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Walker & Dunlop, Inc. (WD)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 12, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Walker & Dunlop’s fourth quarter and full year 2014 earnings conference call and webcast. Hosting the call today from Walker and Dunlop is Willie Walker, Chairman and CEO. He is joined by Steve Theobald, Chief Financial Officer and Claire Harvey, Vice President of Investor Relations. Today’s call is being recorded and will be available for replay beginning at 11:30 AM Eastern Standard time. The dial in number for the replay is 800-753-0348. At this time all participants have been placed in a listen only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Claire Harvey.

Claire Harvey

Analyst

Thank you for joining the Walker & Dunlop fourth quarter and full year 2014 earnings call. I have with me this morning our Chairman and CEO Willie Walker and our CFO Steve Theobald. This call is being webcast live on our website and a recording will be available later this morning. Both our earnings press release and website provide details on accessing the archive call. This morning we posted our earnings release and presentation to the investor relations section of our website www.WalkerDunlop.com. These Slides serve as a reference point for some of what Willie and Steve will touch on this morning. Please note that we may reference certain non-GAAP financial metrics such as adjusted net income, adjusted diluted earnings per share, adjusted operating margin, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted total expenses, and adjusted income from operations during the course of this call. Please refer to the earnings release and presentation posted on our website for reconciliation of the GAAP and non GAAP financial metrics and related explanation. Investors are urged to carefully read the forward-looking statements language in our earnings release. Statements made on this call which are not historical facts may be deemed forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include statements regarding future financial operating results, involve risks, uncertainties, and contingencies many of which are beyond the control of Walker and Dunlop and which may cause actual results to differ materially from the anticipated results. Walker and Dunlop is under no obligation to update or alter our forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. We expressly disclaim any obligation to do so. More detailed information about risk factors can be found in our reports on file with the SEC. With that, I will turn the call over to Willie.

William M. Walker

Analyst

We had an excellent finish to the year with one of the strongest quarters in our history. We generated $4.3 billion of transaction volumes in the fourth quarter 2014 with almost $3 billion executed with the GSEs. Our fourth quarter 2014 volumes increased just under $2 billion from the year ago quarter or 83% which drove revenues of $113 million on the quarter, up 32% over the fourth quarter last year. The combination of strong revenue growth and expense management produced net income of $16.3 million up 42% over last year cumulating in $0.50 of diluted earnings per share. Our strong finish turned 2014 into an exceptional year. We grew our annual origination volume for the sixth consecutive year and established a new benchmark by originating $11.4 billion of commercial real estate loans, 35% growth over 2013 and a compound annual growth rate of 38% since going public in 2010. Our record transaction volumes generated $361 million in total revenues, up 13% over 2013 and $51.7 million of adjusted net income or $1.59 per diluted share, an increase of 24%. Finally, adjusted EBITDA grew to $84.8 million up a dramatic 49% over 2013. Steve will go into more detail on our financials, but I’d like to simply say that our Q4 and full year 2014 results reflect the power and potential of the team and platform we have built at Walker and Dunlop. We started scaling this company in the depths of the financial crisis and today our customers and shareholders are benefitting from the scale, brand, and corporate culture of excellence we have built. The business environment today is one of the strongest we have seen in years. Interest rates are extremely low, commercial loan refinancing volumes are accelerating, and commercial real estate assets are attracting capital from both…

Stephen P. Theobald

Analyst

We had an incredibly strong finish to the year, and as Willie mentioned, we achieved record revenues and originations for both the fourth quarter and the full year 2014. As you can see on Slide 13, the strong second half of the year and fourth quarter in particular, drove year-over-year improvements in our adjusted operating margin which was 24% for the quarter compared to 21% in the prior year quarter and in our return on equity which on an annualized basis was over 15% in the fourth quarter compared to 11% in the fourth quarter of 2013. For the year, operating margin of 23% was in line with our target range while our return on equity of 12.8% is just shy of our long term goal of low to mid-teens. Turning now to Slide 14, we also achieved significant growth in another key metric, adjusted EBITDA which grew to just under $85 in 2014, a 49% increase over 2013. The growth in adjusted EBITDA was due to higher operating income with a higher mix of revenues coming from cash revenue sources rather than non-cash gains attributable to mortgage servicing rights. The record origination volumes during the fourth quarter helped fuel the 32% increase in total revenues quarter-over-quarter resulting in our highest quarterly revenue ever of $112.6 million. As outlined on Slide 15, we generated increased revenues in every category with origination fees up 28%, MSRs up 50%, servicing fees up 10%, net interest income up 122%, and other revenues up 20% from the same quarter last year. For the full year, revenues were up 13% driven by the strong second half origination volumes, particularly the increase in Fannie and Freddie production. I will provide a little more detail on our gain on sale margins, servicing fees, and net interest in…

