Earnings Labs

WEX Inc. (WEX)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 29, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the WEX Third Quarter Financial Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference call over to Mr. Micky Thomas. Please go ahead, sir.

Michael Thomas

Analyst

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everybody. With me today is Melissa Smith, our President and CEO; and our CFO, Steve Elder. The press release we issued earlier this morning is posted in the Investor Relations section of our website at wexinc.com. A copy of the release has also been included in an 8-K we submitted to the SEC. As a reminder, we will be discussing non-GAAP metrics, specifically adjusted net income, during our call. Adjusted net income for this year's third quarter excludes an unrealized gain on fuel price derivatives, amortization of acquired intangible assets, expense of stock-based compensation, certain acquisition-related expenses, noncash adjustments related to our tax receivable agreement, gain on divestiture of Pacific Pride, adjustments attributed to noncontrolling interest and the tax impact of these items. Please see Exhibit 1 included in the press release for an explanation and reconciliation of adjusted net income to GAAP net income. I would also like to remind you that we will discuss forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those forward-looking statements as a result of various factors, including those discussed in our press release and the risk factors identified in our annual report on Form 10-K, filed with the SEC on February 27, 2014. While we may update forward-looking statements in the future, we disclaim any obligations to do so. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, all of which speak only as of today. With that, I'll turn the call over to Melissa Smith.

Melissa D. Smith

Analyst

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Today, WEX reported solid results for the third quarter of 2014, driven by strength across the business. During the quarter, revenue increased 16% over the prior year to $222.1 million and adjusted net income per share increased 17% to $1.56 per diluted share. Our earnings benefited from positive results of one of our scale initiatives related to tax savings along with stronger-than-expected performance in the travel and health care industries included in our other payment segment. These benefits were partially offset by FX losses. The underlying operational results were strong and ahead of our expectations for the quarter. These results leave us confident in the strategies we have in place to continue to drive meaningful growth as we close the year and move into 2015. I'm excited to update you on the progress against our strategic milestones. Throughout the year, I've talked about 3 objectives: position the company to accelerate growth organically and through M&A; further globalize our business through targeted investments; and drive scale across the organization. We continue to make significant progress on all fronts. We're seeing growth across the fleet business, both domestically and abroad. Domestically, we're continuing to win portfolios, working with a number of different brands across the United States. We're enhancing our on-the-ground presence, while improving our competitive positioning in Europe and Asia through the ExxonMobil transaction and our relationship with Shell. We've increased WEX's addressable market in the complex health care payment space through the acquisition of Evolution1. Year-to-date, we have grown revenue 13% and adjusted net income 17% while making a significant investment in our European expansion. We anticipate that our focus on these areas will continue to bear fruit as we leverage our strengths in the diverse set of payment solutions. Let…

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst

Thank you, Melissa. For the third quarter of 2014, we reported total revenue of $222.1 million, an increase of 16% or $30.6 million from the prior year period and towards the high end of our guidance. This performance versus the prior year was driven primarily by the acquisition of Evolution1 in mid-July, solid growth in fleet volumes, higher fee revenue and another very strong quarter of growth for our virtual card spend. Net income attributed to common shareholders on a GAAP basis for the third quarter was $74.4 million or $1.91 per diluted share. Our non-GAAP adjusted net income increased to $60.7 million or $1.56 per diluted share. This compares to $52 million and $1.33 per diluted share in Q3 last year. Our adjusted net income was favorably impacted by a tax benefit of $11.3 million relating to prior years, which was partially offset by a foreign exchange loss of $7.6 million. If we were to remove these items, adjusted EPS would have been $1.39 per share. As a reminder, stock-based compensation expense was excluded from both the current and prior period and, therefore, adjusted net income for Q3 2013 is different from what was reported last year. We have also excluded certain acquisition-related expenses directly related to the closing of the Evolution1 deal and the gain from the divestiture of Pacific Pride. There were no comparable expenses in last year's quarter, so this did not result in any additional change to the adjusted net income reported last year. Taking a look at some key performance metrics for the quarter. Consolidated payment processing transactions increased 5% year-over-year, which was in line with our expectations. The consolidated net payment processing rate for Q3 2014 was 1.37%, which was a decrease of 3 basis points compared to Q3 2013 and was up…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW. Sanjay Sakhrani - Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division: [indiscernible] quarter. I guess, when we think about the tax benefit this quarter and looking ahead, should we include that in our run rate as far as how you're thinking about growth next year? I understand you guys talk about guidance next quarter, but just in thinking about that tax benefit, how should we contemplate it in terms of a normal run rate number for this year?

