3% of employment directly tied to oil production. We're tracking changes in outstandings, utilization, delinquency rates, FICO scores and LTV migration across our consumer portfolios in these regions and having outperformed the rest of our portfolio for the past several years consumer delinquencies in oil dependent regions have increased and are roughly in line with the performance in non oil concentrated communities. We currently anticipate further deterioration and while we remain committed to serving our customers, we’ve tightened our underwriting standards across our consumer portfolios in oil dependent regions. We're also actively monitoring commercial real estate exposure on a loan-by-loan basis in geographies highly correlated to the oil and gas industry. Our CRE and energy management teams are working closely together and coordinating monitoring activities. Our total exposure is manageable and these loans are generally structured with significant cash equity and various other credit enhancements. In summary, we are actively monitoring the impact from the disruption in the oil and gas industry in all areas of our business and we're working closely with all impacted customers. We've increased the size of our workout team and the senior members of our credit team are devoting significant time to monitoring our exposures. We've started the spring redeterminations and are decreasing borrowing bases. We’re proactively reviewing credit agreements and modifying credit terms and commitment amounts accordingly. While the level of losses we have in our oil and gas portfolio will continue to be impacted by the volatility and stress in the industry and it will take time to move through this part of the cycle, the experience of managing through many cycles will continue to be beneficial to our overall performance. Turning to Page 22. Our capital levels remained strong with our estimated common equity tier one ratio fully phased in at 10.6% in the first quarter, well above the regulatory minimum buffers and our internal buffer. Our strong capital generation positioned us to deploy capital for the assets acquired from GE while continuing to return capital to our shareholders. We issued 35.5 million common shares in the first quarter reflecting seasonally higher employee benefit plan activity. But we still reduced our common shares outstanding by 16.2 million shares through share repurchases of 51.7 million. Our net payout ratio was 60% in the first quarter. In summary, our first quarter results demonstrated the benefit of our diversified business model as we continued to produce strong financial results in an environment that included some near-term headwinds. Our consistent focus on executing on our vision continued to benefit our fundamental drivers of long term growth, including adding customers, loans and deposits while maintaining our strong capital position. We look forward to providing you more details on the strength of our business model while highlighting the quality of our team at our investor day on May 24. John and I will now answer your questions.