William M. Walker

Analyst

2014 was an extremely successful year for our company by almost all measures. We accomplished a great deal that positions us well for the same success in our industry and in creating value for our shareholders. We entered 2014 with the goal of maintaining our market leadership position as a multifamily lender, expanding our sales force, and deploying the $170 million of capital on our balance sheet following the raising of term debt in December 2013. Month-by-month, we did just that. In February, we opened a new office in Tampa Florida. In March we repurchased all of Credit Suisse’s 2.4 million shares eliminating an investor overhang from our stock. In June, we opened a new office in Charlotte North Carolina and launched or CMBS conduit in New York. In July, we saw our servicing portfolio surpass the $40 billion mark. In August, we added origination talent in Tampa and Boston. In September, we added origination talent in our CMBS platform. In November, we acquired Johnston capital and by the end of the year we had originated $11.4 billion of loans, grown our market share with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, deployed $44 million of capital on balance sheet for interim loans, increased our earnings per share by 24%, and saw our share price increase 8.5% on the year. I’d like to talk for a moment about our shareholder returns and stock price. As the CEO and second largest shareholder in Walker and Dunlop, I take Walker and Dunlop share appreciation very seriously. As both Steve and I just discussed, we repurchased 2.4 million shares from Credit Suisse in March of last year. We felt that our stock was significantly undervalued at a trailing 12 pe of 12.8 times and we repurchased all of CS’ shares at $14.50 which has generated…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Bose George – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

Bose George

Analyst

First, on the gain on sale margin trends, you guys noted that it’s largely on the mix shift, just in thinking about how that moves next year, it looks like Freddie Mac had a huge increase in their volume in the fourth quarter so it seems like that might have disproportionately impacted it. So if Freddie Mac is better spaced out next year, does it suggest that the blended margin ends up being higher than you guys did this quarter?

William M. Walker

Analyst

Fannie and Freddie both go in and out of the markets at various times during the year and then it’s very clear that we had an extremely strong Q4 with Freddie. We also had a very strong Q4 with Fannie but relatively speaking did more with Freddie for the first time ever. In Q1 right now I would say if you look out at the marketplace Freddie is winning more than Fannie, but as always happens, the two of them sort of enter and exit the markets at various times so it’s very hard to sort of project what every quarter will be like and whether the volumes of Fannie or Freddie go up or down so it’s hard to project forward. I would say that we have a lot of momentum with Freddie Mac right now. As the Slide that we pointed to in the call shows, we’ve had outstanding growth with Freddie over the past couple of years and gained lots and lots of market share and so I would just say that I think that that would probably continue and as a result of that, they will become an increasing percentage of our overall origination volumes and their business on an MSR basis, as you well know, is less MSR rich I guess you’d say, than a Fannie Mae loan.

Bose George

Analyst

Then just on your expectations for the $65 billion to $70 billion for the GSE production this year, the number for 2014 was that in the high 50s of it looks like 20%ish growth potentially for them?

William M. Walker

Analyst

Freddie had a cap of $25.8 billion, Fannie had a cap of $30 billion in 2014 so if you look at the $65 million to $70 million we put forth, yes off of what they had in the cap. But importantly, in 2014 both of them had the same opportunity to originate as much in small loans, affordable loans, and manufactured housing loans as they wanted and those loans wouldn’t count against the cap. So as you see in Freddie Mac’s numbers, they had a cap of $25.8 billion but they did $28.3 billion. The reason they did $28.3 billion is because the small loans, affordable loans, and manufactured loans didn’t count against the cap and therefore they could blow through the cap. Fannie has the exact same opportunity but didn’t exceed its cap so it’s our expectation given with the amount of flow business that we’re seeing in the market or market rate, plus their focus on specialty products of small loans, manufactured loans, and affordable loans, that they will both exceed their caps in 2015.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Brandon Dobell – William Blair & Company.

