Earnings Labs

The Wendy's Company (WEN)

Q3 2006 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 26, 2006

$6.84

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Wendy's International third quarter earnings results conference call. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Barker, Senior Vice President of Corporate Affairs and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

John Barker

Management

Thanks, Lisa. Good afternoon, everyone. The purpose of our call and our webcast today is to talk about our third quarter business results for Wendy's and give you an update on some of our key initiatives. We published the third quarter results earlier today, and you can find the news release, all the financial statements and information on our web site, which is wendys-invest.com. The agenda for today's call will begin with remarks from Wendy's Interim CEO and President, Kerrii Anderson. Kerrii is going to give you an update on the third quarter and some of our strategic initiatives. Then after that, Brendan Foley, our Senior Vice President and our Controller, will walk us through the financials for the quarter, and then we will take your questions. Looking ahead, I would like you to note that we do plan to release our fourth quarter sales on January 5, that's a Friday, and our fourth quarter earnings are set for February 2 of 2007. Due to the fact that we are in the middle of a Dutch Auction tender offer, we are also planning to release our October same-store sales, and that will be coming up on November 9. For future reference, all the dates are on our web site for future releases. As you may have seen in our news release today, the Board of Directors' search for a permanent CEO and President continues. Our Chairman, Jim Pickett, said that Kerrii continues to be a candidate for the permanent CEO position and that the Board continues to consider external candidates. The Company plans to issue a news release and other necessary disclosures at the appropriate time. Now, I'd like to refer you for just a moment to the Safe Harbor statement that is attached to this news release today. Certain information that we may discuss regarding future performance, such as our financial goals and plans and development, is forward-looking. Various factors could affect the Company's results and cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in our forward-looking statements. Some of those factors are set forth in the Safe Harbor statement that is attached to the earnings release. Some of our comments today may reference non-GAAP financial measures. In the event that we reference previously undisclosed non-GAAP information, we may post a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure on our web site. Now, let me turn it over to Kerrii.

Kerrii Anderson

Management

Well, thanks, John, and good afternoon, everybody. I want to let you know that I am here with the management team today. Ian and Dave are both with me. We of course spent a significant amount of time with you on the 12th talking extensively about our business plan for improved performance and our focus on Wendy's. So today, what I am going to do is cover an overview of our release today, and then we're going to have Brendan take you through some of the detailed analysis of our numbers. With that, we will then open it up for questions and answers. Ian, Dave and I as well as Brendan and others are certainly here to take any questions that you might have. So as we did discuss on October 12, our consolidated third quarter results are quite noisy and we've got discontinued operations, we've got charges and we've got an unusual item, as well as a report on continuing operations. Continuing operations consist of Wendy's and Cafe Express, as well as the discontinued operations include Tim Hortons and Baja Fresh. As all of you know, Tim Hortons was spun off on September 29, and we would expect Baja Fresh to be sold during the fourth quarter of this year. Therefore, they are being classified as discontinued operations as of the end of the third quarter. Most importantly, our focus is certainly on the third quarter financial results that we released earlier today. It shows that we are in fact strengthening the Wendy's core business performance. It is improving, and it starts at the top line of sales. Our sales did strengthen during the quarter and our marketing is gaining traction as we introduce new products and the key commodity costs continue to decline for us. As a result,…

Brendan Foley

Management

Thanks, Kerrii. I will start by reviewing the Wendy's operating segment, and then we will walk through the income statement line by line to discuss some of the more significant items that affected the quarter. As Kerrii mentioned, we reported income from continuing operations and income from discontinued operations during this quarter. Please refer to the financial statements that we issued with today's press release for our year-to-year comparisons to third quarter 2005. I will focus my comments on the results from continuing operations. The reported enterprise operating margin was 3.1%, compared to the prior year's margin of 7.2%. The decrease was primarily the result of a number of charges related to our previously announced strategic initiatives. Wendy's segment operating income was $26.5 million compared to $45.2 million last year. Our reported operating margins were 4.3% compared to 7.5% last year. These Wendy's segment operating margins are based on the fact that Tim Hortons and Baja Fresh are no longer included in our reportable operating segments because they are classified as discontinued operations. As a result, the majority of the amounts previously classified as corporate charges in our reportable operating segment is now included in the Wendy's segment. Although operating income in the Wendy's segment declined, the results included an improvement in the Wendy's company store operations and royalties of about $10 million, as Kerrii mentioned. These operating improvements were offset by the timing of management bonus accruals, which negatively impacted operating income by $7 million as we expect to pay partial bonuses commensurate with stronger second-half 2006 operating results relative to 2005. 2006 includes $5.5 million in store-closure charges in the third quarter, compared to about $4.7 million in gains on the sale of properties leased to franchisees in the third quarter of 2005. 2006 reflects lost rental income…