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst

I'd say, Sanjay, from -- the project that we -- and what we recognized in the income statement this quarter was about $11.3 million that related to prior years' returns, so 2010 through 2013. We guided specifically for the fourth quarter to be 35% to 36%, which is basically the same guidance that we've been using all year long aside from this tax project. We had anticipated, actually, at the beginning of the year doing this project and getting some benefit, and we had included that in our guidance right from the beginning of the year. So when we finalized the project, it came in pretty much where we expected for the year. So we're not really seeing any changes to our full year number for our guidance for the tax rate. So I'd say, going into next year, I think the rate we've got is a pretty good rate. Obviously, it'll change with the mix of earnings between geographies. So there could be some movement, but overall, I'd say the rate we gave for the fourth quarter is probably a pretty good one to use next year. Sanjay Sakhrani - Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division: And when you say rate movement, your -- I mean, clearly, in Europe, the tax rates are lower...

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst

Exactly. So that we... Sanjay Sakhrani - Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division: And that would probably factor in more next year?

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst

Exactly. So I'm just saying, if the mix of earnings changes to the -- more profits coming from Europe as opposed to the U.S., then the rate will go down. Sanjay Sakhrani - Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division: Right, right. And then I guess, you guys talked about the ramp in investments related to Esso, and I just wanted to drill down on those a little bit more as we think -- as we look towards next year. I mean, when we think about the investments you've made and the costs that you've incurred this year, directionally, are they indicative of what you guys expect to incur next year? Or could it be higher?

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst

I'd say, we haven't completed our planning process yet for next year, and there's still a lot of information that we're getting from Esso, even very recently, in the last week or 2. So the other big factor is we don't know when the conversion is actually going to happen, whether it will be towards the end of this year or early next year. And so those -- all those things are factoring into what's going to impact next year. So what I can say is that we still believe we have a significant amount of work to do to complete the platform development, convert onto our platforms, and we believe we also have a lot of work to do to optimize the portfolio once we have it. But I don't think we're ready or in a position right now to give you a range for next year's dilution.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ashish Sabadra with Deutsche Bank.

Ashish Sabadra - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

On the payment processing transactions, those slowed down a bit. They were about 6% in first half, came in at 5% in the third quarter. I'm just wondering if you could provide some more color on that trend? And then, as you look forward with all the events that you talked about, both domestic as well as growth internationally, how should we think about the payment processing transaction going forward?

Melissa D. Smith

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Sure. So if you look at the growth in payment processing transactions this quarter, it gets impacted by a couple of things. It gets impacted by the number of businesses that occur on a year-over-year basis, which had a little bit of an impact compared to last year, which is why you might see -- be off 1% in a particular quarter. The other thing that will also have a translation is the timing of when we do portfolio conversions. So we had some of those portfolio conversions earlier in the year. We've just talked about a few that we're implementing now. And so that will also have an impact on the overall year-over-year growth rates. And in terms of looking at this on a go-forward basis, we've clearly had the bulk of the business now in the United States. That's changing as we pick up the ExxonMobil portfolio. And so what we're doing in Europe is going to be significantly different next year compared to what, obviously, we've got for trends this year. So I would think of the underlying business as being relatively similar. Here in the U.S., we're seeing a little bit of acceleration in growth. Also, in our Australian business, they've had actually pretty good success in picking up new relationships there. And then that will be compounded by this portfolio conversion that's going to be coming on from ExxonMobil in Europe.