Brandon Dobell

Analyst

I just want to maybe start with a couple of things towards the end of the presentation. Steve, given you’ve got kind of two times debt in term of leverage, how much more capital would you be okay with deploying? Is there a leverage number that we should think about where you start to get uncomfortable with the amount or does it kind of depend on what kind of capital or into what kind of opportunity that capital is deployed?

Stephen P. Theobald

Analyst

From our perspective I think if you go back to when we did the original term loan transaction back in December of 2013 our trailing 12 month EBITDA was somewhere in the $50 million range which translated to just under a four times EBITDA level. We’re a DD- rated company and we’d like to stay at least at that level if not higher and so I think four is probably a natural cap on that. Obviously, with $84 million of EBITDA in 2014 that would be substantially more debt than what we’ve got on the balance sheet right now at four times.

Brandon Dobell

Analyst

On the servicing portfolio, the gross dollars added this quarter were pretty fantastic. Maybe a sense of those dollars added, what does that look like from an average servicing fee? It feels like most of them are prepayment protected except for the Johnson dollars that were added. I’m just trying to get a sense of that leading edge of growth in the servicing portfolio, what does that look like relative to the existing base in terms of how you think about risk, attractiveness, fees, visibility, those kinds of things?

Stephen P. Theobald

Analyst

Basically what got added in the year was pretty much in line with our ongoing average servicing fee when you blend it all together, so really not much change from the standpoint of what’s going into the portfolio. As Willie mentioned, what’s coming out of the portfolio over the next few years is actually coming out at less than our average servicing fee, at least with respect to scheduled maturities based on the business that was done back in ’05, ’06, ’07 timeframe. That business was coming on at lower servicing fees so I think 13 basis points it the average of servicing fees on the loans that are maturing over the next three years. Right now we’re still putting in 24 basis points of business.

Brandon Dobell

Analyst

Then shifting over to the gain on sale margin, there’s some mix issues both in terms of product as well as capital provider. Given the amount of business out there to do especially, with that charge you referenced about refinancing opportunities and how competitive both the agencies are being with each other as well as their capital sources, how do we think about the 2015 trajectory on gain on sale margin given your comments about expectations for strong origination growth? Will we continue to see these things slide at the same pace? Is there a floor just give where the mix is probably going to shift to in ’15 that we should think about?

William M. Walker

Analyst

I think there are a couple of things that have to be kept in mind. The first one is that we’re going to originate loans and go to the most appropriate execution for that loan and what we are seeing in the market today is exactly what we knew would happen. Capital comes back in, competition drives deal-by-deal margins down and the way you, if you will, combat that is to grow your revenues, grow your origination volumes, and manage your costs very well and that’s exactly what we did in 2014 and particularly in Q4. I think there’s quite a bit focus on oh loan-by-loan we have margin compression. At the end of the day if you look at Q4 in 2014 what we did effectively was grow the topline and manage cost to be able to have margin expansion on the year at the operating and the net income level. We’ll continue to do just that. I think the other thing if you look at it as it relates to us versus a number of our competitors and you cover a number of them, you look at the overall profitability and operating margin of our business and comp us against many of the other firms, we still have in a number of instances, 600 to 700 basis points of additional margin in our business versus the pure brokerage competitors today. So, as much as we’re very focused on a deal-by-deal what we make, I think Steve went through very clearly the mix shift of doing larger loans and then also doing variable rate loans, and the variable rate loans actually is a fantastic story because on the variable rate loans A) we’ve got products that are actually winning where two years ago Fannie and Freddie didn’t have variable rate products that were going to win. So A) we’re thrilled that we’re winning them. Second of all, we’re only booking MSRs typically on a five or seven year floater for two years, so if those loans stay on our books for longer than two years, the servicing income that comes into us is not used to amortize a mortgage servicing right, it all comes into cash, so if they stay on over two years, we get pure cash flow into the company. The other issue with it is, is on those floaters we have the opportunity to refinance them in a very short period of time. So, if they come back to us in year three and year four and say, “We need to redo this,” we have another bite at the apple. As much as it has what appears to be somewhat of a negative effect on our MSRs today, it actually is a huge business opportunity for us and I would back up to the previous comment which is that we are thrilled to be winning this business where two years ago we were not.

Brandon Dobell

Analyst

The segue question off of that was giving your comments about the right operating margin range or target operating margin range, it doesn’t seem like there’s any change to that with the lower fees, it’s just the cost structure is going to be matched up to how that fee trajectory looks? Is that a fair way to describe it right now?