John Barker

Management

Thanks, Brendan. One last note before we open up the phone lines for your questions. From a dividend perspective, the Board approved the 115th consecutive quarterly dividend, which will be paid on November 20, and that will be to shareholders of record as of November 6. The quarterly payment will be $0.085 per share. When we adjust it for the value of the Tim Hortons dividend, which was $0.25 per share, times the spin-off distribution ratio, which was 1.35, our dividend rate is equivalent to what we were paying prior to the spin-off of Tim Hortons. As we announced at our October 12 analyst meeting, our Board will continue to review the dividend policy going forward. Because the record date for the dividend payment is before the expiration date of the dutch auction tender offer, shareholders of record on November 6 who tender their shares in the tender offer will be entitled to this dividend payment. We are now ready to begin the Q&A session. To allow everyone the opportunity to ask questions, we ask that you try to limit yourself to one question per caller. I also want to mention again that on the line with us here today is Ian Rowden. Many of you met Ian in New York, our Chief Marketing Officer. Also with us today is Dave Near, our Chief Operations Officer. Both of them look forward to your questions. Operator, we'd now like to begin queuing up for Q&A.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Jeffrey Bernstein - Lehman Brothers.

Jeffrey Berstein - Lehman Brothers

Analyst

Thank you very much. I just had a couple of questions. You talked about the tender offer and share repurchase. First, I'm wondering if you could just talk about the method or the approach utilized to determine the tender offer price range? Secondly, what are your thoughts, should the shares rise above the upper end of that range by the mid-November deadline is that something that you would consider, increasing that range? I'm just wondering on the broad thoughts and how the range was determined and the ability to take that higher.

Kerrii Anderson

Management

Jeffrey, it's Kerrii. First of all, the approach that we took in our pricing the dutch tender auction was to certainly consult with our investment bankers, both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. I think we also spent quite a bit of time with our finance advisory committee along with our Board of Directors to really discuss the pricing of the offer. Given the advice of our experts and our outlook that we have shared now with The Street, we felt that was a reasonable range and indicative of the value. From our perspective, our focus here is the fact that we have a lot of cash on our balance sheet and we wanted to most effectively return that to shareholders in the best way. So therefore, we've got the $800 million out there. It is currently our plan for it to expire on November 16.

Jeffrey Berstein - Lehman Brothers

Analyst

Actually, as a follow-up question more on the operations front, can you just talk in a little bit more detail on the very favorable food and labor cost you experienced in the burger business? Do you expect those favorable trends to continue at the same rate for the rest of this year and into '07? How low would you ultimately expect each of those could fall as a percentage of retail sales?

Kerrii Anderson

Management

I will start and then Dave will take it over. I think we had said, as a management team, we absolutely have to continue to drive improved profitability and margins in our business. While we had a good experience both in food and labor, we had a little bit of offset, so that we had about 100 basis points improvement net. So we have to continue to drive performance. It starts with sales at the top level. We of course have indicated that beef is going to be down in the fourth quarter about 4% compared to where it was a year ago, so I think we have commodities in our favor at this point. But we have to continue to drive operations improvement also. So with that, I will turn it over to you, Dave.

Dave Near

Analyst

Yes, I think that's exactly right, Kerrii. I think sales is the big factor there. We've got to get that going in the right direction. I think we would expect to see continued improvement on the food and labor side, compared to last year. I think with our menu management that we've got in place now, some of the products that we will be rolling in November and December, I think food should come in line. Again on the labor side, when we hit our sales projections, that should help leverage the labor percent as well.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from John Glass - CIBC.

