Ben Fink
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Thanks, Jaime. There's a lot going on in our space right now, and I'd be remiss if I didn't share my thoughts on the state of our market. There are many valid questions being raised about whether growth is being valued by unitholders, and whether MLPs need to become less reliant on equity market access to fund their capital programs. We welcome these questions, and we believe we've shown leadership on these issues as our industry continues to transform. Our current distribution growth is less than half of what it was 25 years ago, and we resisted calls by some earlier this year to boost our near-term growth rate by utilizing our dropdown inventory. We've managed our business so that we would minimize capital market access. Our last overnight equity raise was in November of 2014, and the last sale on our ATM program was in June of 2015. We did issue convertible preferred units to private investors to fund an acquisition in February of 2016, when the public markets were effectively closed. While there are some in our sector that require equity market access to fund their ongoing capital needs, it would be inaccurate to put Western Gas on that list. We expect to continue our tradition of prudent balance sheet management that will serve to mitigate the risk of overreliance on capital market access. We greatly value the feedback we receive from our unitholders, and many of you know that we actively solicit it. We cannot forget the large segment of our unitholder base that values the current income they receive, nor do we wish to turn a deaf ear to the institutions who use other metrics when making investment decisions. So I describe our current thinking on distribution growth as ever so slightly revised. When we set the two-year WES distribution growth range of 7% to 9%, we felt comfortable in our portfolio's ability to generate a base growth rate of $0.015 per quarter, which is approximately 7% a year. We felt we could add to that base rate of growth during periods in which our assets generated additional cash flow. Now we believe that the right balance is to stick with the $0.015 quarterly growth rate and reinvest any additional cash flows above that. Another way of saying all this is that we now intend to be at the low end of our previously stated distribution growth guidance range. There's another important trend out there that warrants discussion, and that's the actions that many of our customers are taking to spend within cash flow. I want to be clear on this point. This is a good thing. It helps alleviate downward commodity price pressure that comes with increased supply, and it leads to improved customer financial health, both of which should provide stability in the energy capital markets. It's good for the energy industry, and a healthy energy industry is nothing but positive for our business. Investors with short time horizons will see a downside to this trend as a producer who outspends cash flow will likely deliver more short-term growth than one who exercises capital discipline. But Western Gas is designed to deliver for years not just quarters, and we're therefore highly encouraged by this development. We plan to release our official 2018 outlook later this year, but it's fair to say there are some shorter-term implications that I want you to be aware of. For example, the next couple of quarters look like they'll be tighter than usual, with distribution coverage closer to 1.0 than 1.1. This will be particularly noticeable next quarter, as we expect to record up to $7 million of higher operating expenses in the Eagle Ford related to the provision of lean fuel gas. This is a result of an updated commercial agreement under which these expenses will be incorporated into our cost of service rate calculations starting in 2018. We still expect that 2018 will have full year distribution coverage in line with our longer-term goals as volumes ramp following the startup of critical West Texas infrastructure in the first half of the year. Additionally, our capital program next year will be robust, as we will be in various stages of development of four processing trains, two in the Delaware and two in the DJ, as well as completing our buildout of our West Texas gas infrastructure. Keep in mind the pipelines we are installing today are sized to avoid having to loop them tomorrow. We have great conviction around this strategy, given the tremendous underlying resource space in the Delaware that is years away from peak production. It should therefore be no surprise that we anticipate higher CapEx in 2018 than in 2017. I'm quite proud of the team's achievements on capital efficiency, particularly with respect to well connection capital, which has driven some of the reductions in our 2017 capital spending. Above and beyond the capital needs for our existing assets, we have options to participate in a variety of third-party projects, two of which, the Red Bluff pipeline in the Delaware and the Cheyenne Connector pipeline in the DJ, have already been publicly announced, and we expect more to come. Our willingness to exercise any option will be a function of our estimate of the project return as well as our ability to comfortably fund the additional capital. Finally, since we continue to get questions about our thoughts on our structure, I thought I'd take a brief moment to address the topic. There's an increasingly contentious debate in our marketplace. Some believe IDRs have proven to be an effective means of incentivizing sponsors to grow distributions, while others believe the impact on equity cost of capital more than outweighs any such incentive. Frankly, we think both these have merit. Since our inception in 2008, we've been fully aware that IDRs have a finite lifespan, and the length of such lifespan is a function of what is essentially a mathematical exercise. As I say it a couple of quarters ago, when an MLP's weighted average cost of capital approaches its returns on capital, it needs to take steps to address it. We will proactively do so at the appropriate time. Thanks to all of you for your support of Western Gas. We still believe we have the best footprints in the two premier basins in America, and the most supportive MLP sponsor, all supplemented by a high-class inventory of droppable assets. We're built to deliver stable growth over longer-term horizons, and look forward to engaging with each of you as we continue our current buildout that will set us up for years to come. With that, operator, I'd like to open up the line for questions.