Earnings Labs

Walker & Dunlop, Inc. (WD)

Q3 2021 Earnings Call· Sat, Nov 6, 2021

$51.31

+1.18%

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Transcript

Kelsey Duffey

Operator

Good morning, everyone. I'm Kelsey Duffey, Vice President of Investor Relations at Walker & Dunlop, and I'd like to welcome you to Walker & Dunlop's Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. Hosting the call today is Willy Walker, Walker & Dunlop Chairman and CEO. He is joined by Steve Theobald, Chief Financial Officer. Today's webcast is being recorded and a replay will be available via webcast on the Investor Relations section of our website. [Operator Instructions]. This morning, we posted our earnings release and presentation to the Investor Relations section of our website, www.walkerdunlop.com. These slides serve as a reference point for some of what Willy and Steve will touch on during the call. Please also note that we will reference the non-GAAP financial metric adjusted EBITDA during the course of this call. Please refer to the earnings release posted on our website for a reconciliation of this non-GAAP financial metric. Investors are urged to carefully read the forward-looking statements language in our earnings release. Statements made on this call, which are not historical facts, may be deemed forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements describe our current expectations, and actual results may differ materially. Walker & Dunlop is under no obligation to update or alter our forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise and we expressly disclaim any obligation to do so. More detailed information about risk factors can be found in our annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC. I will now turn the call over to Willy.

William Walker

Analyst

Thank you, Kelsey, and Good morning, everyone. Walker & Dunlop's ongoing investments in people, brand and technology have fundamentally changed our competitive positioning in the commercial real estate industry. Our third quarter performance reflects the continued diversification of Walker & Dunlop's services and capabilities that is strengthening our business and our financial results. For the second consecutive quarter, we closed record debt brokerage and property sales volumes, and in Q3, unlike in Q2, we had very strong financing volumes with the GSEs, the combination of which boosted our Q3 total transaction volumes to a record $18.5 billion, up 120% from the third quarter of 2020. $5.9 billion with the GSEs in Q3 was more volume in one quarter than we originated during the first 6 months of the year. As you can see on this slide, the 120% increase in transaction volume lifted total revenues by 40% year-over-year to $346 million and generated diluted earnings per share of $2.21, up 33% from the third quarter of last year. The continued strength in the cash-generating components of our business drove record adjusted EBITDA of $72.4 million, up 60% from $45.2 million in Q3 of 2020. While our growth year-over-year is great, our sequential growth from Q2 of this year is also fantastic, with revenue growth of 23%, diluted earnings per share growth of 29% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 9% over last quarter. And we delivered all of this terrific growth while announcing the acquisition of Alliant Capital, the largest acquisition in our history and continuing to invest in people, brand and technology to achieve our long-term strategic growth plan and titled the Drive to '25. The core objective of the Drive to '25 is to double our revenues from $1 billion to $2 billion in 5 years by growing every…

Stephen Theobald

Analyst

Thank you, Willy, and good morning, everyone. Our third quarter financial results further demonstrate the diversification of our platform and our team's ability to successfully meet our clients' needs with our broad capabilities and differentiated people, brand and technology strategies. Investor appetite for commercial real estate assets, particularly multifamily, continues unabated, and our team executed extremely well within a strong market environment to deliver third quarter total transaction volume of $18.5 billion, up 120% from Q3 of '20. In the third quarter, not only did we close record debt brokerage and property sales volumes, but we also saw Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac return to the market in a big way, which enabled us to provide our multifamily clients with attractive GSE financing options and originate nearly $6 billion of GSE loans. As shown on Slide 6, year-to-date transaction volume of $41 billion is up 53% over the same period last year, reflecting our ability to leverage WD's strong brand, broad capital solutions and innovative data analytic tools to attract new clients and grow volumes amidst the backdrop of the strong market recovery we have seen throughout 2021. We generated near record total revenues of $346 million in Q3, bringing total revenues to $852 million for the first 3 quarters of the year, an increase of 16% over the first 3 quarters of 2020. Origination fees, property sales brokerage fees and cash servicing fees were $228 million in the quarter, an increase of 51% over Q3 of last year, driven by the strong growth in transaction volumes and the significant amount of mortgage servicing rights we recorded in 2020 that are now translating into cash servicing fees. As you can see on this slide, the servicing portfolio continues to grow, ending the third quarter at $114 billion and with a…

