Kristen Shults
Analyst · Keith Stanley from Wolfe Research. Your line is open
Thank you, Michael, and good afternoon, everyone. Our fourth quarter natural gas throughput decreased by 1% on a sequential quarter basis, primarily due to lower throughput from certain noncore assets and slightly lower throughput in the Delaware Basin associated with the impact of Winter Storm Elliott. We also experienced lower throughput on our natural gas equity investments during the quarter. Our crude oil and natural gas liquids or NGLs throughput decreased by 9% on a sequential quarter basis. This was primarily due to the divestiture of Cactus II that closed in early November. Excluding the sale of Cactus II, our crude oil and NGL throughput would have decreased by 1% sequentially. Produced water throughput decreased by 3% compared to the prior quarter, primarily due to the impact from Winter Storm Elliot. Our fourth quarter per Mcf adjusted gross margin for our natural gas assets decreased by $0.06 compared to the prior quarter. This decrease was primarily driven by lower contribution from our retained residue and NGL volumes combined with lower overall residue and NGL pricing as well as contract mix in the Delaware Basin. This was all partially offset by a favorable revenue recognition cumulative adjustment recorded in the fourth quarter associated with the higher cost of service rate pertaining to our South Texas asset. We expect our first quarter per Mcf adjusted gross margin to be in line with the fourth quarter. Our per barrel adjusted gross margin for crude oil and NGL assets for the fourth quarter increased by $0.20 compared to the prior quarter, primarily due to the divestiture of Cactus II equity investment. While throughput declined quarter-over-quarter as a result of the sale, we received distribution payments in early November, which positively impacted the per unit margin. The positive impact was partially offset by an unfavorable revenue recognition cumulative adjustment recorded in the fourth quarter associated with lower cost of service rates at our DJ Basin oil system. We expect our first quarter per barrel adjusted gross margin to increase modestly relative to the fourth quarter, mostly due to the unfavorable revenue recognition cumulative adjustment recorded in the fourth quarter and the impact of the sale of Cactus II. Our per barrel adjusted gross margin for our produced water assets decreased by $0.02 compared to the prior quarter, primarily due to lower deficiency fee revenue. We expect our first quarter per barrel adjusted gross margin to decrease modestly relative to the fourth quarter, mostly due to a cost of service rate redetermination that became effective on January 1. During the fourth quarter, we generated net income available to limited partners of $329 million and adjusted EBITDA of $516 million. Relative to the third quarter, our adjusted gross margin decreased by $35 million, primarily due to lower overall throughput and the effects from Winter Storm Elliot. Additionally, we experienced less margin contribution from our retained revenue and NGL volumes combined with lower overall residue and NGL pricing. During the fourth quarter, we also recorded revenue recognition cumulative adjustments associated with redetermined cost of service rates on certain contracts. The overall cumulative impact of these recorded adjustments to fourth quarter, net income and adjusted EBITDA was neutral to WES. But as previously mentioned, the individual adjustments impacted our adjusted gross margin per unit for both our natural gas and crude oil and NGL assets. As expected, we saw a sequential quarter decrease in our O&M expense, primarily driven by lower utility expense associated with lower natural gas pricing and electricity usage and certain maintenance projects shifting into early 2023. The third quarter also included field-level project costs to support our transformation efforts. As we look towards the future, we expect our 2023 O&M expense to trend modestly higher than 2022, primarily due to higher personnel and land-related costs pertaining to our produced water business. As a reminder, we expect seasonality associated with our utility expense due to greater energy consumption during the summer months. Turning to cash flow. Our fourth quarter cash flow from operations totaled $489 million, generating free cash flow of $366 million. Free cash flow after our third quarter distribution payment in November totaled $169 million. We also declared our fourth quarter cash-based distribution of $0.50 per unit paid on February 13. This distribution is equal to the prior quarter's distribution and is consistent with the previously announced annualized base distribution target of $2 per unit. Turning to our full year results. Our average throughput portfolio-wide for all three products increased year-over-year. Full year 2022 natural gas throughput averaged 4.21 billion cubic feet per day. which increased by 1% compared to full year 2021. Full year 2022, crude oil and NGL throughput averaged 676,000 barrels per day, an increase of 3% compared to full year 2021. Full year 2022 produced water throughput averaged 836,000 barrels per day, an increase of 19% compared to full year 2021. These average year-over-year increases were primarily driven by increased throughput in the Delaware Basin in 2022. In 2022, our per Mcf adjusted gross margin for natural gas assets averaged $1.32, an increase of $0.08 year-over-year. This was primarily due to strong plant performance and contract mix, leading to increased retained residue and NGL volumes coupled with higher commodity prices. Additionally, throughput increase at the West Texas Complex, which has a higher than average per Mcf margin compared to other natural gas assets. Our per barrel adjusted gross margin for crude oil and NGL assets averaged $2.46, an increase of $0.18 year-over-year, this was primarily due to increased throughput and deficiency fee revenues in the Delaware Basin, which has a higher than average per barrel margin as compared to our other crude oil and NGL assets, a smaller negative impact related to the cumulative catch-up adjustment for certain cost of service contracts at the DJ Basin oil system relative to 2021 and an increase in distributions from Cactus II. Our per barrel adjusted gross margin for produced water assets averaged $0.94, an increase of $0.01 year-over-year. As Michael previously mentioned, we recorded the highest net