William M. Walker

Analyst

That is exactly the punch line and that is exactly how we’re managing the business. There’s no way other than doing what we’re doing to be able to deal with a highly competitive market environment. That’s just the way you deal with it, you grow revenues and you manage costs and at the end of the day it’s our responsibility to continue to maintain operating margins or grow them and continue to increase earnings per share.

Stephen P. Theobald

Analyst

I also think the other dynamic there within the overall origination mix is A) we have a lot more feet on the street in the capital market space that we had during the year with the Johnson Capital folks coming in at the end of 2014. Plus, if you look at the wave of maturities, a lot of that wave is non-multifamily commercial real estate which is what that team is going to be going after. All things being equal, while we’re certainly intending to grow all of our executions, there’s an outsized opportunity to grow in the brokerage space which is going to drive the overall margin down, but to Willie’s point, from an operating margin perspective that is a 100% scale business, there’s very little in the way of fixed costs and for us to expand that business doesn’t require a bunch more costs or investment to process. We don’t underwrite it, we don’t close it so the more we do the better off we are at the end of the day from an overall operating margin standpoint.

Brandon Dobell

Analyst

The final one for me, it sounds like you’re pretty confident that Q1 originations are going to be up year-on-year. Maybe a little more color there, I know there’s an impact on Johnson but it’s relatively small compared to the overall origination pipeline so maybe there’s a little more color on how much we should expect it to be up on a gross basis but also an organic basis?

William M. Walker

Analyst

As you know, we’re not giving guidance and so I won’t give you a number of any type of growth off of last year. I think what we’re seeing and what we expect to see in the year is that, as I said, a return to Q2 and Q4 being the strongest quarters of the year from a financing activity and then one and three being the lower. But with that said as you can see both in our Q4 activity and what we’re seeing in the market today given the amount of refinancing activity that is going on, volumes will be up Q1-over-Q1. That’s the color we’re giving on it but I would just say as both Steve and I said in our prepared remarks, there’s a lot of activity in the market today and a year ago right now you may recall, there was almost no activity in the markets either from refinancing or from an investment sales standpoint and so it is quite a different mid-February 2015 from where the overall market was in 2014.

Stephen P. Theobald

Analyst

Think about it a little bit, if you go back to Q4 of ’13 we ended the year with not a lot of momentum because the agencies had been pulling back, they had a flurry of activity and that led to frankly, a pretty slow first quarter last year and the score card didn’t come out until May. I would expect – we had a lot more momentum obviously, going into the first quarter of this year.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Jason Stewart – Compass Point.

Jason Stewart

Analyst

I wanted to follow up on Willie, your comment on margin on a loan-by-loan basis. If you held channel six floating constant, would there be any margin compression?

William M. Walker

Analyst

On a loan-by-loan basis what we’ve looked at, no. In other words, if you look at a Fannie Mae tier two loan at on the smaller loan size $15 million deal, there has been very, very little margin compression from a servicing fee standpoint. What we’ve seen is we have grown, therefore we’re doing larger loans. We have done more floating rate business which I just talked to Brandon about the difference in the way we book MSRs on that and then there’s the mix shift from doing more with Freddie Mac which just from an MSR booking standpoint we book lower MSRs on our Freddie business because we don’t take risks on those loans, and then more on the brokerage channel which is all in the diversification of Walker and Dunlop’s origination platform. Clearly, there are certain deals where, go back to the previous example I said, it’s a $15 million tier two loan with Fannie Mae, where three years ago there were very few capital sources out there, the servicing fees were richer because there just wasn’t the competitive bid. That has come in but what we have seen so far does not cause us, as far as compression, it’s still on a loan-by-loan basis with Fannie Mae, we have not seen dramatic difference other than in the mix and the size of the loans and the type of loan as far as variable rate versus fixed rate.

Jason Stewart

Analyst

How much of the decline in Freddie’s fixed business or increase in floating business in the fourth quarter do you think was in response to them trying to get to their cap in dealing with that drop in interest rates?