William Walker

Analyst

Thank you, Steve. I think it's appropriate to look at W&D's growth and development as a public company in 3 phases: gaining scale from 2010 to 2015, diversifying from 2015 to 2020, and going digital from 2020 to 2025. We went public in 2010 as a small family-owned mortgage finance company. The success of our business rested on leveraging our partnerships with Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and HUD to gain scale in the multifamily lending arena. As you can see on this slide, during that period of scaling the platform from 2010 to 2015, we grew revenues from $122 million to $468 million, EBITDA to $124 million and gained the scale and financial success to begin diversifying. In 2015, we began investing heavily in our debt brokerage platform by acquiring small brokerage firms and hiring brokerage talent across the country. We also entered the multifamily property sales business with the acquisition of Engler Financial. As you can see here, the results of the diversification stage were incredible, more than doubling revenues from $468 million to $1.1 billion and driving EBITDA up to $216 million. So having successfully scaled and diversified our business, we now enter the digital era. The financial drivers of the digital era are spelled out in our Drive to '25 business plan and include taking revenues up to $2 billion and EBITDA to over $500 million. But what exactly does digital mean in the commercial real estate finance and services industry? We had 203 bankers and brokers at Walker & Dunlop in Q3 of 2020 and increased that number by less than 10% to 222 today, yet due to the market recovery and use of technology, total transaction volume grew by over 100% from $8 billion in Q3 of last year to $18 billion in Q3 of…

A - Kelsey Duffey

Analyst

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question is coming from Henry Coffey of Wedbush Securities.

Henry Coffey

Analyst

I guess I don't quite know where to begin since so many things seem to be working in the right direction. But when you look at the Alliant transaction and you look at the competitive marketplace there, how many of your "large players" in that space bring to the table both the ability to do tax-related investing and origination? How common is that to have that combination?

William Walker

Analyst

There are a couple of people in the market, Henry, who do that, but we have a lot of confidence that the combination of Alliant and W&D will make our proposition or offering into the market extremely compelling. And if you look at the list of just the tax indicators, I think if I showed it to you, you probably would identify all 10 names on it. But if I showed it to the average person walking down the street, they might know 2. And so it's a very fragmented market. It does not have large players in it. And as we have successfully done in the multifamily loan space and lending space -- we already have that league table, Henry, kind of, if you will, stuck to the wall. And as we have done very successfully in other businesses, we look at the league tables, we look at our market share and we start to march it up. And so Alliant as the sixth largest tax credit syndicator in the country has a whopping 3% market share of total syndications. So the ability for us to go from 3% to 6% to 9% and do in that space what we've done in the multifamily lending space is exactly what we plan to do.

Henry Coffey

Analyst

So it's fair to say that there are other teams out there that might work their way to WD as happened in the multifamily loan business?

William Walker

Analyst

Just one quick thing on that, Henry, which I would just add is that if you look at the explosive growth in our investment sales business, that is all due to the team that we have built over the last 5 years and going out and getting the very best people. We have very clearly hit a tipping point there, where the very best multifamily investment sales brokers in the country are joining Walker & Dunlop's platform because they see it as the very best in the country. It took a long time to build up that reputation. And obviously, we hope we will have the similar type of success in this line of business.

Henry Coffey

Analyst

And then as -- you're looking at the brokered business. How much of the activity was outside of the core multifamily segment and how much of it was just multifamily?

William Walker

Analyst

That's a good question. Steve, do you have the percentage breakout of multi versus non-multi in capital markets?

Stephen Theobald

Analyst

Yes, I don't have that in front of me, Willy, but anecdotally, this was a very strong quarter for multifamily. And Henry, historically, we've been -- 80% to 85% of our debt financing volume is multi, and I think that this quarter is within that range.

Henry Coffey

Analyst

We follow the residential market, of course, as do many of my colleagues. That market has its own cyclical characteristics. It sounds like from just looking at the forecast that '22 was another up year. Is -- what is -- what in your mind is driving that? And how does that impact your outlook for 2022?