Ashish Sabadra - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

That's great. That's great. My second question was going to be around the WEX Travel business. If you could just talk about the competitive environment there. Have you seen any shift in the competitive environment from any niche players? And also, you've been -- you've highlighted several new wins in this year. So I was also wondering if you could talk about the pipeline going forward, how your discussions are progressing with other travel agencies and other players in the T&E market.

Melissa D. Smith

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Yes. So our travel products, I would say, it is a highly competitive market that we're in regardless of which country we're doing business in. And that's because we're typically competing against local niche players and some of the larger banks. We continue to be very successful in that competitive marketplace. And we believe that, that's a combination of the product offering that we have in the marketplace wrapped around with it -- with a very strong service offering. So if you look at the pipeline, it continues to be strong. We're seeing growth here in the United States. We talked about 21% growth here in U.S., and that's just been compounded by the growth that we've seen in some of our other offices. And as we continue to move to having more currencies, as we were -- and we then continue to expand the number of currencies that we're settling and issuing in, that will also enable our ability to actually sell into some new markets.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Willi with Wells Fargo.

Timothy W. Willi - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

I have some questions about Evolution1. The first, I just want to clarify, you said that of the growth in payment volumes in other, 10% of the 39 percentage points was from Evolution1, correct?

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

That's correct, Tim.

Timothy W. Willi - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Okay. And is there anything around the -- maybe you mentioned it earlier, I apologize if I didn't catch it. Is there anything around seasonal volumes? Do you see anything -- even though HSAs roll over -- is there anything where towards the end of year, for whatever reason, people feel compelled to maybe utilize them as they meet deductibles and try to get in and do stuff where they don't have as high of an out-of-pocket? Or anything like that we should think about around the quarterly flows of volumes in HSA?

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Yes. There is some seasonality in the business, and it's actually more -- you see more volume in the first half of the year. So every calendar year, everybody's high deductible insurance plan resets, and so the first dollars that are coming out of pocket are coming in the first part of the year. And so you see a lot more activity on the draws from their -- from the accounts earlier in the year. And then as people meet their deductibles, that's when the insurance starts paying a portion of it. So the seasonality is actually skewed towards the first half of the year, and it slows down a little bit in the second half of the year.

Timothy W. Willi - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Okay. Yes, that's a good point. I was thinking about that incorrectly. The second is with HSAs, and I guess, thinking about what you're doing with Higher One and the deposit portfolio, is there anything around Evolution1 and deposits and your bank charter that might actually serve as an additional funding source for the business? Or is that not something that's really doable?

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

No, I'd say that's one of the synergies that we're looking at. It's probably a longer-term kind of play at this point, but there's no restriction in our bank charter that says we can't take in these types of deposits or we couldn't issue these types of programs. So that's something that we're definitely looking at. Now we're obviously sensitive to the fact that Evolution1 had banking partners at the same time, so we want to be careful there as well. But certainly, the banking partners that they have do their own issuing, and we wouldn't look to change that, but in cases where they're signing up new pieces of business or people are ambivalent about who the issuer is, then, that's definitely an opportunity for our bank. And it would offset interest rate risk, essentially, at our -- at -- on the operating interest line at our bank.

Timothy W. Willi - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Yes, yes. And then just the last one. Just sort of curious what you're hearing from partners. And again, as you guys have sort of studied this space, getting to know Evolution1. We're going into open enrollment season here, I think, for most of corporate America. Just sort of thinking about the environment with Affordable Care Act and more companies going high deductible and consumer awareness probably improving every year around HSAs, et cetera, what are your partners saying or doing around helping to drive more enrollment in HSAs, et cetera? Is there anything there that will be different than in prior years? Are they more optimistic? Is there more money being devoted to marketing in support of program managers?