John Glass - CIBC World Markets

Analyst

I'm just trying to reconcile the $26.5 million segment income that you referenced with this $10 million improvement year-over-year. Firstly, how much corporate expenses are now allocated up into that line?

Brendan Foley

Management

Probably the best way to get to that number is take a look at the reported Wendy's operating segment from last year that we had reported for 2005 and compare it to what we have now. The difference would be those corporate charges. I don't have the exact number, but it is the significant majority of them, where those corporate charges are now in the Wendy's segment.

John Glass - CIBC World Markets

Analyst

Okay. Then how about the extraordinary charges that you listed, $11 million in the other line, and $3 million in G&A excluding the incentive comp? Are those all up in the segment income as well?

Brendan Foley

Management

Yes, they are.

John Glass - CIBC World Markets

Analyst

Then since you started to talk a little bit about restaurant margins, at least food and labor, can you talk about what restaurant-level margins are at Wendy's now and maybe what your goal is for restaurant-level margins specifically?

Dave Near

Analyst

I think the Company discontinued giving that out a little while ago. I don't think we disclose that these days. It's something we could take a look at going forward but it's not something we give out right now.

Kerrii Anderson

Management

We have talked about, Dave, you disclosed I think we are trying to continue to get another 200 to 300 basis points over the next two to three years.

Dave Near

Analyst

That's exactly right.

Kerrii Anderson

Management

You can see the impact of sales, John, as you well know. When we draw top line sales as we did this quarter, 4.1%, and with food cost commodities positive for us, I mean, we had a 100 basis point improvement in one quarter, so the key is sales.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Glen Petraglia - Citigroup.

Glen Petraglia - Citigroup

Analyst

Good afternoon. I was hoping, first, that you could maybe share what your outlook at this point is for beef costs in 2007? And then if you could give us a status as to where you are in terms of searching presumably for a buyer for Cafe Express, I would appreciate it.

Kerrii Anderson

Management

Yes, Glen. As we look out for 2007 beef costs, we think overall we will have favorable pricing on beef, compared to '06. I think on average for the entire year we are expecting '06 to be down from '05 about 8% to 10% I think is the overall number in '06 compared to '05. We are expecting to drive that down further in '07, probably in the 3% to 5% range. You know, it certainly will fluctuate by quarter, as it always does with some seasonality. But we should be going into next year with a very positive outlook for beef. The second question you asked us was Cafe. I will be candid and just tell you that we continue to seek strategic alternatives for Cafe but we don't have any further announcements today.

Glen Petraglia - Citigroup

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Mark Rohaus -Morgan Stanley. Mark Rohaus -Morgan Stanley : My question is on the breakfast. It seems like that could be a major swing factor to the operating earnings story you've mapped out. You've talked about $75 million to $95 million that could come from breakfast. Is that with breakfast at full speed, or is that including a ramp-up phase? At what point do you think you'll be making a decision on actually starting the breakfast?

Kerrii Anderson

Management

Yes, from $75 million to $95 million, it is absolutely full-speed. You are in full launch nationally, and you've got all the bugs worked out from that perspective. I think it is a tremendous opportunity for us. As far as a decision point, what we said in New York and we continue to say is that we have a number of decision points through '07, really by quarter, as to the progress we're making and the results we see in test. At this point, we have not made a definite decision. I don't know, Ian, if there's something you would like to maybe add?

Ian Rowden

Analyst

No. It's just what we reiterated in New York, which is we are on track with our testing. We will report back on our testing to our franchise community. We will take it one step at a time in the process as we said we would as we go through the next 12 months or so. Mark Rohaus -Morgan Stanley : If all goes well, how would the $75 million to $95 million number look like in that first year of transition?

Kerrii Anderson

Management

Yes, the one thing we said is the $75 million to $95 million does not include an initial $30 million advertising investment that the Company is committed to if and when a decision would be made to go forward with breakfast. So that very first launch year, that $75 million to $95 million would be reduced by $30 million. After that, it's a run-rate.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Adrian Young - Credit Suisse.

Adrian Young - CSFB

Analyst

Hi, Kerrii. Congratulations, first of all, great quarter. I'm trying to get at a lease-adjusted leverage and coverage ratio. Can you confirm for me last quarter's stand-alone rent expense? Also, I'm looking for other off balance sheet items that maybe should be factored in, the guarantees and what not.

