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WEX Inc. (WEX)

Q3 2008 Earnings Call· Mon, Nov 3, 2008

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning everyone and welcome to the Wright Express Corporation third quarter 2008 conference call. There will be an opportunity for questions after the prepared remarks. (Operator instructions) Today's call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I'd like to turn the call over to Steve Elder, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Steve Elder

President

Good morning. With me today is our CEO, Mike Dubyak, and our CFO, Melissa Smith. The financial results press release we issued earlier this morning is now posted in the Investor Relations section of our website at wrightexpress.com. A copy of the release has also been submitted as an exhibit to an 8-K we submitted to the SEC. We'll be discussing non-GAAP metrics, specifically adjusted net income, during our call. Please see Exhibit One included in the press release for an explanation and reconciliation of adjusted net income to GAAP net income. I'd also like to remind you that we will discuss forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those forward-looking statements as a result of various factors, including those discussed in our press release, most recent Form 10-K and other SEC filings. While we may update forward-looking statements in the future, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do. You should not rely on these forward-looking statements after today. With that, I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Mike Dubyak.

Mike Dubyak

CEO

Good morning, everyone. And thanks for joining us. We hit the low-end of our revenue range for revenue and guidance this quarter but getting there was more difficult than we expected. Credit loss was in line with our internal forecast and our operating expenses came in lower but what really affected us this quarter was the economy and the more pronounced slowdown in fuelling volume that we began seeing in early July – I’m sorry early August. For more than a year now, existing fleets have been adjusting to the weakening economy by cutting back on the number of vehicles they operate and by driving fewer miles, which reduces their fueling activity. This accelerated in the last two months of the third quarter as economic conditions deteriorated. And it was evident across most of our SIC codes and market segments. Although overall fueling volume for the third quarter was up 1% year-on-year it still fell well short of our internal projections. Even MasterCard spend and revenue – MasterCard spend and revenue from late fees came in lower than we expected and all told this cost roughly $0.07 per share in earnings. This was partially offset by the impact of lower compensation expense and higher fuel prices in the quarter. In spite of the rapid falloff in the economy we were on target in our projections for credit loss. As we said in our last call we are seeing an increase in customer bankruptcies and slower payment on past due accounts. The performance of our receivable portfolio in the third quarter was consistent with our internal projections at roughly 20 basis points of fleet credit loss. Given the further deterioration of the economy recently our revised full-year guidance assumes that we will have elevated losses in Q4. We expect credit loss…

Melissa Smith

CFO

Good morning everyone. As Mike outlined, today’s economic conditions are very different than they were three months ago. In forecasting Q3, our data suggested that volumes trends in July will continue through August and September, which obviously did not happen. Given this decline in volume we took aggressive measures to help manage costs in the business during the third quarter. We are now focused on generating the best possible results in a challenging environment and positioning ourselves for further growth when the economy turns around. This includes finding new opportunities for revenue generation within the installed base of customers, continuing to reduce costs and credit risk, and maximizing the potential for growth in our recently acquired businesses. Looking at our results for the third quarter of 2008 in detail, total revenue increased 24% to $108.5 million from $87.7 million for the third quarter of 2007. Net income to common shareholders on a GAAP basis was $72.3 million or $1.82 per diluted share. This compares with net income of $22.3 million or $0.55 per diluted share in Q3 last year. The company's adjusted net income for the third quarter of 2008 was $21.8 million or $0.55 per diluted share. This non-GAAP figure excludes an unrealized mark-to-market loss on our derivative instruments, as well as the amortization of purchased intangibles. Adjusted net income for the third quarter last year was $22.3 million or $0.55 per diluted share. The average number of vehicles serviced in Q3 2008 was approximately 4.5 million, compared with 4.4 million a year earlier. Total transactions grow 14% in Q3 2008 to $72.5 million from $63.4 million in the third quarter last year. Our transaction growth reflects a combination of the new Pacific Pride transactions and 3% organic growth. Combined with 40% growth in the price of fuel year-on-year…