Melissa D. Smith

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

I think a couple of things on that front. But first of all, just the announcement of having WEX acquire Evolution1 was very well received by the partners. It provided more stability around the business compared to having a private equity owner. And so there's more interest in expanding the relationships as a result. So I think that's the first positive. And then the second piece of that is there are continued trends that are favorable, like you just mentioned, in more movement to consumer-directed health care, which is something we had planned on. It does seem to be playing out. And I think, just even to add to that the idea of more movement in private exchanges, which is something that Evolution1 is really well-positioned to do, is something that we're seeing out -- play out also in the marketplace. So they've got a bunch of positive trends that are playing to our favor.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Togut with Evercore.

David Togut - Evercore Partners Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Evercore.

Could you discuss the new business pipeline internationally for more oil card outsourcing? Clearly, Shell and ExxonMobil have been leading the charge here, but do you see these initiatives by these 2 big oils leading some of the other international oils to take similar steps in the next year or 2?

Melissa D. Smith

Analyst · Evercore.

Yes, I think the announcement in general with Exxon to outsource this really did get a lot of attention within the European marketplace. Exxon is very well-respected in -- from a brand perspective, and so there is interest. We have a very robust pipeline of people that we're talking to. And one thing I would just caution is that these tend to be very long-term pipelines. They move through the process at their own speed as they go through their own organization approval processes. So I think we feel really good about the long-term opportunity within that space. But I would highlight the fact that even when you actually sign one of these customers, there's a pretty long implementation process. So I would caveat, growth there is long term in nature.

David Togut - Evercore Partners Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Evercore.

What is the catalyst for some of these big oils to outsource their portfolios now?

Melissa D. Smith

Analyst · Evercore.

Often, it's when they get to the point where they have to invest within their systems. So unlike here in the U.S., a lot of the companies there that are still processing internally. So when they get to the point either where they feel like the offering isn't competitive for some reason or they have a significant infrastructure investment, those are times when they'll sit back and reflect on whether or not they should be outsourcing.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Smitty Srethapramote with Morgan Stanley.

Smittipon Srethapramote - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Can you talk a little bit about the All Roads fuel card product that was launched earlier this month? Is that just access to both the Fleet One OTR's network plus the existing WEX network? And also, is this a sign of moving towards a single product for both the OTR and local fleets?

Melissa D. Smith

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Yes. So actually, what you just said is correct. Not sure I need to expand on that.

Smittipon Srethapramote - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Okay. okay, fair enough, then. Then maybe just moving on, can you talk more about the Sunoco Fleet One co-brand? How does that form of co-brand work? And again, is this just for SMEs or for all of Sunoco's fuel card fleet clients?

Melissa D. Smith

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Yes, so the Sunoco program, what we like about this, and obviously, we're working with another great brand here, but -- is the ability to take the private label relationships that we've experienced here on the retail side of our business with local fleets and move that into the over-the-road business. And so with Sunoco, what we've done is formed a relationship for their over-the-road business, which will -- we will be the back-end processing for their system for their over-the-road product. It's got rebates associated with it. So it's an over-the-road card that people can use at Sunoco locations where they actually have a rebate that's provided to them for use in those markets.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ramsey El-Assal with Jefferies.

Ramsey El-Assal - Jefferies LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Can you talk a bit about pricing activity in the quarter? I'm trying to get a better sense of whether pricing has become or will become or could become a lever you can work to offset some of the macro headwinds that you face. I know you've been testing quite a bit, but any material callouts in the quarter on pricing?

Melissa D. Smith

Analyst

You've seen a change in our pricing happen in the last couple of quarters, so you can see that translate through to some of our fees. And so we did get a little bit of lift year-over-year as a result of that. We are continuing to test some of those theories within -- particularly the small business marketplace to make sure that we're competitive in the market. And so I would say, we're still in more of a testing mode in terms of seeing that expand more broadly.