Brendan Foley

Management

I'm certain we don't have that right here with us, but Dave and I, if you are okay with that, would follow up with you offline.

Adrian Young - CSFB

Analyst

Sure.

Dave Near

Analyst

I might refer you to the 10-K. It will probably give you some pretty good information in the release footnote. We break that out between segments historically, so. Also in the footnotes, we disclose commitments, the contingencies as we are required to do. So you might want to check there.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Joe Buckley - Bear Stearns.

Joe Buckley - Bear Stearns

Analyst

Dave Near

Analyst

I'm sorry, the question was--?

Kerrii Anderson

Management

Is it in G&A?

Dave Near

Analyst

Is it in G&A? Yes.

Joe Buckley - Bear Stearns

Analyst

It is in G&A?

Kerrii Anderson

Management

It is in G&A. It's not operating losses. You certainly have some start-up, Joe, when you begin to roll breakfast out. But this is primarily in the R&D area.

Ian Rowden

Analyst

That's correct.

Joe Buckley - Bear Stearns

Analyst

Going from $1 million to $3 million, does it signify a broadening of the test or just more products being tested at the corporate level?

Ian Rowden

Analyst

Actually, it's an indication of both, Joe. We are broadening the test, as you know, as we expanded to full tests in some markets, and we're still working and developing additional breakfast items as part of the menu.

Dave Near

Analyst

We are going to additional stores, Joe. Additional markets.

Joe Buckley - Bear Stearns

Analyst

All right. A question on the beef costs. If they are down 3% to 5% in '07, what kind of impact would that have on your overall food cost margin?

Kerrii Anderson

Management

What we've talked about before is a $0.10 decrease per pound is about, from a store operating perspective, 50 basis points in margin, Joe.

Joe Buckley - Bear Stearns

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. Then lastly, with the headcount reductions at the corporate level, have there been any areas that you've noticed significant strain in the organization as a result of all the streamlining?

Kerrii Anderson

Management

I'm sorry, Joe. We kind of got an interruption on the call. Have we noticed significant what?

Joe Buckley - Bear Stearns

Analyst

From all the headcount reductions that have been implemented are there parts of the organization that are feeling strained from the streamlining?

Kerrii Anderson

Management

Everybody here looks well-rested. Seriously, there's no question, Joe, that, given headcount reductions, the majority of the headcount departed corporate at the end of September, first of October, really. There are a few less, just maybe 30 to 40 people that will actually depart in December. So from that perspective, there's no question, given all the activity that's going on, working on sales, the discontinued ops, the spin of Tim's, all of that has been taking place at a rapid pace. What affects us most is to see that positive same-store sales number. So from that perspective, that's what we are all focused on, is the future of Wendy's, and really being able to get through some of these initiatives to allow us to get to the real target.

Joe Buckley - Bear Stearns

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Martha Shelton - Jefferies & Company. Martha Shelton - Jefferies & Co.: A quick question for you. Insofar as beef is a percentage of cost of goods sold, do you all give that figure out?

Kerrii Anderson

Management

Generally, Martha, we have not. You know, certainly, because of our product mix, we talked about hamburger being about a third of our product mix historically. You can kind of get an idea from that perspective. That has a pretty significant impact on us. Martha Shelton - Jefferies & Co.: Insofar as your contract situation for beef, for ground beef, is that something that you all talk about?

Kerrii Anderson

Management

Yes, Martha, from that perspective, we've talked a lot about it. The way our pricing for beef works, and this is consistent with the way it has been for the last couple of years, is we actually get quarterly pricing because we use fresh ground beef. We can't hedge or lock in long-term contracts, but we do get pricing that is generally a quarter lag for us. In other words, the pricing we had in the fourth quarter will be dependent upon a formula that is determined by the market in the third quarter. So, that's most of the information I think we'd normally share with you on a contract perspective. Martha Shelton - Jefferies & Co.: Got it. Then, are they are several suppliers or is it just one or two that you're looking towards?