Mike Dubyak

CEO

Thanks Melissa. We’re facing some of the toughest and most uncertain macroeconomic conditions of our life times and our guidance for fourth quarter takes this into account. Our challenge for this quarter and for 2009 is to continue to perform every lever we can to reduce costs and drive top line growth both for the short and long term. Taking the cost side of the equation first, as we saw our business slowing several quarters back we took early action by adjusting our hiring plans and not adding 60 new positions that we had budgeted for the year. That in early October we restructured our field sales operation and streamlined several other functions eliminating 53 additional positions across the company. The number of employees who actually left was 29. Since some of the people whose jobs were eliminated were assigned to other positions in jobs we recently created to service the GSA fleet business. Severance and other related expenses for the employees who are no longer with the company will result in a one-time charge of approximately $300,000 in the fourth quarter which is included in our guidance. We expect the reorganization to generate approximately $4 million in annual savings going forward. In terms of credit loss, we expect that 2009 will continue to be a challenging environment for losses. We have taken a number of steps to reduce our risk exposure in ‘09. For example, we have reduced the credit lines available to higher risk fleets and although they are a small part of our portfolio, we are now requiring that all new over the road truck fleets pay us no less than weekly as opposed to monthly for the other customer segments. With these and other measures we have taken we feel better about the outlook for credit…

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) Our first question today comes from the line of Greg Smith with Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question. Greg Smith – Merrill Lynch: Yes. Hi, good morning guys.

Mike Dubyak

CEO

Good morning. Greg Smith – Merrill Lynch: Just hoping to get some color on your CDs, where the rates that you are having to pay are falling sort of versus expectations just considering you know is there more – heavy demand but is there more competition. Just a little confused where those rates maybe falling down?

Melissa Smith

CFO

The rates we said were about 4.06% for the last quarter. The new CDs are between 3 and 4% depending on the maturity. I mean so there is definitely availability but we haven’t really seen a decline in rates. Greg Smith – Merrill Lynch: Who are the – how do you actually sell those CDs and who are actually the buyers?

Melissa Smith

CFO

We go through brokers and so we have a series of brokers, a half of dozen or so that we work with and they are selling to individuals. Greg Smith – Merrill Lynch: Okay. So they are brokered and then it is individual buyers.

Melissa Smith

CFO

Yes. Greg Smith – Merrill Lynch: Okay, and then Melissa with the charge-offs do you have a rule of thumb on just every 5 basis points of additional charge-offs what that does to EPS, or every 10, just some sensitivity there?

Melissa Smith

CFO

Yes, yes it is roughly 1 basis point charge-off equals $0.02 of earnings for the full year. Greg Smith – Merrill Lynch: $0.02 for the full year. Okay and then if you were to roll your next hedge if you were to do it today, do you know where the prices are roughly?

Melissa Smith

CFO

The prices are a little bit above 250 right now for 2010. Greg Smith – Merrill Lynch: Okay great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Tien-Tsin Huang – JPMorgan: Thanks. So, I guess my question – one question, let me ask the $0.07 shortfall that you called out in your prepared remarks. Can you break that down for us again? I didn’t quite catch exactly what drove the $0.07.

Melissa Smith

CFO

It is really volume. So, when we went into the third quarter as both Mike and I said we have looked at volume trends in the month of July, August and September trailed off lower than what we had anticipated by a couple of percent to 3% from what we had expected and that is driving the majority of that. We are also a little bit off on late fees in MasterCard which again we are trying to alter this. It seems to be driven by what is going on overall in the economy. Tien-Tsin Huang – JPMorgan: (inaudible) in the payment processing rate and where that came in with all the rebates. Hope that wasn’t much of a contributor?

Melissa Smith

CFO

No, no. We had said on the call, on our last call that we had anticipated renegotiating those rates and so it was very close to what we had expected. It was off a little bit because of the rebate. We are slightly higher than we expected but that wasn’t a material driver to the quarter. Tien-Tsin Huang – JPMorgan: Okay, so it is really just the volume trends and somewhat the late fees on MasterCard.