Ramsey El-Assal - Jefferies LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. You mentioned some continued financial support from your -- for your investment in Brazil. I know that you haven't sunk a whole lot of money in -- to Brazil at this point, but can you give us an update on your strategy there? How is it evolving? Is the challenging macro environment impacting any decisions to invest further? How is sort of Brazil going?

Melissa D. Smith

Analyst

Yes, the Brazil business, we've seen really great growth in that business. So just as a refresher, that product is largely 2 different things that we're offering down there: we have a payroll card that's then growing at a significant rate, well over 20% in that marketplace; and then on top of that, we have an over-the-road product that represents about 5% of the Brazilian OTR marketplace. And so we've continued to see growth of that product as well. In terms of additional expansion, we've been working with our virtual card product to make sure that we can get both regulatory approval and processing capabilities so that we can offer virtual card products on a local basis. And so that's something that has been ongoing for a bit of time. We've gotten the regular pre-approval now, we're just working our way through the technical hurdles that we have so that we can offer issuance there locally. So it's a market we're continuing to expand in, and I would say, at this point, we're growing mostly organically from the original investment that we've made. And we're seeing continued growth at a pretty accelerated rate in that marketplace.

Ramsey El-Assal - Jefferies LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Great, great. Last quick one for me. Can you elaborate on the uptick in credit losses in the quarter and potentially next? It sounds like you mentioned some bankruptcies. Anything structural in there as well? Or just a couple of one-off situations kind of impacting you?

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst

It seems more -- much more like the latter, one-off kind of situations. We had, I think, 3 bankruptcies during the quarter that were between $100,000 and $200,000, which isn't a huge number, but it also -- it moved the needle a little bit compared to what we had expected going in. I -- it -- really, in the end, it's right in the middle of the range. It's 10 -- just over 10 basis points. It's a pretty low number when you look at it compared to history, not necessarily recent history. But if you look back over quite a period of time, that's actually still a relatively low number. There is usually a bit of a deterioration in our aging in the fourth quarter. As you get towards the end of the year, people in small businesses get real busy with holiday celebrations or whatever, and our aging typically does deteriorate a little bit in the fourth quarter. So we know that and we've built that into our guidance, but that's a pretty normal phenomenon.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bob Napoli with William Blair. Robert P. Napoli - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: Quick questions on the Evolution1. First of all, what was the total revenue for the quarter in Evolution1? And I know, when you acquired it, you said around $80 million of revenue growing in the high teens. Any -- what was the revenue in the quarter? And then, is the $80 million still a good number for '14? And what is the growth rate?

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst

Yes, Bob, I'd say the revenue number for the quarter was in line with the $80 million for the year. Now bear in mind that we didn't own it for the entire quarter, so it's a little bit less than a $20 million number for the quarter. But the -- it was very much in line. It was literally within a couple hundred thousand dollars of what we expected for the quarter. So for the growth rate, I'd say, yes, that -- the high teens, 20% number is still the goal and still the expectation, and that's a good number going forward. Robert P. Napoli - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: Now the -- I mean, the HSA customer that you had, it -- I think, with that acquisition, they're going to have over 1 million accounts. And I think you just -- you haven't bought any of that business on yet. Is that correct? Would you expect that -- I mean, that would -- that's like a 10% increase by itself in the size of that business?

Melissa D. Smith

Analyst

It's a significant increase. It's going to happen over time, though. Some of the smaller accounts will convert, we believe, within this cycle. But some of the larger HSA partners -- HSA would be outsourcing or -- probably if it's converting, it's coming over from -- including partner relationships. Some of those will wait until the next cycle to convert. So you have 1 year lag before that happens. And so it is a big account. That's why we highlighted it. It's great that this has occurred, and I think it's a testament to Evolution1 and the very strong relationships that they have that this is occurring. But it will happen over a period of years. It's not -- going to happen immediately. Robert P. Napoli - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: Okay. That's a great win. The -- just to clarify, the online travel business, you had 21% growth in the U.S. and 29% growth overall. Is that -- did I hear that correct?