Kerrii Anderson

Management

Yes, we try to provide a choice of suppliers, three or four or five key suppliers, just because you want to make sure you keep people competitive. There are certain plants that are located in areas that make more sense to utilize from a freight perspective. Martha Shelton - Jefferies & Co.: Got it. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Rachael Rothman - Merrill Lynch.

Rachael Rothman - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Can you give us an update on what the appetite has been for the remodels once you guys launch the franchisee incentive program?

Dave Near

Analyst

Rachel, this is Dave. We haven't launched it yet; we've targeted a November 1 date to come out to introduce it and come out with the specifics and details regarding it. But we've had a lot of excitement in the franchise community in regard to it. I think they are anxiously awaiting what the standards and what the details are around that.

Kerrii Anderson

Management

Right, and we will be sharing that detail with our franchisees on November 1. They will have a clear understanding of what they need to do to qualify for getting a $25,000 remodel incentive.

Rachael Rothman - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Could you give some sense for how many units you would target annually?

Dave Near

Analyst

I don't think we have a target at this point. I mean, I think we will just have to wait and see and see what the reaction is to the incentive. But I don't think, at this time, we can give you an estimate as to what that would be.

Rachael Rothman - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Then on the $100 million in savings in G&A, I know there are a bunch of moving parts. Can you kind of give us an update? Is that still $100 million? Is that still appropriate, or is a portion of that going to go away because of Baja Fresh and a portion of it maybe goes away because of higher bonus payments or is that what we should be looking for?

Kerrii Anderson

Management

I will let Brendan walk you through that because I know you might have come in late on the call but he actually did kind of walk us through that. I don't know, Brendan.

Brendan Foley

Management

It was announced at the analyst meeting, there's about $20 million of that that relates to developing brands. Then I don't know if you were part of the call but offsetting that a little bit are some inflationary increases that are going to happen from 2005-2007 as we walked through that reconciliation. Again, the $100 million is based off of the 2006 budget that the Company has.

Rachael Rothman - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. The bonuses are already factored into that? The higher bonus level?

Brendan Foley

Management

Yes. Again, those are savings off of the 2006 budget.

Rachael Rothman - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Kerrii Anderson

Management

Thanks, Rachel, and hopefully the reconciliation was helpful. I know it was important to try to get some clarity to that and we appreciate your inquiry.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from David Palmer - UBS.

David Palmer - UBS

Analyst

Thanks for that reconciliation between '05 and '07. That explanation which of course compares your profitability against yourselves two years ago, it definitely seems to make sense that you're not egregiously lowballing here. But I'm taking a step back again and I'm thinking, even if I bridge up to a pretty good margin increase in your company stores, you're operating margin is still going to something like a 7% margin in '07 on EBIT. That looks still well below peers. I'm wondering if you've thought about it that way, even after making some significant progress halfway, two-thirds of the way there and you're still 400, 500, 600 basis points behind peers when you're having pretty good sales per unit. Have you thought about it in that respect?

Kerrii Anderson

Management

I think, David, there's no question we have opportunity to improve. What we are fighting here is a situation which for two years we've had negative transactions and negative sales and increased commodity costs. So while our peers, God bless McDonald's, have been putting up 9s and 7s and 10s, we were negative. So from that perspective, you're exactly right; we have a lot of work to do and a lot of opportunity, and we have to continue to do it in all of the areas. When we talk about sales, we have to have new products; we've got to have better menu management; we've got to bring out products at lower food costs to help our food costs get down. I mean, all of the things we chatted about continue to bode well for the opportunities for us to improve the results.

Dave Near

Analyst

Yes. Just to tag on that, David, I think as we've talked about, we still feel like when we first announced the 500 basis points that we were going after, we are still, like you said, we are about halfway there. Once we can get another 250 or 300, we will then evaluate where we are at and continue to make improvements to see if we can go further.

David Palmer - UBS

Analyst

Thanks. I would second John Glass' motion for company restaurant margin disclosure. That would be fantastic. Thanks very much.

Kerrii Anderson

Management

We would have to acknowledge that we are evolving as a brand, you know, in the sense that we are now Wendy's and we don't have Tim's and we don't have some of these other things, so we will continue to review what is best disclosure for everybody.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Andrew Barish - Banc of America Securities.