Melissa Smith

CFO

Late fees and mix on MasterCard. Tien-Tsin Huang – JPMorgan: The mix on MasterCard. Maybe if I just sneak a follow up then. And just the visibility into the payment processing rate in the fourth quarter and also like Greg asked maybe a (inaudible) given the restructuring every $0.15 change in stock prices. What does that equate to in terms of the payment processing rate?

Melissa Smith

CFO

The first part of your question. We have renegotiated with majority of the oil companies and we have reflected majority of that in our rate in Q3 and so we think actually that we are going to benefit because of the price of gas is dropping obviously and so we think that the rate with the merchants will actually go up a little bit sequentially in the fourth quarter because of that and we will see continued pressure we think on rebates as we continue to add large fleets, but the bulk of the pricing we think has been reflected already.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Napoli with Piper Jaffrey. Please proceed with your question. Robert Napoli – Piper Jaffrey: Thank you. Maybe follow up on Tien-Tsin’s question on the payment processing rate and kind of the outlook for the payment processing rate assuming that oil prices stay and gas prices stay generally where they’re at today. You mean you said that you expect to see that rate move up slightly in the fourth quarter from the reported rate in the third quarter and then would you expect to see that rate be stable then assuming no adjustments in oil prices for next year and then we would expect it to go up if oil prices decline and go down if oil prices increase?

Melissa Smith

CFO

We think that we have factored in most of the changes with the merchants. And we have got a little bit more negotiating to do. We said we have got about 55% locked in these hybrids and we think we will get to about 60% by the first quarter of next year to a little bit more. But we have to negotiate. So we think the rate with the merchants is relatively stable and that is just a question of the rebates to the fleet and that is going to be something we’re going to continue to see pressure with over time but it’ll be similar to what we have seen historically. Robert Napoli – Piper Jaffrey: Shouldn’t the pressure with oil at 66 versus 130 be dramatically less and?

Melissa Smith

CFO

Robert Napoli – Piper Jaffrey:

Mike Dubyak

CEO

What I was trying to say was that we put in new credit risk management programs that I think put us in a better place going into next year than if you would when we entered this year. I don’t think we’re trying to say that we have a good crystal ball on what the economy is going to do to the overall a risk of bad debt but at least our controls and some of the things we have done to tighten up the credit risk side of our business at least puts us in a better place. From a positioning standpoint, I don’t think we’re sitting here today saying that overall we’re projecting bad debt next year in some fashion for ‘09.

Melissa Smith

CFO

We do know that sequentially the Q4 and Q1 tend to be higher for us and we have definitely seen that pattern this year. And assuming from what we do have for visibility into next year we would presume that you would see a similar pattern to the first quarter of next year. But some of the 40 basis points is driven because the numerator is declining as fuel prices dropped. I’m sorry the denominator as fuel prices drop. Robert Napoli – Piper Jaffrey:

Mike Dubyak

CEO

With the current period’s PPG [ph].

Melissa Smith

CFO

The charge-offs were going to be coming through from about 120 to 150 days ago and so that will be on elevated fuel prices. And so that is also impacting the fourth quarter. Robert Napoli – Piper Jaffrey: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Burton with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question. Patrick Burton – Citigroup: Hi, good morning. I guess my question is that as you go through this difficult environment. What are the opportunities to gain market share from some of your weaker competitors. So when we come out someday on the other end of this you have got a lot of leverage in the business. Thanks.

Mike Dubyak

CEO

I think we’re continuing to see strong growth in our pipelines. Unfortunately, what is offsetting that as we have talked about is the installed base that is slowing but even our realignment was to make sure that our sales force now have more of a synergistic capability of selling the MasterCard together with the fleet card and then looking also across all of our diversification strategies of gees of TelePoint and WEXSMART. So all of that I think all will give us some lift, but I think the biggest thing is with our liquidity capabilities I think we want to be smart to say if there are opportunities that present themselves to us during this period we want to make sure we can take advantage of that. We think that it will be difficult times for companies and if we have the ability that can really help us in the future we will take advantage of that situation if possible. Patrick Burton – Citigroup: Just a quick sneak in follow-up, Mike aren’t some of your competitors owned by private equity companies if I recall that they may have some very significant financial leverage?

