Willy Walker
Analyst · JMP Securities. Please go ahead
Thank you, Steve. We established a vision of creating the premier commercial real estate finance firm in the United States when we went public in 2010 and the financial results Steve just discussed reflect dramatic progress towards achieving that goal. We have consistently established annual financial, operational and strategic goals and executed upon them exceptionally well. As slide 5 shows, since our IPO the compound annual growth rate of all of our major financial metrics have exceeded 30%. And investors in d Walker & Dunlop's IPO have seen their stock price increase at a compound annual growth rate of 21%, which were not as dramatic as our financial performance is still exceptionally strong. What excites us the most is that the team we have built, the infrastructure we have invested in, the brand we have cultivated, and the clients we have pleased, create momentum and opportunities to continue growing Walker & Dunlop's at an impressive rate. We stated in our first earnings call of 2016 that we expected to have a slow Q1, but that we would grow earnings per share by double-digits for the year. Growing earnings-per-share 38% year on year is likely more than what most people think of as double-digit growth. But investors in W&D need to understand that we expect to grow earnings per share by over 10% every year. We have grown EPS at a 37% compound annual growth rate since going public and given the addressable market and W&Ds defendable and growing market position, there is no reason to expect anything below 10% earnings growth for this company until we see a material change in the macro economy or the team we have assembled at W%D. At the beginning of last year, we also established the following goals, exceed $0.5 billion in revenues, return mid-teens, return on equity, managed to a mid-20s operating margin and grow our sales team to 120 sales professionals. We far surpassed each of those goals generating $575 million in revenues, 21% return on equity, 32% operating margin and reaching 125 sales professionals. That growth is impressive on its own, but it is even more impressive during a year in which the commercial real estate financing market is projected to have been up by only 2% to $515 billion and the multifamily financing market is projected to have grown only 13% to $282 billion. Our recent growth has been among the highest in the industry because of our client base, team of financing professionals, business model and focus. As you can see on slide six, while we have benefited from a growing commercial real estate financing market, we have not been dependent upon it. Over the past three years, as our business has scaled, we have grown faster than the market and while macro trends are important Walker & Dunlop is a high-growth company with a defendable market position that is in no way managing its business to rise and fall with macro tides. In 2016, we originated $16.7 billion of loans, a record and nearly doubled the $8.4 billion we originated in 2013. That’s a compound annual growth rate twice that of the commercial real estate financing market over that three-year period. We continue to invest in growing our loan origination platform last year through a combination of acquisitions, recruiting and internal promotions. We finished the year with 125 sales professionals, ahead of our goal of 120 and expect to add 16 mortgage bankers through the acquisition of Deerwood real estate capital last week. Two things are noteworthy about the addition to our sales force over the past year. First, most of the bankers and brokers we added did not materially contribute to our 2016 performance. So their impact on our growth is yet to come. And second, as we have added fantastic loan originators across the country, their ability to sell our GSE and HUD loan products is dramatic, making them more effective bankers and brokers and impacting Walker & Dunlop's financial results for the better. Walker & Dunlop finished 2016 as Fannie Mae's second-largest lender, Freddie Mac's third-largest seller servicer, and a top 10 HUD originator. Our market position with the GSEs and HUD is extremely strong and only grow stronger as we continue adding loan originators and brokers to our platform. As we have grown transaction volumes and revenues, our costs have not inflated, even with the significant investments we have made in sales professionals. For context, while we have grown loan originations at twice the rate of the market over the past three years, our operating margin has expanded from 23% in 2014 to 32% this past year. Revenue growth and margin expansion have produced a 44% compound annual growth rate for EPS over that same three-year period. We will continue to grow dramatically in 2017, as slide 7 shows, Freddie Mac projects $300 billion of multifamily financing activity in 2017, up from an expected $282 billion in 2016. There is still a huge amount of dry powder sitting with private equity firms that need to be invested in commercial real estate, which according to pre-Quinn [ph] as of November 2016, there was $239 billion of total capital waiting to be invested globally, up from $210 billion in December of 2015 with $100 billion targeted towards the United States. Multifamily