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst

Yes. We quoted 39% and said about 10% was attributable to Evolution1. So yes, you could say that. Robert P. Napoli - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: Okay. And then in the fourth quarter, acquisition -- the $10 million to $13 million that you're spending on the Esso deal -- first of all, the Esso deal, do you expect it to close by the end of the year? And how much of that $10 million to $13 million of investment is going to show up in the fourth quarter?

Melissa D. Smith

Analyst

I'll answer the latter question. So the -- we are still working with ExxonMobil to determine the close date, and so we don't know. That is the honest answer right now. But it -- we're feeling pretty good about where we are with the transaction. But that will be something that will be decided relatively close to when the actual close occurs. And so we're still saying the fourth quarter this year or first quarter of next year.

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst

In terms of the amount of the expense, Bob, I'd say that it's been building each quarter as we go through the year, and this fourth quarter is no different than that. The date of the transition will make some impact on that, but we're still within our range of that $10 million to $13 million. We're probably towards the lower end of that range overall for the year, but you will see the fourth quarter be the biggest number that we'll see all year long. Robert P. Napoli - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: Okay. And then Pacific Pride, how much revenue? I know it was $7 million revenue when you bought it. How much revenue are you losing through the sale of Pacific Pride?

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst

It's immaterial, Bob. It -- I mean, it's a pretty small business overall, and so we haven't quoted it exactly, but it's an immaterial number overall.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jim Schneider with Goldman Sachs.

James Schneider - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

I was wondering if you could maybe kind of update us on your view towards fuel price hedges at this point, given the dislocation that we see in the market. Any change to your strategy in terms of the time horizon on which you're laying on hedges and the magnitude of hedges you're willing to put on at this point? And any color on how far those are going to go out at this point would be helpful.

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

I'd say, right now, we're not planning on any changes to the strategy. We think that giving the investor base some visibility and predictability into the cash flows is important. That said, back in 2008, when there was a really big change in oil prices, we did step out of the marketplace for a couple of quarters and shorten up the duration. I'm not saying that we'll do that right now, but if things continue tumbling, we may not see the risk/reward there. In other words, if the prices get so low, the reward for hedging might not really be there for us. So right now, we don't plan on any changes, but I think it always depends a little bit on market conditions.

James Schneider - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

That's helpful. And then on a different topic, you talked about the increased proportion of revenue in Europe next year. Can you maybe give us a sense if things are going according to your plan today in terms of revenue for 2015? And given the spot prices that we're seeing right now in terms of the FX rates, roughly, what would be the magnitude of the revenue headwind you'd expect next year even if it's only an approximate number?

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

From the fuel price impact, Jim? Is that what you're asking?

James Schneider - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

No, from FX. FX.

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Oh, from FX. Oh, it's -- that's probably or actually a relatively small number. I mean, the impacts that we saw this quarter were more remeasurement impacts from some of the balances we had in our balance sheet. So from an operational perspective, I'd say, though -- I mean, they were there, obviously. The Aussie dollar would be the biggest one, and followed by the pound and the euro. But they were really pretty small from an operational perspective.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Phil Stiller with Citi.

Philip Stiller - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst · Citi.

I guess I just wanted to follow up on the fuel impact. Maybe you could help us quantify what the incremental revenue and EPS headwind is for the fourth quarter and how we should be thinking about 2015 impacts.

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst · Citi.