William Walker

Analyst

So I think one of the interesting things, Henry -- you probably watch CoStar. And what I found to be very interesting about CoStar's quarter was that -- look, their core data business continues to chug along and they obviously dominate the commercial real estate data space. But where they showed weakness was in Apartments.com. And the reason they showed weakness in Apartments.com is because all the apartment buildings in the United States are full. And so owners of those buildings don't need to advertise on Apartments.com and that then led Costar to bring down their Q4 expectations on Apartments.com. I think that is emblematic of -- all you have to do is to look at the multifamily REITs and their Q3 rent increases, in many instances 11%, 12%, 13% quarter-over-quarter. The fundamentals of the multifamily market are extremely strong right now. There is supply that is going to be coming online over the next 12 months. But right now, the dynamics of it are is that there are far more renters looking for a place to live than there are available apartments. That is driving rents up. That is driving Apartments.com listings down. And it is setting up for a very active 2022 as it relates to aggregate origination volumes. As Steve mentioned, there's quite a difference between what the Mortgage Bankers Association and Freddie Mac's most recent projection for the 2022 multifamily financing market. But first of all, anything over $400 billion is a huge market. But adding another $30 billion on the top of the MBA estimate, which is what Freddie did last week, just shows the growth and opportunity there. And I would say it's very important to remember that for Walker & Dunlop's extremely strong positioning with Fannie and Freddie and HUD -- as we all know, Q1 and Q2 of this year, Fannie and Freddie were not nearly as significant players in the market as other sources of capital. And as everyone saw in Walker & Dunlop's financials, we were able to take that other capital and put it to work in the multifamily industry. And so while we have a great scorecard for Fannie and Freddie for 2022, we also have an incredible team across the country that has access to lots of other capital that will fill that gap between what Fannie, Freddie and HUD can do and what the market is going to demand in 2022.

Kelsey Duffey

Operator

The next question will be coming from Jade Rahmani of KBW.

Jade Rahmani

Analyst

Curious about your thoughts on what's driving cap rate compression in the multifamily space.

William Walker

Analyst

Capital. Just straight up capital, Jade. It's not -- as Peter Linneman has said many times on both the Walker Webcast as well as in his published work -- he's done decades of research that say that everyone thinks that cap rates are tied to interest rates. They're not. They're tied to capital flows. And right now, what we are seeing in the multifamily market is an unprecedented amount of capital flows. There is a huge amount of equity capital trying to get deployed into multifamily right now, and we're seeing buyer after buyer take down very large acquisitions, all cash. We're right now in -- we've just awarded a deal here in Denver. It's a 300 -- it's going to sell for $315 million, $320 million, and it's going to go down all cash. And so there is a huge amount of cash in the market, a huge amount of equity capital. And that is what's driving cap rates.

Jade Rahmani

Analyst

And do you think that for 2022 the outlook for growth in transaction volumes overall is still robust? You expect growth over 2021 for the market?

William Walker

Analyst

There is nothing that we are seeing that says that we would not see growth in 2022 over 2021 given the dynamics of the market right now.

Jade Rahmani

Analyst

Just on the inflation and labor constraints as well as supply chain, any impacts you're seeing on your business? Some thoughts that come to mind, is potential -- wage inflation, potential staffing constraints and also supply chain impacts that could impact deals you do with real estate developers or perhaps on the bridge lending side, those transitional capital improvement projects?

William Walker

Analyst

So I had a long debate with one of Walker & Dunlop's Board members yesterday at our Board meeting about inflation and my view that it's more transitory than permanent and his view that it is here and is staying for a long time. And I have to say after Chairman Powell did his press conference yesterday saying he reinstates his transitory position, I had a fun time showing that to my Board member, who still didn't believe it. Jade, look, you know more than I do as it relates to the fundamentals of the data and what the outlook is as it relates to inflationary pressures. We've been pretty consistent at saying that rates will stay relatively low for as far as we can see. And that is just due to a yield starved world where sovereign debt -- real sovereign debt yields are still negative around the globe and people view U.S. sovereign debt as a great place to be investing. And while we've obviously seen the 2-year move up significantly and the spread between the 2-year and the 10-year tighten over the past several weeks, we're still sitting in the mid-1.50s to 1.60% range on the 10-year. And as you know, from a historic standpoint, that's still incredibly cheap capital. And so I think we will continue to see a huge amount of transaction volume and I think we will continue to see commercial real estate as something of a safe haven for global capital. If you think about investing in multifamily -- you asked the question about cap rates. Yes, cap rates are low. But cap rates right now -- you can still buy a multifamily property. You can put positive leverage on that multifamily property and still carry that property and have the opportunity to have 2 things happen: one, push rents; and two, potentially sell it at a tighter cap rate than you bought it. And so those 2 variables are making commercial real estate in the United States, and most particularly multifamily, an exceedingly attractive market for global capital to invest, which that is driving those capital flows and that is driving cap rates down.

Jade Rahmani

Analyst

Okay. And then lastly, somewhat related, is just on the margin side. I've been impressed by -- with all the growth in the non GSE businesses, that margins have come in extremely strong. For example, we look at adjusted EBITDA margins came in at 28.2%, which would be industry-leading compared to commercial real estate brokers, and we were expecting 27%. Post the closing of Zelman and the pending Alliant deal, do you anticipate margins to remain relatively consistent? Do you think that there's potential operating leverage? How are you thinking about the margin outlook?

