Ronald J. Mittelstaedt
Analyst · Alex Ovshey of Goldman Sachs
Okay, thank you, Worthing. Revenue in Q1 was $449.9 million, up 19.5% over the prior-year period. As noted earlier, revenue met the upper end of our expectations, despite harsh winter weather conditions in multiple markets. Internal growth in the quarter was almost 1% broken down as follows: Positive 2.8% from core price; positive 0.4% from surcharges; negative 1.9%, volume; and negative 0.4% from recycling, intermodal and other services. Net pricing, or core price plus surcharges, exceeded 3% again this quarter and was 3.2% similar to Q4. Pricing growth for the full year remains on track to average about 3%. Volume growth in Q1 was negative 1.9%, an improvement over Q4 and slightly better than our outlook of negative 2% to negative 2.5% for the quarter due to better-than-expected landfill volumes more than offsetting the negative impact of harsh winter weather conditions in many markets. 2 items we have discussed on previous calls, namely our decision in early 2012 to turn away lower-priced volumes at our Chiquita Canyon landfill and the wrongful termination later in that year of a municipal contract in Madera, California that we are now litigating. These 2 accounted for about 65% of our volume loss in the period. Reported volume growth was also impacted by one less day in the comparative period. Year-over-year volume growth comparison should improve as we move through the year, simply due to when we anniversary such onetime items. We should start to see this trend in Q2 as we expect between a 75- and 100-basis-point sequential improvement in volume growth, compared to Q1. Volume growth could turn positive in Q3 and then likely be negative again in Q4 when we have to comp the benefit from Hurricane Sandy-related volumes in the prior year. We also note that continuing winter weather conditions in many states deep into April has delayed the onset of the typical seasonal increase in MSW activity in some of those markets. Landfill volumes on a tonnage basis in the first quarter adjusted for the impact of acquisitions and one less day period were up about 4% year-over-year. Year-over-year trends and disposal volumes improved throughout the quarter from up 2% in January to up 6% in March. All 3 solid waste streams increased year-over-year in the first quarter, as special waste volumes grew 10%, construction and demolition debris-related volumes rose 3% and MSW volumes were up 2%. This is the first quarter in which MSW volumes have been up since 2010. Revenue per role off pull increased about 2% in the first quarter. Roll-off pulls per day in Q1 were down about 1% year-over-year on a same-store basis and adjusted for one less day. We saw the strongest results in our Western region, where pulls per day were up again, as we had seen in Q4, an encouraging sign in markets where we benefit the most from returning volumes. In our central and eastern region, however, we continue to experience slight decreases year-over-year in pulls per day, mostly due to harsh winter weather conditions. Recycling, intermodal and other services was a negative 0.4% in the period due to year-over-year decreases in recycled commodity values, partially offset by an increase in our intermodal business. Proceeds from the sale of recycled commodities in the first quarter were 3.8% of consolidated revenue, down from 5% in the prior-year period. On a same-store basis, revenue from such activity declined $2.4 million or almost 13% year-over-year and at very high margins. This decrease resulted in about $0.01 year-over-year impact to EPS in the quarter. Prices for OCC, or Old Corrugated Containers, averaged about $132 per ton during the first quarter, down about 15% from the prior -- from the year-ago period and down 3% from Q4. If OCC holds around current pricing of about $140 per ton, we'd expect a modest headwind in Q2, then a tailwind in the second half of the year. As a reminder, OCC averaged about $145 per ton in the second quarter last year, then $117 per ton in the third quarter and $137 in the fourth quarter. Turning now to an update on E&P waste activity. On a reported basis, we handed a little more than 57 million of E&P-related waste throughout our network in the first quarter. As noted earlier, revenue per day from E&P waste increased about 12.5% from early January to late March. This is mostly due to a 30% increase in revenue per day in the Bakken over that same period, due primarily to seasonality. We were also successful in modifying our Bakken landfill permit earlier this month to significantly ramp solidification of more wet solids at the site. We've seen another 25% increase in revenue per day up in the Bakken during the first half of April, compared to the second half of March. In other permitting news, we recently received a permit to build a new E&P waste landfill in Oklahoma, but we'll likely delay construction at this time since we can gain operating leverage by utilizing 3 of our nearby MSW landfills that are permitted to accept such E&P waste. We continue working on permits for 2 other new landfills, one in the Eagle Ford and another in the Texas side of the Permian, which we believe could provide more meaningful contributions once the permits are received and the facility is operational. We'll provide periodic updates on these permitting efforts throughout the year. As discussed on our February call, we expect margins within the E&P waste to ramp during 2013. As drilling activity picks up, new facility start-up costs abate, and we begin to internalize or eliminate some activities that were once being outsourced. The adjusted EBITDA margin, before corporate overhead allocation for our E&P waste segment, was almost 45% in Q1, and we believe it will cross 50% during the second quarter. Regarding acquisition activity, as expected, 2013 is off to a slow start for closed transactions. As discussed on previous earnings calls, we believe many potential sellers tried to complete deals last year given the anticipated increase in tax rates at the end of 2012. Of course, we benefited from this trend last year, with a record amount of acquisition activity. That said, we continue to look at a number of acquisition opportunities. In fact, we have already reviewed and passed on transactions this year, totaling almost $150 million of revenue. Today's environment of higher tax rates and low reinvestment rates keep many sellers of quality businesses on the sideline. Life changing events continue to drive many of our transactions. We continue to believe that we will complete a traditional amount of acquisitions during 2013 and that most of this activity will occur later in the year and provide rollover growth into 2014. Let me now provide a quick update on the REIT MLP topic. As we have noted before, we believe our industry-leading free cash flow margin, together with prospects for higher cash taxes once bonus depreciation expires and the qualifying MLP ruling that R360 received last year for its E&P-related assets, might make a portion of our business attractive for MLP structure. We also believe the more predictable and recurring nature of revenue associated with some traditional landfills might provide for a more attractive valuation under an MLP structure. As such, we intend to pursue a private letter ruling later this year, to confirm whether some traditional landfill activity qualifies for MLP treatment. And now, I'd like to pass the call to Worthing to review more in depth the financial highlights in the first quarter, and provide you a detailed outlook for Q2.