A - William M. Walker

Analyst

I don’t think it’s them getting to their cap, I think it’s the fact that borrowers saw rates continue to fall and they said, “I will take advantage of this.” There were plenty of borrowers throughout 2014 who sat there and said, “Okay, the fed is going to raise, the fed is going to raise, I might want to jump on fixed rate.” Then all of a sudden, as you accurately say, rates continued to go down and I think many borrowers said, “Why don’t I go with a three or five year floating rate instrument, I don’t think rates are going to move that quickly and if they do I can always,” – the variable rate instrument has a year lock out and then from there it’s open to prepayment with a 1% penalty and so it’s a very flexible instrument and so a lot of borrowers said, “I want to go float.” As I said in my comment to Bose, the beauty of it is that in 2013 when the banks were out there – Fannie and Freddie didn’t have a floating rate product that could compete with the banks and in 2014 they did and we won. That big growth in floating rate product for us is a huge win because we won the deals and not only did we win the deals, we got another bite at the apple when they come back around either for another floater or a fixed rate loan.

Stephen P. Theobald

Analyst

I think if you go to the Slide that we showed the mix of fixed and variable rate lending, it doesn’t show up that much but if you look at Q3 of 2013 there was a little bit of a spike in our variable rate mix, that was the quarter when the banks came in and basically took all the business away from the agencies because they weren’t competitive and couldn’t offer the same kind of floating rate product. That’s business we lost in 2013 and we won it in 2014.

Jason Stewart

Analyst

It just seems to me looking at these numbers that you’re holding onto the core business and your market share in the fixed product, but what you’re adding on the margin is just a different product that’s increasing volume and net/net that’s pushing your overall gain on sale down but your core margin by product doesn’t seem to be changing by much and I just wanted to make sure that my math was footing with what you guys were seeing. You can agree or disagree with that, otherwise I’ll move onto another one?

William M. Walker

Analyst

I would agree with that and I would just say to you that as the markets continue to – I mean, one of the things that is somewhat just a little bit on the side of that is in 2014. The real competition was between Fannie and Freddie and so we will see what happens in 2015 as it relates to other market participants. Right now in the multifamily world it is really a two horse race. Do conduits win deals? Yes. Do life insurance companies, did they start the year saying, “Low leverage class a properties we want to win.”? Certainly, and do banks come in on either construction loans or bridge/short term floaters and win, plenty of borrowers of ours have big relationships with banks and banks when they want to win will win. But I think generally speaking the agencies are extremely well positioned for another great year in 2015 and I would go back to what Steve said in his remarks which is that the FHFA score card came out earlier than we’ve ever seen it. It basically is business as usual for both Fannie and Freddie and that has both GSEs very focused and very excited about what they could do in 2015. I would add one other piece to the relationship between Fannie and Freddie which is Freddie is dead set on beating Fannie in 2015 to be the largest provider of capital in the multifamily market and Fannie is dead set on 2015 in maintaining its positioning as the largest provider of capital to the multifamily market. The competition between the two of them will be, I believe, quite fierce throughout the year which as one of the largest partners to both of them, I think positions Walker and Dunlop very well.

Jason Stewart

Analyst

I appreciate the estimate of the affordable/small loan balance market size, but is there any difference in your market share or your expectation for market share there versus the core market that’s subject to the cap?

William M. Walker

Analyst

In 2013 we were the third largest Fannie affordable lender and we didn’t get into their top three in 2014. In 2014 we were Freddie Mac’s number one very low income originator and we were also their largest manufactured housing originator and manufactured housing, if you will, a specialty product where Walker and Dunlop has fantastic client relationships and loan origination professionals who are completely expert in that space. As it relates to affordable very low income and manufactured housing, I would say that we’re very well positioned there. On the small loans you may recall that we exited the small loan business back in November of 2013. We were getting beaten by the banks. It’s a very distinct business model to what Walker and Dunlop does and as everyone can see from our 2014 numbers, we are growing in our average deal size not shrinking in our average deal size so for us to spend a huge amount of time running after $750,000 or $500,000 multifamily loan is just a very distinct business model. We have been approached by both GSEs to say, “Can you guys originate a lot of small loans for us,” and so far we have shied away from it because it is a very, very different business from what we do. But as it relates to affordable and manufactured housing, we have the relationships and access to deal flow to be a significant contributor to both Fannie and Freddie along those lines.

Operator

Operator

It appears we have no further questions at this time. I’ll now turn the call back over to Willie Walker for any additional or closing remarks.

William M. Walker

Analyst

Thank you every one for joining us this morning. I’d reiterate my thanks to all of my colleagues at W&D for a fantastic 2014 and we look forward to talking to many of you again throughout 2015. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

This does conclude today’s conference call. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.