William Walker

Analyst

I'll turn this over to Steve in a second. I'll just give you some really quick thoughts on it. The first one is, I appreciate you pointing out the health of our margins, particularly versus the competitive set. I would reinforce the fact that we are only 1,200 people at Walker & Dunlop going head-to-head against companies that are many, many multiples the size of our platform. And one of the reasons why I think investors should have great confidence in W&D as it relates to maintaining both growth as well as profitability is that we start from a very small base and have the opportunity to invest in people and technology to grow our market share versus all of our big competitors that have lots of people. And as they implement technology, the outcome of that is, a, it's very challenging to get existing humans to change the way that they're doing what they're doing and to use the technology. And the other is, as efficiencies come, they will be challenged with having to lay off human capital. And so I feel that they're sitting there with lots of people and lots of brand and lower margins. We have fewer people. We're applying more technology and we have the opportunity to grow and take market share. So I'd much rather be sitting where we are than they are. And I think that our growth and margins will be reflective of that. Steve, you want to dive into that question a little bit deeper on your thoughts on overall maintaining of margins?

Stephen Theobald

Analyst

Yes. I would echo what Willy said and add to that. In the near term, Jade, I wouldn't expect a significant change from a margin standpoint. I think -- as you know, we're continuing to make investments in growing the business. Adding Alliant is, I think, actually a positive. It's a -- the tax credit syndication business is a relatively high EBITDA margin business. But to Willy's point, as we continue to make those investments in technology and drive efficiencies in the organization over time -- and I think this is laid out in our 5-year plan -- is I would expect margins to expand from here over the long run. But in the near term, I wouldn't expect much change.

Kelsey Duffey

Operator

Our next question comes from Steve Delaney of JMP.

Steven Delaney

Analyst

You hear me now?

William Walker

Analyst

Yes.

Steven Delaney

Analyst

That's fantastic. Congrats on a -- I'll extend my congrats to, as the others have, on a fantastic quarter. Willy, we've been seeing -- in the direct lenders earnings report everybody talks about an extremely healthy, vibrant market out there and CRE broadly, all property types, especially in multifamily. In your comments, you mentioned interim lending, and that's not an area that you've spoken about much in the last several quarters. So I'm just curious, when you look at that, are you seeing opportunities on a direct or joint venture basis? Or do you just see that as a brokered product that you're directing those bridge opportunities more to debt funds or other banks?

William Walker

Analyst

Sure, Steve. Great to have you on the call. So we mentioned it because it's grown dramatically from 2020 when we basically pulled back in that space almost completely just because of concerns about the credit markets during the pandemic. And so as I think you recall, we have a joint venture with Blackstone to do bridge loans in the multifamily space. That joint venture is doing a huge amount of business and has been a fantastic joint venture. I'm not a huge fan of joint ventures. And of all the joint ventures we've ever done, that one is a true success. And it's great to see the volume we're doing there. I think the other thing to keep in mind, Steve, is this. There are, as you know, a huge number of debt funds trying to do both interim as well as permanent financing in the multifamily space today. We have been exceedingly disciplined from a credit standpoint in that product, if you will, to not be doing 80% LTV loans that are 2-year floaters on new entrants to the multifamily borrowing market, if you will. And so the -- I just looked at the largest borrowers in our interim lending program and they are to a person -- our largest GSE borrowers. These are large institutional borrowers who need a bridge loan because they took down an asset and are waiting to raise the LP equity. There's some transitional reasoning on why they're going to take it down and stabilize it and then put permanent debt on it. But I won't go to actual names, but take my word for it, it's big institutions that are using that product from Walker & Dunlop. And so I feel really good that it's not what I would characterize as looking at some of our competitors going high leverage with sort of smaller operators, where I think you can run into some problems on bridge lending. These are established borrowers and lower leveraged deals that we're doing, and it has been a huge value proposition for our origination teams to be able to offer that product to their borrowers on, if you will, transitional transactions.

Steven Delaney

Analyst

Well, it's good to hear because it is somewhat of a frothy market. And while that raises -- that rising tide lifts all ships, I'm a little concerned that on the fringe we're going to see some problems as you suggest, Willy. So...

William Walker

Analyst

And the one quick thing I'd add there, Steve, is just this. Many of our competitors are CLO-ing all this paper. We are not. So if the CLO market seizes up to any degree and there's a lot that's going to sit on balance sheets. And so I'm not predicting that the CLO market freezes up anytime soon. I'm just saying that the way we're originating these loans, we're either holding them on Walker & Dunlop's balance sheet or they're going into the joint venture with Blackstone. And so our funding mechanism here is far more stable than many of the competitors out there that are using the CLO markets to sell the paper.