Mike Dubyak

CEO

They do. Two of our competitors are owned by private equity players. Patrick Burton – Citigroup: Okay, thank you.

Mike Dubyak

CEO

You bet.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Willi with Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question. Timothy Willi – Avondale Partners: Thanks. I know you haven’t given ‘09 guidance, obviously you have given us fourth quarter of ‘08 but I’m just wondering qualitatively if you could talk about what you think will be the more important variable over the next three to four quarters, will it be volume or credit losses in terms of what you guys expect to be probably the bigger driver over the next several quarters of earnings?

Mike Dubyak

CEO

I think they both will but we want to make sure on the volume side we have talked about the fact that the differences next year would be things like the GSA being there for the full year, looking at the Citi capability coming on in the first half of next year as well. So I think those are some of the changes to next year but clearly the slowdown we have seen in the embedded base, we’re assuming will continue and we’re assuming that there’ll be continuing to be pressure on bad debt as well. Timothy Willi – Avondale Partners:

Mike Dubyak

CEO

It is the smaller one and the change is we moved it over to a funded program. So that is what we talked about, it’ll give us a little bit of lift on revenue for that portfolio and won’t be as much of an impact to the bottom line for us because it is a funded program. Timothy Willi – Avondale Partners: Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Anurag Rana – KeyBanc Capital Markets: Hi good morning. Melissa this question is just about the cost, the salaries and the other personnel cost down sequentially about 3.7 million. You know in the fourth quarter should we look at similar run rate in salary and other personnel expense and I think I heard Mike talk about a reduction of overall expenses around $4 million for next year. Is that off of a base of $14.5 million or the $18 million that we saw in the second quarter?

Melissa Smith

CFO

Okay. There are about $2.5 million dollars of compensation charges in Q3 that we reversed from prior periods and so that is something that is going to be unique to Q3. So would need to reflect that in anything you are projecting going forward. The $4 million that Mike talked about is all from our previous run rate. So that wouldn’t apply to that reduced base mostly because of that one-time charge. Anurag Rana – KeyBanc Capital Markets:

Melissa Smith

CFO

We intend to give guidance for ‘09 on our next call. So I can’t give you a range right now. Obviously we’re spending a lot of time looking at 2009 and I think Mike gave a bunch of the highlights and we know we have got some uncertainty around credit loss. We know that the fourth and first quarter are typically higher and that is seasonal. We haven’t seen a significant decline in credit quality. So the good indicator is underneath when you actually start dwelling into the portfolio itself. So you are seeing minor erosions within that base but not anything that is a wholesale change and as Mike said you know looking at volume trends continuing from the fourth quarter into next year. And so we’re paying attention to try and reduce costs and adding new sources of revenue that we haven’t seen in the past to try to offset some of the uncertainty. Anurag Rana – KeyBanc Capital Markets: Thanks and just one more. Could you give us any idea about free clash flow estimate for 2008? Thanks.

Melissa Smith

CFO

All right. Free cash flow estimate I would still put it roughly in line of – with our ANI guidance. We haven’t had any significant changes between depreciation and our CapEx estimates. Anurag Rana – KeyBanc Capital Markets: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Tom McCrohan – Janney Montgomery Scott: Yes hi. Just trying to get a read on the charge-offs for this quarter. What was the dollar amount of net charge-offs in Q3?

Melissa Smith

CFO

It is not something that we have disclosed yet. Tom McCrohan – Janney Montgomery Scott: If you take the – based on it looks like it got better based on sequential change in reserve levels that you reported. You can kind of – you can back into it with the change in reserves at the end of the quarter was $16.4 million in reserves (inaudible) net charge-offs given the provision for the quarter and it looks like charge-offs on a net basis were down to like $7.8 million.

