Todd Penegor
Analyst · Oppenheimer. Your line is open
Thanks, GP. As we move into 2021, our playbook of investing to drive accelerated growth behind our three long-term pillars remains the same. We have plans in place to significantly build our breakfast daypart, drive our digital business and expand our footprint across the globe. We have been investing in growth over the last several years with significant investments made across our growth pillars. For breakfast, we invested nearly $20 million to ready the US system for its launch and invested $15 million in incremental advertising in 2020 and plan to do the same in 2021. In the area of digital, we have made investments to build out our mobile app, launch our loyalty program and bring in top notch talent. In terms of development, we invested millions early in our reimaging program and have continued to make substantial investments through our new restaurant incentive programs and by developing innovative design solutions to fit the needs of any trade area, enable our growing digital business and improve returns. Underneath our growth pillars are three foundational items; the first is fast food done right, which is our team focused on food that is fresh and craveable at a competitive price, the second is operational excellence, which is running consistently great restaurants every day, and lastly, good done right, which is our commitment to do the right thing in the area of environmental, social and governance. I did want to mention that we will be releasing our annual CSR report in April, where we plan to announce new goals and report our progress against industry accepted reporting frameworks. We are excited to continue to share the important work we are doing in this area. Our plans remain deeply rooted in the foundation of the restaurant economic model. We believe that with the addition of our breakfast daypart and strong restaurant margins in the back half of the year, our franchise system has never been healthier. The combination of strong sales and margins fuels reinvestments into people, technology, reimaging and new development, which drives our confidence in growth for the future. With that, let's talk through our strategic growth pillars. We were thrilled with the launch of our breakfast daypart in 2020, and we know that we are just scratching the surface of its potential, as we continue to believe that we can get to 10% plus of sales relatively quickly. Through our marketing efforts and high-quality offerings, we have grown our awareness to very solid levels, seen strong customer repeat, and customer satisfaction has been overwhelmingly positive. In the fourth quarter, breakfast remained solid at approximately 7% of sales and drove a meaningful increase to restaurant AUVs in 2020. We believe that breakfast has been and will be transformative to our overall restaurant economic model, giving us fuel for growth into the future. On top of an increase to restaurant AUVs, breakfast remains profit accretive, which is a game-changer for our economic model. This will be a benefit to overall franchise health and should be a tailwind to new restaurant development as unit economics have improved significantly as a result. As we turn the page to 2021, we are expecting this business to grow by 30% through a combination of year-over-year same-restaurant sales growth through higher average weekly sales and rolling over two months where we did not have breakfast fully launched across the US system. We plan to continue to support breakfast with more advertising dollars year-over-year to drive trial and frequency as we continue to ingrain Wendy's into morning routines. This higher spend will be supported by a $15 million company investment and the resumption of marketing contributions on breakfast sales as the abatement offered as part of the COVID relief package has ended. The great news is that we are seeing the marketing messaging around the quality food we deliver at breakfast, haloing back to support our rest-of-day business. We said that we are going to bring America the breakfast it deserved, and we have delivered on that promise. Getting this business to 10% plus of sales remains our goal, and we are confident this will happen by the end of 2022. The key to this business moving forward will be improvements in mobility as consumers return to their daily routines. We believe this, coupled with our incremental investment in marketing, will unlock this daypart to drive significant growth in 2021 and beyond. Our digital business was another bright spot for us in 2020 as it saw meaningful acceleration as the result of additional delivery partners and the launch of our loyalty program. In the fourth quarter, our digital business grew to over 6% of sales in the US, which was more than double the amount we had in the prior year. And our digital traffic share growth reached double-digits, which is ahead of our key competitors. We also continue to see expansion in our delivery business on the strength of strong promotions with our delivery partners as well as momentum in our loyalty program. Since the launch of loyalty in the third quarter, we have seen significant increases in our monthly active users by about 25%. And at the end of the year, we had approximately 3 million active users to go along with 12 million total members. We believe that this business is going to continue to accelerate meaningfully to reach 10% of sales by the end of 2021. As GP will talk about later, we are making significant investments to drive this business and partnership alongside our franchisees. As a company, we will continue to make incremental investments like we have over the past years in our technology infrastructure to ensure that this business can thrive. We are hyper-focused on turning our restaurants into what we call frictionless transaction centers. We