Andrew Barish - Banc of America Securities

Analyst

It's good to be talking about the business again. A couple of quick questions on that front for Dave and Ian. If you can sort of address what you think the best opportunities or the area you're going after most, first from ops? Secondly on the marketing, it looks like some of the language and things you're talking about is moving the marketing much younger to the kind of core male heavy fast-food user. Does that risk alienating some of the broad audience you've historically attracted at Wendy's? Ian, if you can touch on that front.

Dave Near

Analyst

You know, Andrew, I think the big thing from an operations perspective is what we are focused on right now is really returning our focus as an organization back to the customer, which we really haven't been focused on as much as we've needed to be over the past couple of years. There are several things we're working on. The first thing is we're really going back and trying to motivate and inspire our folks to get back in front of the customer and run the stores the right way. We are looking at operational efficiencies, everything from how we operate our stores from a systems perspective, how our managers manage the stores. We're looking at the store reinvestment piece obviously, which I think is very important as we move forward. We are continuing to look at service times and accuracy and courtesy and all those programs that we were very dominant in, in the late '90s and turn of the century. We need to get back and really get focused on the basics again to make sure we're driving the things that we need to, to improve the business.

Kerrii Anderson

Management

I might just add to Dave's point on operations. I mean, the inspection services which we have said help us really calibrate where our restaurants are operating -- I think Dave, you said you've already done 260 or 270 at this point in time, of these inspections.

Dave Near

Analyst

We have. You know, we hired 31 QSC managers that will do one SOE and SFE in all company stores and franchised stores in 2007. We have done a little over 260 audits so far this year, and it's really helping us recalibrate where we are from an operational perspective, which is the first thing that we need to do to level-set as to where we truly are and then we can start to make progress going forward. But that so far has been very well received in our company and franchise stores, and I think we'll start to see some real improvement from an operational perspective as a result of that.

Kerrii Anderson

Management

Ian, you might comment on the marketing.

Ian Rowden

Analyst

We have been, for the last year or so and will continue to restage our brand with a younger consumer target. We've been very, I think, transparent in our conversations on that and the need for that. We know and we've communicated that we lost transactions with that audience in recent years, and a part of our strategy is to restage ourselves with greater currency and greater relevance so that we can bring transactions amongst that consumer group back into our business. As Kerrii said, in the third quarter results, you can see our transaction growth that we've had, and we are seeing the merits of the shift we're making begin to pay off for us as we do restage ourselves. But I will tell you we're doing that in a manner that isn't designed to alienate us from the broader consumer group. And in fact, our menu-management process and the way we've outlined our strategy, thinking about focusing on our core hamburger business and the core Gen N target by ensuring that we have a product portfolio and a menu-management process that has a broader menu set, that is built out of the quality and freshness that makes our brand unique and different is key to what is driving Dave and I as we look at the business going forward. So our intention is to continue to focus, to make sure that we restage ourselves but that we do that in a way that continues to provide choice and variety across a broad range of quality products to a broad consumer group.

Andrew Barish - Banc of America Securities

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Larry Miller - RBC.

Larry Miller - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

It sounded like your response to an earlier question about recapturing or closing the gap on the margins between you and your peers, there might have been a structural difference. Aside from the 1%, it looks like you're going to give away in franchise incentives. Is that correct? I mean, is it an issue of real estate ownership or something like that, or can you really narrow that gap over time?

Kerrii Anderson

Management

I think we absolutely can narrow the gap over time. I mean, one of the things we talked about earlier here today was breakfast. Our average unit volumes compared to at least McDonald's, we are significantly less. They are at 1.9 million; we are 1.350 million. There's a lot of margin that comes to the bottom line when you grow top line sales. Along with that is we're not in the breakfast business and we know it is the lowest food cost. So again, you know, if you can position yourself to be successful in that business, you are lowering your food cost while you're growing your top line and leveraging that building. So I think it's a significant improvement. So there are some real differences today from us and our competitors. I think we're really about the only one in QSR that's not in the breakfast industry, you know, or in that day part. We talked about the fact that it's a $30 billion business and it's 15% of QSR revenues, and we're not there. So I think we can continue to leverage what we have and improve as well as our new menu-management. We've not been so good about taking things off the menu when they weren't working. So I don't know if, Dave, you or Ian want to comment on that.