remains the largest, most stable and most desirable commercial real estate asset class for institutional investors. Second, demand for multifamily housing continues to grow. Construction has been active over the past couple of years and that new supply will need to be absorbed in 2017 and 2018. However, there is still a housing supply shortage and with rising interest rates, the ability for average Americans to own a single-family home will only get more difficult. As well, there are 83 million millennial's, the nation's largest population cohort who will drive demand for multifamily housing over the coming decade. We expect the multifamily financing market to be extremely active between now and 2020, which presents a great opportunity for our business, given our strong market position and exceptional team of financing professionals. Our business plan for the next four years includes three major components, continued growth of our debt financing and investment sales platforms, dramatically scaling our servicing portfolio and building an asset management business. If we execute on our growth initiatives in each of these areas, we will generate over $1 billion in revenues by the end of 2020. Let me walk through each of these initiatives and how they will contribute incremental revenues to achieving $1 billion. We will continue to add bankers and brokers to our platform targeting 15 to 25 per year. They should increase our annual transaction volumes from $19 billion today to between $30 billion and $35 billion by 2020, adding an additional $100 million to $150 million of mortgage banking revenues. As transaction volume scale to that level, our servicing portfolio will grow commensurately. We only have a $11 billion of scheduled loan maturities in our servicing portfolio over the next four years. So by originating between $19 billion and $35 billion of loans over year and limited runoff in the servicing portfolio, we have a very clear path to growing the portfolio to well over $100 billion by 2020. At that size, the servicing portfolio will generate an additional $125 million to $175 million of incremental revenues on an annual basis. To achieve our goal of becoming the premier commercial real estate finance firm in the United States, we need to continue to expand our product offering to meet the increasing and evolving needs of our customers. That is why the asset management business is key to our future growth. We see a need to provide our customers with preferred equity, mezzanine debt, construction loans, and bridge loans over the coming years, as the commercial real estate industry reacts to a revolving economy. To date, we have solved for our customers financing needs by using our balance sheet or brokering the financing off to another source of capital. We want to control that capital and generate the origination fees, interest income and asset management fees that come from a scaled asset management business. We have made significant progress towards forming our first joint venture in this space and hope to have something to announce this quarter. It is likely that the original collateral to go into that joint venture or some of the interim loans sitting on our balance sheet today. We have originated over $1 billion of interim loans in the last four years without a single credit loss and this joint venture will allow us to do even more lending with similar origination and underwriting standards, but off Walker & Dunlop's off-balance sheet. This will be the perfect starting point to building an asset management business, but by the end of 2020 we'll hopefully have $8 billion to $10 billion of assets under management and generate $80 million to $100 million in revenues. To grow a business of that size in the next four years, we will certainly need to be acquisitive, similar to the growth path we have taken to date with our core business. In summary, if we execute on this business plan in the next four years, we will add $100 to $150 million in mortgage banking revenues, a $125 million to $175 million in servicing fees and $80 million to $100 million in asset management fees, which at the high end of the ranges and along with the natural growth in other areas of our business, such as interest income, and escrow earnings would get us to over $1 billion in revenues by the end of 2020 with the same outstanding bottom line performance our business model is built to generate. 2016 was an incredible year, where our scale and business model combined to produce incredible results. I cannot thank and congratulate my colleagues at Walker & Dunlop enough for producing such outstanding results. We continue to raise the bar on ourselves and I am impressed and deeply appreciative of the determination and skill by which our team continually takes our business to the next level. We have the brand, the clients and the market opportunity to continue scaling this business going forward. Our mission of building the premier commercial real estate finance company in the United States will be achieved by continuing to provide outstanding results for our clients, our investors and our employees. I'd like to thank everyone for joining us on the call this morning. And with that, I'd like to turn the call over the operator for any questions.