Melissa Smith

CFO

Charge-offs as they have generally increased a little bit sequentially. We haven’t seen a huge change between Q3 and Q3. We are digging in through the numbers, but there wasn’t a significant change up or down if you are looking at it sequentially. We do anticipate it sequentially being a little bit higher in Q4 and that is as I said before somewhat driven based on fuel prices earlier in the year, you are starting to hit the periods when they were really elevated in Q2. And so that is driving some of the increase and some of that is just the people on the phone that are talking to our customers are having a little bit harder time collecting on some the most delinquent accounts. Tom McCrohan – Janney Montgomery Scott: Are there any significant recoveries during the quarter?

Melissa Smith

CFO

Definitely there were recoveries, yes. Not a wild change though in the amount that we’re recovering. Tom McCrohan – Janney Montgomery Scott:

Melissa Smith

CFO

Mike Dubyak

CEO

And the fuel price is on the unhedged portion she is talking about. Tom McCrohan – Janney Montgomery Scott:

Melissa Smith

CFO

Tom McCrohan – Janney Montgomery Scott: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Robert Dodd – Morgan Keegan: Hi guys. Going back to kind of the payment processing rate and the sensitivity to fuel prices how that affects the hedging program? Obviously, with negotiating more flat fee into the rate with your customers, you have reduced your sensitivity but the hedge was put on – most of the hedges that are going to affect in the next couple of quarters were put on well before those prices were renegotiated. Was the change in sensitivity of earnings, was it part of a longtime plan to renegotiate those prices and so it was built into the hedge or we’re going to have an increasing mismatch with the presumed hedge sensitivity being much more than the actual sensitivity in the fuel prices for the next couple of quarters.

Melissa Smith

CFO

We had presumed to when we were doing the hedge purchases that we would layer in more hybrid contracts in this year. And so we have got questioned in the past on why the number of gallons we are hedging are actually declining and that was because we would foresight into the fact that we did anticipate going through this type of a contract. Robert Dodd – Morgan Keegan: Just (inaudible) did you expect to be in the position you are now or did you factor in going from a third fixed fee or a third hybrid to 50% or 60% I mean basically, I mean is it exactly in line with what you are looking for – or is there some difference?

Melissa Smith

CFO

It is very close to what we expected. Robert Dodd – Morgan Keegan: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ben Cadlac – First Investors: Hi how are you. Question on the GSA and Citi, can you give us an idea may be off the quarterly revenue and earnings benefit you know on a normalized level for ’09 with each of those we provide or your kind of your base revenue and earnings in the fourth quarter or this quarter?

Mike Dubyak

CEO

I can give you some of the information to kind of benchmark what this is going to do in terms of transactions and total fuel transaction growth to Wright Express. The GSA, for example, is about 250,000 vehicles about $7.5 million fuel transactions and another $1.5 million non-fuel transactions. So that will increase our vehicles by about 5% in transactions about 3% to 4%. And I think you can probably then factor that in. On Citi there will be about 100,000 vehicles that will come on as we said probably in the first half of the year. There is approximately 4.5 million transactions and the annual revenue depending on the price of the gas would be in the range of $4 million to $5 million. Ben Cadlac – First Investors: Okay. And then on – any other sort of large contracts like that in (inaudible) currently?

Mike Dubyak

CEO

There is nothing else that, you know, we can say as mature enough to talk about.

Melissa Smith

CFO

Not at that size.

Mike Dubyak

CEO

Not at that size.

Melissa Smith

CFO

I only thing I would add to that on the GSA is that their average transaction size is a little bit smaller than we are used to as an average fleet just because of the vehicle mix that they have. Ben Cadlac – First Investors: Okay. So – and then do you have an idea of I mean how many more I guess the rate of increasing market share on the smaller transaction size you sort of look to your pipeline and deals on that?

Melissa Smith

CFO

Ben Cadlac – First Investors: Yes.