So for the fourth quarter, if you look at our previous guidance and our current guidance, the average price in the fourth quarter is going down about $0.33 from when we last talked to you in July. So that is an EPS impact to this year -- to this quarter, to this fourth quarter of about $0.04 overall in EPS. So we get a really big swing in the quarter and a marginal impact to the fourth quarter from an earnings perspective. So going forward, I mean, into next year, if spot prices are -- I'd call it, from the NYMEX are probably around $3. When you look at some Department of Energy index prices, they're probably more in the $3.20 range next year. So depending on kind of who you believe, our sensitivity is going to remain pretty much the same next year. An $8 million change in revenue for a $0.10 change in fuel prices, with about $0.05 falling down to EPS for every $0.10 change in fuel prices.

Philip Stiller - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst · Citi.

Okay, that's helpful. Following up on the virtual card growth. You have obviously had very good growth this year, particularly domestically. Do you guys feel like that growth is sustainable? Or do we run into comp issues at some point?

Melissa D. Smith

Analyst · Citi.

We've said that we believe that we're going to see growth over 20%, and it's something that we're seeing. And it's a combination of continued new customer signings along with growth of existing relationships.

Philip Stiller - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst · Citi.

Okay. And then I guess, stepping back from a high level, you have a lot of moving parts going into next year. Melissa, you've talked about the long-term growth targets of 10% to 15% for revenue and 15% to 20% for EPS. But as we move into next year, we have a lot of moving parts with the tax rate and Esso investments and maybe fuel prices. I guess, how should we think about those growth targets in this kind of environment?

Melissa D. Smith

Analyst · Citi.

Yes, no, I'd caveat saying they're long-term growth rates, which doesn't necessarily mean that they're going to be true every year or that they were applicable to next year. But I think, in general, what I'm trying to do is make sure that as we're thinking about our portfolio of assets, that we're putting it together and maximizing our asset base so that we're driving those results. So an example of that would be the addition of Evolution1. Really high growth, gives us a lot of opportunity to expand our addressable market share, and although that comes in at a lower margin than what we have in our fleet business. But if you aggregate those things together, you can see significant revenue growth and earnings drop-through. Something like fluctuations of fuel prices, I'd put that in the caveat of there are market conditions that are going to change that we need to be reflective of that, but I'm thinking about things more on a longer-term basis as opposed to what's going to impact us next quarter and how do we make sure that we pull all these things together in a way that there's enough diversification in the business that you can create some buffer for those type of things as well.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tien-tsin Huang. Tien-tsin Huang - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: I just wanted to ask on the fuel price front. What's the impact on the discount rate for fleet in the fourth quarter? Is there a new rule of thumb to consider given the lower level of fuel for the discount rate?

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst

Yes. So a $0.10 change in the fuel prices will have between a 0.5- and 1-basis-point impact. So as fuel prices are going down in the fourth quarter, you should see our net payment processing rate going up. Tien-tsin Huang - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Right. So inverse correlation. So it's $0.005 to 1 bp -- 0.5 bp to 1 bp is the rule of thumb.

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst

Yes. Tien-tsin Huang - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay. And just a Europe question because we've been fielding some questions around the regulation there and the inclusion of commercial or not. Just remind us, what are you guys watching there with respect to regulation, especially as you're bringing in Esso?

Melissa D. Smith

Analyst

Yes, so part of what we're looking at, actually, is the base business that we have there now, so the business that relates to our virtual cards in Europe. And actually, it's been really favorable movement of late. So the council has just actually issued some language that removed commercial cards from the actual language. Now that still has to go to Parliament and go through the whole approval process. But I would say, it's trending favorably right now in that marketplace, and it's something that we've clearly been watching and involved in. Tien-tsin Huang - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay. So the last iteration like we saw was net positive, so at this stage, just watching for the -- watching for the vote and for the review?

Melissa D. Smith

Analyst

Yes, that's right. That's right. And it's still a lengthy process that it needs to go through in order for it to reach approval. And they talked about that happening this year, but I think there's a question of whether that will really happen this year or if it will happen the first half of next year. Tien-tsin Huang - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay, got it. And then a last one, just the FX sensitivity. Steve, I know you talked about this quarter, but just is there same thing here on the -- like on the discount rate, is there a rule of thumb to consider operationally for FX changes for some of the big currencies you have? Euro, Aussie dollar, et cetera?