income and adjusted EBITDA in the history of our partnership in 2022, generating $1.19 billion and $2.13 billion, respectively. Our adjusted EBITDA performance was primarily driven by increased throughput in the Delaware Basin for all three products and strong plant performance. This resulted in a margin uplift associated with retained residue and NGL volumes coupled with higher overall commodity pricing. This positioned WES to deliver operating cash flow of approximately $1.7 billion for 2022. Our capital expenditures totaled $538 million in 2022 and consisted mostly of expansion and well connect capital to support the growing needs of our customers. Our capital spend was below the low end of our 2022 guidance range, in part due to our team's continued focus on disciplined capital spending throughout the year, some expansion and maintenance projects shifting into early 2023 and a refined construction timeline for Mentone Train III that included costs moving into 2023. Our free cash flow generation totaled $1.268 billion in 2022, just above the low end of our 2022 guidance range. Our performance highlights our profitable asset base and our disciplined and consistent focus on capital spending. We achieved our full year 2022 base distribution guidance of $2 per unit on an annualized basis. Our ability to maintain a sustainable base distribution is a core component of our capital return framework. As we turn our attention to 2023, we expect our portfolio-wide average throughput to increase year-over-year by a mid-single-digit percentage for natural gas and a mid-20s percentage for produced water. For crude oil, we expect our average year-over-year throughput to increase by a low single-digit percentage after excluding the impact of Cactus II, which accounted for an average of approximately 65,000 barrels per day to WES in 2022. In the Delaware Basin, we expect average year-over-year throughput to increase across all three products due to an increased number of wells coming online in 2023 relative to 2022. We expect producers to add approximately 340 wells this year in the Delaware Basin, which is a meaningful increase relative to approximately 246 wells that came online in 2022. As a result, we have allocated the necessary amount of expansion and well connect capital into our 2023 capital budget to service this projected incremental volume in 2024. In the DJ Basin, we continue to expect average year-over-year throughput to decline for both natural gas and crude oil and NGLs. We expect our overall natural gas throughput decline profile to continue to shallow out or be less steep consistent with 2022 results. This is primarily due to the maturity of the wells on our acreage coupled with steady throughput from on loads. For crude oil and NGLs, we still expect our average year-over-year throughput to decline, but we're expecting an inflection point in the third quarter as additional wells come online in the first half of 2023. As such, we expect crude oil and NGL throughput to begin growing in the back half of 2023. Keep in mind that this increase in crude oil and NGL throughput in the second half will have a minimal impact on our adjusted EBITDA due to deficiency fee revenue we collect associated with minimum volume commitments. As you know, we entered into and converted certain natural gas processing agreements from actual recoveries to fixed recoveries for several customers during the first half of 2022. Based on these new contracts and contract amendments, we are providing our portfolio-wide commodity price sensitivity analysis for 2023. This analysis assumes expected recovery elections and normal plant operating conditions, and it includes our commodity price exposure through our legacy percent of proceeds and key pole contracts as well as these fixed recovery contracts. 2022 was an incredibly successful year, operationally and financially, for WES as we grew adjusted EBITDA by 9% compared to 2021. Our strong adjusted EBITDA growth was the result of increased throughput in the Delaware Basin, our contract structures that enable us to benefit from the commodity price environment on our retained residue and NGL volumes and diligently managing our cost structure during this period of price inflation. Turning to 2023 guidance. We expect our 2023 adjusted EBITDA to range between $2.05 billion to $2.15 billion, which implies the midpoint of $2.1 billion. We expect the Delaware Basin to comprise 55% of our asset level EBITDA as throughput continues to grow on our position in the basin. We expect that increased adjusted EBITDA from the Delaware Basin will be partially offset by continued production declines in the DJ Basin and the impact from the sale of Cactus II. Additionally, we expect reduced efficiency fee revenue associated with our Maverick Basin assets in South Texas and with the expiration of certain long-term minimum volume commitments at our Capita facility in Utah. As we look to 2024 and beyond, we expect reduced deficiency fee revenue from our Maverick Basin assets. However, we do not anticipate any material minimum volume commitment expiration on our owned assets. Finally, we expect the DJ Basin to contribute approximately 29% of our asset-level EBITDA in 2023 with the remaining 16% coming from our equity investments and other noncore assets. We expect our 2023 capital expenditure guidance to range between $575 million and $675 million, implying a midpoint of $625 million. We expect approximately 82% of our capital budget to be spent in the Delaware Basin, the majority of which will be expansion capital, including capital associated with the construction of Mentone Train III. We came in below the low end of our 2022 capital guidance range, mostly due to capital associated with Mentone Train III moving into 2023. Additionally, we expect to have slightly higher maintenance capital associated with our expanded asset base, which includes the Ranch Westex acquisition. Taking both our adjusted EBITDA and capital expenditure guidance into account, we expect to generate free cash flow between $1.125 billion to $1.225 billion in 2023. We expect to maintain an annualized base distribution greater than or equal to $2 per unit. Also, as a reminder, any potential enhanced distribution payment in 2024 will be based on our full year 2023 financial performance, governed by our year-end 2023 leverage threshold of 3.2 times and subject to the Board's discretion. I'll now turn the call back over to Michael.