Mike Dubyak

CEO

And I think there continues to be spread. I mean we continue to have good success with our inside sales organizations that brings in small fleets. We still have good success with our outside sales force bringing in the midsize fleets and then we have a sales force focused on very large elephants like the GSA but there aren’t many of those out there. So the pipeline is pretty robust across all fleet sizes and even – you know, even MasterCard has had a good strong October and we continue to see that as a growth opportunity.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen the next question comes from the line of Robert Napoli with Piper Jaffrey. Please proceed with your question. Robert Napoli – Piper Jaffrey: I was hoping you’ll give an update on the progress you have made on the international business with the acquisition and what your strategy is for that piece of the company.

Mike Dubyak

CEO

Yes it is too early to talk about anything specific but the strategy has been that we want to use this to be a processor and operator for international portfolios for the major oil companies that are now managing their business on a worldwide basis. So the heads of these businesses are managing worldwide where in the past they used to be silos [ph] in the different continents which gives us the ability to hopefully leverage the relationships we have built in North America and the strength we built in North America with our brand and reputation. So we’re having good robust discussions. We feel very good about the progress but beyond what we are servicing today in the Asia Pacific market there is nothing more that I can talk about specifically. Robert Napoli – Piper Jaffrey: I mean do you see the opportunities as more or less, what I mean, how it is – 5 years now how significant as a piece of your business would you like it to be, or something in that regard?

Mike Dubyak

CEO

Yes I don’t think we have given guidance on that but we clearly see it being, you know, it is going to take till 2011 and 2012 before it becomes really meaningful but I don’t know. We don’t have meaningful revenue probably (inaudible).

Melissa Smith

CFO

I think if you look at that, just the size of opportunities out there we’re excited about the potential. It is just in the long-term arrangements and so that’ll even take a few years to even get the contract in place.

Mike Dubyak

CEO

In some of the negotiations could be anything from just being a processor using our new system to fully operational to where we might fund receivables. So the revenue streams will vary depending on which one of those three are in place for some of these major oils. Robert Napoli – Piper Jaffrey:

Mike Dubyak

CEO

We feel very comfortable with addressing the needs of the major oils that we have talked about. The platform is what we need to be successful. Could there be opportunities just to enhance the overall value proposition we offer these majors and fleets. That is a possibility for acquisition but the basic FAL platform gives us what we need to penetrate that international market. Robert Napoli – Piper Jaffrey: Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, our next question comes from the line of Timothy Willi with Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question. Timothy Willi – Avondale Partners: Thank you. A follow-up on credit, I can’t remember if you said it or not but are your delinquency rates still generally running at about 1% of volume?

Melissa Smith

CFO

Yes our hedging is about 98% current, which is a little bit over 98% which is actually in line with Q3 of last year. Timothy Willi – Avondale Partners: Okay so no real change there in terms of aggregate. And then second is – obviously you got a very large installed base by just thinking sort of forward for the company longer term is there anything you are seeing now in terms of the underwriting or selling process with new accounts in terms of managing credit risk more effectively to ensure tighter underwriting on a go forward basis with new accounts being more selective. I think you have learned from people that are having problems that you identify on the front end and say this is not the kind of customer you want to be selling to because there is a higher risk of loss under financial restraint. Anything like that?

Melissa Smith

CFO

Yes I actually give you a bit of a lengthy answer back. We also go through and post mortem our losses that are greater than $25,000. It has been something we have done as a practice and obviously there is more of them now. And so based on that we are continuously evaluating our credit policies to see if we should make any changes. The most significant change we have made is with the heavy truck market which is a very small percentage of our portfolio but has driven the higher percentage of losses than the size of the customer base. And so we’re requiring people to pay us quicker now. We have also gone through and looked at the risk rating of the portfolio and pulled back credit lines with the riskier of the accounts. Our approval rates in general are down almost 10% actually a little bit over 10% compared to last year and so there has also been a whole host of things that I would say actions we have taken in order to make sure that we are limiting our exposure as much as we can.

Operator

Operator

Thank you ladies and gentlemen. Unfortunately we have reached the end of our allotted time. Therefore, I would like to turn the call back to Mr. Elder for any closing remarks.

Steve Elder

President

That concludes our call today and we thank you for joining us.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.