Gale E. Klappa
Analyst · Glenrock Associates.
Well, very good question. And I think, as you know, this is a question that is really beginning to be asked all over the industry. The first thing I would say is lots of companies will give you earnings growth projections and then when you dig deeper and say, well, what's behind that in terms of sales growth, 1%, 2% or 3%, we have never based our earnings growth projections on what we think are anything but appropriately conservative and rational sales ACs, but input from our customers. So let me take it segment by segment because I think there's a different story to answer your question in each one of the 3 segments. First, the large industrial, strictly tied to the economy. We -- if you normalize our 2012 numbers, I think we were up 1.1% in industrial, nothing to write home about but -- I mean just intuitively to me, given what we're seeing in the economy in Wisconsin, that felt about right. Commercial, we are up weather-normalized. It seems to me like we're seeing modest but continuing, predictable growth in the commercial segment of our customer group. The real puzzling one is residential. And there, I have a theory and I could be wrong. But it does not make a lot of sense to me when I see our weather-normalized residential sales. And I was talking with Scott Lauber the other day and he was saying, we had to weather-normalize 4% of our sales, closer to 5% of our sales, just because of the abnormal weather in 2011 and 2012. That's a huge number of megawatt hours. And we were 4, 5 standard -- well, 3 or 4 standard deviations away from norm in terms of the weather over the last couple of years. So my view is that we really need another year to update on residential before we really understand what's happening in terms of residential customer demand. I just am not seeing, and I don't think any of us are seeing, a major change in lifestyle in terms of our residential customers. We are seeing a change in the appliances and tools that are available to our customers to live their lifestyles. They're getting more efficient support from appliances, from TVs and everything else. But I still think our residential growth is underlying stronger than the numbers are showing because at this kind of deviation from norm, the weather normalization techniques just are not that accurate. So we really -- we're cautious. We're not going to promise you sales growth that we can't deliver. And I think the key going forward, if we don't see a rebound in growth, particularly in residential, the key going forward is going to be cost discipline. We have to continue to drive cost and productivity in our business. I hope that helps, Paul.