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst

Well, I'd say, only about maybe 15% of our revenue was outside of the U.S. So again, euro [ph] probably pretty small impact. The Aussie dollar would be the biggest one in the revenue line, followed by the probably the GBP and euro after that. And it'll grow, obviously, next year with Esso coming on. That'll probably -- that'll be our second largest piece of business. So again, although I'd still think it's relatively minor, and they're well-established currencies. They don't usually fluctuate by 5% or 10% like they did this quarter.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tom McCrohan with Sterne Agee. Thomas C. McCrohan - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division: Melissa, Steve, I just have one question on virtual card. Historically, that product has been a credit card construct, which made sense given the primary use case was discretionary travel. So given Evolution1 is primarily a nondiscretionary health care and HSA account's obviously more of a prepaid product, should we expect virtual card down the road to be expanded into like virtual prepaid or virtual debit?

Melissa D. Smith

Analyst

Well, we're using, actually, our virtual products both on a prepaid and debit basis, particularly in the European marketplace where it's more prevalent in usage. And so I'd say, just to start with, we actually have experience in -- or using the product in that way in certain cases. When you get to Evolution1, what we're still working through with them is when you would actually use the debit product and when you would insert a virtual card payment. Part of the value proposition could potentially be the float that comes with a credit product. And so we still need to work that through and go through a couple of prototypes with some of their partners in order to determine really optimally what's going to be the mix there. Thomas C. McCrohan - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division: Okay. And then I lied and I'll squeeze in one more for Steve. On the leverage ratio of 3x, where could that be 1 year from now assuming no more acquisitions and based on current free cash flow trends?

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst

I'd say -- first thing I'd say, Tom, is that, it's going to go up before it goes down because of the Esso transaction that we still have. Depending on the fuel prices and translation -- FX rates, $200 million, $300 million of purchase price still to go on Esso, so that'll bring us up in the range of 3.6x leverage, call it, the end of this year if that's when it happens. Over the course of next year, I would expect that to go down by about 1 turn. We'll securitize some receivables related to Esso. We will generate some cash flow during the year and bring that balance down pretty quickly, we think.

Operator

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Mike Grondahl with Piper Jaffray.

Michael J. Grondahl - Piper Jaffray Companies, Research Division

Analyst

Your use of deposits kind of continues to kind of grow as your business is growing. How are you just thinking of that as a source of financing? Are you diversified enough? And just kind of the potential that interest rates ever rise there, how are you kind of managing that?

Steven Alan Elder

Analyst

So I'd say, from a diversification standpoint, we use certificates of deposit. We use money market funds. We have NOW accounts. We have the relationship with Higher One. So we've got a number of different sources of funds. And even in the worst of financial times, say, in 2008 or 2009, the amount of capital available to us through those sources has never been an issue. We've always been able to get just as much capital as we -- that we ever needed. We use it to fund domestic receivables, and to the extent receivables go up, we'll continue to tap into those markets. And if they go down, then we'll let some of those deposits roll off. From an interest rate perspective and the risk associated with that, we obviously recognize we're in a pretty low rate environment. There's a couple of things you can do. You can either reduce the need for the deposits or you can reduce the interest rate associated with it, and we're trying to do both things. So we have recently tested shortening our payment terms by a few days, which will reduce the overall need for the deposits because the payments will be coming in quicker. And we're bringing in deposits that don't have interest associated with them on the NOW account, so Higher One would be an example. And if we are able to do some issuing for the Evolution1 deposit program there, that would help as well. So there's lots of different things that we can do to offset some of that risk.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Q&A session for today. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Micky Thomas for closing remarks.

Michael Thomas

Analyst

That concludes our call. Thank you, all, for joining us. Bye now.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes the WEX third quarter financial earnings conference call. You may now disconnect.