Dave Near

Analyst

From a menu-management perspective, and I think we've talked a lot about how we need to get a lot more involved in the drinks and desserts segment, which we're working on as we speak, and I think that will start to make a big difference from a margin perspective as we continue to develop and evolve our menu.

Larry Miller - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

The beverages was in the guidance though, I believe, isn't that correct?

Kerrii Anderson

Management

Right. I mean, we gave overall same-store sales guidance of 3% to 4% if we can continue to drive beverages. I think we all have upside. We want to be reasonable but conservative.

Larry Miller - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

Yes, I was just trying to reconcile what Brendan was saying, which again I appreciate the reconciliation with the fact that you guys are significantly below your peer group and maybe it is just understated. I just don't understand that, that's all. Thanks.

Kerrii Anderson

Management

Some of it, to your point, actually, Larry, might be some people do hold their real estate. Certainly McDonald's does and leases it to their franchisees, and as they improve sales, they therefore improve rent royalty. So that is not a model we've of course followed. We also recognize that, to some degree, we are more heavily company-store operated. That's one of the things that we are focusing on getting down, because sometimes franchisees can actually run stores more efficiently and effectively than we can. So those are all elements I think that drive upside for us.

Larry Miller - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

Yes, that might be the difference between you guys and Sonic, who have a higher margin and a lower volume.

Kerrii Anderson

Management

You've got it.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Glen Petraglia - Citigroup.

Glen Petraglia - Citigroup

Analyst

Actually, I have no further questions. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Steven Kron - Goldman Sachs.

Steven Kron - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Thanks. I actually just had a couple. I wanted to follow up on the last topic of product innovation. Ian, at the analyst day a few weeks ago, you talked about new product innovation process and using outside consultants to take a look at that. I think you made the comment that you have more product in the pipeline than you have testing capabilities for. But recognizing you went through a period not too long ago with some innovation or lack of new product news, I guess as we look out to '07, do you guys have a targeted platform launch goal or targeted new product introduction goal? How are you going to ensure that you have the new product news necessary to maintain those comps? Just on a related topic, more in the near term, just the language in your press release talking about positive same-store sales in the fourth quarter but recognizing that you are lapping some more difficult things, giving that we are most of the way through October, is there any subtle message you're trying to send there? Have you seen comps soften in October? Thanks.

Kerrii Anderson

Management

I will just address the comp issue real quick. As you might guess, Steven, we're not going to give guidance or give any kind of indication on October sales at this point. What I think we're trying to bring to everyone's attention is the fact that, if you look at our monthly comps last year in the month in the fourth quarter, we came off of the third quarter being like negative 5 got basically, and then in October we experienced negative 2.1 last year, and I think for November negative 2.4. So all we're trying to acknowledge there is that the comps were going up again. While they are negative, they actually were the strongest negatives we had last year. So that's just what we're trying to acknowledge, that's all. We will of course share with you same-store sales in around November 8 or 9.

Ian Rowden

Analyst

Steven, just to answer your question on the product pipeline, you're absolutely right. We talked about how we had, for a number of years, not had sufficient new product innovation in our pipeline, that we fell behind. It was another one of the reasons why our brand fell out of step with consumers in some regards. We have a process in place. I talked to you about that, that some folks helped design an innovation process with us which we are deep into the process of implementing and generating new products from. This year, we will have introduced, I think, somewhere around 13 to 16 new product ideas to our business. We see that number abating for the obvious reasons, but we know that new product innovation is important to driving new news and traffic in our business. So I see a range of six to eight products a year going forward. We may do a little more than that next year, but we see a range like that that's sustainable and replicable and that the process will generate the news for us that we expect will support the direction and the strategy we have in place and the results accordingly.

Steven Kron - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Great, thanks.

John Barker

Management

We will take one more question and then wrap up the call for today.

Operator

Operator

That was the last question, sir.

John Barker

Management

We thank you all for listening in on the conference today and webcast. If you have follow-up questions, please reach out to myself or Dave Poplar. Thanks.

Kerrii Anderson

Management

Thank you so much.

Dave Near

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.