Steven Delaney

Analyst

Yes. Good point. And my follow-up question would be on the 11% increase in the caps, the GSE caps from FHFA. I think, obviously, given the market, it had to go up. And it sounds ample, but then we have to caution ourselves that 50% of that must be affordable. So I'm wondering if we're not going to get into a situation where Freddie and Fannie fill up on the large loan segment there and borrowers are going to have to look elsewhere and -- whether that's the private CMBS market or whatever. It would seem to me that the GSEs -- that FHFA may be more flexible on the affordable if there's a market demand. But your thoughts on whether the FHFA would consider increase in the caps midyear if there was tremendous demand and whether that -- any increase might benefit the larger market as well?

William Walker

Analyst

Sure, Steve. So 2 quick things on that. One is, if we didn't have other capital sources to do our business and if all of our business was done with the big, what I call, brass and glass owner developers in major cities that are doing A class multifamily, I think what you just outlined would be a reasonably concerning scenario. The bottom line on it is, is that W&D, a, has lots of other capital solutions to meet the needs of the brass and glass borrowers, and the second thing to it is that, that's not our traditional client base nor the types of properties that we fund. As I mentioned in my comments, we've done $8 billion of affordable lending in 2021 alone, alone just this year. And so the affordable space is a space that we've done a tremendous amount of lending in. And so as the caps on the GSEs are focused increasingly on affordable, a, we have a client base that's focused there; b, we have a very strong track record; and C, we just made the largest acquisition in our company's history to partner and bring Alliant into Walker & Dunlop to further attack the affordable industry. And you have to keep in mind of the fact that Alliant has partnerships in all of their developments with every major affordable developer and owner in the country. So not only is Alliant great to us that we have all the deal flow that Alliant has that's going to come out that we will either be able to refinance or sell, but beyond that, they're going to introduce us to a whole client base, many of whom we've never met before. And so clearly, we want as much flexibility for the agencies as possible to continue to meet all the needs of the market, not just the affordable part of the market. But with that said, an expanded overall cap with the percentage that they have focused on affordability, I think, plays very well into Walker & Dunlop and our strengths and our client base.

Steven Delaney

Analyst

Yes. And as you pursue your affordable initiatives, are you doing any work to try to explore the single-family rental market or the build-to-rent market apart from agency type executions?

William Walker

Analyst

Very much so. We have a dedicated team on SFR, BFR. I will tell you that having Zelman at Walker & Dunlop has been a huge help to us as it relates to all the research that they are doing in both single-family, SFR, BFR as well as multifamily, to be able to, if you will, analyze these 2 markets that have come together. As you well know, Steve, the single-family market and the multifamily market have basically been 2 different worlds forever. To give you an example of that, at Fannie Mae, as you can imagine, I have personal relationships with tens of people, hundreds of people on the multifamily side, and other than the CEO of Fannie Mae, I know almost nobody on the single-family side. It's that kind of bifurcated. SFR, BFR brings these 2 worlds together. It brings Lennar from the single-family side in the SFR, BFR space and it brings lots of multifamily developers into the SFR, BFR space. And so the melding of these 2 worlds is really exciting and to have the relationships and research that Zelman has developed over so many years has been a real value-add there. And then our team is doing deal flow and research that I know for a fact from a number of very, very large players in this space is very, very innovative and at a level that is far above the competition. And so very pleased with what we're seeing in the SFR, BFR space and the amount of financing we're doing there. And by the way, just one quick thing. We're also doing sales in the SFR, BFR space. So the team we have here in Denver, they're listing a BFR asset right now. And so we are also in the investment sales space and the BFR in that vertical, if you will.

Steven Delaney

Analyst

Everyone stay well.

William Walker

Analyst

Thanks, Steve.

Kelsey Duffey

Operator

Thanks, Steve. We have no further questions at this time. So I will turn the call back over to Willy for concluding remarks.

William Walker

Analyst

Great. Appreciate the questions from the analysts. I appreciate everyone joining us today. As I think it was Henry who said -- his words, "Amazing quarter." Really great work by everyone on the W&D team. Thrilled at all of the momentum we have gained, the strategy we put in place and the execution we're getting against that strategy. Steve, thanks to you and your team. Kelsey, thanks to you. Great seeing both of you in California for our Board meetings and strategy meetings this week. And I wish everyone on this call a very, very happy Thursday and a great end to the week, and thanks again for joining us this morning. Have a great one.

Stephen Theobald

Analyst

Thanks all.