launched curbside and mobile grab-and-go in 2020 and expect both to grow significantly in 2021 as we build awareness around these new ordering platforms. At the core of our digital business is the opportunity that exists to build one-to-one relationships with our customers. Under the leadership of Kevin Vasconi, our new Chief Information Officer, we are investing in data analytics and are building what we believe to be a best-in-class digital organization to take this business to another level across the globe. We made significant progress in digital in 2020, but we are just getting going in this area. As consumer behaviors continue to change, along with the investments we are making as a brand, we expect to see this business grow meaningfully for years to come. Our third strategic growth pillar is expanding our footprint. And just like our other two pillars, we have momentum. In 2020, we opened almost 150 new restaurants. And we ended with positive net unit growth, which exceeded our expectations after we allowed franchisees to delay new unit commitments as part of our COVID relief package. In a lot of cases, franchisees said, thanks, but we want to keep growing and continue to build new restaurants, which shows their belief in the Wendy's brand. Under the leadership of Abigail Pringle, who leads our global development organization, we have built a very strong team that is driving growth in many ways. We have expanded our new franchise recruiting resources and accelerated these opportunities. The team has also built strategic relationships with capital and financing partners and has launched a conversion task wars that is transforming numerous locations into a Wendy's. We believe design creates a competitive advantage, like you've seen with our image activation program and the evolution of our new restaurant designs in recent years. We have enhanced our offerings to include smaller, more efficient prototypes that improve returns and allow us to solve for any potential growth opportunity. This same creativity and flexibility led us to launch a new drive-thru-only design and a new traditional freestanding solution that better enables our growing digital and delivery business. Innovation has continued, with the opening of numerous star kitchens globally. All these efforts have helped us increase our non-traditional pipeline to about 30% of our 2021 development plan. The solid development foundation that we have built is setting us up for substantial unit growth in 2021, as we are expecting to open about 250 new restaurants, which is an increase of 65% and are projecting to have about 7,000 restaurants globally by the end of 2021. We also recently announced a new incentive program that we expect to drive unit growth meaningfully. In fact, we believe it should accelerate our global unit growth in 2022 to more than 3%, and we also expect to have approximately 8,000 global Wendy's restaurants by the end of 2025. Our new incentives reward franchisees for new restaurant growth, accelerated timing and making multi-year commitments to grow their operations. Franchisees can also earn more incentive value by doing conversions, which we think is a huge opportunity for us, not only to grow new units, but to do so more quickly than a traditional new build. Turning now to international, where we plan to leverage the global development strategies that I've just outlined to significantly expand our footprint. Our leading markets, which represent about 80% of our same-restaurant sales, finished with a positive same-restaurant sales in 2020 on the strength of their drive-thrus and the fact that our digital business has doubled to approximately 10% internationally. We also finished the year with positive net unit growth, which showcases the belief that our franchisees have in the brand. We are very pleased with how we have navigated COVID in our international business, where restaurants weren't deemed to be an essential business in many markets. We are confident this momentum will continue into 2021, where we are expecting outsized growth. At our Investor Day in late 2019, we had announced a target to grow net new units to 10% plus a year internationally, and we are expecting to return to that growth rate this year. In doing so, we expect to far surpass the 1,000 international restaurant mark by the end of 2021. We are already seeing strong growth in India and the Philippines, two markets where we have signed large development agreements over the last couple of years. We also expect our largest growth in over a decade in Canada, which is our largest international market. We continue to make great progress towards our plan to expand into Europe and remain on track to begin opening restaurants in the U.K. in the first half of 2021. We have built a top talent team on the ground, have multiple locations secured and are engaging with several potential franchise candidates to build out this market alongside us. International expansion remains critical to growing our Wendy's footprint. And we believe that we have the plans and the partners in place to make this happen. I'd like to close my remarks today, with the Wendy's vision as it is important to remember that our goal is to become the world's most thriving and beloved restaurant brand. Everything we do at Wendy's is focused on bringing our vision to life as we work to build an even stronger brand. We believe that we have the right plans in place to significantly accelerate growth in 2021, which are to build our breakfast daypart sales by 30%, to drive our digital business to 10% of sales and to expand our footprint with 250 global new restaurant openings. We have emerged from 2020 as a more resilient, more unified Wendy's brand that is poised to deliver outsized growth. With that, I will hand things back over to GP to take us through our 2021 outlook.